Rising competitive authoritarianism in Turkey

Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002 Turkey has undergone double regime transitions. First, tutelary democracy ended; second, a competitive authoritarian regime has risen in its stead. We substantiate this assertion with specific and detailed evidence from 2015 election cycles, as well as from broader trends in Turkish politics. This evidence indeed confirms that elections are no longer fair; civil liberties are being systematically violated; and the playing field is highly skewed in favour of the ruling AKP. The June 2015 election results and their aftermath further confirm that Turkey has evolved into a competitive authoritarian regime.     

东亚崛起进程中的日美关系

21世纪国际关系格局的最大变动将是东方的复兴与崛起以及西方的应对与适应,东西方文明的冲突与融合相交织将谱写一首本世纪“令人心仪”的交响曲,晚了一个世纪到场的中国能否成为这个交响乐团的“领衔演奏者”之一引人关注。东亚的崛起是亚洲复兴的必经之路,其主要标志是中国的复兴与日本的自立。     

欧盟贸易保护主义日益抬头

近一时期,欧盟内外的保护主义现象不断抬头,根源于近年欧盟传统经济社会发展模式受到来自内部和外部的严峻挑战,其经济长期徘徊,福利改革推进步履维艰,政府、企业及民众对国际竞争疑惧心理上升等因素,值得密切关注.     

邓小平与中国和平崛起

中国正在复杂多变的国际环境中和平崛起.人民政权的诞生,特别是上世纪70年代末起步的改革开放历程,昭示着党、政府和人民奋发追求的是一个文明古国名副其实的和平崛起.邓小平为此建立了卓著功勋.在这位伟人百年诞辰临近之际,笔者应约撰写这样一篇文稿,既引以为荣,又深感力不从心.姑且作为一份学习札记吧!     

Contested Cyberspace and Rising Powers

Abstract

The USA developed and has therefore historically played a lead role in cyberspace. Yet rising powers, including brics , have been increasingly challenging the established regime. China and Russia submitted a joint proposal on information security to the United Nations in 2011. India, Brazil, and South Africa have been focusing on the information society since their 2003 Brasilia Declaration. These initiatives demonstrate that cyberspace has become hotly contested. However, there is still a need to explain this divergence. Are rising powers challenging the USA because of their national interests, the urge to maximise their security, or do factors such as values and political structures explain the different trajectories vis-à-vis the hegemon? This article examines the foreign policies of brics from 1995 to date, explaining the influence of different path-dependent origins, of the systemic shift and the type of political system, together with rising civil society pressure.     

中国和平崛起与东亚的未来

中国的和平崛起,是一个至关重要的命题.理解这个命题,需要将历史的视野放得更宽一些.从世界历史发展的角度来看,中国的崛起并不是突然出现的、全新的、暂时的现象,而是一个已经持续了至少160多年的历史进程的最新阶段.中国的崛起将预示着东亚的未来.     

2008：成功应对危机的中国外交

2008年是颇不平凡的一年，对于中国、对于世界都是如此。北京奥运会令世界惊喜赞叹，美国大选产生第一位非白人总统，全球金融危机爆发和蔓延，都足以使这一年在历史中留下足够深刻的印记。     

发展中大国崛起的影响

当今国际舞台上最引人注目的一个现象就是发展中大国的经济和社会取得了快速发展。国际社会称之为发展中大国的崛起。     

Kosovo Defines the West

Kosovo is a proxy war with the Holocaust. As such, this war and its outcome will do much to define the West in the next century That it is a war in Europe, for Europe, sets it apart from all the other tragedies from Rwanda to Kashmir. Our collage of comment on this subject ranges from the secretary general of NATO to the leader of the Kosovars in Albania.     

金砖国家崛起与全球治理体系

后金融危机时期的世界面临三大机遇同时也是三大挑战。其一,全球治理体系进入一个新阶段：美国提供公共产品的能力下降;联合国体系难以适应新的全球问题;传统大国和新兴大国开始共同设定全球治理的议程。     

Islam and the West in world history

Rejecting the thesis that Islam and the West are on a collision course, this article examines the nature of their relations over the centuries and concludes that, although convergence between them is not likely, grounds for mutual tolerance and co-existence have always existed and can, in future, exist. Understanding that proprietary liberalism is not the only model for democracy is a necessary first step in the assessment of the long-term prospects for stable relations between Islam and the West. In this article intellectual, social, economic and political trends are examined, the causes of tensions and conflicts between the two sides are analysed, the nature of the contemporary Islamist project is identified, and the possibilities for effective dialogue between mainstream tendencies in both the West and the Muslim world are assessed.     

Rising powers and order contestation: disaggregating the normative from the representational

A central theme of the literature on rising powers is that new aspirants to great power status pose a challenge to the underlying principles and norms that underpin the existing, Western-led order. However, in much of the literature, the nature and significance of rising powers for international order are imprecisely debated, in particular the concept and practice of ‘contestation’. In this article, we aim to establish a distinction between normative contestation and what can be thought of as ‘contestation over representation’: that is, contestation over who is setting and overseeing the rules of the game rather than the content of the rules themselves and the kind of order that they underpin. The paper engages with debates on international order and international society, and its empirical basis is provided by a thorough analysis of the discourse of rising power summitry.     

Rising Inequality in Mexico: Household Characteristics and Regional Effects

We use an empirical framework to identify the contributions of microeconomic factors to the sharp rise in household (per capita) income inequality in Mexico between 1984 and 1994. Results indicate that changes in returns to household characteristics, in particular changes in returns to education, are responsible for about half of the increase in the Gini coefficient. The deteriorating conditions in rural areas relative to the urban areas and of the southern region relative to other regions account for another fourth of the increase in the Gini.     

未成年人违法犯罪急剧上升的原因分析——以山东省为例的研究

自进入20世纪90年代中期以来，山东省未成年人违法犯罪问题日益突出，呈现大幅度上升趋势。为切实掌握未成年人违法犯罪的基本情况，笔者通过调查山东省公安厅、省人民检察院、省高级人民法院、省未成年犯管教所、女子监狱、少教所等有关机关和单位，并在未成年犯管教所组织了对在押1600余名未成年犯的大型问卷调查活动，对2001年以来未成年人违法犯罪情况及其原因进行了专门调查，现将有关调研结果情况汇总如下：     

强势崛起、金融危机与俄罗斯对外政策的调整

2008年,俄格冲突和金融危机对俄罗斯对外政策产生,了实质性的影响。俄格冲突体现了俄罗斯的强势崛起,表明实力复苏的俄罗斯坚决捍卫国家核心利益的决心;金融危机则对俄罗斯带来了多方位的冲击,暴露出俄罗斯复兴进程的脆弱性与不确定性。俄罗斯就是在俄格冲突之际的冲动和亢奋与金融危机时的无奈与失落之间度过2008年的。这种落差体现了俄罗斯内政、经济与外交之间的密切关联,展现了俄罗斯对外战略中的内在矛盾,也影响着俄罗斯对外政策的调整。