The Impossible Challenge of Deterring “Nuclear Terrorism” by Al Qaeda

Deterring Al Qaeda from using a nuclear weapon, should it acquire one, is a harder challenge than analysts have argued. Suggestions for “deterrence based on punishment” have severe limitations. Al Qaeda is not a state, has no clear command authority, and has no clear nuclear weapons–employment doctrine. Most analysts also ignore the dynamic of “crisis instability” (“use it or lose it”): should the West believe Al Qaeda has an improvised nuclear devise, it is unlikely (regardless of whether Al Qaeda leadership claimed the weapon would be held as a deterrent only) that the West would accept a mutually-assured-destruction relationship with the group. The West would hunt the weapon down, forcing Al Qaeda's hand. The best counter–Weapons of Mass Destruction–Nuclear Terrorism defense, therefore, is good counterinsurgency policy to starve it of recruits until the group dies.     

THE EDUCATION OF THE TREASURY: THE MEDIUMTERM FINANCIAL STRATEGY 1980–84

The first Thatcher government introduced an innovatory macro-economic plan – the medium-term financial strategy (MTFs) – in March 1980. It was the most notable example of how the Government sought to change the direction of post-war policy. This article traces the origins and formulation of the strategy, noting that it was Treasury-imposed, and monetarist in orientation. During its implementation however it was substantially modified. The phrase 'pragmatism and continuity' best describes this process. Aspects of macro-economic policy are introduced to develop this theme. There is clear evidence that the Treasury was 'educated' by the problems encountered: the objectives of the MTFS were not uniquely achievable simply because they were deliberately limited in scope. Nevertheless, the strategy has survived as a policy framework and freed from its monetarist dogma remains a useful means of co-ordinating objectives.     

The Soviet 1937–1938 provincial show trials revisted

I want to say briefly how the Shakhty affair was exposed and to whom we are indebted for the discovery of this Shakhty affair. We are indebted to com. Stalin... In 1927 I met with com. Stalin in Sochi. He, as usual, asked me how things were. I told him. In particular I told him about this affair [the ‘sabotage’ in industry]. He listened carefully and asked detailed questions about the affair. At the end of the conversation I said the following: ‘For me it is clear that we are dealing with people who are consciously undermining production, but it is not clear to me, who their leader is. Either it is the general staffs [of hostile powers], in particular the Polish general staff, or it is the firm which in the past owned these enterprises, and which has an interest in undermining production, i.e. the Belgian company’. I remember clearly that com. Stalin said to me, ‘When you finish your investigation, send the materials to the CC’. You yourselves will understand, that I reared up, like a war-horse.... [When I had completed my investigation] I sent the CC an overview of the Shakhty affair. E.V. Evdokimov     

The birth of a bill market

In the economic literature concerning the money and capital markets of less developed countries, one half‐truth has persisted, namely that L.D.C. governments face a long and difficult task if they attempt to create bill markets. This paper presents a startling bit of counterevidence from Colombian experience, where a functioning government bill market arose almost before the government was aware that it was issuing bills. The implication is clear: it is only difficult to establish bill markets when the effort consists of the attempted creation of an artificial demand for bills at unrealistic interest yields. Finally, it is argued that L.D.C. governments may not have been foolish in so long ignoring the virtues of functioning bill markets.     

Funding,Management, and Individual-Level Factors: What Factors Matter in Predicting Perceived Organizational Effectiveness?

Scholars have examined organizational effectiveness in state and federal government agencies to determine which factors matter. Their findings revealed that public organizational effectiveness is affected by environmental, human resource management, organizational, and individual-level factors. However, what is conspicuously absent is the impact funding has on organizational effectiveness. To further previous literature, this article examined agency funding levels as well as management and individual-level factors to determine the relationship these factors had on organizational effectiveness. In doing so, a model was developed to predict perceived organizational effectiveness, and it was tested on 330 United States government workers in the state of New York. The findings from the analysis were clear: perceived organizational effectiveness was impacted by employee perceptions regarding the level of funding the agencies were allocated. Additionally, the level of role ambiguity and employee participation in decision-making as well as employee job performance and public service motivation levels were also found to matter. The implications and limitations of these findings are discussed in the article.     

