The impact of motivational and contextual factors on turnout in first- and second-order elections

Based on voter survey from European election study 2009, we examine the impact of one individual-level motivational factor, i.e. interest in politics, and its interactions with institutional and contextual factors such as compulsory voting, electoral competition and the number of parties on participation in 2009 EP elections and previous national elections. The results show that political interest is more closely connected to turnout in second-order elections which are usually considered less salient. Correspondingly, also the contingent effect of compulsory voting and competition is more evident in EP elections. While compulsory voting substantially decreases the turnout gap between the most and least politically attentive voters in both types of elections, the moderating effect of competitiveness is found only in EP elections.     

Increasingly unequal turnout in Eastern European new democracies: Communist and transitional legacies versus new institutions

Unequal turnout, namely that educated citizens are more likely to vote, has been a long-standing pre-occupation of scholars of political participation and has been shown to exist across established democracies in varying degrees. Using pooled cross-sectional individual level data covering the period from 1990 to 2007 across 12 post-communist new democracies, this paper examines the applicability of existing explanations for unequal turnout in the Eastern European context. The paper shows that while voting procedures explain some cross-national variation in unequal turnout, turnout inequality is likewise shaped over time by processes related to the transition from communism, primarily the fading of initial excitement with democratic elections. The mechanism of learning among mature voters rather than generational replacement dominates the latter process.     

Families,divorce and voter turnout in the US

How large a role does the family play in civic development? This paper examines an important aspect of family influence by tracing the impact of divorce on voter turnout during adolescence. We show that the effect of divorce among white families is large, depressing turnout by nearly 10 percentage points. Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, we demonstrate that the impact of divorce varies by racial group and can rival the impact of parents’ educational attainment, which is generally regarded as the most important non-political characteristic of one’s family of origin. We attempt to explain the divorce effect by examining the mediating impacts of parental voter turnout, active social learning, income loss, child–parent interaction, residential mobility, and educational attainment.     

Reducing complexity in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA): Remote and proximate factors and the consolidation of democracy

Abstract.  Comparative methods based on set theoretic relationships such as 'fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis' (fs/QCA) represent a useful tool for dealing with complex causal hypotheses in terms of necessary and sufficient conditions under the constraint of a medium-sized number of cases. However, real-world research situations might make the application of fs/QCA difficult in two respects – namely, the complexity of the results and the phenomenon of limited diversity. We suggest a two-step approach as one possibility to mitigate these problems. After introducing the difference between remote and proximate factors, the application of a two-step fs/QCA approach is demonstrated analyzing the causes of the consolidation of democracy. We find that different paths lead to consolidation, but all are characterized by a fit of the institutional mix chosen to the societal context in terms of power dispersion. Hence, we demonstrate that the application of fs/QCA in a two-step manner helps to formulate and test equifinal and conjunctural hypotheses in medium-size N comparative analyses, and thus to contribute to an enhanced understanding of social phenomena.     

District magnitude and voter turnout a multi-level analysis of self-reported voting in the 32 Dominican Republic districts

Although studies of electoral participation in established democracies are abundant, little attention has been devoted to Latin American democracies and few studies combine individual-level and contextual-level variables. We focus on electoral participation in 32 districts of a Latin American democracy, the Dominican Republic. Our research question is: how to explain the different impact of district magnitude in Latin America? Most importantly, we find that it has a negative effect on electoral participation whereas theories based on established democracies would predict the opposite. We argue that the negative effect is caused by the stronger influence of clientelism in smaller districts, which surfaces at less salient elections. This argument accounts for previously unexplained findings in studies of Latin America.     

Born to be poor: birthplace and number of brothers and sisters as factors in adult poverty.

Household heads who grew up as members of large families and/or as natives of small towns or rural areas tend to have less education and are more likely to be poor than those coming from small families and/or large cities. Data to support these conclusions have been drawn from two independent sources--a special Social Security Administration supplement to the April 1968 Current Population Survey and findings from the Retirement History Study conducted by the Social Security Administration.     

Political context,policy networks and policy change: the complexity of transition in Hong Kong

Abstract

Central to the debates on the transition of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty is how this process has affected change in the policy process and policy outputs. Many see policy change as a result of the evolving political environment in Hong Kong following the political transition. This article, however, adopts the notion of policy networks and argues that the analysis of policy change cannot be reduced to a simple contextual stimulus – the policy alteration model. A case study – ‘the development of civic education’ – demonstrates the importance of policy networks, as a particular structure of government and group relations in decision making, in explaining the course of policy change. It is apparent that the relationship between regime change and political liberalization, on the one hand, and established networks, on the other, tends to be complex and dialectical in Hong Kong. Despite the importance of sovereignty transition and political restructuring, the effect of contextual factors on public policy greatly depends on the nature of the network involved.     

Citizens versus permanent guests: Cultural memory and citizenship laws in a reunified Germany

This article offers a critique of the optimism generated by the new political culture of ‘European citizenship’ based on a historical analysis of the content and utilisation of citizenship laws in pre‐ and post‐reunification Germany. It argues that even if nationality ceases to be a barrier for democratic governance in a consolidated Europe, this development is likely to affect primarily those who are already citizens of a Member State residing in another Member State. The argument made here is supported by the case of ‘guest workers’ in Germany. Although there is growing evidence that especially the Turkish population in Germany enjoys a vast array of civil, social and locally defined political rights, their franchise beyond the ‘limits of citizenship’ does not alleviate larger impacts of the formalised cultural memory of who qualifies to be a German. The most‐documented example of the persistent strain of genealogy‐based nationalism in Germany is the admission and naturalisation policies applied to the ‘returning’ ethnic Germans from neighbouring states. Based on a comparative analysis of the historic treatment of ‘German’ versus ‘non‐German’ outsiders entering Germany, the article concludes that the still‐dominant definition of Germanness emphasising ancestral lineage (jus sanguinis) poses serious obstacles for the achievement of a civic/political self‐understanding in German society as well as in Europe at large.     

Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament

This article builds and estimates several econometric models that explain and forecast the outcomes of the French elections for the European Parliament. These models show the influence of the change in the local unemployment rate to explain the vote for the moderate Left and the moderate Right in the French elections for the European Parliament. These models appear to be accurate in forecasting the elections of the past, and their behavior for the 2009 French election for the European Parliament is satisfactory.     

Beyond evidence versus truthiness: toward a symmetrical approach to knowledge and ignorance in policy studies

Policy Sciences - Current political developments in established liberal democracies in both Europe and North America have fundamentally called into question the normative relations between truth,...     

关于警察出庭作证问题的调查分析

警察出庭作证是刑事诉讼改革中的重要问题。调查显示,造成警察不出庭的原因在于观念的误区、诉讼结构不合理、证据规则的缺失等。建立我国的警察出庭作证制度不仅必要,而且可行。可从克服立法和观念上的困难入手,调整诉讼结构,完善证据规则,构建配套措施。     

西部民族地区体育产业发展的制约因素及对策初探

随着近几年我国举办各种国际性体育赛事,国内掀起一定的体育热潮,推动了我国体育产业的整体发展,但西部民族地区由于经济、地理环境和风俗习惯等原因,体育产业一直处于落后状态。如何推动西部民族地区体育产业发展是现当今一个热门话题,本文分析西部民族地区体育产业的发展制约因素,初步提出四点发展对策。     

Constitutional courts as veto players: Divorce and decrees in Italy

Abstract. This article argues that constitutional courts in Western European parliamentary systems should be integrated into discussions of how public policies are changed, rather than being viewed as an external veto point. It attempts to bridge a gap between a judicial politics literature that focuses on the micro–level of individual judges' votes and comparative scholarship that operates at the macro–level. A model for viewing constitutional courts as veto players, as a third institutional actor, is proposed and is then illustrated using the cases of legalizing divorce and blocking the executive reissuing decree laws in Italy. The model considers both the indirect and direct influences that constitutional courts can exert on the policy–making process. It also facilitates understanding and explaining the role of courts, as well as legislatures and executives, in conducting the interactions and bargaining that result in policy change.     

To Serve and Survey: French Gendarmes as International Police in Peacebuilding Missions in Bosnia and Kosovo

ABSTRACT

This article scrutinises everyday practices of French gendarmes who were sent as international police in UN and NATO missions in Bosnia and Kosovo. Drawing on qualitative material, it argues that their encounters on the ground largely shaped their practices. Rather than melting into the internationalised peacebuilding milieu, gendarmes endeavoured to serve and survey, that is, to establish relationships with civilian populations as a means to collect security-related intelligence for their national government. The sociology of peacebuilding encounters on the ground thus unveils Peaceland’s social divides and invites to take into account the historicity of the peacebuilders’ societies.     

Environmental Policy as Democratic Proclamation and Corporatist Implementation: A Comparative Study of Environmental Taxation in the Electricity Sector in the Nordic Countries as of 1994

The Nordic countries generally rank as one of the forerunners of environmental policies and figure in the front line with the most ambitious policy goals in international fora. However, since effective environmental action, for instance through environmental taxation, generally puts a burden on industry, a unilateral introduction of environmental measures by one or a few nations may seriously affect their industrial competitiveness, given an open and competitive economy. Given their persistent and often unilateral avant-garde environmental engagement, the paper discusses how the Nordic countries deal with this dilemma. Theoretically, the paper seeks an answer by recursion to Rokkan's famous distinction between functional and electoral/numerical politics. Empirically the paper finds support for the Rokkan perspective through a systematic analysis of Nordic environmental taxation policies, documenting that the two channels of policy making do indeed produce different results that are compatible with a dual-policy solution to the prisoners' dilemma of avant-garde environmental politics.     

Bringing culture back in: pluralism and societal corporatism as contexts of strategic adaptation

Abstract. The limited literature on offshore industrial relations in Britain and Norway has focused on the deviant nature of such arrangements compared to national traditions. The 'newness' of the sector and the special nature of the oil industry have been used to explain the deviance. This study, instead, controls for such factors and shows how contrasting patterns of adaptation can be related to system properties. Industrial relations in the two countries can be viewed as ideal-type approximations of pluralism and societal corporatism. Within the tradition contrasting pluralism and neocorporatism, the dominant perspective has deliberately excluded cultural aspects, stressing instead structural form. The article argues for the reintroduction of culture and shows how British and Norwegian offshore developments reflect fundamentally different orientations towards industrial relations. Culture is not, however, conceptualized as ideosyncratic characteristics of the two countries. It stems instead from different histories of labour-capital relations.     

两湖平原的乡村混混群体:结构与分层——以湖北G镇为例

乡村混混是乡村生活中影响很大的群体。目前活跃的主要是第二代和第三代混混,他们有着独特的群体特征和个性特征,并在混世过程中形成了关系组织结构,组成了独特的乡村江湖联盟格局。乡村混混有特别的混世之道和规避风险的策略,乡村江湖中存在着有规律的社会流动。乡村混混因其在乡村江湖中所处的分层位置不同而享有不同的非法利益。