The EU in the South Caucasus and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

Despite hopes that it would act as a transformative tool in the South Caucasus to strengthen democracy, stability, security and regional cooperation, the Eastern Partnership (EaP) has produced limited results, with the region more fragmented today than it was five years ago. Russia’s war against Ukraine has further exacerbated the situation, raising concerns over the extent to which South Caucasus countries can genuinely rely on the West. Today, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have different geostrategic trajectories. While Georgia has stuck to the Euro-Atlantic track, Armenia joined the Russian-led Eurasian Union in January 2015. Meanwhile Azerbaijan has the luxury of choosing not to choose. Developments in the region have demonstrated that a ‘one size fits all’ approach does not work and a more differentiated policy is required.     

The EU and the Global Order: Contingent Liberalism

Abstract

Politicians, diplomats and analysts commonly assume that commitment to multilateralism and liberal norms is part of the EU’s very DNA. Increasingly, however, the EU’s commitment to the liberal global order is more selective. We demonstrate the shift to a more contingent liberalism by examining the EU’s recent record in relation to four different challenges: international trade; US leadership; Russian actions in the eastern neighbourhood; and security in the Middle East. We speculate on what this may portend for the EU’s self-identity, European interests and the integrity of the prevailing global order.     

Trump and the End of an Era? The Liberal International Order in Perspective

ABSTRACT

The liberal international economic and political order which the United States created from the ashes of World War II and has since led is in trouble. To United States President Donald Trump, the order which provided the framework under which sovereign states agreed to follow a rules-based system of economic and political cooperation and shared multilateral governance, has not only allowed other nations (in particular, China) to take advantage of US ‘magnanimity’, but also weakened the United States economically, while asymmetric alliances compromised its military advantages. Given the sustained assault this cosmopolitan order is facing, many fear that it may not survive if Trump is re-elected in November 2020. Indeed, if the United States response to the COVID-19 pandemic is any guide, an ‘America First’ agenda, especially a hard-line approach to China, will shape US policy if Trump wins a second term.     

Order and Contestation in the Asia-Pacific Region: Liberal vs Developmental/Non-interventionist Approaches

Abstract

The United States/European-inspired liberal international order has long been challenged in the Asia-Pacific. During the Cold War years, Washington sponsored a developmental, state-interventionist order to contain the threat from Asian communism. This developmental order persisted even as the end of the Cold War allowed the US to promote a liberal regional order. Moreover, after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, the US was increasing constrained by its post-9/11 preoccupation with the Middle East, the rise of China, its responsibility for the Great Recession of 2008-09 and the infighting that consumed Washington. While elements of a liberal order can be found in the Asia-Pacific today, they must continue to contend with non-interventionist and developmental values still found in the region.     

The Transition of the International Order and China's Role

The international order is built on the principles of sovereign equality,national interests,great powers and respect for human rights among others.International rivalry and cooperation have existed side by side over the past few centuries,while the foundations of an intemational order have solidified.We are now seeing a transition in the international order that requires new innovative ways of thinking.China is seen as the key driver of these changes because of its unique status,pattern of growth and future potential.China should embrace this historic opportunity and take on its obligations to contribute to the birth of a new modern international order.     

Contestation and Transformation. Final Thoughts on the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The liberal international order, the inseparable mix of US geopolitical power and ideational project of organising international relations along normative frameworks such as internationalism, institutionalism and democracy, is reeling under the pressure of profound systemic changes such as greater interconnectedness and multipolarity. Predictions abound that increasing great power competition, most visibly at play in geographical areas of contested orders, will eventually tear it down. However, even if major actors – the US included – display a selective, irregular and often instrumental commitment to the liberal order, they are still repositioning themselves in that order and not outside of it. In addition, conflict is not the default outcome of order contestation, as hybrid forms of governance are possible even in troubled regions. No doubt, the world of tomorrow will be less American-shaped and less liberal, but transformation is a more plausible future than collapse for the liberal order.     

