Sustaining multilateral trade cooperation in a multipolar world economy

The deadlock in the WTO Doha Round has been accompanied by an increased focus on the negotiation of preferential trade agreements, including so-called ‘mega-regionals’. This paper discusses possible implications for—and possible responses by—excluded countries that have little prospects of participating in most of the mega-regionals. A number of complementary avenues are identified through which such countries might attenuate the potential downsides of preferential trade liberalization among large countries, as well as some proposals that would expand the scope to pursue cooperation on regulatory policies in the WTO as opposed to PTAs.     

Sustaining livelihoods in complex emergencies: experiences of Sri Lanka

This article examines the role of context-specific factors that help to perpetuate the vulnerability of conflict-affected people. The discussion revolves around key concepts of household livelihood security, resilience building, income diversification, market access, and armed non-state actors. It is argued that, while conflict-affected households develop adaptive strategies to sustain their livelihoods amid the commonly observed vulnerabilities, the governance arrangements of the parties to the conflict can place stress on local initiatives, confining them to subsistence level and so reinforcing their vulnerability. Deeper analysis of the sources of vulnerability and implications of policy processes could help to inform intervention strategies.     

俄罗斯实现持续经济增长面临的主要挑战

随着俄罗斯经济从金融危机中复苏,其经济增长的内在稳定性和长期可持续性问题再次成为理论研究和政策制定关注的焦点。经济学中的内生化增长理论告诉我们,经济长期持续增长受到诸如资本、劳动力、技术进步、人力资本、政府作用和分工等因素的制约。本文依据经济增长理论的逻辑思路,运用俄罗斯经济增长实际数据,对俄罗斯实现持续经济增长面临的主要挑战和制约因素进行了检验和分析。     

The Asian economic crisis and bureaucratic development: a veto player analysis

The Asian economic crisis ravaged numerous economies in thelate 1990s. Significant social and political disruption followedthe fall in Asian currency prices. The newly industrializedstates of Asia were particularly hard hit, yet some also experiencedswift turnarounds, reaching pre-crisis currency rates and economicoutput. The enduring puzzle of the crisis is the role of bureaucratic-businessties as a background cause of the crisis and determinant ofgovernmental policy responses. In this paper, we adapt Tsebelis'veto player model to include bureaucracy as a formal actor inthe adjustment process. We argue that states that minimizedthe control of developmental bureaucracies over finance anddirect managerial decision-making weakened the institutionalcapacity of bureaucrats to veto adjustment policies, both beforeand after the 1997 crisis. Moreover, we find that a traditionof strategic regulatory guidance is associated with favorableeconomic performance, provided that bureaucrats had subjectedprivate firms or state-owned enterprises to competition (oreven business failure) historically, and where the risks associatedwith financial decisions were not socialized by the state.     

Social compacts for long-term inclusive economic growth in developing countries

The notion of a social compact between government, business, and civil society as a basis for long-term economic development and growth underpins economic models in many industrialised countries. The search for a new social order is pressing in developing countries where high levels of economic growth exposes the growing gaps between those who participate economically and those who are left behind. This creates new interest groups and alliances and sees old social orders collapse. Finding ways to bring about more inclusive development in developing countries through a social compact is the focus of this paper.     

The economic transition in Central Asia: Implications for democracy

Ten years have now passed since the August coup of 1991 heralded the collapse of the Soviet Union. Whilst many of these states have successfully navigated themselves through the processes of democratic transition and consolidation, others have not. Although each of the states within the Central Asia region have held elections so that we can speak of some sort of formal democracy having been established, substantive democracy within these states is either absent or falls short of the mark. This article identifies the obstacles to democratic transition and consolidation arising from current economic circumstances and the leaders' appraisal of the political costs of further democratization.     

21世纪初美国经济发展趋势分析

美国经济在全球经济中占有非常重要的地位,因此美国经济的未来走势直接关系到全球经济的发展,美国在经济发展中所具有的优势地位以及在未来经济发展中所要面对的挑战与风险,美国未来经济面临着巨额的经常项目逆差、财政收支赤字、能源价格高涨以及房地产泡沫破灭的威胁,使美国必须采取措施进行调整,这将导致本世纪初美国未来经济发展速度减慢。     

The role of women in economic transformation: market women in Sierra Leone

Various studies have concluded that economic life did not die out during the conflict in Sierra Leone, but took on different forms. Different stakeholders at all levels were engaged in economic activities during the war. The specific roles of women in the shadow economy are under-researched, with the result that most analysis and policy-options are inadequate. While some of Sierra Leone's market women strategically participated in war economies to ‘do well out of war’, most did so out of the need to survive. With the end of the war, market women have been able to make a successful transformation to peace economies through micro-credit assistance.     

The domestic and international quest for economic equality: The interactional process

The historic interaction between domestic and international interpretations of the meaning of equality involves today's economic equality. The economic demands of the Third World countries on the advanced countries find support in the social developments which earlier had occurred in the latter. But these demands have also important domestic consequences, both in the advanced and Third World countries.     

