Causes of Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885–1992

Previous studies provide strong evidence for the Kantian theory of peace, but a satisfactory evaluation requires establishing the causal influence of the variables. Here we focus on the reciprocal relations between economic interdependence and interstate conflict, 1885–1992. Using distributed-lags analyses, we find that economically important trade does have a substantively important effect in reducing dyadic militarized disputes, even with extensive controls for the influence of past conflict. The benefit of interdependence is particularly great in the case of conflict involving military fatalities. Militarized disputes also cause a reduction in trade, as liberal theory predicts. Democracy and joint membership in intergovernmental organizations, too, have im-portant pacific benefits; but we find only limited support for the role of costly signals in establishing the liberal peace. We find no evidence that democratization increases the incidence of interstate disputes; and contrary to realists' expectations, allies are not less conflict prone than states that are not allied. Democracies and states that share membership in many international organizations have higher levels of trade, but allies do not when these influences are held constant.     

The Limits of Peace: Third Parties in Civil Wars in Southeast Asia, 1993–2004

At of the end of 2005, Asia had the highest number of active civil war dyads. The number of active dyads in other regions was either low or declining. Africa, in particular, experienced a sharp drop in the number of active dyads from 2001 to 2005. Civil wars in Asia also last longer than wars in other regions. With a high number of warring dyads fighting in long wars, the expectation would be that the region would be the focus of third-party conflict management, but this is not the case. In this article, we use an original data set to take a closer look at this gap in expectations by focusing on third-party efforts in Southeast Asia between 1993 and 2004. Bilateral talks were the most common form of third-party engagement, but mediation has been the most likely form to lead to agreements between warring parties. We conclude the article with a discussion of the policy implications of this research.     

Make Social Organizations A Renowned Label of Shanghai on the International Stage

<正>The City Diplomacy of Shanghai With the development of globalization,the behavioral agents of diplomacy are becoming more and more diversified.As the crystallization of human civilization and the focal points of national communication,cities are important behavioral agents of diplomacy.The role of behavior subjects of cities will become all the more significant,     

Rashomon in Jerusalem: Mapping the Israeli Negotiators' Positions on the Israeli–Palestinian Peace Process, 1993–2001

To understand the complexities and dilemmas of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict this paper maps the divergent Israeli positions along the route of the "Oslo" peace process of 1993–2001, including the negotiations at Camp David (July 2000), and Taba (January 2001). This paper is based upon a qualitative content analysis of 20 in-depth interviews conducted in 2002 and 2003 at the Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem with a broad range of Israeli negotiators, including senior politicians, foreign ministry officials, senior military officers, former members of the security services, and political aides. This paper tackles the question of how Israelis who were directly involved in the peace process now evaluate it, offering a portrait of how sharply at odds were the various perceptions of what happened and who was responsible for the ultimate failure.     

国际组织研究中的身份维度

在有关国际组织的研究中,学界大多从现实主义和新自由制度主义的角度出发,尽管两者的观点有明显区别,但均采用理性主义的研究方法.本文试图引入身份维度,为国际组织研究增添新的视角.文章在论述身份作为一种基于差异的社会关系体系的基础上,分析与国际组织作为集体身份的建构相关的问题.     

Breaking Deadlocks in International Institutional Negotiations: The WTO, Seattle, and Doha

Negotiations among members of international institutions often stalemate yet the outcomes vary. Sometimes talks end in impasse and other times in agreement. Several familiar theories are unable to explain the contrast between two prominent outcomes in the World Trade Organization—its 1999 deadlock in Seattle and its 2001 agreement in Doha, Qatar, on an agenda for a new round. Extensive original evidence from these cases documents mechanisms that can tip the negotiation process between impasse and agreement in any institution, not only economic ones. The study illustrates benefits for international relations research of building on the relatively neglected tradition of negotiation analysis, a substantial part of which is outside political science.     