FOR LACK OF ANYTHING BETTER? INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND GLOBAL CORPORATE CODES

This paper analyses the two most important international programmes for the voluntary regulation of corporate behaviour: the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Corporations and the UN Global Compact. It argues that international organizations adopted them mostly for reasons of political feasibility: by imposing minimal constraints on constituents the codes circumvented the most pressing problems of political acceptability associated with standard setting. It finds no clear evidence, however, that the network solutions adopted are technically more effective than traditional forms of regulation. The paper concludes that while it is unlikely that corporate behaviour will change simply as a result of participation in these programmes, if the programmes increase their ability to consistently discriminate between good and bad performers, the resulting ‘soft’ sanctioning power has the potential to alter corporate behaviour in the long run.     

Left-wing authoritarianism is not a myth, but a worrisome reality. Evidence from 13 Eastern European countries

A sometimes heated debate between authoritarianism researchers takes place on the issue of authoritarianism on the left. Some researchers argue that authoritarianism is typical for right-wing political orientation while other researchers assert that authoritarianism can also be found at the left side of the political spectrum. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we aim to contribute to the ongoing discussion on left-wing authoritarianism. Using representative samples, the relationship between authoritarianism and political preferences is examined in 13 ex-communist Eastern European countries. Employing six different indicators of left-wing/communist political orientations make clear that, despite cross-national differences, left-wing authoritarianism is definitely not a myth in Eastern European countries. Second, it was aimed to survey whether authoritarian persons in Eastern European countries might be a possible threat for the transition to democracy. Based upon five items it was demonstrated that in general the Eastern European population seems to hold a positive opinion on democracy. However, it becomes also clear that authoritarian persons in the ex-communist countries are significantly less positive towards democracy.     

The Dynamics of Party-System Supply and Demand in Poland, 1997–2007. Cleavage Change or Shapeless Shifting?

The 2007 Polish general election confirmed a significant shift in patterns of elite political competition, as the inherited ‘regime divide’ was superseded by a ‘transition divide’ defined by the ‘liberal-orthodox’ model of post-communist reform. However, the existing literature on Polish voting behaviour lacks diachronic analyses of the changing relationships between structures, attitudes, party preferences and voting behaviour. This article seeks to fill that gap. It finds that there was no clear evidence of cleavage change over the period: there was more consistency than flux in preferences, and limited shifts in the influence of particular variables on voting behaviour.     

Framing Gov2.0: A Q-Methodological Study of Practitioners’ and Local Politicians’ Opinions

Abstract

Proponents of Gov2.0 claim that it offers the potential to improve the relationship between the citizen and state. Whether this potential can be realised depends in part on how new web-based technologies are implemented. Local government officials and politicians are important actors in this process, yet we know little about how they view Gov2.0. This paper applies Q-methodology to a sample of English local government actors to generate new data and fill this gap in our knowledge. Four frames of reference within this population are revealed: Sunlight on Government, Cautious Crowdsourcers, Gov1.0 and Platform Providers. The paper concludes that while there is general agreement that technology will be a driver of change, and that local government should adapt, there is no clear agreement as to the nature of reform.     

POLICY-MAKING AND THE SCOTTISH OFFICE: THE DESIGNATION OF CUMBERNAULD NEW TOWN

The role of the Scottish Office in policy-making has been subject to a number of interpretations. It is difficult to regard it as having its own reserved policy spheres but it is clear that in certain circumstances it has the ability to forge its own policy lines. In the 1950s, in contradiction to the stated policy of the then Conservative Government. the Scottish Office was able to secure the designation of a new town at Cumbernauld. The main impetus for this policy came from the civil servants in the Department of Health for Scotland, seeking to preserve the philosophy of the 1946 Clyde Valley Plan. The case study throws considerable light on the bargaining process within government, the role of the secretary of state as spokesman for Scottish interests and the way in which the Scottish Office can gain Cabinet approval for its proposals.     

