黎以冲突难觅赢家

7月12日,黎巴嫩真主党越境掳走以色列军的两名士兵.第二天,以空军就轰炸贝鲁特机场,19日,以军地面部队进入黎境内,真主党进行反击,与入侵以军进行激战,还用火箭弹打击以境内海法市等目标,黎以冲突全面爆发.     

沃勒斯坦评黎以冲突和以色列的立国战略

2006年8月1日美国http://fbc.binghamton.edu网站发表了美国著名左翼学者沃勒斯坦题为《以色列能达到什么目的?》的文章,展望了7月份爆发的黎以冲突的前景,评论了以色列长期以来在中东的立国战略,认为以色列和美国一样,意图通过武力达到目的,这在未来是行不通的。文章主要内容如下。以色列于1948年建国。从那以后,以色列国内的犹太人和阿拉伯人之间、以色列和邻国之间就不断发生暴力冲突。有时候,暴力冲突处于低水平甚至隐而不见。而每隔一段时间,暴力冲突便升级为公开交战,就像现在这样。全面暴力冲突一旦爆发,人们马上就开始讨论是什么导…     

本刊特约专家深度分析热点国际战略新闻 黎以冲突会升级和扩大吗?

以色列军政首脑已扬言要大举进攻消灭真主党,但历史经验表明,这可能适得其反。此次冲突起因于两名以军士兵被黎巴嫩真主党武装绑架,以色列新政府反应强烈,大动干戈。与沙龙执政时期对巴勒斯坦人的有限报复措施形成鲜明对照。     

论美国与伊斯兰世界的冲突

美国由于实行偏袒以色列的政策,引起伊斯兰世界的不满,美国同伊斯兰世界的关系渐行渐远。布什新政府曾提出进行“新十字军东征”口号,继阿富汗战争之后又绕开联合国,悍然发动入侵伊拉克的战争,与伊斯兰世界关系紧张。尽管其中有文化价值观的冲撞,但这并不是纯文明冲突。     

海湾冲突中的苏美关系

海湾冲突指的是伊拉克入侵科威特以及由此引起的美国为首的多国联盟同伊拉克的冲突,包括海湾危机和海湾战争。海湾冲突,特别是今年1月17日到2月28日的海湾战争引起了世界各国的普遍关心。美苏两国在这场国际冲突中的相互关系也令人注目、耐人寻味。     

技术背后的体制得与失

不能因为7·23事故就完全否定中国高铁的技术创新成就。经过这么多年的发展,中国人在技术学习、吸收、消化和创造的能力上其实已经非常强,比日本人差不了太多。这种市场与举国体制结合的机制,本身并没有什么错。但最应该警惕的就是系统内部利益集团垄断资源。     

经贸联系在两岸政治冲突中的化解作用刍议

经贸联系在两岸政治冲突中的化解作用刍议修春萍＊去年六月以来，两岸关系的大幅波动引起了多方的关注，由于在一些原则性的问题上无法达成妥协，８０年代后迅速热络起来的两岸关系由此陷入了僵局。在僵持的特定环境中，两岸间业已存在的许多政治歧见和种种差异被凸显了出...     

刑法中的义务冲突理论研究

对刑法理论中的义务冲突进行深入研究和探讨,不仅可以促进刑法体系结构的完善和刑法理论的发展,还能对刑法在实践中的应用情况进行指导,帮助无罪的人不受到法律的追究,使有罪的人得到其应有的惩罚.文章从义务冲突的含义及其相关学说,义务冲突理论的司法适用等关键词入手,结合我国实际情况,通过对我国犯罪构成要件和法律结果的剖析来论证义...     

