China-U.S. Trade——the Path of Development

The United States is the world's largest economy and China is ranked number four; together the two countries comprise one third of the global economy. 40% of the international economic growth is sustained by the two countries. In terms of international trade, the United States and China are the first and the third largest trading nations respectively. Trade developments of these two countries have a huge impact on international imports and exports.     

More Combatant Groups,More Terror?: Empirical Tests of an Outbidding Logic

We examine and test the logic that outbidding among insurgent groups results in more suicide terrorism specifically and more terrorism of any type, which has become a popular argument in recent years. A global analysis of terrorism from 1970–2004 provides scant support for the notion that outbidding increases suicide terrorism. An extension of the argument to all types of terrorist attacks provides even less support. The logic of outbidding has received considerable attention in academic and policy circles in recent years. ¹ Mia Bloom, Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005); Andrew Kydd and Barbara Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism,” International Security 31 (2006): 49–80. Similar to the argument that democratic occupation increases suicide terror, ² Robert Pape, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terror (New York: Random House, 2005). our lack of empirical support suggests that considerable cross-national work is still needed to understand suicide terror adequately. We suggest some reasons why this may be the case, drawing particular attention to the problem of overgeneralizing from a limited set of cases.     

Striving to Gain a Long-term Stability for the China—— U.S. Relationship

(I) More than 27 years have passed since the normalization of diplomatic relations between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America.More than 15 years have passed since the end of the Cold War.What exactly is the present situation o…     

Why Counter-terrorism Breeds Yet More Terrorism

The global campaign against terror has achieved considerable success over the past five years since the events of9/11. The Taliban forces in Afghanistan have been destroyed and Al-Qeda has received a devastating blow. In Russia, Chechen secessionist terro…     

A More Pragmatic and Flexible Foreign Policy

During his second tenure, Clinton will pay more attention to diplomatic workand may make some adjustments in his foreign policy while maintainingcontinuity of the policy during his first tenure.1. The guideline of foreign policy of the new administration would be charac-terized by the following three features:     

Cooperation Benefits Both Sides While Confrontation Harms——Thoughts on Strategic Positioning of Sino-U.S. Relations

Sino-U.S. relations are no doubt the most important bilateral relationship in the world today. The state of this relationship not only concerns the vital interests of China and the United States as well as the people of these two countries, but also affec…     

Changes in the U.S.2010 National Security Strategy——Based on Frequency of Word Usage

The National Security Strategy of the U.S. is an important document for understanding U.S. national security policy. This article uses Antconc software to analyze high-frequency word usage patterns in six U.S. National Security Strategy documents from 1990 to 2010. From the micro level of language use, we try to interpret the 2010 U.S. National Security Strategy and explore Washington＇s strategic motives.     

М.Н.卡特科夫的自由主义时代：1856—1862年

1856—1862年是М.Н.卡特科夫的自由主义时代,也是他政治和社会思想形成、发展和变化的时期。他不仅将《俄罗斯导报》办成俄国最著名的文学杂志之一,还利用它大力宣传英国的政治思想、制度特点和改革经验,希望以此来指导俄国的改革,使其成为俄国自由主义的阵地。同时卡特科夫是渐进式改革的坚决维护者,他认为激进的手段不仅不会实现改革的目标,反而会给社会造成巨大的伤害,破坏已经取得的改革成果。在与赫尔岑等虚无主义者的论战中,卡特科夫逐渐从自由走向保守。     

The More Fragmented the Better?—The Impact of Armed Forces Structure on Defection during Nonviolent Popular Uprisings

Authoritarian regimes frequently employ fragmentation to safeguard themselves against coups and reduce the power of the military apparatus. This article investigates the impact of structural coup-proofing in the setting of a nonviolent popular uprising that threatens the regime and its survival. It is argued that in such settings fragmentation can have unintentional consequences with respect to the question whether the army fulfills orders of repression or defects. If the security apparatus is highly divided, some armed organizations will seize the opportunity to defect and side with the protesters because the efficiency of counterbalancing decreases if more effective armed organizations are involved. This can be mainly explained through collective action problems that the security apparatus faces in such a setting. This article compiles data of nonviolent uprisings from 1975 to 2006 and data on armed forces structure for conducting a multivariate probit regression on the probability of defection. The findings indeed show a U-shaped relationship between armed forces fragmentation and the likelihood of defection during nonviolent mass uprisings. While security apparatuses with around two effective armed organizations display only a low probability of defection, minimally and highly fragmented forces indicate higher chances of defection from the ruling regime.     