The economic policies in Japan during the last 30 years: An econometric analysis

This paper analyses the Japanese economic growth since 1970 with particular attention for the last decade.After a brief discussion on the qualitative behaviour of macroeconomic variables, a survey of literature presents the ideas of various models.This is useful for the econometric analysis applied here, which consists in a smooth transition model, such as LSTAR.For the last decade a deeper analysis is carried out with a VAR model to test if lending view is necessary in explaining the business cycle.These models suggest that both fiscal and monetary policies were not very efficient. Total lending also accelerated the crisis.To Pietro and Martina.I would like to thank Prof. Barbara Chizzolini and Prof. Carlo Filippini for their comments.     

Faith-based HIV response in post-Soviet Eastern Europe: the case of Channels of Hope in Russia,Romania, and Armenia

ABSTRACT

Most of the data available on faith-based HIV response focus on Africa, which is the heart of the pandemic. This article investigates faith-based community-level HIV responses within Eastern Europe, by studying the implementation of World Vision International’s “Channels of Hope” faith-based HIV intervention. The intervention approach was developed in a high HIV-prevalence setting (South Africa) and then implemented across sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere – including three low HIV-prevalence Eastern European settings (Armenia, Romania, and Russia). Drawing from implementation and evaluation research, this article explores the nature, challenges, and potential of faith-based HIV response within low-prevalence, post-Soviet contexts.     

The EU and China: policy perceptions of economic cooperation and competition

Asia Europe Journal - Both the EU and China agree on the importance of their bilateral economic relationship, but there are differences in how the relationship is perceived. The gap is reflected in...     

Contradictions between economic liberalization and democratization: The case of South Korea

This article examines the relationships between economic liberalization and democratization in South Korea. The two processes are often correlated, but in Korea liberalization has been problematic for democratization. Domestic liberalization initially expanded space for labour organizations, but after they appeared to become too active, the process was so managed as to block political activity. This also resulted from pressures brought on by international liberalization, which made competitive wage costs increasingly important and raised the prospect of disinvestment by Korean and foreign firms. Liberalization has not reduced the power of business (the chaebol). Deregulation and privatization have encouraged a transfer of public economic power to the private sector. The increased political role of business is not necessarily beneficial, and the chaebol's economic power represents a threat to democratization in a variety of ways. In previous decades state power rested on economic controls; and the main impetus for democratization has come from the expansion of civil society through economic development, rather than from economic liberalization. State intervention in the economy may continue to be required to protect the position of certain civil society groups and to control business power, but domestic and international liberalization have challenged both of these functions and may increasingly curtail them in the future. Thus, close examination of the specifics of liberalization in South Korea show no automatic positive correlation can be made between economic and political reform without risking either reductionism or reification.     

The long-term outlook for economic reform in China: resource constraints, inequalities and sustainability

In China, the inequalities generated by the reforms in the last two decades have been increasing. As a result, the unequal regional and sectoral impact of development associated with the growth-maximisation strategy, has given rise to increasingly severe social and economic tensions and contradictions. The threats to political stability posed by these developments remain, for the time being, potential more than real. But the damage which they have caused to the social, economic and environmental fabric of China is already evident. The main critical facts are: 1) the rise in urban unemployment, both de facto and concealed, that has accompanied the halting restructuring programme among state-owned enterprises (SOEs); 2) the massive reservoir of underemployment that affects at least 130 million farmers; 3) the absence of even basic social security provision for the sick, the unemployed and the old; and the highly differentiated access to education; 4) the pervasiveness of corruption and its destructive impact on the normative framework that usually regulates human economic and social behaviour, to the detriment of the social contract between state and individual.Economic and social polarisation associated with China’s growth-maximisation strategy has become the single most important domestic issue facing the Chinese government. Emphasis by the Hun Jintao-Wen Jiabao administration on a new “people-centred” development strategy highlights the urgency of this problem. When added to the pressures of resource shortages and environmental degradation, the case in favour of shifting from growth-maximisation to sustainability appears to be unanswerable. These are the concerns that have prompted government leaders and officials to question China’s existing development strategy and to formulate a “scientific” concept of sustainable and “harmonious” development.The most authoritative explanation of the new strategy was articulated by Hu Jintao in a speech he made in May 2004, which was subsequently republished in the Party’s leading theoretical journal (Qiushi). In it, Hu demanded a radical change in China’s growth model from one characterised by “high input, high consumption, high pollution, and low efficiency” to a new approach, based on “high science and technology contents, good economic benefit, low resource consumption, less environmental pollution, and full exploitation of human resource advantages.” This change in emphasis was designed to help resolve “prominent contradictions”, such as the excessive pace and scale of fixed-asset investment, which threatened not only to exacerbate resource shortages, but also to generate inflationary pressures attendant on excessive expansion of credit.

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The politicization of international economic institutions in US public debates

Recent research has noted a trend of increased “politicization” of international politics, i.e., decisions of international institutions are increasingly debated and contested within civil society. What is lacking so far are explanations for this trend. In this paper we derive four potential explanations and empirically test them. The first two, society-centered, hypotheses focus on the process of socio-economic modernization on the one hand and civil society structures on the other. The second pair of polity-centered hypotheses focuses on the decision-making power of international institutions and on their legitimacy. We measure politicization on the basis of a quantitative content analysis of US quality newspaper articles about four decisions of different international institutions in the issue area of international taxation. Our finding is that politicization is driven by the increasing decision making authority of international institutions rather than by the lack of legitimacy of their procedures or the factors emphasized by society-centered approaches.