The European Neighbourhood Policy: Conditionality Revisited for the EU's Eastern Neighbours

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) is modelled on the institutional and procedural experience of the EU's eastward enlargement, although it explicitly excludes a membership perspective. It thus aims to define an alternative incentive for domestic reform in neighbouring countries, referred to as ‘a stake in the internal market’. This article suggests that the ENP amounts to a form of ‘conditionality-lite’ for non-candidate countries. Within the ENP the key defining elements of conditionality—clear incentive and enforcement structures—are vague for both the EU and its neighbouring countries. Thus, the ENP is conceptually and empirically weak when measured against a simple, rationalist conditionality model. In line with the alternative understanding of conditionality as a process rather than a clear-cut variable, the main function of the ENP is twofold: it provides an external reference point which domestic political actors in the ENP countries can choose to utilise when it fits their agenda (both pro-EU or anti-EU); and a loose framework for socialisation. This process of socialisation involves both the EU and the ENP countries. Through an analysis of the ENP process in Ukraine and Moldova it concludes that while the ENP tries to prevent a repeat of the EU's ‘rhetorical entrapment’ in further eastward enlargement, it paradoxically paves the way for a ‘procedural entrapment’ in ENP countries that harbour membership aspirations and provides a momentum, though not a guarantee, for conflict resolution.     

"Globalization Theory": Yesterday's Fad or More Lively than Ever?

This article argues that while globalization theory is far from being past its most productive phase, as some of its critics claim, it does exhibit a number of shortcomings, particularly when it comes to identifying a clear point of reference for what is taken to be globalized and applying theoretical concepts developed in the analysis of national societies to a global level. This article argues that globalization theory stands on solid ground in that globalization theory has developed four strands of research, which are fairly well developed and which distinguish it as a separate field of inquiry, these four strands being the understanding of globalization as inherently varied globalization, global governance research, global history, and global/world society research. It argues that in order to redress some of the problems of globalization theory, it is necessary to build on these four strands and merge them with the traditional sociological concepts of functional differentiation and rationalization as well as with insights from complexity theories.     

From Victimization to Criminalization: General Strain Theory and the Relationship Between Poly-victimization and Delinquency

Although it is well established that victimization and delinquency are related, it is not clear how this relationship works, and victims and offenders are still often studied and treated as two distinct groups. General strain theory views victimization as a form of injustice, which can give rise to anger and eventually lead to delinquency. The authors examine victimization, in particular polyvictimization, as a criminogenic factor. Based on a sample of 1,400 youths 12–17 years old in Quebec (Canada), they examine polyvictimization in relation to delinquency as well as negative emotions that can result from victimization namely anger, depression, and posttraumatic stress. The findings show support for general strain theory and highlight the importance of anger for the relationship between victimization and juvenile delinquency.     

Strengthening Public Administration Research: Identifying Boundaries and Horizons

Since the early days of the field, public administration research has been a work in progress. Many authors have struggled to find the proper role of research in the field. Interest in the topic intensified over the last couple of decades, as a perception developed that the quality and usefulness of work had fallen decidedly behind other academic disciplines. While a rich literature has developed debating the merits of public administration research, the resulting product does not provide a clear direction for reform-minded researchers to follow. In this article, we seek to organize this material in ways that will make it more useful. Our analysis identifies hard and soft barriers preventing progress and examines three dilemmas facing public administration researchers: theoretical versus conceptual research, academically sophisticated methods versus widely accessible methods, and an academic versus a practitioner focus. Through our discussion of these dilemmas, we seek to clarify the issues facing researchers and help them make more informed choices.     

Development's Paradox: is Washington DC a Third World city?

