Rape as terror: The case of Bosnia

When ethnic minority parties are excluded from government coalitions, are group attributes such as religion related to the groups’ use of political violence? We argue that extremist factions within minority groups make use of divergence in religion to mobilize support for violent action when the group is excluded from government. Thus, we posit that while religion per se is not a source of violence, extremist elements of ethnic minorities, whose religion differs from the majority, may use religious divergence to mobilize group members to perpetrate terrorism. Specifically we test the hypotheses that extremist factions of an excluded group will be more likely to carry out terrorist attacks when the group's members belong to a different religion as well as when they belong to a different denomination or sect of a religion than the majority. To test these propositions, we use data on ethnic minority party inclusion in government coalitions, ethnic minority group religion, and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) by matching perpetrators with ethnic groups for all democracies, 1970–2004.     

世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

EU in ASEM: its role in framing inter-regional cooperation with East Asian countries

This study is an institutional analysis that aims at answering the questions: What are the underlying rules or principles of the existing structure within ASEM? What will be the results of functioning of this mechanism? What do these results imply on the future relations of the two regions? The institutional structure of ASEM is based on four main principles: promoting regional integration, enhancing multilateralism inside and outside ASEM, decentralizing transnational cooperation and promoting issue-specific dialogue, and basing all activities, dialogues and discussions on willingness of members. As a consequence, the functioning of this mechanism leads to consolidation of multilateral structure in East Asia as well as to a promotion of knowledge-based policy discussion. The ASEM process have not realized a partnership among equals; rather it put the European members in an advantageous position vis-à-vis the Asian partners because Europeans are well-coordinated, able to mobilize more resource and equipped with various expertise.     

Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence

Although military cooperation among rebel groups in multi-party civil wars could help rebels defeat or extract concessions from an incumbent government, violent conflict among rebel groups is empirically prevalent. Why do rebel groups in multi-party civil wars choose to fight one another? This article models the strategic dilemma facing rebel groups in multi-party civil wars as an alternating-offer bargaining game of incomplete information with an outside option. The game-theoretic model explores the relationship between the status quo distribution of power among rebel groups, the costs of fighting, and the likelihood that one rebel group will opt to unilaterally end bargaining over a set of goods, such as access to supply routes, natural resources, and control over civilian populations. We show that the likelihood of violent conflict between rebel groups is lowest when the status quo distribution of benefits reflects the existing distribution of power.     

Trade Structure and the Effectiveness of America's "Aggressively Unilateral" Trade Policy

When does America's "aggressively unilateral" trade policy work best to open overseas markets? This paper revisits the determinants and effectiveness of Section 301 of U.S. trade law and develops a modified two-level game model for understanding the conditions under which domestic interests and institutions support the use of aggressive negotiation tactics. It argues that a system-level variable, the structure of trade, systematically affects threat effectiveness by influencing both the level of unity among domestic interest groups and the degree of divided government in the sender of threats (the United States). America's sanction threats will enjoy more unified domestic support and hence be more credible when the dispute involves a country having a competitive trade relationship with the U.S. (such as Japan, Canada, and the European Union) rather than one having a complementary trade relationship with the U.S. (such as China, India, and Brazil). Statistical tests based on the universe of Section 301 cases concluded between 1975 and 1995 yield evidence in support of this contention.     

Multiculturalism and trust in Japan: educational policies and schooling practices

Abstract

Japan's foreign population is growing, and policy-makers need to address the manifold challenges of an emerging multicultural society. Most importantly, this concerns the task to prevent societal frictions from occurring. This article puts Japan's preparedness to face the challenge of trust-building between members of different ethnic groups to test. The realm of educational policies and schooling practices will stand at the center of interest. It will be argued that the Japanese approach of an integration policy, with its strong focus on the concept of multiculturalism on a national level of policy-making, falls short of creating opportunities for trust-learning among the members of the societal majority and various minority groups. On a subnational level, however, e.g. in Kanagawa Prefecture, some best-practice examples of trust-learning across ethnic boundaries can nevertheless be identified, and may serve as starting points for future policy reforms.     

