Tree‐Based Models for Political Science Data

Political scientists often find themselves analyzing data sets with a large number of observations, a large number of variables, or both. Yet, traditional statistical techniques fail to take full advantage of the opportunities inherent in “big data,” as they are too rigid to recover nonlinearities and do not facilitate the easy exploration of interactions in high‐dimensional data sets. In this article, we introduce a family of tree‐based nonparametric techniques that may, in some circumstances, be more appropriate than traditional methods for confronting these data challenges. In particular, tree models are very effective for detecting nonlinearities and interactions, even in data sets with many (potentially irrelevant) covariates. We introduce the basic logic of tree‐based models, provide an overview of the most prominent methods in the literature, and conduct three analyses that illustrate how the methods can be implemented while highlighting both their advantages and limitations.     

The Durability of Carbon Cap‐and‐Trade Policy

The surge of American states' adoption of policies to mitigate climate change in the late 1990s and 2000s appeared to constitute a first wave of expanding use of market‐based policy tools such as carbon cap‐and‐trade in the absence of binding federal constraints. Instead, a substantial number of states have rescinded earlier policy commitments, as have Canadian provincial partners, while others have remained engaged or even expanded their policies. This article examines the durability of the three regional cap‐and‐trade zones that were established with comparable structure and intent but met very different fates. The analysis of these regional entities places particular emphasis on their political resilience across election cycles, their ability to be flexible and adapt administratively through mid‐course adjustments, and their capacity to build constituency support through benefit‐allocation to offset opposition linked to cost imposition.     

Models of Capitalism in the New World Order: the UK Case

In the debate over economic performance which has preoccupied UK policy makers for the last four decades, foreign 'models' of more successful capitalisms elsewhere have been an important point of reference. Those models have been variously market-led (USA), state-led (Japan) or negotiated/consensual (Germany/Sweden). Of late the UK's own internal economic and social settlement has itself been offered as a viable model for once successful foreign economies now in competitive difficulties. The key features of these various models are analysed, and the UK's changing post-war position on the map of models is traced. The changing fortunes of these models are then related to developments in the global economy; and an assessment made of the adequacy (and desirability) of the kind of economic order now being canvassed in the UK by the present Labour Government.     

Liberal Democracy and the Limits of Democratization

Liberalism has provided both a necessary basis for modern democracy and also a constraint upon it. This duality makes a democratic critique of liberalism both imperative and also problematical, in so far as it threatens the conditions of liberal democracy itself. Two of these conditions are examined - the institution of representation and the principle of the limited state - to discover what limits they might impose on the justifiable ambitions of democratizers, to extend political participation on the one hand, and the social agenda for democratization on the other.     

The creation of the World Trade Organization and the establishment of an advocacy regime

Interest group research is a nascent domain in the literature on the World Trade Organization (WTO). This article seeks to explore the development and the current status of the WTO's advocacy regime. It reviews the role of interest groups in the history of the multilateral trading regime and explores the mechanisms of interest representation at the WTO. The paper shows that the design of the WTO's advocacy regime goes back to international efforts for a new governance of global economy after World War II. It is presented that the system is not static but subject to frequent changes, and it is contended that the recently implemented access badges mechanism is one important step toward a conventional lobbying regime as known from the nation states. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identity,Culture and Democratization: The Case of Egypt

This article seeks to present an alternative approach to understanding the failure of democratization in the Arab world by locating the problem of democracy-building within the logic of the process of reproducing national identity and culture. The conceptual framework draws on the writings of Antonio Gramsci and postcolonial theorists such as Edward Said. Taking Egypt as a case study, I examine a series of events surrounding a human rights report about police brutality in Egypt to illustrate how the struggle to reproduce Egyptian national identity impacts upon the practice of democracy. In the course of searching for an “authentic” Egyptian identity, uncorrupted by Western influences, a critical mass of Egyptian civil society participates in producing a political consensus in which civil and political freedoms may be legitimately sacrificed in the name of national unity and security. This is despite attempts by some Egyptian activists to challenge dominant conceptions of national identity and culture in order to open up democratic spaces.     

Institutional Reforms and Democratization in Korea: the Case of the Kim Young Sam Administration, 1993–1998

This article examines the nature of political and institutional reform initiatives that have been carried out under former president Kim Young Sam. How effective have they been in consolidating democracy in Korea? Specifically, we examine why the Kim Young Sam government's political reform campaigns have been limited, and explore the impact of this limitation on his institutional reform initiatives and the process of consolidation of democracy in Korea. We argue that Kim Young Sam's initial political reform campaigns have contributed to creating a favorable environment for his institutional reform efforts. However, limitations of these initial political reform campaigns such as political funding and bribery scandals have hampered institutional reforms. We also argue that these difficulties were intensified by public dissatisfaction with Korea's poor economic performance and International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial assistance. As a result, Kim Young Sam's moral legitimacy as a civilian and reform-oriented leader toward the public has totally evaporated. Therefore, experiences under the Kim Young Sam administration are just trials and errors of democratization that show another failure in presidential leadership in Korea. These experiences will negatively affect the consolidation process of democracy in Korea by increasing the public's distrust of government as a whole. As a result, democratic consolidation in Korea is being delayed.