THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF PERCEIVED CERTAINTY AND SEVERITY OF PUNISHMENT REVISITED*

This paper synthesizes and extends recent criticisms of cross-sectional and panel studies of perceptual deterrence and then uses those criticisms to design a better cross-sectional study. A series of scenarios involving the noncompliance of a hypothetical plumber were posed to a sample of predominantly middle-aged administrators. The respondents were asked to estimate the probability that the noncompliance would be detected and, if detected, the probability that it would result in criminal prosecution. Respondents were also asked to project their own behavior if in the plumber's position. The results contrast sharply with prior findings, especially of the panel studies. Not only do perceptions of detection risk play an important role in deterring tax noncompliance, but fear of criminal prosecution appears to be a powerful deterrent.     

AN ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE MODEL OF THE EFFECT OF POVERTY ON URBAN HOMICIDE RATES

Inconsistent findings on the relationship between poverty and violent crime have led some authors to question the presence of a structural relationship. There is reason, however, to believe that many of the existing estimates are biased because measures of poverty contain errors which are confounded with disturbances in the estimated models. In this paper we specify and estimate a model which accommodates the measurement error and provides an instrumental variable estimate of the effects of poverty on homicide rates in the 49 largest cities in the U.S. Compared to similar OLS estimates, the instrumental variable estimates are much larger and fit a model in which poverty increases the homicide rate. The results are similar when homicides are divided into four types: family homicides, other primary homicides, robbery homicides, and other-felony homicides     

TESTING THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: A Reduced Form Approach

There are three principal alternative explanations for the dramatic rise in crime over the last 15 years: (I) the retirement of capital punishment; (2) socioeconomic trends; (3) random social shocks starring with the Kennedy assassination in 1963. This article reports a statistical test of the second of these explanations. On balance, the results are unfavorable to it. The statistical test involves the extrapolation of a predicted homicide rate obtained from a reduced form regression equation estimated over the capital punishment era into the postcapital punishment era. The predicted homicide rate (based on socioeconomic variables) continues the long-run secular decline pattern after 1962, while the actual homicide rote rises precipitously. The article concludes with a brief argument that the capital punishment moratorium seems somewhat more plausible than the social shock theory as an explanation for the crime increase.     

THE EFFECT OF IMPRISONMENT ON RECIDIVISM RATES OF FELONY OFFENDERS: A FOCUS ON DRUG OFFENDERS*

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the deterrent effect of imprisonment. Using data on offenders convicted of felonies in 1993 in Jackson County (Kansas City), Missouri, we compare recidivism rates for offenders sentenced to prison with those for offenders placed on probation. We find no evidence that imprisonment reduces the likelihood of recidivism. Instead, we find compelling evidence that offenders who are sentenced to prison have higher rates of recidivism and recidivate more quickly than do offenders placed on probation. We also find persuasive evidence that imprisonment has a more pronounced criminogenic effect on drug offenders than on other types of offenders.     

THE IMPACT OF POLICE INVESTIGATIONS ON POLICE-REPORTED RATES OF GANG AND NONGANG HOMICIDES*

This paper is concerned with the utility of police-reported rates of gang violence, particularly important in an era which stresses officially determined rates of violence. The basic question is whether police investigation procedures have a major impact on the police designations of homicides as gang related, a question of causal order answerable only by the triangulation provided by multiple forms of data analysis. With minor qualification, the results suggest that“gang” designations of homicides reject characteristics of the incident settings and participants, that intrusion of investigative processes on reported gang versus nongang homicide rates was minimal, and that gang homicide rates reported by these departments could be used as reasonable criteria for evaluating program impact.     

PARENTAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF YOUTH THEFT,MARIJUANA USE,DEPRESSION, AND POOR ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE*

Explanations for the fact that crime tends to run in families have focused on the deprived social backgrounds of criminal parents, methods of child‐rearing, modeling processes, and genetic mechanisms. However, parental involvement in the criminal justice system itself also might contribute to the intergenerational transmission of crime and have other adverse effects on children's well‐being. We investigated the development of youth problem behavior in relation to parental arrest, conviction, and incarceration in the youngest and oldest samples of the Pittsburgh Youth Study, a longitudinal survey of 1,009 inner‐city boys. Parental arrest and conviction without incarceration did not predict the development of youth problem behavior. Parental incarceration was not associated with increases in marijuana use, depression, or poor academic performance. However, boys experiencing parental incarceration showed greater increases in theft compared with a control group matched on propensity scores. The association between parental incarceration and youth theft was stronger for White youth than for Black youth. Parenting and peer relations after parental incarceration explained about half of its effects on youth theft. Because the effects of parental incarceration were specific to youth theft, labeling and stigma processes might be particularly important for understanding the consequences of parental incarceration for children.     