"Small Peoples": The Existential Uncertainty of Ethnonational Communities

This exploratory paper attempts to extend the boundaries of research on the "smallness" of polities. It introduces the concept of "small peoples," a term coined by Czech author Milan Kundera to denote communities that lack a "sense of an eternal past and future." The paper posits "small peoples" as ethnic communities characterized by prolonged and deep-rooted uncertainty regarding their own existence. I argue that in modern times, "small peoples" doubt the validity of their past-based ethnic identity and the viability of their future-driven national polity . Empirically, I analyze two distinct "small peoples"—Israeli Jews and French Canadians (Québécois)—and argue that while the former have been more concerned with the future survival of their polity, the latter have been more concerned with insecurity about their identity. The paper suggests that a focus on communities and their intersubjective processes can enrich the study of states and their objective state.     

略论中国西南地区跨界民族的民族类型及相关问题

国内对跨界民族的研究,尤其是对中国西南地区跨界民族的研究虽然取得了一定的成就,但也存在着不少的问题,表现为对境外民族研究得少、对内在的隐性因素探讨得少、对综合性的民族问题研究得少、分层分类的案例研究得少等方面。因此,有必要将境内外的同一民族作为一个整体和联动的对象来考察研究,对跨界民族双边的互动关系和交往特点,进行认真深入的研究。     

EU police and judicial cooperation before the Treaty of Lisbon: strengthening of the weakest link?

Abstract

Three key questions arise from the encroachment of the European Union (EU) on national prerogatives in the administration of justice: What factors contribute to the weakest link collective action problem attending police and judicial cooperation within the EU? What were the substantive and institutional goals of the EU in this policy domain? What accounts for the rising level of police and judicial cooperation despite the persistence of barriers to cooperation and incentives to defect? This article first establishes the fundamental incentives and obstacles to cooperation in matters of transnational security threats in post-Westphalian Europe. It then proceeds to explore the evolution of police and judicial cooperation in Justice and Home Affairs between 1999 and 2009, to assess national contributions to police and judicial cooperation, and to consider the potential impact that the changes introduced by the Lisbon Treaty, Stockholm Programme and European Investigation Order. A final question is considered in the conclusion: Did the level and extent of police and judicial cooperation that emerged between 1999 and 2009 give rise to a community of practice that in turn fostered a nascent community of identity resilient enough to mitigate the weakest link technology of public goods production endemic to this policy domain?     

The Homologous Evolution of Political Communication and Civic Engagement: Good News,Bad News,and No News

We examine the speed and extent to which members of the U.S. House of Representatives adopt emerging Web-based communication technologies. Given the growing centrality of communication for governance and the Web's growing role in effective public outreach, a rational actor approach would suggest that members of Congress should aggressively exploit online communication technology. And this should especially be true for freshman members. We test these expectations using two waves of data coded from the official Web sites of the U.S. House of Representatives, for the years 2006 and 2007. We observe that incumbents show considerable path dependence in their Web site technology adoptions, while the sites of the freshmen who won election in 2006 are largely independent of the Web designs of their corresponding predecessors. This independence does not mean, however, that freshmen are fully exploiting communication technology. Instead, the Web design practices of freshmen appear to be governed by the distribution of existing practices among incumbents, a process we label “distributional path dependence.” This surprising null finding suggests that members have Web-based communication practices that are governed by informal norms socially constructed among congressional offices and that the institution is slow to adapt to emerging communication technologies.     

