Econometric models and the study of the economic effects of Social Security

This article provides a relatively nontechnical discussion of previously published research on the use of econometric models in the study of the economic effects of social security. It illustrates the role of econometric model building by focusing on three major applications: forecasting, policy simulation, and hypothesis testing. A series of three macroeconomic examples serves to emphasize that the development and use of such models puts the focus of the analysis on the underlying economic structure. The first example presents a program-specific model of the Social Security system, the second a large-scale model of the U.S. economy, and the third a single-equation analysis of a specific issue.     

Social funds and local government: the case of Malawi

Two instruments—social funds and decentralization—are currently quite popular policy instruments being adopted in many developing countries throughout the world. Each of these instruments is currently being used or is being implemented in Malawi, Africa. While each instrument is intended to improve the flow of public services in a locality, the article discusses how each has certain potential theoretical advantages over the other. The article then goes on to describe and analyze the flow of resources to Malawian communities under the two largest social action programs, neither of which currently relies on substantial inputs, financial or human, from local governments. The data illustrates a wide disparity in the per capita amounts allocated to these demand‐driven initiatives across districts but also shows the relatively diverse set of local public services supported by the funds. The article close with a discussion of how these two initiatives might be merged within the context of the new Local Government Act 1998, under which local services are to be devolved in the near future. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social funds and decentralisation: optimal institutional design

Most of the 60+ developing countries that have established social funds (SFs) are decentralising their governments as well. But the question of how to tailor SFs—originally a highly centralised model—for a decentralising context has received relatively little attention in the literature. We first examine evidence on the ability of SFs to adapt to a decentralised context. We then lay out the implications of decentralisation for SF institutional design step‐by‐step through the project cycle. The topic is doubly important because social funds can increase their effectiveness, and the sustainability of their investments, by reorganising internal processes to take advantage of the political and civic institutions that decentralisation creates. Local government has an informational advantage in local needs and characteristics (time and place), whereas SFs have access to better technology and knowledge of sectoral best practice. The key is to create institutional incentives that best combine these relative advantages. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论内保工作发展趋势——走社会保安服务之路

传统内保工作体制受到市场经济的挑战,改革这种体制是大势新趋.本文认为内保工作走社会保安服务之路是社会化分工的需要,是经济发展的趋势,是西方发达国家政府鼓励发展的方向,它比传统的内保工作具有明显的优势,走社会保安服务之路是今后内保工作发展的趋势.     

社会保障立法的价值取向

一个没有完善的社会保障法律制度的社会,不可能是一个和谐的社会.社会保障法律制度在构建社会主义和谐社会中的价值是巨大的,具体表现在:维护社会安全,追求社会公平,保障基本人权,促进社会和谐等方面.     

对农民工社会保障问题的思考

随着金融危机的结束,大批农民工再次涌入城市,伴随着新生代农民工群体的出现,农民工群体不断壮大,他们为城市建设作出了巨大贡献,但自身的生活、工作条件却极为艰苦。应当通过广泛的社会保障解决农民工在工作和生活中的困难,保障农民工的合法权益。     

Social Security as Poverty's Guardian

Although social security programs were originally introduced as measures to reduce the poverty of needy groups, factors such as coverage, vestedness, administrative regulations and the so-called "wage stop" effectively prevent millions of people throughout the world from living decently when their only source of income is from social security. In the overwhelming majority of social security programs worldwide, including old-age pensions, illness and maternity programs, workers compensation, and family or children's allowances, coverage is open only to workers and usually excludes housewives, transient workers, agricultural laborers, new immigrants and part-time workers. Similarly, vestedness requirements effectively prevent many people from receiving benefits. Administrative regulations, including waiting times and proof of status, add to the difficulties many people have in getting social security benefits. Most importantly, the stipulation in almost every program that no one should be able to get from welfare programs that which he or she could get from wages or salaries keeps the level of payments far below the poverty line. This paper will document and demonstrate the influence of social security programs throughout the world in contributing to the maintenance of poverty and will propose some radical solutions for overcoming the problem.     