Media Dependency: Mass Media as Sources of Information in the Democratizing Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

The theory of media dependency states that for societies in states of crisis or instability, citizens are more reliant on mass media for information and as such are more susceptible to their effects. As there is little empirical evidence of how citizens use mass media in democratizing countries, this article demonstrates that individuals' media use is not only heightened during democratic transition but is also a function of a deliberate information-seeking strategy. Using surveys from six Central and Eastern European countries in 1996–1997, the article presents empirical evidence that citizens of new democracies purposively use the media for obtaining political information. This pattern of media use is especially pronounced in new democracies that have not proceeded very far in the process of democratic consolidation. These findings begin to fill the gap in our knowledge about the role of mass media in democratizing countries and chart clear directions for broadening our understanding of the process of political socialization in such countries.     

#Democracy: social media use and democratic legitimacy in Central and Eastern Europe

Since 1989, many of the former communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have made the dramatic change from communist regimes to democratic nations that are integrated in the European sphere. While these sweeping changes have given rise to a successful transition to democracy unlike any the world has ever seen, there remain issues with governance as well as citizen support for the regime. While other studies have shown that mass media can influence a person's attitudes and opinions in the region, none has explored what effect social media can have on orientations toward democracy in the region. In the following paper, I build several hypotheses based on previous studies of media effects and democratic survival. I then employ survey data to empirically test whether social media increases support for democracy. The study finds that not only does using social media increase support for democracy, but also simple usage rather than information seeking provides more consistent effects on a person's support for democracy in CEE.     

The Major Power Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics in the Transition of International Order

The early 21st century finds great change in international order.China's foreign relations have entered a new phase where its driving force is rapidly rising for the emerging countries and new global economic governance mechanism is gradually established.To follow the trend of the times,China has actively participated in global economic governance and supply of public goods.China' s foreign relations present a new vision,idea and strategy under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.It is a new starting point for China to further integrate itself into the world and open itself wider to the world.China takes an active part to participate in global governance and plays an important role in the issues of economic integration,environmental governance,climate change,nuclear nonproliferation,energy crisis,internet security and anti-terrorism,especially anti-terrorism.This article explains the performance of international relations in current transition order and tries to tackle prior (and in some ways more intractable) issues and to analyze the internal logics and external environment of impact of multi-polarization on China's major power diplomacy with its characteristics in the transition of International order.     

美国对国际核秩序的侵蚀与弱化

美国是国际核秩序的主要创建者、参与者和受益者,维持稳定的国际核秩序符合美国的安全利益。但是,出于战争制胜型核战略、意识形态、盟友关系、地缘政治等方面的战略考量,美国在维持、巩固国际核秩序的过程中,也对国际核秩序造成侵蚀与弱化。美国仍然把核武器置于其国家安全战略的重要位置,重视战术核武器的作用,研发低当量核武器和钻地核弹,模糊了核武器与常规武器的界限,降低了核武器的使用门槛,侵蚀了核价值观。美国追求绝对核优势,部署全球导弹防御系统,研发全球即时打击系统,违反国际核规范与印度进行核能合作,弱化核禁忌等做法,不利于大国之间的战略稳定性,破坏了核规范。在防扩散领域,美国一贯奉行双重标准,缺乏全局观念,对他国进行安全威胁,刺激了核扩散。为维护国际核秩序,美国应从维护全球和平与稳定的长远考虑出发,降低核武器在国家安全战略中的作用,减少缩小核武器的使用范围,停止部署全球范围内的导弹防御系统,放弃防扩散的双重标准,推动核价值观、核规范和核不扩散体制向着更加完善的方向演进,保证国际核秩序平稳、有效运行。     

新世纪俄罗斯与中东欧国家关系探析

苏东剧变后,俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间的关系先一度紧张,后有所改善。此后,中东欧国家先后加入了北约和欧盟。在此过程中和过程结束后,俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间在一定程度上仍然相互敌视,它们之间依然存在着一些矛盾,但是,如较少考虑外部因素的影响,仅从相互关系现实的各个方面来看,双方的关系正不断地加强。这既体现出俄罗斯外交越来越务实的特点,也折射出俄罗斯对外交战略层次的考虑。     

