Prospective Replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in Predicting Violent Recidivism Among Forensic Patients

An exhaustive survey of a cohort of forensic patients provided an opportunity for a prospective replication of the predictive accuracy of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Data collected during the original survey also permitted a test of the predictive accuracy of clinical assessments of risk on the same cohort. The VRAG yielded a large effect size in predicting violent recidivism (ROC area = .80) over a constant 5-year follow-up and performed significantly better than averaged clinical opinions. The superiority of the VRAG was also observed at very short follow-up times and for very serious violence. Moreover, for 16 subsamples, observed rates of violent recidivism did not differ significantly from the expected rates. VRAG score was unrelated, and clinical judgments inversely related to violent recidivism in the small low-risk sample of female forensic patients. The authors conclude that, regardless of length of opportunity or severity of outcome, actuarial methods are more accurate than is clinical judgment.     

Assessing and managing risk for intimate partner violence: Police employees’ use of the Police Screening Tool for Violent Crimes in Scania

Relapse into intimate partner violence (IPV) can potentially be predicted and counter-measures applied. This study examines the predictive validity of a violence risk assessment tool: the Police Screening Tool for Violent Crimes (PST-VC) among a sample of 65 offenders. All PST-VC assessments regarding IPV that were conducted at the Scania police department in 2010 were included in the sample. Follow-up time was 16–28 months, and all reported incidents with the same victim and suspected offender were recorded. The PST-VC demonstrated limited effect in the ability to identify high-risk offenders and predict repeat victimization. Interventions against the offender and victim protective actions were more often recommended in high-risk cases but did not lower the number of IPV relapses. The study suggests that the PST-VC is not a promising instrument.     

DOMESTIC VIOLENCE,DOVE, AND DIVORCE MEDIATION

The primary objective of this article is to describe DOVE, a 19‐item instrument designed to assess and manage the risk of domestic violence between partners during and following their participation in divorce mediation. Assessing risk, more specifically how DOVE can be used to assess risk, is described first. The resulting risk scores (TOTDOVE) are used to assign individuals to risk categories. Problems associated with using categorical, frequency, and probability risk assessment formats in interpreting and communicating risk are discussed in the second segment of the article. A dual, categorical/probability format is advocated. Managing risk using Safety Plan interventions that are linked with risk category and predictor subscores on control, substance abuse, anger, relationship problems, mental health problems, and conflict is covered in the final segment.     

Actuarial Sentencing: An “Unsettled” Proposition

This paper discusses the concerns associated with the introduction of, and increased reliance on, actuarial risk tools in sentencing in order to: (1) stimulate cross-disciplinary dialog and research about the impact of incorporating actuarial risk logic into sentencing processes and (2) identify questions requiring further empirical examination. In this article, I recognize that actuarial risk logic offers managerial and organizational benefits, but I also demonstrate that the application of actuarial risk when sentencing offenders is not without important consequences. First, I provide a brief outline of the emergence, logic, and entrenchment of probabilistic reasoning within criminal justice decision-making, and the more recent extension and application of actuarial risk logic to sentencing. Then, I use the following themes to define the limits of using risk sciences in sentencing: (1) the logical structure of risk; (2) the slippage between risk prediction and individual causation; (3) current methodological limits of risk science; (4) the potential for gender and race discrimination; (5) the legal relevance and transparency of risk-based sentencing; and (6) the jurisprudential and organizational impact of various risk technologies. Importantly, the nature and severity of these complications will vary by, and within, the jurisdiction (or sentencing regime) because current sentencing practices are influenced by local jurisdictional needs and sentencing laws.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

Theory and racial profiling: Shortcomings and future directions in research

The volatile political environment that surrounds the issue of “racial profiling” has led local and state police agencies across the nation to start collecting information about traffic and pedestrian stops. The controversy over this issue is overwhelmed by the unsupported assumption that all race-based decision making by police officers is motivated by individual police officers' racial prejudice. This article reviews recently published studies on racial profiling and critiques both their methods and conclusions. Using the conceptual framework for police research presented by Bernard and Engel, it reviews a number of theories that may explain racial disparities in the rates of police stops. The authors argue that to explain police behavior better, theoretical models must guide future data collection efforts.     

