Prospective Replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in Predicting Violent Recidivism Among Forensic Patients

An exhaustive survey of a cohort of forensic patients provided an opportunity for a prospective replication of the predictive accuracy of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Data collected during the original survey also permitted a test of the predictive accuracy of clinical assessments of risk on the same cohort. The VRAG yielded a large effect size in predicting violent recidivism (ROC area = .80) over a constant 5-year follow-up and performed significantly better than averaged clinical opinions. The superiority of the VRAG was also observed at very short follow-up times and for very serious violence. Moreover, for 16 subsamples, observed rates of violent recidivism did not differ significantly from the expected rates. VRAG score was unrelated, and clinical judgments inversely related to violent recidivism in the small low-risk sample of female forensic patients. The authors conclude that, regardless of length of opportunity or severity of outcome, actuarial methods are more accurate than is clinical judgment.     

量刑与定罪互动论:为了量刑公正可变换罪名

现行刑法理论中定罪与量刑的关系被扭曲了,刑法理论把准确定罪置于至高无上的地位,司法机关把大量精力耗费于准确判断罪名,定罪决定量刑、量刑不可能影响罪名成为刑法公理。但是,判断罪名意义上的定罪,并非刑法的目的;对被告人和社会最有意义的是量刑,判断罪名只是为公正量刑服务的;因此,如果常规判断的罪名会使量刑失当,就可以为了公正量刑而适度变换罪名。     

Assessing the Risk of Domestic Violence Reoffending: A Validation Study

Little research has been conducted to validate available instruments for assessing the risk of domestic violence reoffending, especially research using some form of prospective design. This study uses a prospective design to determine the reliability and validity of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI). The analysis is based on a sample of 1,465 male domestic violence offenders selected consecutively over a 9-month period. Data on reoffending were collected in a 6-month follow-up period from a subsample of the victims (N = 125) of these perpetrators and from official records for all perpetrators during an 18-month follow-up period. The empirical results suggest that the DVSI was administered reliably, and they provide significant evidence of the concurrent, discriminant, and predictive validity of this instrument. Implications for further research and utilization of the DVSI are discussed.     

New Directions in Intersections,Inequality, and Sentencing

Intersectional approaches to sentencing move beyond simply predicting disparities to consider the ways in which social characteristics such as gender, age, race, ethnicity, and class combine to create even more pronounced inequalities. The current review examines research on intersectionality within the context of criminal sentencing. We identify some of the most promising recent trends in this literature, such as attention to family status in the context of focal concerns as well as the inclusion of immigration status in studies of federal sentencing outcomes. Moving beyond the sentencing stage, we also suggest that an intersectional approach can be extended to decision making within the context of postsentencing outcomes, such as gender-specific and culturally sensitive programming and treatment of offenders in institutional and community corrections settings.     

Assessing Violence Risk in Stalking Cases: A Regression Tree Approach

Advances in the field of risk assessment have highlighted the importance of developing and validating models for problematic or unique subgroups of individuals. Stalking offenders represent one such subgroup, where fears of and potential for violence are well-known and have important implications for safety management. The present study applies a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) approach to a sample of stalking offenders in order to help further the process of identifying and understanding risk assessment strategies. Data from 204 stalking offenders referred for psychiatric evaluation to a publicly-funded clinic were used to develop and assess putative risk factors. A series of nested models were used to generate tree algorithms predicting violence in this sample of offenders. Both simplified and more extensive models generated high levels of predictive accuracy that were roughly comparable to logistic regression models but much more straightforward to apply in clinical practice. Jack-knifed cross-validation analyses demonstrated considerable shrinkage in the CART, although the models were still comparable to many other actuarial risk assessment instruments. Logistic regression models were much more resilient to cross-validation, with relatively modest loss in predictive power.     

