Counting the Benefits

Jilin Province enjoys bustling trade with I the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)and four other Asia-Pacific economies,all of whom signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)agreement together with China last year,creating the largest free trade bloc in the world.     

区域全面经济伙伴关系协定对台湾的经济影响--基于价值链分析和GTAP政策模拟

2020年11月,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)正式签署,全球最大的自由贸易区应运而生。本文从传统贸易与价值链出发,阐述台湾与RCEP成员经贸关系和价值链联系,分析RCEP签署对台湾经济和贸易的影响,利用GTAP模型模拟RCEP关税削减对台湾岛内经济与产业的影响。结果显示:RCEP建立将导致台湾对外贸易与投资的转移,贸易条件恶化,从而对岛内各产业产出、经济增长、消费者福利带来负面冲击。同时,台湾通过后向联系参与全球价值链的低端产业将面临被替代的风险。     

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): the Chinese perspective

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was accepted by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as one among other pathfinders, for a comprehensive Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). Though the TPP negotiations do not include China at the moment, she has declared her interest in the TPP and is paying close attention to it. In fact, many question the likely success of the TPP with China's exclusion from it, given her prominence in the region. To provide insights for leveraging trade opportunities with the TPP economies, China's export potentials with the TPP are empirically tested and compared with those of alternative economic configurations in East Asia which China is a party to, namely the ASEAN+1, ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6. The empirical findings suggest that China's participation in the TPP will offer better market access for final goods, an important trade opportunity that is somewhat limited in partnerships through regional initiatives. Even then, the paper contends that the payoffs to China following the TPP deal remain intangible and at best speculative given the coverage (or substance) and depth of the agreement.     

中国与东盟贸易互补和贸易竞争分析

改革开放以来，中国和东盟的贸易发展迅速，尤其是近年来，中国加入WTO，双方自由贸易协议的签定，使中国与东盟贸易发展更是突飞猛进，发展前景非常乐观，但是也应看到在中国和东盟贸易中，既存在互补的一面，也存在竞争的一面，对此必须要有清醒的认识。同时中国与东盟存在各自的比较优势，中国与东盟应该采取措施发挥各自的比较优势，使双方贸易互补的一面得到扩大，同时使双方贸易竞争的一面在一定程度上得以消除，从而使双边贸易得到健康的发展。     

ASEAN–China Trade Flows: moving forward with ACFTA

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows amongst member countries. Demand and supply are deemed to have therefore become more China-centred. This paper looks at the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra-ASEAN trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (partner country). The key finding of the study is that China's trade association with the region increases intra-ASEAN exports. China is therefore the most practical choice for the ASEAN+1 FTA to initiate deeper trade integration within the region. China, as the ‘core’ country of the ACFTA can provide complementarities in the export performance of ASEAN.     

China's New Assertiveness in the South China Sea

China's new assertiveness in the South China Sea has arisen from the growth of its military power, its ‘triumphalism’ in the wake of the Western financial crisis and its heightened nationalism. The other littoral states of the South China Sea have been troubled by the opacity of Chinese politics and of the process of military decision-making amid a proliferation of apparently separately controlled maritime forces. The more active role being played by the United States in the region, in part as a response to Chinese activism, has troubled Beijing. While most of the ASEAN states have welcomed America as a hedge against growing Chinese power, their economies have become increasingly dependent upon China and they don't want to be a party to any potential conflict between these two giants. The problem is that there is no apparent resolution to what the Chinese call, in effect, these ‘indisputable disputes’.     

关于完善中国—东盟争端解决机制的立法思考

构建中国—东盟争端解决机制,对于加强东盟各国的贸易关系有重要意义。《中国—东盟争端解决机制协定》的签署,使解决贸易争端有了法律依据,但该协定在运用时尚存在诸多不足,需要进一步完善。为此,应当从立法上扩大主体的范围,建立一份专家名单,设立常设仲裁庭,增设仲裁裁决的复核程序,建立"跟随执行监督制度",增设贸易和投资纠纷预防机制,建立中国—东盟投资争端解决机制。     

Three Decades of Partnership

正The year 2021 marks the 30 th anniversary of the establishment of the dialogue partnership between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN). Over this period, cooperation between China and ASEAN countries has continuously progressed, turning both sides into strategically important players within the Asia-Pacific region.     