Limits to cooperation: Iterated graduated games and the arms race

The arms race is often modeled as mutual defection in a Prisoner's Dilemma game and arms control as reciprocal cooperation in an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game, while Chicken and other games are used to represent different aspects of superpower rivalry. This paper develops a model of the macro‐structure of superpower rivalry in which each of these games occur at different levels of military expenditures or other measures of military effort. In this iterated graduated game model the two rival states repeatedly select from an ordered sequence of policy options, and each state experiences tradeoffs among the desire to gain an advantage over the rival, the dangers of escalation, and the intrinsic benefits and opportunity costs of military expenditures. Analysis of numerical examples demonstrates that equilibrium in this model corresponds to the intermediate levels of cooperation and conflict characteristic of superpower rivalry. A concluding discussion indicates that this model is also consistent with the existence of policy competition among domestic groups with conflicting interests.     

The American Role in European Defense Reform

In order to influence the direction and outcomes of defense reforms occurring across Europe, the United States needs to refocus its military-to-military engagement programs with its European allies. Instead of seeking to build partner capacity among the newest NATO members or aspirants, Washington will be better served by maintaining and strengthening interoperability with those allies that are adaptive and innovative, deployable and expeditionary, and capable of full spectrum operations—that is, allies such as France, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. This finding is based upon what Washington itself sees as the future of conflict and the kinds of coalition partner skills and abilities the United States will need to counter post-International Security Assistance Force International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) threats to U.S. and collective security. Given budget and force structure cuts facing the United States as well, the American military cannot afford to waste its limited security cooperation resources.     

《东盟印太展望》及其战略启示

2019年6月,第34届东盟峰会发表了《东盟印太展望》,阐明了东盟关于地区合作的新主张。东盟正在改变以往模糊合作范围的地理概念,将其界定为依然相当模糊但大幅扩展的印太地区,反映出东盟对加强更广范围的地区合作已基本形成一致意见。尽管在达成共识的过程中存在一些分歧和保留意见,但东盟在当前国际和地区形势加速转型的关键时期,努力避免在大国博弈中被边缘化,尽力维护和增强东盟在地区合作中的中心地位。《东盟印太展望》的发布可谓是东盟的自保止损之道,体现出东盟各国深重的忧患意识。然而,此文件一定程度上也反映出东盟受美日澳法等"印太战略"的影响,具有一定的局限性。东盟未来需要有更加符合促进地区共同利益的精神,更能体现东盟的包容性、开放性、合作性,为建设更高质量的东盟共同体,促进地区和平与繁荣提供更强、更有韧性的动力。     

东亚区域经济合作中的主导力量辨析

在经济全球化和区域经济一体化迅速发展的今天,东亚区域经济合作事业蓬勃发展。但是,过去由日本主导或作为“头雁”的东亚经济发展模式,随着日本经济的衰退和中国的腾飞已荡然无存,东亚在经济合作中主导力量缺位。谁又能在东亚区域合作中发挥领导的作用?当前,中日尚不可能,东盟在当前及未来相当长的时间内可发挥统招者的作用。东亚各国以及其他参与国亦惟有借助于东盟这个主导平台,才能更好、更快、更顺利地走向区域经济合作和奔向东亚区域经济一体化的光明大路。     

The Intra-National Struggle to Define "US": External Involvement as a Two-Way Street

Three perspectives on the causes of communal conflict are visible in extant work: a focus on ancient hatreds, on leaders, or on the context that leaders "find" themselves in. Leaders therefore have all the power to mobilize people to fight (or not to) or leaders are driven by circumstantial opportunities or the primordial desires of the masses to resist peace or coexistence with historical enemies. Analysts who focus on leaders or context recognize that external actors affect internal conflicts, but little systematic research has explored the processes relating the domestic politics of nationalist mobilization to factors in the international arena. How does the international arena affect the competition among leaders? How do skillful leaders draw in external actors to lend credibility to their own views? This article asserts that leaders compete to frame identity and mission, and explores the degree to which international factors affect whose "definitions of the situation" are successful in precipitating mobilization shifts among potential followers. A unique finding of this longitudinal study of Northern Ireland is that the role played by international institutions and actors is affected by how domestic actors perceive, cultivate, and bring attention to the linkages between the two spheres.     