量刑建议：实践、问题和对策——以重庆市某检察分院及辖区检察机关的实践探索为例

重庆市某检察分院及辖区基层院通过开展量刑建议改革试点,促进了刑罚裁量的公开公正。但调研发现,量刑建议在适用范围、形成机制、建议内容、提起方式、变更机制、评价机制等方面还存在一些问题,须通过转变司法理念、强化诉讼构造、完善配套机制等来加强和改进量刑建议工作。     

美国量刑理论中的关注焦点理论

关注焦点理论是美国刑事司法领域解释量刑差异的主流理论。该理论认为,法官和其他刑事司法系统的决策者在作出量刑决定时有三个关注焦点:罪犯的可谴责性、人身危险性,以及实践中的可操作性。由于法官在量刑时缺乏完整的信息,因此使用"感官速记"把对这三个焦点的关注转化为对性别、年龄、种族等表面信息的关注,导致"类案不同判"。对关注焦点的研究,在理论上有助于理解司法过程中量刑差异的产生原因,在实践中有助于解决量刑不规范的问题。通过介绍美国的关注焦点理论,以及这个理论框架下的实证研究和对关注焦点理论的评论,反思对我国量刑理论和实践的借鉴意义。     

被害人参与量刑程序：现状、困境与展望

被害人参与量刑程序是量刑程序改革的重要组成部分,对于化解社会矛盾、促进社会和谐具有重要意义。从当前试行效果看,这一制度设计在实践中遇到一些困境。2012年修改后的刑事诉讼法为被害人参与量刑程序、发表量刑意见预留了足够空间。未来应区分＂被害人影响陈述＂与被害人的量刑意见,处理好被害人的量刑意见与检察机关的量刑建议的关系,进一步完善具体的制度设计。     

A Meta-Analysis of Race and Sentencing Research: Explaining the Inconsistencies

Numerous studies have addressed the question: Are African-Americans treated more harshly than similarly situated whites? This research employs meta-analysis to synthesize this body of research. One-hundred-sixteen statistically independent contrasts were coded from 71 published and unpublished studies. Coded study and contextual features are used to explain variation in research findings. Analyses indicate that African-Americans generally are sentenced more harshly than whites; the magnitude of this race effect is statistically significant but small and highly variable. Larger estimates of unwarranted disparity are found in contrasts that examine drug offenses, imprisonment or discretionary decisions, do not pool cases from several smaller jurisdictions, utilize imprecise measures, or omit key variables. Yet, even when consideration is confined to those contrasts employing key controls and precise measures of key variables, unwarranted racial disparities persists. Further, a substantial proportion of variability in study results is explained by study factors, particularly methodological factors.     

故意杀人罪的手段残忍及其死刑裁量——以刑事指导案例为对象的研究

故意杀人罪在死刑适用案件中占有较大比重,其死刑裁量对于减少和控制死刑具有重要意义。而手段残忍是司法实践中故意杀人罪死刑裁量的重要因素,并且独立于故意杀人罪的情节严重、情节恶劣以及后果严重等评价性用语。通过对十个被司法机关认定为故意杀人手段残忍的典型案例的探讨,可以认为故意杀人罪的手段残忍是指,在杀人过程中,故意折磨被害人,致使被害人死亡之前处于肉体与精神的痛苦状态。司法实践中存在着将故意杀人罪的手段残忍与情节严重、情节恶劣以及后果严重等评价性用语相混淆的现象,致使故意杀人罪的手段残忍内容宽泛,沦为一句法律套语。故意杀人罪的死刑裁量应当主要从案件性质、犯罪情节、犯罪后果、主观恶性和人身危险性等四个方面进行考量。     

Lawlessness in the Federal Sentencing Process: A Test for Uniformity and Consistency in Sentence Outcomes

One of the important goals of the federal sentencing guidelines was to reduce inter‐judge disparity in sentencing. In this paper, we test the assumption that structuring discretion produced uniformity in federal sentencing and consistency in the process by which judges arrive at the appropriate sentence. We also examine whether background characteristics of judges affect the sentences they impose on similarly situated offenders. We used hierarchical linear modeling, nesting the offenders in the judges that sentenced them in order to examine the sentencing decisions of federal judges in three U.S. District Courts. While we found that significant variation between judges in sentencing is largely accounted for by our level 1 characteristics, we also found that judges arrive at decisions regarding the appropriate sentence in different ways, by attaching differential weights to several of the legally relevant case characteristics and legally irrelevant offender characteristics.     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

