冷战后俄罗斯与中东主要国家间的关系

从二战结束直到80年代初期,对中东的政策一直是苏联对外战略的重要组成部分。80年代中后期到90年代初,随着苏联、俄罗斯内外政策的调整,中东在其外交议事日程中的重要性一度有所忽略,但中东独特的地缘政治地位及其所蕴含的巨大经济机会,使得它在俄罗斯外交战略布局中正逐步经历着从边缘向中心的回归。     

美国与东亚大国的关系--东南亚的视角

本文评述了美国与东亚大国———中国、日本、俄罗斯、印度及东盟的关系,以及这些关系对东亚的影响,并着重分析了中国与东亚大国的关系。作者认为,中美关系肯定是未来东亚地区最重要的战略关系。中国的崛起促使创立东亚地区机制成为必要。多边合作是解决和克服双边低效的最直接的战略,因此,创立东亚共同体的想法具有很重要的意义。     

后冷战时代的失败国家课题

失败国家是后冷战时代世界政治中的一个突出课题 ,它对内造成了严重的人道主义灾难 ,对外则是世界和平与地区安全的重大隐患。本文对失败国家的内涵、研究价值、指向性特征、形成原因、相关的国际干预机制等等进行了初步的探讨。     

东向政策与大国平衡:印度东盟认知的改变

印度东盟关系的发展得益于印度的东向政策和东盟的大国平衡战略,而双方认知的改变是其根源。     

The First World War and the Middle East: a literature review of recent scholarship

The historiography of the First World War in the Middle East has changed over the last two decades, and while some established works stand the test of time, there are new works to consider. This article is designed to assist scholars seeking to trace the contours of recent publications, illustrating the variety of themes and subjects that surround that conflict. Military history is by no means the sole issue of interest, and readers will be struck by the range of works on culture, ethnic and sectarian groups, propaganda, diplomatic history, and medicine, among others. The centenary of the First World War has produced its own crop of studies, but the Middle East continues to attract significant interest and tragically recent conflicts inevitably raise questions about the origins and impact of that war in 1914–1918.     

从结构现实主义的视角看冷战后东亚地区和平

冷战后东亚地区保持了相对程度的和平,究其原因是多方面的.作为惟一的超级大国,美国依赖其超强的总体实力,加上其在东亚地区的双边军事同盟体系,主导着冷战后东亚地区的和平局面.本文试图从结构现实主义的视角来分析美国霸权在维护东亚和平中的作用.     

Afghanistan in the Great War

The period of the Great War in Afghanistan was one of the most transformational periods of her entire history. Less than a year after the end of the Great War, both Afghanistan and her relations with the rest of the world had changed forever. The article covers Afghanistan and the outbreak of war, the Niedermayer-Hentig mission from Germany, pressure on the frontier and at court, and the aftermath of the Assassination of Amir Habibullah. At Kabul, the emergence of a ‘War Party’, which favoured the declaration of war on India on the side of the Central Powers, caused difficulties for Habibullah's attempt to remain neutral. Although the War Party was to have some support from the Niedermayer-Hentig Mission to Kabul, it was never strong enough to act until the Great War itself was over. On the other side of the frontier, the tribes were expecting to be called to fight at any moment. Keen to raid into the plains, they initially moved too early and were rebuffed but low-level tribal activity took place all over the frontier, though not at the intensity seen in previous large uprisings. At the same time, the Indian Army was taking out the best troops to send to Europe and other fronts, leaving a comparatively small force to protect the frontier. Large scale response to tribal raiding was not possible but the Indian Army was able to deploy aeroplanes, artillery and machine guns as force multipliers to help make up for the lack of fighting men. The cumulative experience was one of change which needed to be understood and accommodated in short order. Men like Sir Denys Bray of the Foreign Department and Mahmud Tarzi and Abdul Quddus Khan in Kabul were able to do this and, in so doing, facilitated Afghanistan's emergence to independence and nationhood.     

大国无战争时代霸权国与崛起国权力竞争的主要机制

冷战后美国和中国各自的行为选择不仅与此前霸权国和崛起国战略互动的历史经验大相径庭,而且现有的理论框架难以对其做出逻辑一致的解释。这种经验和理论上的双重困惑为理论的创新提供了可能。本文首先讨论了1945年以来大国之间几乎不再有战争这一变化对大国影响力获取方式的影响,然后将霸权国和崛起国的行为纳入到博弈的分析框架中,通过类比微观经济世界中寡头企业的行为规律,提出了一个用以解释当前时代霸权国和崛起国互动模式的动态分析框架。根据本文的理论,在"大国无战争"时代,崛起国面临的主要挑战是如何在为小国提供安全保障的利益交换竞争中获胜。当前中国崛起所面临的主要困难并不在于如何避免战争以保证崛起过程的和平,而是在美国业已抢占国际安全保障供给"市场"的情况下,如何保持和提高中国自身的国际影响力。