A Pre-Trial Domestic Violence Intensive Supervision Unit: Exploring Case Seriousness and Successful Disposition

This study measures the seriousness of domestic violence cases from the population of cases (N = 96) sentenced to a pre-trial domestic violence intensive supervision unit in one county probation office in Florida from April 1, 2006, to April 30, 2007. No significant differences were found in seriousness across sex, self-reported drug use, or attorney type. Furthermore, no relationship was found between the number of special conditions imposed by the court and the seriousness index value for a case. However, non-Whites had a significantly higher mean case seriousness index than Whites. Findings suggest that using the seriousness index presented in this study, some of the cases examined were not serious enough to warrant being sentenced to the pre-trial domestic violence intensive supervision unit. Implications for future research, including the use of lethality assessments, are addressed.     

Assertions of “Future Dangerousness” at Federal Capital Sentencing: Rates and Correlates of Subsequent Prison Misconduct and Violence

The federal prison disciplinary records of federal capital inmates (n=145) who were sentenced to life without possibility of release (LWOP) by plea bargain, pre-sentencing withdrawal of the death penalty, or jury determination were retrospectively reviewed (M=6.17 years post-admission). Disaggregated prevalence rates were inversely related to infraction severity: serious infraction =0.324, assaultive infraction =0.207, serious assault =0.09, assault with moderate injury =0.007, assault with major injuries or death =0.00. Frequency rates of misconduct were equivalent to other high-security federal inmates (n=18,561), regardless of infraction severity. Government assertions of "future dangerousness" as a nonstatutory aggravating factor were not predictive of prison misconduct. These findings inform federal capital risk assessments and have public policy implications for procedural reliability in death penalty prosecutions.     

Assessing Violence Risk in Stalking Cases: A Regression Tree Approach

Advances in the field of risk assessment have highlighted the importance of developing and validating models for problematic or unique subgroups of individuals. Stalking offenders represent one such subgroup, where fears of and potential for violence are well-known and have important implications for safety management. The present study applies a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) approach to a sample of stalking offenders in order to help further the process of identifying and understanding risk assessment strategies. Data from 204 stalking offenders referred for psychiatric evaluation to a publicly-funded clinic were used to develop and assess putative risk factors. A series of nested models were used to generate tree algorithms predicting violence in this sample of offenders. Both simplified and more extensive models generated high levels of predictive accuracy that were roughly comparable to logistic regression models but much more straightforward to apply in clinical practice. Jack-knifed cross-validation analyses demonstrated considerable shrinkage in the CART, although the models were still comparable to many other actuarial risk assessment instruments. Logistic regression models were much more resilient to cross-validation, with relatively modest loss in predictive power.     

Predictions of Future Dangerousness in Capital Murder Trials: Is It Time to “Disinvent the Wheel?”

Although recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions regarding the death penalty (e.g., Atkins v. Virginia, 2002) have renewed interest in mental health issues, one topic that has not received much attention recently is the ongoing use of expert testimony to support claims that defendants represent a continuing threat to society. In this article, we (a) review prior research relevant to determining the accuracy of clinical predictions that capital defendants will commit future acts of criminal violence; (b) summarize new data from current and former death row inmates in Texas that bolster the claim that such predictions are gross overestimates of risk; and (c) review extant research addressing the potential utility of various risk assessment instruments that increasingly are being used to reinforce clinical predictions in capital trials. Despite significant recent advances in the field of risk assessment, clinical assertions that a defendant is likely to commit future violent acts appear to be highly inaccurate and ethically questionable at best. Moreover, available research offers little support for the claim that the accuracy of these predictions will be appreciably improved by relying on more structured risk assessment measures that have some demonstrated predictive validity in other contexts.Portions of this article were written while the first author was a member of the Department of Psychology at Sam Houston State University. The prison inmate data reported in this study also are described in a report by the Texas Defender Service, available at:     

Assessing the Risk of Domestic Violence Reoffending: A Validation Study

Little research has been conducted to validate available instruments for assessing the risk of domestic violence reoffending, especially research using some form of prospective design. This study uses a prospective design to determine the reliability and validity of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI). The analysis is based on a sample of 1,465 male domestic violence offenders selected consecutively over a 9-month period. Data on reoffending were collected in a 6-month follow-up period from a subsample of the victims (N = 125) of these perpetrators and from official records for all perpetrators during an 18-month follow-up period. The empirical results suggest that the DVSI was administered reliably, and they provide significant evidence of the concurrent, discriminant, and predictive validity of this instrument. Implications for further research and utilization of the DVSI are discussed.     

