Bet Out the Vote: Prediction Markets as a Tool to Promote Undergraduate Political Engagement

ABSTRACT

Over the course of three semesters spanning the 2016 primary and general elections, we conducted a series of quasi-experiments to evaluate the effects of prediction markets on undergraduate interest in the political process. We gave several classes in our institution’s core American politics course the opportunity to collectively invest in election-related markets on PredictIt.org, and over two-thirds of our students reported that the exercise stimulated their interest in the elections and political process. Roughly half also reported reading more news articles because of their participation in the market. While our treatment group did not demonstrate statistically-significant improvement in tangential political awareness, knowledge, or engagement, our findings do challenge previous conclusions that prediction markets have limited capacity to motivate students in an introductory learning context.     

Reforming the Spanish Senate: Mission Impossible?

Attempts in recent years to reform the Spanish Senate have proven futile. Using an institutionalist approach, this article highlights some of the weaknesses of the Spanish Senate in terms of its constitutional design and institutional development. The article explains how attempts at reforming political institutions are influenced by the historical context in which the institution was originally designed and the political context in which it has subsequently developed. The debate over Senate reform is analysed by examining the Senate's institutional setting and its relationships to broader political settings such as the legacy of the transition to democracy, political party discourse, and a competitive culture in Spain's system of intergovernmental relations.     

Normalization of antisemitism, 1880–1900: the case of a Jesuit community in Rome

The significance of the political antisemitism of the 1880s and 1890s for developments in the twentieth century remains controversial. Researchers have been divided as to whether the antisemitism of the nineteenth century, or even earlier, was one of the factors that made the Holocaust possible, or whether it was a phenomenon with little or no relevance for subsequent events. The decline of most antisemitic political parties at the beginning of the twentieth century appears to support the latter point of view. Yet some commentators, such as Shulamit Volkov and Peter Pulzer, have convincingly suggested that the importance of nineteenth-century antisemitism lies less in the political fortunes of antisemitic parties than in the way antisemitism came to penetrate civil society. Thus, they have argued, antisemitism came to form a component of a widespread conservative and anti-liberal world-view. Following Pulzer and Volkov, it might be desirable to investigate the processes by which antisemitism could have been transformed from an extremist political position into a common element in the outlook of broad portions of European society: mechanisms that have remained largely unexplored. Dahl's article studies the normalization of antisemitism in the two last decades of the nineteenth century through a scrutiny of shifts in the attitudes to Jews of a restricted group of Italian Jesuits. The analysis is based on a detailed study of La Civiltà Cattolica, a Jesuit community in Rome that published a journal of the same name. Since its foundation in 1850 this institution has been an authoritative exponent of Catholic policy and is generally perceived as having been a protagonist in the formulation of a Catholic stance towards the ‘Jewish question’ in the later nineteenth century. Dahl shows that, while in the early 1880s, most members resisted or opposed the use of antisemitic propaganda, through the following two decades the attitudes of virtually all of them became tinged with antisemitism, supporting the hypothesis that antisemitism became part of a widespread ‘culture’. In his analysis, Dahl does not focus on the wider circulation of ideas that influenced the Roman Jesuits, but on the dynamics within the institution that made possible the gradual acceptance of antisemitism, arguing that a debate over antisemitism among the Jesuits in the early 1880s was a crucial moment in this development. As they failed at this early stage to formulate an anti-antisemitic response, they allowed antisemitism to become part of the culture of their institution, and rendered its later rejection practically impossible.     

On prediction in political science

This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time-scale.     

Parliament and Political Disengagement: Neither Waving nor Drowning

Concern about political disengagement is prevalent in British politics, and this article seeks to examine what the Westminster Parliament has been doing to address it. Recent reforms and recommendations from various parliamentary committees are examined, including increased use of the Internet to disseminate information about Parliament, the use of online consultation mechanisms, and the tentative extension of parliament's petitioning processes. The discussion is couched in the representative origins of Parliament, its adaptation to democratic politics and the extent to which its response to political disengagement is contextualised by its representational, rather than its democratic, role. The article addresses whether Parliament can approach these issues in a 'holistic' fashion, and as a 'unified' institution within the political system.     