How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN states’ alignment behavior towards China

The extant literature on alignment behavior has focused primarily on the macro dimensions, i.e. the typology, manifestations and implications of states’ alignment choices vis-à-vis the great power(s). Relatively few studies have examined the micro aspects of alignment choices. This article attempts to fill in the gap by unpacking the constituent component of weaker states’ alignment decisions, with a focus on ASEAN states’ hedging behavior in the face of a rising China in the post-Cold War era. It contends that the enduring uncertainty at the systemic level has compelled the states to hedge by pursuing contradictory, mutually counteracting transactions of ‘returns-maximizing’ and ‘risk-contingency’ options, which seek to offset the potential drawbacks of one another, as a way to project a non-taking-sides stance while keeping their own fallback position at a time when the prospect of power structure is far from clear.     

北部湾( 广西) 经济区成为区域全面合作新增长极的分析

该文认为，北部湾（广西）经济区地处北部湾经济圈的中心位置，是中国走向东册、止向世界的重要门户，是促进中国与东益全面合作的重要桥梁和战略枢纽，是中国勺东盟全面合作的新增长檄．该文指出，作为后发展地区，其综合优势明显，战略地位突出，制约因素和面临亟待突破的瓶颈问题关键。在此基础上，围绕荜于北部湾（广西）经济区成为中国与东盟全面合作新增长极进行思考，并提出了对策建议。     

情势根本改变原则与条约法

因情势根本改变而终止条约的原则,是国际习惯法的规则,虽经《维也纳条约法公约》将其法典化,但对其适用条件的规定却极为严格。因此,论证条约的终止,除考虑缔约国的合理要求和国际社会秩序的稳定因素以外,对情势根本改变原则的解释,还当兼顾订立条约的目的,否则将丧失其法律意义。     

Rituals,Risks and Rivalries: China and ASEAN in the coming decades

This paper argues that Sino‐ASEAN relations, despite reassurances and determination by both sides to increase interactions and cooperation, have some remaining areas of contention and contestation. After its long isolation, self-imposed or otherwise, the PRC has been able to integrate itself successfully into the political life, economies, and security interests of the region. The PRC's market potentials, military capabilities and its enormous size have both excited and threatened the Southeast Asian states. While the Southeast Asian states have been willing to engage this emerging regional power, they are also wary of the potential risks when dealing with it. Increasing trade, investment, and cultural levels between the two regions have made both sides increasingly aware of the opportunities and challenges involved. The relationship is not without problems, although there is a general consensus that it is on a much better footing than in recent decades. The present developments of their relationships and in the next decade are analyzed under three categories: rituals, risks and rivalries.     

新阶段广西对外开放的现状与对策研究

近年来,广西加强对外开放工作,取得了瞩目的成就,但从横向比较来看,对外开放水平度还不高。作为中国面向东盟的前沿地带,连接我国中南、西南的重要区域的广西,深入实施对外开放战略具有重要的意义,应发挥地缘和资源优势。努力提高对外开放的质量和水平。新阶段广西对外开放的着力点应放在明确对外开放的重点、继续推进中国-东盟国际大通道建设、构建功能完善的开放型经济体系、深化以东盟为重点的国际旅游合作、充分发挥中国-东盟自由贸易区平台作用、加强人文交流等五个方面。     

浅析我国“十五”期间的国际经济环境

“十五”期间世界经济发展的特点是 :总体走势继续看好 ,稳定度提高 ;以信息、通讯、互联网技术为核心的高技术产业将成为世界经济增长的主导产业 ;世界经济由传统工业经济向知识经济转变 ,经济形态日趋知识化、高科技化 ;经济全球化速度加快 ,进一步推动世界经济的一体化进程 ,但南北差距拉大 ;经济区域化、集团化趋势更加明显 ,进一步推动世界经济的多极化 ;经济制度一体化、规范化程度提高 ,国际经济协调机制的作用将大大加强。     

广西建设沿海发展新一极的思考

2009年12月《国务院关于进一步促进广西经济社会发展的若干意见》,明确提出把广西建设成为我国国际区域经济合作新高地、沿海经济发展新的增长极及和谐稳定模范自治区。这标志着广西战略地位已经从国内区域性向国际战略性转变。文章论述了中央对建设广西沿海发展新一极采取的五个方面的政策,指出这些政策出台的背景是全面实施国家向南发展战略的需要和广西具有建设沿海发展新一极的有利条件以及边疆民族地区和谐稳定的需要,并对发展的关键环节进行了探讨。     