中拉关系及中国对拉战略研究的一种进路:进展与问题

中拉关系研究日益成为拉美学界的一种“显学”。有关这一研究领域的问题、材料和思路繁多,构成各具特色且相互参照的研究路径。21世纪第二个10年间出现的进路之一,聚焦于中拉关系及其研究的标志意义、问题意识和学术积累,尝试将学界有关中拉关系的主要分析模式与最新的政治、经济、社会交往数据资料整合,为这一研究确立一些基本的研究议题、参量和思路,力图全面考察中拉关系的历史进程、发展现状及其在区域乃至全球范围呈现的意义。作为保持该研究进程可持续性的阶段性成果,这一进路提炼出十大问题,即中拉关系新阶段的界定、中拉关系的战略定位、中拉整体合作与双边合作的辩证关系、中拉整体合作与拉美地区主义、中拉产能合作、中拉科技合作、中拉人文交流、中拉关系的制度性约束、中拉关系与全球治理和中拉发展战略对接等。进一步的研究则需要关注中拉关系及其研究的动态化和前沿性、主体化和互应性以及多样化和联动性等几对关系。     

Does Conflict Lead to Ethnic Particularism? Electoral Violence and Ethnicity in Kenya 2005–2008

What impact does violence have on ethnic identity? Do acts of violence tend to create greater segmentation and “hardening” of identities among ethnic groups? In this article, we empirically assess the claim that violence inevitably leads to the hardening of ethnic identity (which we operationalize as expressions of ethnic particularism over a national identity). Using survey data from Kenya covering the period 2005–2008, integrated with geocoded data on conflict events in Kenya during that period, and employing multilevel logistic regression analysis, we do not find support for the contention that ethnic identity hardens inevitably as the result of violence. Rather, our findings suggest support for a more nuanced view of the effects of violence on ethnic identity.     

欧洲一体化困境及其路径重塑（英文）

The European Union's recent multiple crises are interconnected and deeply rooted in its institutional dilemma, the interest and value gaps among its members, and emerging political and social identity crisis. The EU has to make a critical choice about its future path, which hinges on various uncertainties and the concert of powers.     

Literacy comes second: working with groups in developing societies

The ?Literacy comes second? model is an experimental approach that may hold greater promise for the future than the traditional literacy classes. The model works with groups that already exist within the community, such as religious groups, groups meeting for business, residents? groups (especially in urban areas), local government and political groups. The main characteristic of these groups is that, from the point of view of literacy, they are mixed groups consisting of men and women who have different levels of literacy skills. The group members share their skills and experiences; thus every member is valued. The justification for the approach comes from an adult learning theory, which states that adults learn best through doing things in their own lives for real. In general, the goal for this approach is that people will learn how to read and write and use literacy skills to achieve developmental tasks.     

海洋命运共同体视域下东亚海域污染合作治理策略优化研究

海洋污染合作治理作为公共政策本质上是要解决不同国家或地区之间的利益冲突问题。东亚海域污染情况复杂,合作治理难度大,尽管目前已有东亚海洋协作体、东亚海环境管理伙伴关系计划等合作机制,但成效甚微。"海洋命运共同体"理念的提出,回应了多极化时代背景下全球海洋污染治理格局变化,聚合了海洋污染治理的全球共识,为解析和指导东亚海域污染合作治理问题提供了方法论。深描东亚海域污染各治理主体在合作过程中所采取的策略,揭示其行动逻辑及作用机制,深刻分析存在的问题,阐释东亚海域污染合作治理博弈产生的动因,通过经典博弈模型描述中日、日韩、不同发展程度国家间及不同利益集团间的博弈过程,能够解释东亚海域污染合作治理效果欠佳的症结所在,进而需要在"海洋命运共同体"理念指引下全面优化各治理主体行动策略,面对百年未有之大变局,为完善东亚海域污染合作治理机制提供中国方案。