特朗普政府的贸易政策——基于美国国内贸易政治视角的分析

根据美国国内贸易政治的菱形博弈分析框架,美国贸易政策是总统、议会、利益集团和公众四方互动的结果。总结特朗普政府的贸易政策理念并分析其所面临的来自公众、议会和利益集团的约束,可以发现主张保护贸易的全球化受害者们是特朗普的民意基本盘,因此特朗普政府绝不会轻易放弃重要的贸易保护主张;而共和党人同时控制参众两院的现状以及支持贸易自由化的利益集团不断壮大的趋势,决定了特朗普政府不至于陷入贸易保护主义的泥潭。展望未来,特朗普政府的对华贸易政策将以结果为导向,凡是能促进公平贸易从而改善工人就业的手段都可能被采用。特朗普政府将中国列为其贸易保护主义的头号目标,正在并将继续以打击中国的不公平贸易为名,依据国内贸易法规或者采用议题联动的方式,试图在一定期限内实现具体目标。中国应在洞悉美国国内贸易政治的基础上,坚决维护自身正当权益,积极维护全球自由贸易。     

美国贸易政策新思维映射下的“印太经济框架”

在继承特朗普政府贸易政策的基础上,拜登政府重新塑造了美国贸易政策的底层逻辑,形成美国贸易政策的“新思维”。其试图放弃传统方式的贸易自由化,以国内政治需求为中心,构建高标准的国际经贸规则体系,抑制所谓“逐底竞争”,引导跨国公司从追求效率转为追求“最优成本”,最终重塑全球价值链,并实现“安全和韧性”。“印太经济框架”是美国贸易政策新思维在印太地区的战略映射,集中体现了美国贸易政策思维逻辑重塑的结果。贸易政策新思维使得“印太经济框架”显现非传统贸易协定、推行新涵义的市场准入、与其他区域战略呼应、重视集体能力等特征。其战略目标是重获区域经贸规则制定权,重塑中国所处战略环境。面对未来区域内可能出现的种种“去中国化”挑战,中国需在亚太经贸合作领域做好全局性战略应对,坚定地坚持多边治理和高水平对外开放的战略。同时,针对“印太经济框架”的不同议题,中国应及时设计短、中、长期的应对战略和策略组合。     

特朗普政府的贸易政策及其实施

特朗普政府贸易政策的总目标和基本原则是"以对美国人更自由更公平的方式扩大贸易"。它申明世贸组织对美国不具有直接约束力;要求其他国家向美国商品和服务开放市场;坚决保护美国的知识产权;重新谈判自由贸易协定。它以"国家安全"为由,连续发起贸易"337""232"和"301"调查,对相关国家实行单方面制裁,威胁同中国打贸易战。特朗普政府在中美贸易问题上采取的强硬措施并不是一项孤立的政策,而是美国国家安全战略变化的一个侧面,即把中国确定为美国最大的"战略竞争者",为此要竭尽所能阻止中国高科技快速发展可能带来的美国在与中国竞争时的不利局面。     

试析美国台海政策与亚太利益

从1950年美国第七舰队进入台湾海峡开始，台湾即被正式纳入美国的全球战略，成为其手中的一颗棋子。1979年中美建交后，美对台政策虽有所调整，但作为美国在亚太地区的一个战略据点，台湾仍是美国遏制中国的一张牌，其棋子价值一直随着美国全球战略的调整、中美关系的波动而变化。美国的台海政策服从于其总体战略目标和对华政策，尽管不同阶段表现有所不同，但目标始终指向争取美国国家利益的最大化。     

