Defensive Gun Uses: New Evidence from a National Survey

The number of civilian defensive gun uses (DGUs) against criminal attackers is regularly invoked in public policy debates as a benefit of widespread private ownership of firearms. Yet there is considerable uncertainty for the prevalence of civilian DGUs, with estimates ranging from 108,000 (using the National Crime Victimization Survey) to 2.5 million (using smaller telephone surveys) per year. In this paper we analyze the results of a new national random-digit-dial telephone survey to estimate the prevalence of DGU and then discuss the plausibility of the results in light of other well-known facts and possible sources of bias in survey data for sensitive behaviors. Because DGU is a relatively rare event by any measure, a small proportion of respondents who falsely report a gun use can produce substantial overestimates of the prevalence of DGU, even if every true defensive gun user conceals his or her use. We find that estimates from this new survey are apparently subject to a large positive bias, which calls into question the accuracy of DGU estimates based on data from general-population surveys. Our analysis also suggests that available survey data are not able to determine whether reported DGU incidents, even if true, add to or detract from public health and safety.     

Increasing Evidence-Based Programs in Criminal and Juvenile Justice: A Report from the Front Line

For the past 5 years in the United States, there has been an increased emphasis on evidence-based programs, and, in particular, the promotion of experimental designs as the highest standard of evidence. This interest has been fueled by the Federal government's demand for accountability that links budget allocation with program performance. The National Institute of Justice, the research, development and evaluation agency within the Office of Programs in the U.S. Department of Justice is undertaking a number of efforts to improve the quality of evaluation research and address the need for evidence-based programs. These efforts have focused on making improvements upfront in the grant selection process so that well-designed evaluations will be undertaken and in the management and monitoring of ongoing evaluation research grants so that implementation and design issues can be identified and addressed. Evaluability assessments is a key strategy that NIJ is relying on increasingly to identify programs that have a high likelihood of being successfully evaluated. Whether these efforts will lead to an overall increase in the rigor of NIJ-supported evaluations remains unanswered at this time. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of The National Academies or the National Institute of Justice.     

论我国城市建设用地的先征后用原则——以公平和效益为视角

在城乡分割的土地所有权双轨制背景下,我国工业化、城市化的历史进程不应受农民集体土地所有制和集体土地所有权的牵制,国家应垄断城市建设用地使用权的一级市场,独占城市建设用地高额级差地租利益,这才符合社会主义原则,才公平合理。因而在城市规范区内,我国应当继续坚持城市建设用地先征后用的原则。     

Using Booking Data to Model Drug User Arrest Rates: A Preliminary to Estimating the Prevalence of Chronic Drug Use

Public policy is often concerned with the size and characteristics of special populations that are difficult to reach in household surveys. Chronic drug users, who often live outside conventional households, provide the illustration motivating this paper. An alternative to household surveys is to question chronic drug users where they congregate—jails, treatment programs, and shelters, for example. Using such opportunistic data for prevalence estimation raises difficult problems for statistical inference: Study subjects who arrive at the collection points cannot be deemed a random sample of the general population. However, if we could estimate the rates at which chronic drug users arrive at the collection points, then we could use those estimates to weight the sample to represent the population. This paper presents a modified Poisson mixture model used to estimate the stochastic process that accounts for how chronic drug users get arrested. It uses that model to estimate arrest rates for 38 counties using up to sixteen quarters of data from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring survey.

Injury‐Related Healthcare Use and Risk of Filicide Victimization: A Population‐Based Case–Control Study

Research on child‐related risk factors for filicide is scant. We investigated whether prior healthcare use for injury (including poisoning) influences filicide risk. Victims (0–14 years; n = 71) were identified in a national autopsy database for the years 1994–2012 and compared to matched, general population controls (n = 355). Healthcare use data were retrieved from a national patient registry. Risks were estimated using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For females, prior inpatient care for injury conferred a statistically significant sevenfold risk (OR = 6.67 [95% CI: 1.49–29.79]), and any prior injury‐related healthcare use conferred a statistically significant fourfold risk (OR = 3.57 [95% CI: 1.13–11.25]), of filicide victimization. No statistically significant risks were found for males. Healthcare personnel should be aware that children treated for injuries, especially females, may be at an elevated risk of filicide victimization. Nevertheless, the filicide base rate remains low, and parents may be stigmatized by unfounded alerts; thus, prudent reflection should precede reports to the authorities.