From Zero-sum Game to Positive-sum Game: why Beijing tolerates Pacific Island states' recognition of Taipei

The Pacific Islands region might be regarded as one of the most remote and politically least significant areas in the geopolitical and economic considerations of world giants. However, as the regional order of the Asia–Pacific changes rapidly, China has shown more eagerness to engage the island states. Interestingly, Beijing's former arch-rival Taipei still maintains, arguably, considerable influence over the region. This raises a question that is thought-provoking: why is this status quo tolerated by Beijing? Drawing on empirical sources in relation to communication between Beijing, Taipei and these island states, by focusing on how Beijing handles the South Pacific region in general and the six non-recognizing states in particular, this article attempts to tackle the question by distinguishing the difference in Beijing's mentality today from that of 30 or 40 years ago. It argues that the zero-sum mentality of fighting against Taipei in the region has now been replaced by a positive-sum assumption to engage Taipei, as well as the pan-Chinese community in the world, via the PIS, regardless of whether they establish formal ties with Beijing or not.     

Broadening the Concept of Security in East and Southeast Asia: the impact of the Asian financial crisis and the September 11 Incident

External threat plays a diminishing role in the foreign policies of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Some version of modernization diplomacy is pursued so that economic interests are accorded priority. It is in this context that they have gradually adopted comprehensive security and similar concepts. At the individual level, aspirations and security are also realized in the context of satisfactory economic development. At the international level, regional economic co-operation associated with market liberalization is perceived as an important means to maintain a peaceful external environment and to promote economic growth. The concept of security is thus both broadened and extended to link up the international, regime and individual levels. The Asian financial crisis exposed the contradictions between the developed countries of the West and the developing economies in the Asia–Pacific region; it also challenged the dominant domestic political coalitions in Southeast Asia based on existing development strategies. New alignments therefore have to be established within the Asia–Pacific region to ensure effective interest articulation within the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework, and the shaking of the foundation of the regional regimes produced varied responses ranging from defensive adjustment to offensive adjustment and fundamental economic restructuring. Values and aspirations on the part of individuals have to be redefined too. The threat of terrorism was first highlighted by the September 11 Incident, but terrorism in the region was largely rooted in domestic ethnic and socio-economic contradictions and exacerbated by economic difficulties in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. The threat of terrorism has in turn alerted the regional governments to the issues of radical Islam, the widening gap between the rich and poor and inter-ethnic relations, as well as to a whole range of non-traditional security issues. In short, comprehensive security must include good governance.     

中国-东盟关于新冠肺炎问题 特别外长会联合声明

我们,中华人民共和国和东南亚国家联盟成员国外长,于2020年2月20日在老挝万象举行中国-东盟关于新冠肺炎问题特别会议;注意到2020年2月14日发表的《关于共同应对新冠肺炎疫情的东盟主席声明》,关注新冠肺炎导致的呼吸系统疾病;认识到中国和东盟一直共同应对突发和重大挑战,形成守望相助、,患难与共的传统。     

The China–asean Free Trade Agreement And Taiwan

While China's move toward a FTA with ASEAN reflects Beijing's most recent foreign economic policy adjustment and represents a new stage in the nation's open-door policy, it inevitably produces significant impact on cross-Taiwan Straits relations. This recent development in China's foreign economic relations brings not only substantial psychological and real effects and pressure on Taiwan for its possible isolation and marginalization from the ongoing process of regional integration in East Asia, but also growing pressure exerted by the island's business community that fears being pushed into a disadvantageous position in competition with ASEAN companies in the ever expanding and lucrative market of the mainland. For strategic, diplomatic, and economic considerations in the face of this new challenge, Taiwan is pursuing counter-measures by searching for its own FTAs with other countries within and beyond the region.     

欧盟与东盟区域一体化发展模式之比较

区域化是当今世界的一个重要发展趋势。欧盟和东盟是当今世界发展最为引人注目的区域组织。它们的发展不仅对本地区的政治、经济产生了巨大的影响,同时,也在世界的经济发展和政治稳定中扮演着重要的角色。比较分析两大区域组织发展模式,有利于加深我国与它们的合作,推动各方的经济和政治的发展,以开创“共赢”的局面。