特朗普贸易保护政策对美欧关系的影响

具有民粹主义色彩的特朗普当选美国总统后强力推行单边主义和贸易保护政策,给传统的美欧关系带来了严重负面影响。其单边主义和贸易保护政策遭到了倡导多边主义与自由贸易的欧盟反对,导致美欧在自由贸易、全球多边贸易体系问题上的分歧加大。该政策还加剧了双方的贸易摩擦,使美欧经贸关系受损。特朗普在贸易关税问题上对欧盟恫吓胁迫,损害了美欧之间的互信与伙伴关系,导致双方关系裂痕加大。鉴于特朗普不大可能改变其单边主义和贸易保护政策,美欧之间的分歧与摩擦今后可能会更加频繁,双方关系未来发展的不确定性也将随之增加。     

跨境贸易人民币结算——正式启动人民币国际化政策

2009年,中国政府正式推出跨境贸易人民币结算试点。经过半年多的准备,7月6日,该试点正式启动。尽管这次试点仅仅涉及到贸易结算,但是其意义远远超越了贸易的范围,它预示着一个重要的时代变化,即中国政府正式打开了人民币走向世界的大门。从这一视点来看,在中国对外金融开放的进程中,2009年是一个重要的里程碑。     

现阶段台湾贸易政策及其影响评析

台湾于2002年加入世界贸易组织（WTO），这意味着台湾作为WTO成员，必须积极调整其贸易及其相关政策，减少、消除贸易与投资的障碍，进一步开放市场，在WTO的国际经贸规范下进行公平的经济竞争。现在5年过去了，台湾总体贸易政策调整情况如何？台湾长期实行的限制性两岸贸易政策有何变化？     

美国思想库与对外政策

在影响美国对外政策制定的各种人群中,有一些人是以专家、学者的身份出现的。如果他们不能被归人权势阶层(the estalishment),也毫无疑问是美国社会精英的一部分。卡尔·多伊奇认为,所谓“精英”,指的是为数非常少的人,他们在某一个基本价值方面所拥有的至少比其他人要多得     

美国贸易保护主义中的国会因素

国会是美国贸易保护主义的中坚力量,本文引用中美贸易新近案例,从背景、原因和方式三个方面分析了上述问题的形成。我们得出的结论是:国会在近期的中美贸易中,制造了消极的气氛,试图通过修改已有的美国贸易法惩罚中国的贸易行为,扮演着中美贸易的"警察"角色。     

美国利益集团政治与对华贸易政策

像其他外交政策一样,美国对华贸易政策建立在国家利益基础之上。那么,什么是美国的国家利益？美国资本主义多元民主政治,美国社会各阶层、各种政治、经济、文化利益集团的政治博弈又是如何在美国的对华贸易政策中表现出来的呢？     

金融危机下美国工会:见闻和思考

2009年2月,应邀访问美国工会十余日.时值新自由主义盛行多年而导致金融危机,同时人们对奥巴马"社会主义"新政多有期冀,其中对工会的所见所闻,留下颇多生动印象,生发几多思考.尤其是工会在新自由主义与"社会主义"之间谋求新的权利构建,让人记忆犹新.     

Analyzing School Finance Policy: Beyond a Quantitative Approach

This paper analyzes school finance policy (SFP) using an alternative hermeneutic approach along the line of fairness. This approach, in comparison with the quantitative approach, guides toward a better understanding of the tensions between the de jure and de facto policies. The analysis focuses on Israel as an interesting case study since its SFP was currently reformed. To this end, trends in legislation, Ministry-of-Education publications, and the Israeli Parliament’s protocols were analyzed. The findings reveal that an SFP is a disharmonic composition of “voices” that affects student outcomes. These findings are relevant to countries with high population diversity who wish to improve their educational attainment.     