从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。     

中俄国际政治安全秩序观:基于实证分析的比较研究

国际政治安全秩序观是有关国家对国际政治安全秩序的性质、发展趋势、维护路径、本国与之关系等问题的看法、立场和主张的总和,对国家对外行为有重要影响。作为一种抽象的国家观念,它既可见于国家对外政策权威文件,也体现在一国有关国际政治安全问题的对外行为中。通过中俄对外政策文件,考察两国国际政治安全秩序观之异同,并结合中俄有关国际政治安全问题的外交行为,特别是两国在安理会的投票,可以逆向透视两国国际政治安全秩序观。这种互补性研究路径结合文本解读与对外行为分析,使二者彼此验证,可弥补单一路径之偏颇。中俄均主张维护以联合国为核心的国际政治安全秩序的稳定,推动多极化秩序朝更加公正合理的方向发展,维护国际公平正义,反对军备竞赛和外空军事化,反对霸权主义和强权政治,尊重公认的国际法准则与和平共处五项原则,主张通过政治和外交途径解决国际冲突,并非西方所谓的“修正主义国家”。中俄两国在对多极化的理解、维护国际政治安全的手段和依靠力量、欧亚地区秩序、对以联合国为核心的国际安全制度的尊重程度等方面有异。比较而言,中国之“言”(国际政治安全秩序声明)与“行”(维护国际政治安全秩序之行为)更显一致。     

Performativity and the project: enacting urban transport security in Europe

In April 2011, a large consortium of European rail and security suppliers, transport operators and research organisations launched the Secured Urban Transportation – European Demonstration (SECUR-ED) project with the objective of providing public transport operators with the means to enhance urban transport security. Drawing on a detailed study of the SECUR-ED project, this article examines the way in which the problem of urban transport security has been addressed in Europe. It analyses the SECUR-ED project as a performative space, in which risks and capabilities are identified, enacted and contested, and relations across public and private actors are forged. Combining the literature on the performativity of security with John Law’s work on “the project”, the article proceeds by assessing how, in the context of SECUR-ED, connections and continuities are performed across European differences and across public–private space. Hence, it argues that the main function of the project was precisely this: to enact a common security culture, outlook or network in the realm of mass transportation in Europe. This is not a stable culture, but one that is subject to multiple possibilities for re-articulation and mis-performing. The article aims to engage with these moments of re-articulation by focusing on the situated practices of mass transport security. It concludes with a critical analysis of the broader European Union project for security research under the Seventh Framework Programme.     

The Age of Anxiety: The Crisis of Liberal Democracy in a Post-Hegemonic Global Order

The crisis of liberal democracy is closely associated with major global shifts, which have been accelerated by the global financial crisis of 2008, with its dislocating effects in the established democracies of the global centre. Relative stagnation and rising problems of inequality and unemployment, coupled with additional shocks in the form of mass migration and terrorist attacks have generated fertile grounds for the rise of right-wing radical populist sentiments, which have been turned into electoral advantage by charismatic leaders. The crisis of liberal democracy is also a global phenomenon in the sense that liberal democracy has been severely challenged by the rise of strategic models of capitalism, notably its authoritarian version represented by the growing power and influence of the China-Russia coalition. Indeed, the success of the latter has served as a kind of reference for many authoritarian or hybrid regimes in a changing global context, at a time when the key Western powers appear to be losing their previous economic and moral appeal.     

Faith-based HIV response in post-Soviet Eastern Europe: the case of Channels of Hope in Russia,Romania, and Armenia

ABSTRACT

Most of the data available on faith-based HIV response focus on Africa, which is the heart of the pandemic. This article investigates faith-based community-level HIV responses within Eastern Europe, by studying the implementation of World Vision International’s “Channels of Hope” faith-based HIV intervention. The intervention approach was developed in a high HIV-prevalence setting (South Africa) and then implemented across sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere – including three low HIV-prevalence Eastern European settings (Armenia, Romania, and Russia). Drawing from implementation and evaluation research, this article explores the nature, challenges, and potential of faith-based HIV response within low-prevalence, post-Soviet contexts.     