台湾在美国亚太地缘战略中的作用

解决台湾问题原本是海峡两岸中国人的内部事务,但由于以美国为首的国际势力的干涉,使台湾问题复杂化,日益成为影响中国外交和亚太安全与稳定的热点问题。冷战后,国际格局发生了巨大的变化,台湾问题作为美国全球战略尤其是亚太战略的重要组成部分,其目前之所以提高对台湾问题的介入程度,重要原因之一就是台湾在美国亚太地缘战略中有着重要的作用。     

美国在世界金融体系中的非对称性优势

自1994年墨西哥金融危机以来,世界很多国家相继出现大规模的金融危机。面对这些金融危机,很多国家按国际货币基金组织要求进行金融改革,结果往往是在获得短暂的改善后,又堕入更大的危机:投机盛行,货币崩溃,经济萎缩,民族国家的经济、教育科研和支柱产业等更加缺少资金支持。这一切的原因是,现有的国际金融规则是非对称性地有利于金融资本特别是美国金融资本的,这样的规则只适于美国的发展,而是其他国家特别是发展中国家的陷阱。本刊将组织系列论述全球金融体系的本质和危害的文章,以为中国正开启的金融改革提供参考。     

国际反恐得失谈--写在"9·11"事件三周年之际

今年5月底到6月,美弱化单边主义反恐倾向,布什利用出席八国峰会、纪念诺曼底登陆等机会极力弥补与其它大国之间的嫌隙,反常志地大力吹捧联合国的作用,这反应了布什穷于应对当前反恐困境和伊拉克泥潭,急于为赢得国内大选和继续推进美对外政策铺路搭桥.回顾从"911"至今的国际反恐进程,尽管国际社会取得一些经验,但实际效果糟糕透顺.单边和霸权主义的反恐道路急需迷选知返,急需回归联合国和国际多边合作轨道.     

Nagorny Karabakh conflict: prospects for conflict transformation

The article explores the current stalemate in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, and perspectives for conflict transformation. As the conflict has remained dormant for more than 20 years, the political systems of the countries engaged in the conflict have adjusted to the conflict situation. The conflict is often used by the political elites in order to legitimize their power, consolidate support, marginalize opponents, and neutralize democratizing pressures. Since the status quo serves the interests of the authorities, the ruling regimes do not have strong incentives to seek conflict resolution. In these conditions, conflict transformation approaches are considered a necessary means to deal with the conflict. Given that political elites have little incentive to implement such transformation, civil society actors come increasingly to the fore. Only through multitrack initiatives supported by civil society actors, we argue, can conflict transformation practices advance and subsequently bring peace to the region.     

Limiting conflict in the Gulf

Non‐fiction reviews

Undoing Independence: regionalism and the reincorporation of Transkei into South Africa. Andrew Donaldson, Julia Segar and Roger Southall (eds), Grahamstown: Institute of Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University, 1992. (Special Issue of Journal of Contemporary African Studies 11(2); published mid‐1993) pp 281 US$12.00 pb

Frontiers. The Epic of South Africa's Creation and the Tragedy of the Xhosa People. Noel Mostert, London: Jonathan Cape, 1992, pp xxix + 1355. £25

Ghana and the Rawlings Factor. by Kevin Shillington, London: Macmillan, 1992, pp 184, £5.95 pb, £14.95 hb

Staying Poor. Ghana's Political Economy, 1950–1990. by Douglas Rimmer, Oxford: Pergamon Press (for the World Bank), 1992 pp

Class, Politics and Ideology in the Iranian Revolution. by Mansoor Moaddel, New York and Oxford: Columbia University Press, 1993, pp 309, $43.50 hb

The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality. by John L Esposito, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992, pp 212, $22.00 hb.

Latin American Theories of Development and Underdevelopment. by Cristobal Kay, London and New York: Routledge, 1989, pp 295

Communications and the ‘Third World’. by Geoffrey Reeves, London: Routledge, 1993, pp 277, £12.99 pb

A New World Order: Grassroots Movements for Global Change. by Paul Ekins, London: Routledge, 1992, pp 248, £9.99 pb

Reference reviews

Directory of African Film‐Makers and Films. Compiled and edited by Keith Shiri, Trowbridge, Wiltshire: Hicks Books, 1992, pp 194, £33.00 hb

The Penguin History of Latin America. by Edwin Williamson, London: Allen Lane, The Penguin Press, 1992, pp 631, £25.00 hb

The United Nations Library on Transnational Corporations. Edited by John Dunning The Theory of Transnational Corporations. Vol 1 Transnational Corporations: a historical perspective. Vol 2 Transnational Corporations and Economic Development. Vol 3. Transnational Corporations and Business Strategy. Vol 4. London: Routledge, 1992, total pp 1644, Boxed set of four volumes: £350.00.

