What parties want from their leaders: How office achievement trumps electoral performance as a driver of party leader survival

Rational choice theories of political behaviour start from the premise that parties seek policy, office, and votes. In accordance with this premise, previous research has shown that electoral performance and office achievement independently affect party leader survival. However, we know little about how goal attainment interacts across these two domains. This paper proposes a novel hypothesis stating that intrinsic goals (office) dominate over purely instrumental ones (votes). As a result, the impact of electoral performance on party leader survival should be conditional on office achievement. Using data on over 500 party leaders in 14 parliamentary democracies between 1965 and 2012, we show that electoral performance and office achievement strongly affect leadership turnover. However, we also demonstrate that the electoral performance effect disappears when parties enter or exit office at the same time. These results constitute the best direct evidence to date that parties prioritise office achievement over electoral success.     

The Campaign Value of Incumbency: A New Solution to the Puzzle of Less Effective Incumbent Spending

A puzzle in research on campaign spending is that while expenditure is positively related to votes won, this effect is far more strongly, or even exclusively, enjoyed by challengers rather than by incumbents. We unearth a new explanation for the puzzle, focusing on the hidden, yet variable, campaign value of office perquisites which incumbents deploy in their campaigns to win votes. When these variable office benefits are unobserved, then the effect is to make observed incumbent spending less effective than spending by challengers. Using data from the 2002 Irish general election, where incumbency was assigned a variable campaign value and included in declared campaign spending, we are able to demonstrate this hidden incumbency effect and estimate its relationship to electoral success, in terms of overall votes, share of votes, and probability of winning a seat. Contrary to previous research showing ineffective incumbent spending, we find that when the campaign value of office is also measured, public office value “spending” is not only very effective in winning votes, but also seems to be more effective than regular incumbent spending.     

Improving the Managerial Capacity of the Federal Government: A Public Administration Agenda for the Next President

The reputation of a president can be enhanced or diminished depending on the quality of federal management. This transition memorandum draws on the insights of the fellows of the National Academy of Public Administration. It urges the next president to (1) set a tone and strengthen organizational infrastructure to promote effective management across government, (2) create an office to monitor potential major risks and ensure adequate response, and (3) pass on to his successor more capable government than he found. Only then can the incoming administration form the basis for short‐term success and longer‐term effectiveness to implement the president’s policy agenda.     

How Aspiration to Office Conditions the Impact of Government Participation on Party Platform Change

Considerable ambiguity exists regarding the effect of government/opposition status on party platform change. Existing theories predict that (1) it has no effect, (2) opposition parties change more, (3) opposition parties change more after several spells in opposition, and (4) parties’ responses vary because of different goal orientations. We propose that a party's aspiration to office, measured by its historical success or failure in entering office, determines a party's reaction to being in opposition or government. We hypothesize that, because of loss aversion, parties with low office aspiration change more when they are in government than when they are in opposition. Conversely, parties with high office aspiration change more as opposition party than as government party. We find evidence for these hypotheses through a pooled time‐series cross‐sectional analysis of 1,686 platform changes in 21 democracies, using the Comparative Manifesto Data and an innovative measure of party platform change.     

Pakistan’s delicate civil–military balance

As the lynchpin of the critical civil–military relationship, Pakistan’s new chief of army staff Raheel Sharif will be able to exert influence over national politics and regional relationships, and potentially determine the success of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s third term in office.     

Edgeless cities: Examining the Noncentered metropolis

Abstract

Edgeless Cities, a form of sprawling office development that never reaches the scale, density, or cohesiveness of Edge Cities, now account for the bulk of office space found outside of downtowns. The term draws on Garreau's Edge City, yet it is a new, albeit elusive, category. It captures the fact that most suburban office areas lack a physical edge. In contrast to Edge Cities, which combine large‐scale office development with major retail, Edgeless Cities feature mostly isolated office buildings spread across vast swaths of urban space.

This article looks at the evolving geography of office space in 13 of the nation's largest office markets, which together contain more than 2.6 billion square feet of office space and 26,000 buildings. The data provide an empirical framework for examining competing theories of metropolitan form. The article concludes with a discussion of the policy implications resulting from the emergence of Edgeless Cities.     

Brand Leaders: Clinton, Blair and the Limitations of the Permanent Campaign

The 'permanent campaign' is said to have reached its apogee in the incumbent communications strategies of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. However, their assiduous courting of public opinion from within office has been used to explain both the high approval ratings of these leaders and their unpopularity for long periods of their incumbency. This apparent paradox suggests that the permanent campaign model is too blunt an instrument to usefully describe or evaluate incumbent communications. Its assumption of continuity between election campaigning and office-holding fails to explain how the strategic terrain changes once a challenger takes office. The concepts of branding and relationship marketing can be used to highlight the difference between gaining support in the one-off transaction of an election and retaining voter loyalty in a post-'purchase' setting. The success of Blair and Clinton in establishing a relationship with voters from within office can be assessed using six attributes of successful brands: simplicity; uniqueness; reassurance; aspiration; values; and credibility. As incumbents, facing challenges in shifting strategic and institutional environments, Blair and Clinton developed messages that were simple and appealed to voter aspirations. Voters remained sceptical about the extent to which these leaders embodied values and delivered on their promises.     