Transnational Capital,the US State and Latin American Trade Agreements

This paper examines the role of US-based transnational corporations in advancing trade, investment, regulatory and intellectual property rights provisions within NAFTA and DR–CAFTA. I explore the linkages between US firms, the US state and investment patterns in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic in order to develop a framework for understanding the political economy of these regional trade agreements. I locate the timing of each of these agreements within the context of the goals of a transnational interest bloc that includes US-based transnational firms, US state officials and regional business interests and state bureaucracies in Latin America, with each trying to utilise regional agreements as a substitute for failed multilateral initiatives as well as a springboard for advancing a more aggressive set of protections for investors within bilateral investment treaties. In order to determine the extent to which transnational firms based in the USA have influenced these trade agreements, I explore three interrelated aspects of business influence: the extent to which transnational firms with investment interests in Mexico and Central America were involved in organisations that had regular access to key US policy makers; the historical development of a transnational interest bloc that has linked US firms and the US state to transnational capital and state bureaucracies in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic; and the extent to which the same group of transnational firms has been attempting without success to advance a policy agenda in the WTO that incorporates many of the provisions of NAFTA and DR–CAFTA. The failure of this transnational interest bloc to effect substantial changes in WTO policies has led the bloc to rely on regional trade agreements to pursue its interests.     

Trade Policy,Inequality and Performance in Indian Manufacturing

Many Congolese seem to have withstood their country’s protracted economic crisis relatively well, despite its length and severity. This study analyses whether and to what extent this livelihood paradox can be explained by a strategy of asset depletion. In general, this strategy seems not to have played an important role. Marked reductions in household asset stock were limited to some secondary urban centres. Explanations for this strategy’s limited reach point to a much richer set of asset coping mechanisms which households may have developed regarding assets in times of hardship, and to a concomitant shortage of research strategies to take due account of these.     

From Discourses to Policy: Analyzing the Creation of an Accountability Discourse in Colombia

This article analyses the construction of a public discourse about accountability in Colombia. The article maps the different interpretations that actors make of political ideas related to accountability and their change over a period of 13 years (1991–2014). The article has an interpretive framework and uses content and discourse analysis techniques to identify meanings different actors give to the concept of “accountability” and changes in these meanings. It identifies an academic discourse on accountability, as well as external actors’ discourses that influenced the construction of a public and official discourse in Colombia. It concludes by identifying the effect of this process of building consensus about meaning on the resulting public policy.     

Trade creation,trade diversion and effective protection in the central American common market

Aggregate analyses suggest that the formation of the Central American Common Market (CACM) has resulted in little or no trade diversion, but different conclusions apply when the import data are appropriately disaggregated. Increases in the effective rates of protection for consumer goods have led to increased demand for extra‐regional imports of intermediate inputs and decreased demand for extra‐regional imports of final goods. On balance, the CACM is a trade‐diverting customs union for non‐durable consumer goods: trade‐creating effects are present in Honduras and Costa Rica, but trade‐diverting effects dominate in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua.     

门罗主义——美国拉美政策的基石

门罗主义是美国政府制定拉美政策的基本依据和指导性方针.历届美国总统谈及拉美政策时,都会援引门罗主义的基本原则.自1823年<门罗宣言>发表到波尔克任期内门罗主义的初步确立,迄今已有100多年的历史.本文将论述从<门罗宣言>到门罗主义的历史演变过程,探讨门罗主义对美国拉美政策的影响,并分析门罗主义对美国拉美政策产生影响的原因.     

美国气候变化政策演变特征和奥巴马政府气候变化政策走向

美国气候变化政策发展大致经历了四个阶段,主要表现出如下特点：从地位上看,美国气候变化政策经历了从一般性程度上升到战略性高度的过程;从内容上看,美国气候变化政策是变化性与延续性相结合的产物;从政府首脑来看,其党派属性对气候变化政策影响重大。奥巴马政府任期内,“积极应对”将会成为美国气候政策的主旋律,但是其国内政策能否有效推进取决于多重因素的相互制衡。美国依旧会继续避免作出实质性的减排承诺,并且会继续要求发展中国家也参与到全球温室气体减排中来,只是形式将会更加间接化和多样化,同时会加强与主要发展中国家的合作力度,并有望打破小布什退出《京都议定书》造成的僵局。