Green Globe Yearbook 1992. Edited by H O Bergesen, M Norderhaug and G Parmann, For Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway Oxford &; New York: Oxford University Press, 1992, pp 303, £25.00 hb

World Resources 1992–93: A Guide to the Global Environment. Toward Sustainable Development. by The World Resources Institute, In collaboration with United Nations Oxford &; New York: Oxford University Press, 1992, pp 385, £15.95

Millennium: Tribal Wisdom and the Modern World. by David Maybury‐Lewis, London: Viking, 1992, pp 397, £17.99 pb     

Russia's quest for respect in the international conflict management in Kosovo

This article examines the emotion-based status-seeking logic in Russia's foreign policy vis-à-vis the West, presenting the example of Russia's reactions to NATO's military campaign against Serbia in 1999. It is argued that Russian assertiveness in combination with expressive rhetoric must be understood as a result of the ruling elite's need to have Russia's identity and self-defined social status as an equal great power in world politics respected by its Western interaction partners. Russia's reactions to NATO's intervention, which was not authorized by the UN Security Council, must be read as a strategy coping with the emotion anger about the perceived humiliation and provocation of status denial and ignorance by the West. We find various elements of such a coping strategy, among them the verbalization of the feeling of anger among Russian political circles and the media; uttering retaliation threats, but no ‘real’ aggressive, retaliatory action; minor and temporary activities aimed at restoring Russia's image and status as an influential an equal power. On the surface, the Kosovo episode did not result in any visible break or rift in the Russian–Western relationship. However, emotionally it has lead to a significant loss of trust in the respective partner on both sides.     

Sectarianism and conflict in Syria

This article challenges the sectarian narrative of Syria’s current civil war, which relies on several false assumptions about the nature of political identity. It first questions how sectarian the uprising and civil war actually are, suggesting that the conflict is ‘semi-sectarian’, given the multiple other fault lines of contention, notably class, ideology and other non-sect, sub-state ties. It then draws on the theoretical debates between primordialists, ethno-symbolists and modernists to historicise political identity development in Syria. In doing so, it reasserts the modernist case, emphasising how political identities in Syria, both national and sectarian, have developed in a complex interrelated manner in the modern era and how the recent violent mobilisation of sectarian identity is the result of long- and short-term structural, economic, socio-cultural and political factors rather than unchanging ancient animosities. Of these, the most vital remain structural changes and elite reactions to them, with the prospect of state collapse in Syria’s future the most likely cause of a descent into further sectarian chaos.     

伊朗:美国的"烫手山芋"

近来,不断传闻美国将对伊朗采取军事行动.日前,美媒体又透露,布什政府将就是否把"反恐战争"扩大到伊朗的问题进行辩论.布什总统公开表示,如伊朗不停止核计划,将可能采取军事行动.伊朗国防部长沙姆哈尼对布什讲话做出反应说,伊朗有足够的军事力量进行反击.     

Research note: Institute for the study of conflict

The London‐based Institute for the Study of Conflict (ISC) was the first body to research systematically into low‐intensity warfare. It has chronicled in its house journal, Conflict Studies, the rise of terrorism and political violence throughout the world and has contributed toward an understanding of its causes. New developments include the establishment of a U.S. Committee in North America, chaired by George Ball, and plans for 1978 to publish through branch offices in Germany, France and Latin America. The facilities of the ISC, which is industrially financed, are open to scholars on the acceptance of a formal application.     

New media and governance in conflict

The role of new media in shaping the interactions of formal and informal leaders with their audiences is frequently misunderstood and often narrowly focussed on electoral processes and political competition. By weaving together strands of scholarship on political communication and political settlement while engaging with concepts of hybrid governance and leadership more prevalent in the African studies literature, this article takes a different, wider focus. We attempt to knit a framework that challenges normative assumptions on institutional communicative practices and considers the role of power, leadership and communications in both exacerbating and mitigating violent conflict in emerging and consolidating democracies. By bringing together disparate strands of scholarship that are rarely in dialogue, we question a characterisation that contrasts vertical mainstream media with more horizontal and inclusive social media, arguing that a more nuanced view of the political significance of these spaces is required, one that highlights their interplay and blurs the boundaries between online and offline. In doing so, the article places power at the centre of analysis to examine how entrenched relations of patronage can be left unscathed, transformed or even reinforced by networked forms of communication.