The New President Makes a Budget: From Eisenhower to Bush

Beginning with Eisenhower in 1953, newly elected presidents have proposed revisions to the budgets their predecessors submitted just before leaving office. Only Eisenhower and Reagan enjoyed substantial success in these efforts; the other four soon found that Congress has become increasingly determined to work its own will in budgetary matters. While we have only six cases of new presidents who tried to revise their predecessors' budgets, it seems clear that the two most significant determinants of success have been the personal popularity of the president and a favorable ideological (not partisan) balance in Congress.     

Politics and Administration in Council-Manager Government: Differences between Newly Elected and Senior Council Members

This study examines the different attitudes of newly elected officials and senior incumbents on variables that are considered to be the building blocks of the relationship between local elected officials and professional civil service staff: council respect for the city's professional staff; a clear understanding of the roles of council and the staff; and the governing body's commitment towards working as a group and toward consensus. Governing body members who have served for eight or more years show greater respect for staff, have greater role understanding, and value teamwork among their colleagues more than their newly elected counterparts. While there are differences, the attitudes of long-term officials appear to change little while in office. They enter office with the building blocks of their own success. These findings are based on a cross-sectional and modest longitudinal survey research design, supplemented by in-depth interviews.     

Variation in policy success: radical right populism and migration policy

How do radical right populist parties influence government policies in their core issue of immigration? This article provides a systematic analysis of the direct and indirect effects of radical right anti-immigration parties on migration policy reforms in 17 West European countries from 1990 to 2014. Insights from migration policy theory serve to explain variations in the migration policy success of the radical right. While previous studies mostly treat migration policy as uniform, it is argued that this approach neglects the distinct political logics of immigration and integration policy. This article reveals significant variations in policy success by policy area. While immigration policies have become more liberal despite the electoral success of the radical right, when the radical right is in government office it enacts more restrictions in integration policies. Accordingly, anti-immigrant mobilisation is more likely to influence immigrants’ rights than their actual numbers.     

One for me and one for you? The spillover effect of heads of lists on the presence and success of candidates of immigrant origin

As gatekeepers to elected office, party selectors are often held responsible for the political under-representation of social groups, including immigrant-origin citizens. This article investigates how the socio-demographic characteristics (immigrant background and gender) of heads of list affect the presence and success of immigrant-origin candidates. Heads of lists constitute a unique group, as they simultaneously act as selectors and role models for aspirants and voters. We rely on an original dataset based on the 2018 local elections in Flanders (Belgium) (N = 31,173 candidates on 1309 lists). To our knowledge, it is the first time such a big endeavour is undertaken. The results show that whereas having an immigrant-origin head of list has a positive effect on both the presence and success of other immigrant-origin candidates, having a female head of list does not. We find a spillover effect within one under-represented group, but not between under-represented groups.     

The West German social democrats in opposition 1982–86

Entering opposition, political parties face tasks of renewal and regeneration, the success of which is usually a prerequisite of their return to government office. For the SPD (1982–86), these tasks were: programmatic renewal, the consolidation of internal party cohesion, the restoration of relations with organised labour and élite regeneration. In addition to these tasks of structural renewal, opposition parties must evolve a parliamentary strategy and undertake a realignment towards key groups in the electorale. It is argued here that the SPD embarked on the exercise of renewal and regeneration with more emphasis on continuity than on change. Adopting a short‐term perspective on a return to government, the party looked to makeshift expedients instead of long‐term solutions, postponing change and sidestepping controversial or divisive questions. Consequently, in the wake of its electoral defeat in January 1987, the party faces a ‘crisis of opposition’ as acute as in 1983, if not more so.     

The Jackie (and Jill) Robinson Effect: Why Do Congresswomen Outperform Congressmen?

If voters are biased against female candidates, only the most talented, hardest working female candidates will succeed in the electoral process. Furthermore, if women perceive there to be sex discrimination in the electoral process, or if they underestimate their qualifications for office, then only the most qualified, politically ambitious females will emerge as candidates. We argue that when either or both forms of sex‐based selection are present, the women who are elected to office will perform better, on average, than their male counterparts. We test this central implication of our theory by studying the relative success of men and women in delivering federal spending to their districts and in sponsoring legislation. Analyzing changes within districts over time, we find that congresswomen secure roughly 9% more spending from federal discretionary programs than congressmen. Women also sponsor and cosponsor significantly more bills than their male colleagues.     

Unravelling the Putin Myth: Strong or Weak Caesar?