Global Energy Governance: Trade,Infrastructure, and the Diffusion of International Organizations

Why do states choose to join and form international governmental organizations (IGOs) that regulate energy policy? In this article we make three specific contributions to the literature on international cooperation and diffusion. First, we show that countries form and join energy IGOs in response to memberships previously gained by direct competitors among oil and gas producers and consumers. Moreover, we demonstrate that energy IGOs diffuse among countries that share oil and gas pipelines. Finally, we provide evidence that the institutional design of established energy IGOs impacts the development of their membership network. To test these hypotheses, we rely on original data on oil and gas pipelines and the design of energy IGOs as well as on a newly compiled dataset that includes 152 countries and covers 38 years (1970–2007). We employ both network analysis and spatial econometrics.     

越南民主政治建设中的社会组织角色分析

自20世纪80年代越南实行革新起,经济、政治和社会多个领域的变革以及诸如祖国阵线等机构的改革,为越南社会组织的快速发展提供了机遇,社会组织成为沟通国家、市场和社会三大领域的媒介,形成了有越南特色的国家社团主义结构模式。社会组织积极参与越南的民主政治建设,在国家和基层两个层面上协助越南共产党和各级政府开展工作,进而建立了较为稳定的互补性关系。一方面,社会组织成为国家和社会间信息流通的纽带;另一方面,社会组织开展活动提升国家治理水平。同时,这种互补性关系受到组织身份和参与层次两种因素的影响,使得不同身份的社会组织在不同层面上具有不同的参与程度。尽管这种互补性关系目前较为稳定,但也受到多重因素的限制与挑战,特别是个别民主化组织利用民族主义大做文章,为越南革新事业带来新的挑战。     

国际金融危机、G20的崛起与中国

如果说1997年亚洲金融危机催生了G20,那么2008年的国际金融危机以及由此引发的世界性经济危机则促成了G20强势崛起.因此,考察2008年这场空前的金融危机,有助于我们理解G20崛起的意义及中国的国际地位.     

国际威望的实现路径及其对中国崛起的启示

作为一种软实力,国际威望是一个大国实现崛起的重要标尺.它首先具有物质性,其产生和存在依赖于一定的实力基础;但它又是非物质的,并以文本或话语形式而存在.一个国家的威望政策应该是多元化的:首先要提高综合实力,"发展才是硬道理";其次要提高对国际制度的参与和创设能力,以增强制度威望;最后,要重视对外宣传与传播这种最具积极性的路径,它符合当前国际政治的社会化不断加强的特点.     

The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

Constituent Influence on International Trade Policy in the United States, 1987–2006

The debate on whether class-based or industry-based coalitions are politically salient in American trade politics has illuminated domestic sources of international trade policy but remains unresolved. In particular, the literature offers contradictory evidence on the dominance in recent years of class-based or industry-based trade politics. This contradiction is mainly due to selective use of congressional votes. This article contributes to this debate by applying a multilevel item-response-theory model to the entire universe of trade-related votes since 1987. This study finds that class-based coalitions are politically salient in current U.S. trade politics. Furthermore, while this study confirms the significance of party influence on trade voting, it finds little support for the view that political parties have dyadic relationships with particular groups of constituents.     

Legitimacy Deficits of International Organizations: design,drift, and decoupling at the UN Security Council

Despite ubiquitous calls for their reform, international organizations (IOs) often suffer from legitimacy deficits. What explains the emergence of legitimacy deficits and what effects do they produce? This article discusses the gradual emergence of legitimacy deficits through the concept of legitimacy drift. Legitimacy drift occurs when an organization loses legitimacy by failing to adapt itself to a changing environment. It identifies three sources of legitimacy drift: failure to live up to pre-existing standards (broken promises), changes in the standards of legitimacy by which organizations are assessed (shifting standards), and changes in an organization’s relevant public (audience shift). Legitimacy deficits typically prompt organizational responses. These include attempts at re-legitimation through institutional reform and operational adaptation, but also other ‘coping mechanisms’ such as promises of reform, the logic of confidence, and decoupling. Coping mechanisms are especially important where reform is blocked. This model is illustrated by the history of the United Nations Security Council, one of the oldest and most powerful IOs. A conclusion calls for bridging historical and sociological institutionalism to better understand IO legitimacy in time.     