公共管理与政治文明发展的关系研究

公共管理是现代政治文明发展的产物,是政治文明的重要组成部分,因此必然受到政治文明的规制和导引,即它必须体现和弘扬现代政治文明的基本价值。而公共管理则是体现和促进政治文明发展的重要方式。当代中国政府管理现状与现代政治文明的要求还有较大的差距,因此必须在现代政治文明的规制和导引下重构中国公共管理,即它必须注重公共性、民主性、法治性、公平性和服务性。     

廉洁政治:内涵、结构与运行逻辑

十八大报告在党的重要文献中第一次提出"廉洁政治"这个概念,要求做到干部清正、政府清廉、政治清明。从政治发展角度来看,廉洁政治是现代国家治理的必然要求。廉洁政治内涵具有三个理论维度:政治设计、价值取向和实践状态。政治设计为廉洁政治建设提供合法性,价值取向为廉洁政治建设提供发展方向,实践状态让政治设计和价值取向实现统一,从而为廉洁政治建设开辟道路。廉洁政治的内在结构包括廉洁政治观念、廉洁政治关系和廉洁政治行为三个部分,这三个部分具有一定的逻辑关系,从廉洁政治观念到廉洁政治关系再到廉洁政治行为,一个比一个更接近于政治生活现实。建设廉洁政治应遵循并实现法治逻辑、制度逻辑和治理逻辑的统一:法治逻辑要求依法治腐,把所有廉政建设事务纳入法制框架;制度逻辑要求制度反腐,推进宏观层面的行政体制改革、中观层面的廉政制度建设以及微观层面的分权机制探索;治理层面要求实现廉政组织重构、廉政资源配置、廉政信息公开、廉政主体合作等。     

Secure borders,safe haven,domopolitics

What implications do emerging spaces, concepts and identities of security have for the practice of citizenship? This article examines security and citizenship in the UK. As its focus it takes a recent White Paper published by the British government called Secure Borders, Safe Haven (2002). Two arguments are developed. First, it is argued that with this document, and the reforms it proposes for immigration, asylum and citizenship in the UK, we are in the presence of ‘domopolitics’. Whereas political economy is descended from the will to govern the state as a household, domopolitics aspires to govern the state like a home. Consequently, domopolitics and liberal political economy exist in tension with one another. Second, we need new forms of comparison if we are to adequately map domopolitics. To this end, the article compares the domopolitics of the homeland and similar securitizations not with the interstate security games of the Cold War, but with the governmentality of social security.     

The Declaration of Independence As Part of an American National Compact

The Declaration of Independence is an efficient, abstractedsummary of the eighteenth-century American mind. Viewed in thiscontext, the Declaration is not only an efficient summary ofAmerican political thought, but also a careful rhetorical balancingof contending views. The document could be read with approvalby students of Whig political thought, or the Enlightenment;rationalists, or the deeply religious; those jealous of statepower, or nationalists. Indeed, the manner in which state andnational perspectives are balanced make this the first nationaldocument to lay out federalism as a central aspect of Americanpolitical thought. The document also turns out to be part ofa political covenant of the kind long used in America, and originallyderived from covenant theology. Political covenants, calledcompacts in their secular form, would have had the Declarationserve as a preamble and bill of rights to a constitution. Asit turns out, the Declaration of Independence serves preciselysuch a role with respect to the United States Constitution,and is thus part of a national covenant/compact.     

Survival and Institutionalization of an Idea: The Rapid Rise of Intelligent Vehicle‐Highway Systems

Changes in existing institutions and/or the creation of new institutions often follow changes in political agendas and the acceptance of new ideas as viable policy solutions. This article describes the rise of a new policy solution in the early 1990s, an integrated set of transportation technologies—initially referred to as “intelligent vehicle‐highway systems” (IVHS)—and its subsequent survival and institutionalization. As a theoretical contribution, this article expands on the agenda‐setting framework of Kingdon (1995) and the subsequent work of Baumgartner and Jones (1993) on the nexus between agenda access and institutions. Tracing changes in existing institutions within the transportation policy domain, as well as the creation of a new institution devoted to the advocacy of this technology, this study illustrates the significance of ideas and institutions in the public policy process.     

Policy Community Realism versus'New' Institutionalist Ambiguity

There has been widespread interest in the term 'institution' within political science in the past five years. Two principal uses of this are identified. The first is associated with the policy community literature and in this sense the institution is an extra-constitutional policymaking arrangement between ministries and clientelistic groups. The second use of the term is associated with state-centred authors who wish to argue for the relative autonomy of political institutions. In this second use there is ambiguity about the scope of the term institution; whether it is, or is not, intended to be confined to traditional institutions or whether the disaggregated state embraces the newer policy community phenomenon.     