Having left office, the legacy of Putin will be examined in a multitude of different ways and from a variety of contrasting positions. The approach suggested here is that Putin can be seen as a leader who embarked upon a series of Caesarist strategies in order to create a stable and distinct sociological base for the post-communist Russian state. Its success can be assessed by whether Putin managed to appear as a 'strong prince' and/or succeeded in harmonising Russian civil and political society towards a hegemonic state, or whether he ultimately failed to solve the problems of instability that were left by his predecessor.     

Durable Governors as Political Leaders: Should We Limit Tenure?

"Durable governors," that is, governors who have had more thaneight years of continuous service and won three or more electionsin the past four decades, are of major importance for debatesover limits on gubernatorial tenure. This study examines hypothesesregarding the socioeconomic, political, and individual characteristicsassociated with the emergence of durable governors and theirdegree of political success during their later terms of office.Major differences exist between states which have produced durableDemocratic governors and states which have produced durableRepublican governors. Surprisingly, however, durable governorsdo not emerge more frequently in less competitive states. Thelevel of success which the durable governors have had in maintainingelectoral support and partisan legislative majorities giveslittle indication of a general decline of performance duringlengthy tenure. The performances of the durable governors andthe conditions which have facilitated their emergence lend supportto the movement away from constitutional limitations on gubernatorialreelection.     

Motivation of politicians and long-term policies

We analyze the motivation of politicians in democracies when long-term policies are socially desirable. Politicians receive utility from holding office and from the success of their projects. We refer to the two extreme types of politicians as “populists” and “policy success-seekers”. One result is that inefficiencies in the political process are smaller when a politician is of the populist type. When politicians offer incentive contracts, the problem of inefficient decision-making may be solved. The amount of money necessary to induce the incumbent to undertake the socially optimal project decreases with the degree of populism he displays.     

Why Do Experienced Challengers Do Better than Amateurs?

Politically experienced challengers are more successful in seeking political office than amateurs. The relationship is found so regularly that political experience has become the standard ex ante indicator of challenger quality in studies of American elections. Despite this, little work has investigated why experienced challengers are so successful. Many scholars attribute the relationship to inherent differences between experienced challengers and amateurs: experienced challengers have stronger electoral skills and greater access to material resources. I argue that these differences play a role, but an indirect one. Rather, experienced challengers are lead by both their resource advantage and the high amount of risk they are exposed to in seeking office to run in races in which their party has a good chance of winning. Thus, the direct cause of the experienced challengers’ success is self-selection into winnable races. Empirical analysis supports the self-selection model over a model in which resources directly lead to success.

Minority Representation, Resistance, and Public Policy: The Navajos and the Counties

This article examines Navajo Indian representation on the governingboards of six county governments in Arizona, New Mexico, andUtah. External pressures, especially decisions by the federalgovernment, have encouraged increased Navajo representationand changes in county policies that benefit people on the reservation.Beyond this, the findings for individual counties are consistentwith previous research in suggesting that the size of the Navajopopulation as a percentage of the county population is an importantfactor affecting Navajo success in winning seats and the allocationof benefits to reservation residents. Yet, opposition to Navajorepresentation, the ability of Navajos to secure office, andthe policy significance of their representation are far morecomplex than usually suggested by the relevant literature basedlargely on black and Hispanic experiences.     

The retention of state governors

In this paper, we have provided some support for several hypotheses about the determinants of which governors get reelected. The benefit from being a member of a particular party varies from state to state and from year to year. Personal characteristics such as age are also important. The logits give some support to the importance of coalition formation; reelection is easier in states with low voter turnout and in farm states. The paper is most concerned with the connection between the economic performance and the electoral success of incumbent candidates for governor, and we find support for a model of electoral acountability, in which governors are powerful in state governments and state governments have the ability to differentially tax fixed factors relative to neighboring states.This paper raises some important issues regarding the measurement of variables in political economy, which have wide applicability to other studies in the economics of politics. Peltzman (1988) finds that the difference between the growth rate in state personal income and the national growth rate over a one to four year period prior to the election does not affect gubernatorial electoral outcomes. Concurrently, we find that the current year's growth rate in state personal income and its difference from the national growth rate are not significantly related to electoral success but that the average deviation from predicted state personal income during the governor's tenure in office is significantly related to the odds of getting reelected. That is, the data reject simplistic views of voter behavior and support a sophisticated model of voter behavior. Similarly, Peltzman (1988) has greater success using more sophisticated, cumulative measures of national economic performance.     

The Norwegian conservative party: Setback in an era of strength

After a period of unprecedented electoral growth, the Norwegian Conservative Party experienced a setback in the 1985 election. These shifts in Conservative electoral fortunes are explained in the context of socio‐economic changes in postwar Norway, organisational developments within the Conservative Party, its relationships to the other non‐Socialist parties, and the context of Norwegian public policies. A variety of favourable circumstances contributed to the success of the Conservative Party in the 1970s, but none of these could protect the party against recent losses while in office. The analysis particularly illustrates the weakness of explanations based on social determinism.