Sino -U .S .Relations in Retrospect and Prospect——In Commemoration of the 25~(th) Anniversary for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations Between the PRC and the U.S.A

January 1,2 0 0 4markedthe 2 5 thanniversaryfortheestablishmentofdiplomaticrelationsbetweenthePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica .Itisofgreathistoricsignificanceandpracticalvaluetoreviewthecourseandeventsofthoserelations ,tosumupexperienceandlessonsintheirprocessofdevelopment,andtofurtherpushthoserelationsforwardhealthilyintothe 2 1stcentury .Ⅰ　　ThesettingupofdiplomaticrelationsbetweenChinaandtheU .S .hasnotcomebyeasily .Itistheresultofprotractednegotiationsbetweenthetw…     

Enhancing Understanding and Promoting Cooperation for A More Harmonious World——Keynote Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 2013 “Understanding and Cooperation” Dialogue

<正>Distinguished guests,Ladies and gentlemen,Dear friends,It gives me great pleasure to meet all of you in Beijing and join you in the 2013"Understanding and Cooperation"Dialogue.Please allow me to begin by extending my warmest congratulations to the opening of this Dialogue,and my heartfelt     

U.S.—Soviet relations: The global village and the free flow of information∗

For the past sixty‐seven years, the Council on Foreign Relations has dedicated itself to enlarging the public dialogue on matters affecting U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. This effort is to be commended. It stands as a testimony to your strong sense of civic responsibility, and it illustrates yet another way in which America's private and public sectors cooperate in matters of national concern.

Forty‐one years ago, Foreign Affairs published the landmark article—"Mr. X"— calling for a bold new approach to the challenges of the post‐war world. At that time, the international structure and order inherited from the nineteenth century had collapsed, and attempts to replace it were directed from two philosophically distinct and antagonistic power centers. This was the era of the Cold War.

America met those challenges with a sense of daring and determination. The Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, NATO—these stand as testimonials to imaginative leadership and effort. The renewed vitality of Western Europe and Japan—protected by the shield of a strong and effective deterrence—are a measure of its success.

Today, America faces another historic challenge occasioned neither by war nor post‐war dislocations. Rather, it results from changes set in motion by a new and powerful dynamic which in recent years has exploded onto the world scene—the grand spectacle of the Information Revolution.     

J.K.罗琳

她无疑是鼓励女人坚持自我成功的最好教材。从一文不鸣,到身家数十亿。这成功来得如此惊骇乃至可以让人目瞪口呆。     

Carry on the Past Achievements and Create a More Splendid Future

Ⅰ The year 2011 marks the 30th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU). Three decades ago, China's reform and opening up was just started, and full scale reconstruction was under way while many things waited to be done.     

思想.制度.工具

各国国家安全体系建设的相关经验,可以为总体国家安全观指导下的中国国家安全体系建设提供参考和借鉴。国家安全体系一般都有一些必不可少的基本构成要素,但由于各国历史文化、内外环境和发展需求等方面的差异,这些要素的演变历程、具体内容和实际作用可能大不相同。作为超级大国,美国拥有最为庞大、完备且富于自身特色的国家安全体系。这个体系主要由指导思想、法律制度和保障工具三类要素构成。其指导思想是维护全球性主导地位,并带有绝对安全倾向;决策机制既遵循一套完整的跨部门分级流程,也涉及各种非正式决策模式;法律制度与监管机制系统完备;保障工具与手段多样有力,包括超强的军事能力与联盟体系、强大的经济实力与情报体系以及广泛的社会基础。然而,作为一个在冷战中形成的“安全化国家”,美国的安全目标与手段、资源之间存在持续张力;空前庞大的国家安全体系也会受到内外条件的制约,经常陷入能力捉襟见肘、行为进退失据的境地;尽管在国际体系中拥有显著的“权力优势”,美国同样面临发展利益与安全利益之间的矛盾。     

Post-Sept. -11 Sino-U. S. Ties

Like a big rock thrown into the pond of current international power configuration, the event of September 11 revealed the turbulent undercurrents beneath its seemingly tranquil surface. The splashdown effect has spread beyond the United States to reach every corner of our planet. It has triggered realignment in big power relations and will have its far-     

Sino-U.S.Relations

A New View on Sino-U. S. Relations Sino-U. S. relations seem to have emerged into a more positive light in recent years. China and the United States have sustained a strong relationship since 9/11, for the simple reason that international relations at present require mutual     

ID with IE foreign debt——by Mr. Gao Zhikai,Center for China and Globalization

正This is Victor Gao, on behalf of CCG(Center for China and Globalization). It is our great pleasure to attend this important meeting. In today's world,many developing countries have the utmost need to develop economy to build up their capacities. I would urge all countries in the world to provide as much support as possible to the economic development of these developing countries, including both equity and debt. I think nation-building and capacity-building is a very important way to create more jobs and to lift people out of poverty in many parts of the world.     

ID with IE albinism——by Mr. Dai Qingkang,China Society for Human Rights Studies

正This is Qingkang Dai from Southeast University, speaking on behalf of China Society for Human Rights Studies. People with albinism suffer not only from their physical and mental conditions, but also from social prejudices and discriminations. To ensure their enjoyment of human rights, special public policies need to be adopted from two perspectives:     

General debate on ITEM 2——by Mr. Liu Dongxu,Chinese Association for International Understanding

正Current research shows that hatred toward the ethnic minorities derives from unhealthy traditions and institutions of the society. Social media has significant impact on the spread and magnification of hate speech.