The Racialization of British Politics

The idea of 'race' was an important part of the post-1945 political and ideological context within which migration from the New Commonwealth began. This is demonstrated by an analysis of an important policy document which provides a foundation upon which to evaluate the character and significance of racism in the subsequent political process. This evaluation contrasts and comments upon rival accounts of the impact of racism offered by writers who have analysed official government files from the period. The paper concludes by arguing against a conception of racism which presumes that it is a constant and unchanging ideological bloc within the British political process.     

政治安全问题的微观根源：基于制度与生活逻辑的分析

经济社会的深刻转型与风险社会的渐趋深化，渐次引发了现代理性对传统制度价值的撕裂式解构“，生活的政治”日渐进入民众的日常生活体验中。基于宏观层面的分析视角已然无法有效概括、诠释乃至应对政治安全话语体系中的诸多问题，由此引发的理论迷思与实践困境启示我们应突破国家与社会的实体论和二元对立思想，打通从国家逻辑的宏大叙事到生活逻辑的日常叙事之间的壁障，从而在对政治安全制度逻辑的分析过程中，建构一个基于微观层面的替代性分析框架。制度的失场、僵化以及制度间的抵牾，都会成为政治安全问题衍生的结构性根源，应基于对制度与生活逻辑的细致观察而探寻政治安全实现与维系的微观基础。     

Contrast and Foundation of the Public Oversight Roles of the U.S. Government Accountability Office and the U.K. National Audit Office

This paper examines and compares, according to the New Public Management approach, the U.S. watchdog, the Government Accountability Office, in its ability to oversee and call to account the executive branch of government, and its U.K. counterpart, the National Audit Office. Results of this examination indicate that the Government Accountability Office is more effective than its U.K. counterpart. Its greater effectiveness is attributable to the fact that it derives its powers and legitimacy from a written constitution; in contrast, in the United Kingdom there is no equivalent document defining the relationship between the state and the citizenry. As a consequence, the powers, duties, and self-perception of the National Audit Office are significantly weaker and more mutable than those of the Government Accountability Office.     

试析政治文明的属性

政治文明作为人类社会文明的重要组成部分具有自己独特的性质。探讨政治文明的属性,有利于正确地理解政治文明的内涵,加深对政治文明的认识,更好地为我国社会主义政治文明建设服务。     

Snap Judgment: Implicit Perceptions of a (Political) Court

Do people fundamentally perceive the Supreme Court as a political institution? Despite the central importance of this question to theories of public evaluations of the Court and its decisions, it remains largely unanswered. To this end, we develop a new, implicit measure of political perceptions of the Court. This new measure relies on a categorization task wherein respondents quickly associate political or non-political attributes with the Supreme Court relative to institutions that are high or low in politicization. We find that the public implicitly perceives the Court as less political than Congress (high politicization) and more political than traffic court (low politicization) and that this measure is distinct from self-reported (explicit) perceptions of politicization. Finally, we find that implicit perceptions have a distinct effect on predicting diffuse support for the court and specific support for one of two Court decisions.     

The institutional dimension of election design

The traditional approach to election design focuses solely on the best method to aggregate the preferences of the voters. But elections are run by institutions, and the interests of the institution may not be reflected in the preferences of the voter. In this comment I discuss how institutional considerations come into play in election design in three areas: political representation, corporate voting, and judging in competitions. As an illustration of this institutional approach I appraise the method by which the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences selects the nominees and winners of the Oscars.     

Recht und Politik beim Wandel des deutschen Flächentarifs. Juristen als politische Akteure im System der Arbeitsbeziehungen

This article explores the role of the jurisprudential discourse and the federal labor court on the transformation of collective bargaining in Germany. The gap between rules and behavior contains a source of institutional change. Political actors have to construe the meaning of an institution which means that it can be exposed to incremental change. In this process, the importance of lawyers as institutional entrepreneurs is crucial as they offer interpretations of the meaning and the scope of institutions and thereby shape political action.     

Compulsory voting and political engagement (beyond the ballot box): A multilevel analysis

Proponents of compulsory voting argue that this institution leads to higher levels of political engagement. Opponents of mandatory voting instead argue that forcing people to vote can increase feelings of political alienation and generate lower levels of political engagement. The empirical record on this issue is scarce and inconclusive. This paper revisits this question with a series of multilevel models that evaluate the impact of compulsory voting on different forms of political engagement, using data from all the waves of the Americas Barometer Survey (2004–2014). The results suggest that compulsory voting has a negligible effect on political engagement. However, the results also reveal an interesting interaction. Citizens with low levels of education are more likely to be cognitively engaged with the political process when voting is mandatory.