Will Black Lives Matter to the Police? African Americans’ Concerns about Trump’s Presidency

ABSTRACT

Based on a 2017 national survey of 1,000 Black Americans, perceptions regarding the implications of Donald Trump’s election as President on race relations, police-minority relations, and police treatment of Black citizens in the United States were examined. Findings suggest the existence of a “Trump Effect.” With minor variation across demographic groups, the survey respondents expressed overall negative perceptions concerning the effects of President Trump’s election. In particular, they expressed the belief that his presidency shows that the United States is a racist society, will strain police-minority relationships, and will create a climate in which African Americans are more likely to be arrested or subjected to police violence. At issue is not just African Americans’ distrust of President Trump but, importantly, whether his emphasis on “law and order” and dismissal of minority-group concerns attenuates the legitimacy of law enforcement in the eyes of African Americans.     

How do mayors get elected? The causal effects of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia

ABSTRACT

What determines the election of mayors? The extent to which pre-electoral coalitions (PECs) influence mayoral election outcomes has not yet been subject to empirical analysis, despite the question’s fundamental theoretical and practical relevance. This note uses regression discontinuity methods to identify the causal effects of PECs on mayoral election results in Indonesia. The study finds that candidates backed by PECs comprising political parties that control council seat shares exceeding first-round mayoral electoral vote thresholds are 14–18 percentage points more likely to win those elections than their counterparts supported by smaller-sized PECs. The analysis determines that PECs are especially helpful in getting non-incumbent candidates elected, although they have no apparent impact on incumbents’ electoral success. PECs can assist candidates in gaining office, therefore, but they are established under corrupt conditions. Ultimately, governance issues surrounding the formation and functioning of PECs impose significant constraints on the development of local democracy in Indonesia.     

From war on terror to war on weather? Rethinking humanitarianism in a new era of chronic emergencies

This special issue of Third World Quarterly makes a case for redirecting attention and resources away from the 'war on terror' and focussing as a matter of urgency on the causes and consequences of global climate change. Global climate change must be recognised as an issue of national and international security. Increased competition for scarce resources and migration are key factors in the propagation of many of today's chronic complex humanitarian emergencies. The relentless growth of megacities in natural disaster hotspots places unprecedented numbers of vulnerable people at risk of disease and death. The Earth's fragile ecosystem has reached a critical tipping point. Today's most urgent need is for a collective endeavour on the part of the international community to redirect resources, enterprise and creativity away from the war on terror and to earnestly redeploy these in seeking solutions to the far greater and increasingly imminent threats that confront us as a consequence of global climate change.     

Prohibitive tariffs on used vehicles: Aid or obstacle to the development process?

One of the protective devices used by less developed nations to stimulate their automotive industries is a prohibitive tariff on used vehicles. The purpose of this note is to demonstrate that this restriction, via adjustments in the stock and age composition of vehicles, might reduce employment in the tariff levying nation's automotive industry, might increase that nation's demand for foreign exchange, and will violate stated (egalitarian) income distribution goals.

The behaviour of the individual vehicle consumer will be analyzed first and market consumption adjustments brought about by various vehicle tariffs will be determined. Supply characteristics of the automotive industry are then presented, and the employment effects of a prohibitive tariff on used vehicles will be examined. Balance of payments and income redistribution effects are briefly considered.     

Do consistent government policies lead to greater meaningfulness and legitimacy on the front line?

We investigate the impact of policy consistency on frontline workers’ perceptions of policy meaningfulness and legitimacy. The results from an experiment involving 779 teachers indicate that policy consistency does have a positive effect on legitimacy and to a lesser extent on meaningfulness. However, the extent depends on policy content and the degree of autonomy. Overall, our findings emphasize the potential positive impact of policy consistency. Although this, to some extent, conflicts with the nature of political decision‐ and policy‐making (i.e., democratically elected governments have been mandated to change policy), our study suggests that policy consistency could be a valuable strategy for governments to strengthen successful policy implementation. This adds a new perspective to the continuing debate within policy implementation and street‐level bureaucracy research on how to account for the complex, messy and sometimes contradictory implementation of public policies.