贪污罪量刑基准体系的构建及回归分析

应当根据刑法规定,通过贪污罪的犯罪结果与处刑数量之间的线性关系,把定量分析方法应用于贪污罪的处刑实践,并依此建立了贪污罪的量刑基准体系,以准确确定被告人应当承担刑事责任的数量,这样,可以减少司法实践中法官个体之间对贪污罪行为处刑的差异。     

贪污罪量刑基准体系的构建及回归分析

根据刑法规定,通过贪污罪的犯罪结果与处刑数量之间的线性关系,把定量分析方法应用于贪污罪的处刑实践,并依此建立了贪污罪的量刑基准体系,以准确确定被告人应当承担刑事责任的数量,以减少司法实践中法官个体之间对贪污罪行为处刑的差异。     

量刑与定罪互动论:为了量刑公正可变换罪名

现行刑法理论中定罪与量刑的关系被扭曲了,刑法理论把准确定罪置于至高无上的地位,司法机关把大量精力耗费于准确判断罪名,定罪决定量刑、量刑不可能影响罪名成为刑法公理。但是,判断罪名意义上的定罪,并非刑法的目的;对被告人和社会最有意义的是量刑,判断罪名只是为公正量刑服务的;因此,如果常规判断的罪名会使量刑失当,就可以为了公正量刑而适度变换罪名。     

Are they different? A comparison of risk in Dangerous and Severe Personality Disordered and Personality Disordered hospitalized populations

Abstract

There has been considerable interest internationally in the assessment and treatment of individuals who have a severe personality disorder and who might pose a high risk of future recidivism. In the UK, the Dangerous and Severe Personality Disorder (DSPD) programme was initiated to deal with just this group. It is unclear, yet, whether those admitted to these services are different from those admitted to conventional personality disorder (PD) services. In the present study, 60 patients admitted to DSPD services, under DSPD criteria, were compared with 44 patients admitted to personality disordered (non-DSPD) services within the same high secure psychiatric hospital, on risk measures, including (1) an index of predicted future violence, (2) previous offending behaviour and (3) ‘pre-treatment’ levels of institutional risk-related behaviour. Results indicated that DSPD patients do pose a greater clinical and management risk, have a higher number of ‘pre-treatment’ risk-related behaviour, and have a greater number of convictions and imprisonments after age 18, relative to PD patients. The implications and limitations of these results are discussed.     

Risk assessment for intimate partner violence: how can the police assess risk?

ABSTRACT

The use of risk assessment tools by frontline police for intimate partner violence has the potential to make a difference to policing. In this paper, the key aspects of intimate partner violence risk assessment are outlined critically with a particular emphasis on how they can be used in practice. Two, evidence-based, exemplars are reviewed. These are the Ontario Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment (ODARA), an example of the actuarial approach, and the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER), an example of the structured professional judgement approach. In addition, the victim giving his or her own appraisal of risk is discussed. All three approaches have some validity when administered properly but practical factors reduce this validity. The content of the risk assessment tools are outlined and practical concerns such as training, time to administer, reliability, validity, and the overlap of intimate partner violence with other forms of offending are discussed. A balanced overview of the strengths, weaknesses and future potential of intimate partner violence risk assessment is provided.     

历史·范式·结构:犯罪学中的风险开示

在20世纪末,风险已成为占据主要支配力的问题处理方式。对于犯罪学来说,关于风险的争论已经贯穿在研究的全部范畴内。犯罪学中的风险理论经历了从隐性到显性的知识发展。在犯罪控制范式转变中,风险的规制、维控与治理与犯罪的预防、控制与治理分别对应而形成了以回抗、维控、化解风险压力为导向的控制结构。同时,作为犯罪控制结构要素的控制主体、控制措施与控制客体的任一环节的自反性都将使犯罪控制的运行超出设计初衷而出现风险性。犯罪学中的风险理论是犯罪学与风险学科的交叉研究理论,也存在由于风险的不确定性在犯罪治理中的适用所引发的一系列争议性问题。由此,风险议题在解决我国司法实践难题时显得尤为重要。