THE EFFECT OF VICTIM PARTICIPATION IN SENTENCING ON SENTENCE OUTCOME *

The role of victims in the criminal justice process has been a neglected area of research. In the past two decades, however, victims of crime have received increased attention, and recently this attention has centered on the involvement of victims in sentencing. This paper addresses the concerns of critics of the involvement of victims in sentencing and assesses the impact of victim participation on sentence outcome using felony crimes in one midwestern county. Analysis reveals that filing a victim impact statement has some effect on sentence outcome (probation versus incarceration), although offense and offender characteristics are of primary importance. Victim requests for a particular sentence do not influence the choice of sentence. Legal considerations largely explain length of imprisonment, although several of the victim-related variables have explanatory power. The implications of these results for the debate concerning victim participation are discussed.     

从盗窃到侵占：许霆案的法理与规范分析

<正>一、引言:许霆案中的法治信息与专业要求2006年4月21日,被告人许霆来到广州市某银行的ATM取款机取款。取出1000元后,他惊讶地发现银行卡账户里只被扣了1元,狂喜之下,许霆连续取款,反复操作多次。后经警方查实,许霆在明知银行卡内只有170多元的情况下,先后取款171笔,合计17.5万元。事后携赃款潜逃,17.5万元赃款因投资失败而挥霍一空。广州市中院审理后认为,许霆以非法侵占为目的,采用秘密手段,盗窃金融机构,数额特别巨大,行为构成盗窃罪,判处无期徒刑,剥夺政治权利终身,并处没收个人全部财产。许霆案的一审     

A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF HOMICIDE RATES IN THE UNITED STATES

Variations in regional homicide rates are examined in order to determine whether or not these areas are homogeneous An analysis of varbnce repeatedly isolates southern regions as having pronounced homicide rates. Intraregional varintions are noted. They indicate a need for a revision of Gastil's “Index of Southernness.” Finally, varktions are interpreted within a subcultural context.     

THE IMPACT OF OUT-OF-STATE PRISON POPULATION ON STATE HOMICIDE RATES: DISPLACEMENT AND FREE-RIDER EFFECTS*

Past studies of the impact of prison population on homicide rates have produced widely divergent results. Those using state-level data find small impacts, but those using national data find very large ones. We use displacement/free-rider theory to explore the difference between these results. Displacement, in the current context, refers to a criminal's movement away from states with higher imprisonment rates. Free riding occurs when a state benefits from criminals being incarcerated in other states. If the displacement effect holds, a state's prison population has a stronger impact on crime within the state than would be accomplished by deterrence and incapacitation alone. If the free-rider effect holds, higher prison populations outside the state reduce homicide in the state because criminals are incapacitated elsewhere. Using vital statistics data for 1929 to 1992, we conduct separate homicide regressions for each state using both in-state and out-of-state prison population as independent variables. We find that the out-of-state variable has a much larger (negative) association with homicide, indicating substantial free riding. We also find evidence of a small displacement impact.     

RELATIVE COHORT SIZE AND AGE‐SPECIFIC ARREST RATES: A CONDITIONAL INTERPRETATION OF THE EASTERLIN EFFECT*

The demographic theory formulated by Richard Easterlin (1980) predicts a positive relationship between the relative size of birth cohorts and their rates of criminal offending. Extensive testing of this hypothesis has produced scant support in the literature. Drawing on the emerging conditional interpretation of the Easterlin effect, we propose that the impact of fertility decline on the criminal behavior of the Baby Bust generation may have been suppressed by changes in family structure and racial differences in fertility. Although finding support for this argument, particularly in models explaining property crime, in the final analysis, our research underscores the marginal nature of the Easterlin effect as an explanation of criminal behavior.