This article examines an urban centre in the heart of the First World through a critical development lens. It contends that traits of the Third World entail certain characteristics which remain consequential as axes of analysis for a variety of economic, political and geographic settings, including new applications in contexts that are typically excluded from the focus of international development practice and scholarship. The article discusses characteristics of ‘third worldality’ in relation to Washington DC. It posits that, despite being emblematic as a power centre, the city exhibits many of the characteristics of a Third World city. Highlighting disenfranchisement, socioeconomic inequality, and environmental health issues, the article reveals a paradox: underdevelopment in the heart of the ‘developed’ world. The article calls for greater recognition of the paradoxes of development theory and practice so as to confront persistent problems of orientalism and lack of self-reflexivity in the field of international development.     

The global securitisation of youth

This article looks critically at the new global youth, peace and security agenda, that has been marked by the passage of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2250 in December 2015. It argues that this agenda needs to be situated within the broader context of the securitisation of development, and that the increasing interest in youth as a security subject and actor is shaped by three overlapping sets of global security concerns: the concept of the youth bulge is a euphemism for the problem of growing surplus populations worldwide; the ideal of youth as peacebuilders is a model for eliciting youth support for the current global social and economic order; and the spectre of globally networked youth being radicalised by extremist groups has legitimated joint state and private sector projects that are taking an increasingly active role intervening in the online lives of young people around the world. The article draws on an analysis of a collection of core documents that form the heart of the global youth and security agenda; and it argues for the need for greater critical reflexivity in considering the growing attention being paid to youth as a social category in global development and policy discourse.     

Quasilegality: khat,cannabis and Africa’s drug laws

Abstract

This article explores the concept of ‘quasilegality’ in relation to two of Africa’s drug crops: khat and cannabis. It argues that the concept is useful in understanding the two substances and their ambiguous relation to the statute books: khat being of varied and ever-changing legal status yet often treated with suspicion even where legal, while cannabis is illegal everywhere in Africa yet often seems de facto legal. The article argues that such quasilegality is socially significant and productive, raising the value of such crops for farmers and traders, but also allowing states to police or not police these substances as their interests and instincts dictate. It also argues that there is no clear link between the law on the statute book and the actual harm potential of these substances. Finally, it suggests that the concept has much wider use beyond these case studies of drugs in Africa in a world where global consensus on drug policy is cracking, and where many other objects of trade and activities find themselves in the blurred territory of the quasilegal.     

Agency conflict and the signalling snafu in the mexican peso crisis of 1994

In this paper I explore the role of signalling in the agency conflict that pits national governments against international lenders in the Mexican peso crisis of 1994. (The term international lenders includes domestic residents with the capacity to invest abroad.) I give evidence for the conventional conclusion that Mexico's underlying economic and financial situation did not warrant the humiliating treatment inflicted on it by the international financial markets. The humiliating treatment, however, was not a mindless overreaction to suddenly perceived changes in the country's political fragility. On the contrary, I show that the country's evolving political fiagility was recognized and compensated for as far back as 1991. It was rather the result of a rational reevaluation of the costs of the agency conflict that is inherent in the relationship between national governments and international lenders and the power of national governments through moratoriums, repudiation, or default to subordinate the claims of international lenders to those of domestic agents. I model the conflict as a government held option to default and introduce signalling by assuming that the Mexican government had monopolistic information on the economy's true situation. I then give evidence that the agency costs were reevaluated when it became clear that the Mexican government had been sending false signals to the international investment community and that these false signals had made it possible for Mexico to borrow close to or beyond the point where default was the optimal financial strategy.     

The War on Drugs in Mexico: a failed state?

This article focuses on the continued attractiveness of ‘failed state’ strategic thinking that stretches across policy-making and academic circles and links it to the issue of the War on Drugs in Mexico. It does so in order to challenge, if not reject, caricatured representations of ‘failed states’. Moreover, it offers an alternative understanding of the War on Drugs and issues of state crisis in Mexico. Rather than assume that state power is rooted within clear and immobile boundaries, it is more fruitful to rethink transformations in state space that cannot be isolated from underlying historical patterns of development and political economy. A political economy approach to state space is therefore better able to draw attention to the twin geopolitical processes shaping the War on Drugs in Mexico: (1) the geographic restructuring of the trade in cocaine and (2) the coeval onset and consolidation of neoliberalism.