Risk factors for stalking violence,persistence, and recurrence

This study used a retrospective design to investigate risk factors associated with violence during a stalking episode, persistence (increased duration of stalking) and recurrence (multiple subsequent separate stalking episodes) in 157 people (91% male, mean age 35 years) with an established history of stalking behaviour. Results showed that diverse risk factors are associated with different types of stalking outcomes. Consistent with previous research, stalking violence was more likely to occur when the victim was an ex-intimate, when explicit threats had been made and where there had been previous property damage (AUC = .74). Personality disorder, older age, criminal versatility, a prior acquaintanceship and erotomanic delusions (AUC = .75) predicted stalking recurrence. Finally, previous acquaintanceship, the presence of delusional beliefs and the absence of a history of physical or sexual violence were associated with stalking persistence. These results clearly show that effective assessment and management of stalking requires consideration of different stalking outcomes and the diversity of associated risk factors.     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

量刑建议制度探析——以重庆市A区检察院量刑建议工作为调查分析样本

量刑建议制度在试行过程中逐渐暴露出定罪建议权限设置低于量刑建议权、量刑建议随起诉书移送导致出现因量刑理由变化影响量刑的准确性、量刑建议在庭审中提出的阶段缺乏统一规定等制度设计上的缺陷,以及面临量刑建议与法院判决存在一定偏差、量刑建议是否被采纳受法院内部标准和刑事政策变化的影响大、法院就低采纳量刑建议、量刑建议未完全纳入判决书等制度运行中的弊端。应当建立量刑建议听取辩护人和被害人意见的制度,取消量刑建议讨论程序,实行庭前证据开示,赋予公诉人在法庭上改变或者撤回量刑建议权,将量刑建议采纳情况作为抗诉依据,设置科学合理的量刑建议考核标准。     

暴力危险量表中文版的信度

目的引入、修订具有评估暴力危险及危险变化的暴力危险量表(Violence Risk Scale,VRS),对修订后的暴力危险量表中文版(VRS-C)进行信度检验。方法通过标准的翻译程序形成VRS-C,3位评估者独立评估14个案例以检验评分者信度,以125例来自成都安康医院监管病区、四川华西法医学鉴定中心法医精神病学教研室及华西心理卫生中心的精神疾病患者为被试,对VRS-C的信度进行检验。结果初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的评分者信度(ICC=0.80)、同质性信度(克朗巴赫α系数=0.921)、分半信度(0.906)及题总相关性(0.246～0.849)。结论初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的信度。     

论被害人量刑意见的提出：现状与重构

被害人量刑意见是被害人表达诉求的重要载体.被害人量刑意见的提出有助于恢复被害人的受损利益,弥补公诉权行使之不足,实现刑罚裁量的客观公正.目前我国被害人量刑意见的提出还存在一系列问题,应从提出主体、内容、时机、方式以及效力等方面对被害人量刑意见提出程序进行重构.     

Examining the Science and Practice of Violence Risk Assessment with Female Adolescents

While the field of violence risk assessment among adult males has progressed rapidly, several questions remain with respect to the application of forensic risk assessment tools within other populations. In this article, we consider the empirical evidence for the assessment, prediction, and management of violence in adolescent girls. We discuss limitations of generalizing violence risk assessment findings from other populations to adolescent girls and point out areas where there is little or no empirical foundation. Critical issues that must be addressed in research prior to the adoption or rejection of such instruments are delineated. Finally, we provide practice guidelines for clinicians currently involved with adolescent females within risk assessment contexts.     

Disproportional Imprisonment of Black and Hispanic Males: Sentencing Discretion,Processing Outcomes,and Policy Structures

Disproportional incarceration of black and Hispanic men has been the subject of much critical commentary and empirical inquiry. Such disproportionality may be due to greater involvement of minority men in serious crime, to discretionary decisions by local justice officials, or to the differential impact of sentencing policies, such as mandatory minimums or sentencing guidelines, that differentially impact minority men. This study investigated the extent to which the disproportional punishment of black and Hispanic men, and local variation in such disproportionality, can be attributed to unexplained disparities in local sentencing decisions, as opposed to the extent to which such differences are mediated by sentencing policies, or case-processing and extralegal factors. We use 2005–2009 federal court and Pennsylvania state court data. Our findings suggest, particularly in Federal courts, that most disproportionality is determined by processes prior to sentencing, especially sentencing policies that differentially impact minority males.