Global Crisis and Latin America

This essay examines Latin America's experience in the crisis and restructuring of world capitalism from the 1970s into the twenty‐first century, with particular emphasis on the neo‐liberal model, social conflicts and institutional quagmires that have engulfed the region, and the rise of a new resistance politics. The empirical and analytical sections look at: Latin America's changing profile in the global division of labour; the domination of speculative finance capital; the continued debt crisis, its social effects and political implications; capital–labour restructuring, the spread of informalisation and the new inequality; the passage from social explosions to institutional crises; the new popular electoral politics and the fragility of the neo‐liberal state. These issues are approached through the lens of global capitalism theory. This theory sees the turn‐of‐century global system as a new epoch in the history of world capitalism, emphasising new patterns of power and social polarisation worldwide and such concepts as a transnational accumulation, transnational capitalists and a transnational state. Finally, the essay argues that global capitalism faces a twin crisis in the early twenty‐first century, of overaccumulation and of legitimacy, and explores the prospects for social change in Latin America and worldwide.     

九一一事件后美国对拉丁美洲的政策与拉美的反美主义

本文对九一一以来美国对拉丁美洲的政策及拉美地区出现的反美主义情绪进行了探讨。文章认为,单边主义是美国长期以来对拉美政策的突出特点。九一一后,由于反恐而进行政策调整的需要,布什政府对拉美的单边主义倾向更加明显,不仅表现在国际事务上以美国的意愿行事,而且在外交上有意忽视拉美国家。这种单边政策是激起拉美国家和人民反美主义的最重要根源之一。拉美国家的公众反美情绪不仅表明了其对美国的态度,而且激励了本地区的领导人挑战美国,甚至导致一些国家发生了政治转向。文章还以古巴为特例,分析了美国对西半球这个唯一的社会主义国家的政策,认为布什政府在很大程度上保持了美国对古巴政策的连续性,其主调仍然是强硬的,但另一方面,由于反恐的需要和国内利益集团的促动,美古关系也出现了松动的迹象。     

Security Challenges in Latin America

This article challenges established security ideas on Latin America, beginning with the assumption that militarised states and military coups d'état now belong to a bygone era. The attempt is to demonstrate that, despite a regional framework for cooperation, democratic governments here have not established a democratic process of decision-making, particularly where security issues are concerned. This absence of democratic civil control over the military could challenge, and even potentially undermine, the consolidation of democracy in Latin America.     

Liberal and Illiberal Democracy in Latin America

This article examines the incidence of liberal and “illiberal” democracy in Latin America from 1978 through 2004. It demonstrates, first, that illiberal democracy—which combines free and fair elections with systematic constraints on citizens’rights—became the norm throughout the region. Second, it shows that regime transitions most often ended not in liberal democracy but in illiberal democracy. Third, rare events logit analysis reveals that two variables, hyperinflation and presidential elections, had significant impact on movement toward fuller democracy. As a form of short‐term economic shock, hyperinflation generates widespread discontent; given the opportunity to vote, citizens elect reformist opposition candidates who, once in office, remove controls on civil liberties. This scenario substantially increases the likelihood of transition from illiberal to liberal democracy.     

Democratic and Revolutionary Traditions in Latin America

This article seeks to identify and explain the historical links between democracy and revolution in Latin America. It first defines and analyses 'democratic' and 'revolutionary' traditions in the continent. It notes the precocity of nineteenth-century Latin American liberalism which, stimulated by the independence struggles, carried implications for the subsequent onset of democracy in the twentieth century. It then presents a typology of five twentieth-century political permutations (social democracy, revolutionary populism, statist populism, socialist revolution, and authoritarian reaction), seeking to tease out the corresponding relationships between the two 'traditions'. It concludes ( inter alia ) that the current triumph of liberal democracy in Latin America, while in part attributable to historical precedent, is also significantly contingent, and dependent on the apparent exhaustion of the revolutionary tradition.     

Globalization and Pension Reform in Latin America

While financial globalization has created powerful incentives for Latin American governments to privatize old age pension systems, reliance on short-term capital flows has also constrained the ability of cash-strapped governments to enact that reform. Analysis of the technocratic process of pension reform in Argentina and Brazil provides evidence. Instead of simply generating unidirectional pressures for structural pension reform, financial globalization has created a double bind for Latin America's capital-scarce governments, fostering long-term incentives to privatize pension systems while heightening the risk of punishment in the short term.     

Indigenous Parties and Democracy in Latin America

In recent years, important indigenous parties have emerged for the first time in Latin American history. Although some analysts view this development with trepidation, this essay argues that the indigenous parties in Latin America are unlikely to exacerbate ethnic conflict or create the kinds of problems that have been associated with some ethnic parties in other regions. To the contrary, the emergence of major indigenous parties in Latin America may actually help deepen democracy in the region. These parties will certainly improve the representativeness of the party system in the countries where they arise. They should also increase political participation and reduce party system fragmentation and electoral volatility in indigenous areas. They may even increase the acceptance of democracy and reduce political violence in countries with large indigenous populations.     

Measuring Judicial Performance in Latin America

An increasing number of development scholars and policymakers are recognizing the importance of Latin American judicial reforms in shaping the ultimate outcome of the region's "dual transition." We can hardly begin to assess the conditions in which judicial systems are likely to improve, however, unless we have a means to measure judicial performance systematically across countries. This article offers just such a comprehensive cross-national measure of judicial performance for Latin America. Drawing from a survey of Latin American legal scholars and practitioners from 17 countries in the region, it seeks to establish a more valid, and therefore more useful, assessment of the performance of Latin American judiciaries than existing measures, in order to advance efforts to understand the causes and consequences of effective judicial reforms in the region.     

The Reelection Debate in Latin America

The debate over presidential reelection reappeared in Latin America in the last decade, and promises to continue in the years ahead. Arguments in favor contend that the possibility of immediate reelection increases politicians' responsiveness to citizen demands and allows voters the freedom to retain popular incumbents. Arguments against emphasize the danger of abuse of power by incumbents who seek to prolong their tenure. This article illustrates the parallels between these arguments and those made historically regarding the issue. It also suggests that the means by which provisions to allow reelection are adopted can provide valuable signals of their consequences.     

Mapping Religious Change in Latin America

Using Latinobarometer survey data, we study the evolution of religious identities among the adult populations of 17 Latin American countries between 1996 and 2013. We find several interesting patterns. First, the current religious landscape is highly dynamic and is becoming increasingly pluralist among a majority of countries. Changes derive not only from the growth of Evangelicals, as commonly assumed, but also from the sharp rise in irreligious individuals. Second, religious change cannot be convincingly explained by important theories such as secularization, religious economies, and anomie. However, the predictions derived from anomie theory seem more useful for understanding Evangelical growth. Finally, our cohort analysis indicates that aggregate religious change largely results from individual‐level change across time—religious conversion and apostasy—rather than from generational replacement. Still, there are interesting variations across countries in that respect.