改革开放40年来的中国(中)东欧研究:基于学科建设的初步思考

中国学界对东欧文学和东欧历史的介绍与研究很早就开始了,但从国际问题或世界政治的视角对(中)东欧问题进行全面研究大抵与改革开放同步。从研究对象的变化看,改革开放40年来的中国(中)东欧研究大体分为20世纪80年代的东欧研究和东欧剧变后的中东欧研究。而从研究的系统性和变化趋向来考察,中国(中)东欧研究则经历了一个不对称的“N型”进程,即20世纪80年代到21世纪初的“显学”、2004年数个中东欧国家加入欧盟前后至2011年期间的“险学”以及2012年中国—中东欧国家合作倡议启动以来的“热学”。在此过程中,中国(中)东欧研究的内容与重点不断发生变化,呈现强政策导向性、重热点追踪性以及国别关注非均衡性的特征。与之相适应的是,有关研究机构经历了从恢复新建到骤然减少再到蓬勃发展的过程,从业人员则出现由相对集中到部分改行再到“跨界汇”的趋向。为强化学科建设和提升国际话语权,未来中国(中)东欧研究应重点关注以下几点:剖析老中青三代学人的差异,总结中国(中)东欧研究的阶段性和连续性;查找中国学界与国外学界的差距,归纳中国(中)东欧研究的普遍性与特殊性;探求中国学界对于该区域的定义,形塑中国(中)东欧研究的唯一性或中国范式。     

A Survey of International Studies Programs at Liberal Arts Colleges and Universities in the Midwest: Characteristics and Correlates

International studies majors have become increasingly popular at liberal arts colleges and universities in the Midwest. What are the features of various international studies programs, particularly regarding the degree of "structure" in the major? What factors appear to be related to whether a liberal arts college or university offers an international studies major in the first place? What explains the variations that exist that characterize international studies majors? This paper empirically investigates these questions by surveying sixty-six liberal arts and sciences colleges and universities in Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri. We find that although international studies majors are somewhat prevalent in the "heartland," there is considerable variation in how they are structured. Further, the results suggest that whether or not an institution has an international studies program is largely a function of whether an institution has a graduate program in a field that allows for a concentration in international affairs. We conclude with some observations that might promote future discussion on development of international studies majors.     

信息化进程中国际体系与秩序特征探析

人类文明正在从工业化社会迈向信息化社会,世界各国立足于不同的国情,秉持迥异的发展理念与施政方略,在国际舞台上共同演奏了民族国家竞争角逐、合作互惠、兴衰失衡并存的交响曲,共同造就了当代国际战略格局与世界秩序的全新态势.美国作为信息化浪潮的发源地与最为积极踊跃的推动者,赢得了信息化时代全球博弈的最大红利,依托厚重的经济基础和强大的军事实力,成为短期内难以逾越的单极霸权;而其他从两极格局中分离出来的诸强国以及为信息化、全球化浪潮所催生的多种国际行为体在把握机遇、发展实力、蓄势待发的同时,也于不同的领域与层次上对美国霸权形成一定的平衡与制约.单极主导、多元并存无疑成为步入信息化时代之初国际政治体系最显著的标志,但随着信息化浪潮在深度与广度上进一步拓展,在飞跃与调整的交替中不断前行,世界格局多极化、国际关系民主化、国际社会行为体多元化、从传统的"国家间政治"向世界政治乃至"全球政治"转变等趋势初现端倪,作为未来世界的可能性蓝图正逐渐呈现于世人眼前.从美国全球扩张战略的周期看,从20世纪80年代以来经过近30年持续的攻势态势,已经呈现出疲惫的征兆,在次贷危机和金融危机的影响下,美国很可能要进入一个战略休整期,美国在国际体系中的主导地位也将受到一定程度的削弱.     

Diversity Management in World Politics. Reformist China and the Future of the (Liberal) Order

Given the widely shared belief that, following a long period of crisis, the American-led liberal world order is now in transition, the question arises: what comes next? Considering China’s ‘parallel order-shaping’ project with respect to the liberal order as a harbinger of a ‘multi-order world’, it is reasonable to expect a concert-like mode of ordering, which will draw on a new common language to reach consensus among proactive stakeholders at the global level. Those interested in maintaining the liberal character of this arrangement, such as the EU, should therefore steadily engage in the process leading to its establishment in order to gain and retain full membership while enhancing their discursive power.