论全球化背景下国际经济组织的职能扩展

长期以来,国际经济组织的职能局限于经济领域。随着晚近经济全球化的迅猛发展,这种定位已不符合时代要求,适当向社会领域扩展成为必要。国际经济组织的这种职能扩展,无论在理论上,还是实定法中,都有其必然性。但是在这个过程中,必须注意几个问题。     

Repression of the Human Right to Personal Integrity Revisited: A Global Cross-National Study Covering the Years 1976–1993

Here we seek to build on our earlier research (Poe and Tate, 1994) by re-testing similar models on a data set covering a much longer time span; the period from 1976 to 1993. Several of our findings differ from those of our earlier work. Here we find statistical evidence that military regimes lead to somewhat greater human rights abuse, defined in terms of violations of personal integrity, once democracy and a host of other factors are controlled. Further, we find that countries that have experienced British colonial influence tend to have relatively fewer abuses of personal integrity rights than others. Finally, our results suggest that leftist countries are actually less repressive of these basic human rights than non-leftist countries. Consistent with the Poe and Tate (1994) study, however, we find that past levels of repression, democracy, population size, economic development, and international and civil wars exercise statistically significant and substantively important impacts on personal integrity abuse.     

战后国际秩序的演进与启示:制度改革的视角

战后全球性国际秩序及其制度载体几乎涉及国际关系的所有领域,总体上包括两大部分,一是国际政治和安全秩序,二是国际经济秩序。战后国际秩序的历史演进主要体现为国际制度的改革和发展,大致经历了四个阶段:美国主导时期、制度改革的源起和发展时期、自由市场转向时期和国际秩序改革新时期。在战后国际秩序及其制度规则的发展和演进过程中,发展中国家始终是推动改革的中坚力量。当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,国际秩序进入改革和调整的新时期。在维护战后国际秩序的前提下,国际制度的改革和发展将是百年变局的一个核心议程。考察战后国际秩序的演进历程,将为思考新时期国际制度的改革和发展提供历史启迪。     

G20崛起是国际体系转型的起点——仅仅是起点!

理论上,"国际体系不是一个静态的实体",它随着国际力量对比、国家间关系和世界政治、经济与安全、战略形势等的变化而不断调整,这种变化、调整累积到一定程度,引起质的飞跃,也就出现所谓国际体系转型.考察国际体系是否出现调整与质的飞跃,是否进入转型轨道,最少要考虑这样几大变量,即:国际主要行为体的力量对比是否出现调整、出现质的变化,并引起国际权力分配和结构的变化?世界领导权是否开始了"周期性转移"过程?原有国际制度(或说国际机制、体制)是否开始发生重大调整?以这些变量来理解G20会议和G20集团的崛起,那种认为国际体系步人新一轮转型轨道的观点是有道理的.     

Designing Police: Interpol and the Study of Change in International Organizations

On those rare occasions when scholars of international organizations (IOs) consider the issue of change, they typically highlight the centrality of states. Although states are important for understanding when and why there is a change in the tasks, mandate, and design of IO, IOs themselves can initiate change. Drawing from sociological institutional and resource dependence approaches, in this article we treat IOs as strategic actors that can choose among a set of strategies in order to pursue their goals in response to changing environmental pressures and constraints that potentially threaten their relevance and resource base. We delineate six strategies—acquiescence, compromise, avoidance, defiance, manipulation, and strategic social construction, and suggest that the strategic choice by IOs is contingent on the level of both organizational insecurity and the congruence between the content of environmental pressures and organizational culture. We emphasize how IOs must make a trade-off between acquiring the resources necessary to survive and be secure, on the one hand, and maintaining autonomy, on the other. We apply this framework to the case of Interpol, investigating how different calculations of these trade-offs led Interpol staff to adopt different strategies depending on its willingness to accept, resist, or initiate changes that demand conformity to external pressures.