Military veterans and Social Security

There are 9.4 million military veterans receiving Social Security benefits, which means that almost one out of every four adult Social Security beneficiaries has served in the United States military. In addition, veterans and their families make up almost 40 percent of the adult Social Security beneficiary population. Policymakers are particularly interested in military veterans and their families and have provided them with benefits through several government programs, including Social Security credits, home loan guarantees, and compensation and pension payments through the Department of Veterans Affairs. It is therefore important to understand the economic and demographic characteristics of this population. Information in this article is based on data from the March 2004 Current Population Survey, a large, nationally representative survey of U.S. households. Veterans are overwhelmingly male compared with all adult Social Security beneficiaries who are more evenly split between males and females. Military veterans receiving Social Security are more likely to be married and to have finished high school compared with all adult Social Security beneficiaries, and they are less likely to be poor or near poor than the overall beneficiary population. Fourteen percent of veterans receiving Social Security benefits have income below 150 percent of poverty, while 25 percent of all adult Social Security beneficiaries are below this level. The higher economic status among veterans is also reflected in the relatively high Social Security benefits they receive. The number of military veterans receiving Social Security benefits will remain high over the next few decades, while their make-up and characteristics will change. In particular, the number of Vietnam War veterans who receive Social Security will increase in the coming decades, while the number of veterans from World War II and the Korean War will decline.     

Hispanics, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that Hispanics are the country's largest and fastest growing minority, representing about 14.4 percent of the population in 2005 (Census Bureau 2006b). By 2050, Hispanics will account for an estimated 24.4 percent of the population--or 1 in every 4 persons in the United States (Census Bureau 2004, Table 1 a). The Hispanic population tends to be younger than the overall population and currently represents a relatively small but growing fraction of the Social Security beneficiary population. The representation of Hispanics in the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, however, approximates that of their representation in the overall population. This article compares the Hispanic population with the overall population along several dimensions, with a particular focus on the Social Security beneficiary and SSI recipient populations. Data are drawn mainly from the 2005 Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey (ACS PUMS), a relatively new data source with a rich set of economic and demographic variables. Fully implemented nationwide for the first time in 2005, the ACS became the largest household survey in the United States with a sample of almost 3 million addresses. The analysis using the ACS finds that the Hispanic population is significantly different from the general population, particularly in the areas of age distribution, educational attainment, and economic well-being. Compared with the general population, the Hispanic segment is younger and is characterized by lower levels of educational attainment and a higher rate of poverty. The Hispanic Social Security beneficiary population also differs significantly from the general beneficiary population in the same areas. In contrast, the Hispanic and general SSI populations are more comparable with regard to age and economic status and differ significantly only with regard to education.     

Reforming Social Security and Medicare

Books reviewed:
Sheila Burke, Eric Kingson and Uwe Reinhardt, (eds.) Social Security and Medicare, Individual versus Collective Risk and Responsibility     

Public attitudes toward Social Security

In the early years of the Social Security program, public support for old-age pensions was high but knowledge and understanding about benefits and taxes were low. Understanding has greatly increased, even though the program has expanded, and support for Social Security has remained high. Data from the surveys and polls examined in this article indicate that support for Social Security was strong even during the late 1970's and early 1980's, when a fiscal crisis generated a crisis of confidence in the public's perception of the system's ability to pay benefits in the future. The proportion of the American public declaring confidence in the program declined sharply from a large majority with confidence (63 percent) in 1975 to a minority with confidence (39 percent) in 1978. Following the restoration of program financing through the provisions in the 1983 amendments, the trend has reversed. By 1988, nearly one-half of the public expressed confidence in the future of the Social Security program. For the most part, other aspects of public opinion regarding Social Security have shown great stability over the years. The program is popular and has been well-supported. Support for the Government to spend more for Social Security has been consistently high, as has support for benefits to increase with inflation and for benefits to increase even if it means higher taxes. Many individuals rely on income from Social Security or expect to rely on it when they retire. It is clear that the public wants the program to continue. If participation were optional, about three-fourths of the population would stay in the program.     

社会保障X-低效率现象辨析

由于政府失灵、制度设计管理缺陷、道德风险与负面激励等客观诱因的存在,社会保障制度作为社会的稳定器和安全网,其效率目标在运作过程中会产生一定漏出量,从而引发投入-产出效率较差或较低的X-低效率现象。     

Justifying Public Provision of Social Security

The enormous expansion of the Social Security system over the last four decades has left the government very heavily involved in determining the savings and insurance of American households. While the growth of Social Security has been very substantial, it has also been gradual; this may explain the lack of focused debate on the pros and cons of government intervention in private saving and insurance decisions. This paper discusses the rationale for government intervention in this area as well as the evidence supporting the need for such intervention. While arguing the case for government provision of Social Security, the paper also points out significant shortcomings in the current system and suggests several needed reforms.