浅论当代俄罗斯政党体制的变化及特点

2007年对于俄罗斯来说是关键性的一年，被称为“选举年”。第五届俄罗斯国家杜马选举于2007年12月2日拉开帷暮。此次选举对于俄罗斯今后的发展方向以及俄罗斯政党体制的发展有重要意义。第五届国家杜马选举后俄罗斯政党体制呈现出的一系列新的特点，在此基础上俄罗斯政治格局出现了新的变化。     

转型时期俄罗斯总统选举的基本特征及其成因

本文以1991年以来俄罗斯三届总统选举的过程与结果为依据,概括出了转型时期俄罗斯总统选举的基本特征,即在竞选过程中政权因素占主导地位、政党的作用有限、候选人的个人政治魅力与民意取向左右选举结果;在对影响俄罗斯总统选举诸因素(包括政权、选举制度、政党民意等)的具体分析基础上,阐述了这一基本特征形成的主要原因。同时,结合普京时期俄罗斯政治发展的新特点,提出了俄罗斯总统选举这一民主运行机制未来的发展途径。     

俄罗斯经济快速增长的因素分析及2008年预测

2006年俄罗斯经济保持稳定增长态势。2007年俄罗斯的经济形势总体上可以概括为:经济继续稳定增长,增速进一步提高。由于宏观经济环境整体性得到改善,经济增长的内需导向型发展进一步加强,国内经济的基本因素在经济增长中起主导作用,这是俄多年来改革和调整措施逐步生效的结果。为转变增长方式,政府在经济生活中的作用继续增强。受能源供给增长乏力的限制,2007年俄罗斯出口增幅趋缓的趋势不会改变,进口增速远远高于出口增速成为2007年的显著特征。但国际高油价的利益驱动仍会使俄罗斯不断增加石油生产和出口,同时"黑色金子"也是推进俄内需作用扩张的重要基础。值得关注的是金融对经济增长的拉动作用开始显现。我们乐观地认为,2008年俄罗斯继续保持稳定的增长势头。     

1999年俄罗斯经济政策的重大调整及经济形势评估

１９９９年初,俄罗斯政府实行了“经济协议政策”,①制止了经济危机的发展。随着经济形势的好转,俄罗斯对经济政策进行了进一步调整,重点是加强财政－税收政策。俄罗斯经济虽有好转,但问题很多,十分脆弱,卢布继续走低已成定局,而议会和总统选举都会给经济带来影响,俄罗斯经济形势的发展成为国际关注的热点。     

俄罗斯国家杜马选举情况及影响

1995年12月17日,俄罗斯举行了国家杜马(联邦会议下院)选举。此次选举是在俄政坛仍动荡不定,党派斗争仍激烈的严峻形势下进行的,选举结果对俄政局的发展将产生重大影响。 一、选举背景 从1995年上半年开始,俄罗斯各党派和政治组织就开始大造舆论,积极活动,为入选国家杜马而备战,俄政坛呈现出一派杂乱的景象。主要表现在:     

从选前竞争看俄罗斯政局走势

2011年是俄罗斯政治进程中的关键年。目前俄各派政治力量正在全力备战选举，积极调整竞选战略，以期赢得2011年12月议会选举的主动权，进而为2012年3月的总统大选奠定良好基础。未来俄政坛将继续维持统一俄罗斯党一党独大、其他政党力量此消彼涨的总体格局。但俄总统选举存在较大变数，可能结束“梅普组合”“双头鹰”政权架构，迎来新的执政模式，这将对     

2003年的俄罗斯

20 0 3年对于俄罗斯来说 ,是政治选举年、经济增长年和外交调整年。一年来 ,俄政局总体保持稳定 ,经济改革继续深化 ,外交更加活跃。与此同时 ,社会中一些固有问题仍然没有得到有效解决 ,如社会治安受恐怖袭击威胁甚至还呈继续恶化趋势。随着政治解决车臣问题取得进展、国家杜马选举结束和 2 0 0 4年总统选举的举行 ,俄罗斯将进入一个综合治理的新阶段。一、政治普京在前两年增设联邦区、改革议会、依法规范地方政权的基础上 ,2 0 0 3年把改革的重点放在加强对强力部门的控制上 ,同时着力解决车臣问题 ,保证国家杜马选举顺利举行。(一)调整…     

从选前竞争看俄罗斯政局走势北大核心CSSCISSCI

2011年是俄罗斯政治进程中的关键年。目前俄各派政治力量正在全力备战选举,积极调整竞选战略,以期赢得2011年12月议会选举的主动权,进而为2012年3月的总统大选奠定良好基础。未来俄政坛将继续维持统一俄罗斯党一党独大、其他政党力量此消彼涨的总体格局。但俄总统选举存在较大变数,可能结束"梅普组合""双头鹰"政权架构,迎来新的执政模式,这将对俄今后政治生态产生巨大影响。     

普京时期的俄罗斯巨变及其发展趋势——"后普京时代的俄罗斯"研讨会综述

当今俄罗斯正处在一个新的历史发展阶段,在普京总统执政八年后,俄罗斯正面临承前启后、继往开来的关头.新一轮的国家杜马选举以及2008年3月份的总统选举无疑是俄罗斯未来政治生活中的头等大事.     

论俄罗斯的"普京计划"——兼论对中俄关系的影响

在第五届国家杜马选举中,"统一俄罗斯"党的竞选纲领--"普京计划"对该党大获全胜起到了重要作用,并在国家杜马选举结束后继续对俄罗斯政局产生了重要影响."普京计划"现已成为俄罗斯中期发展前景内的治国理念.本文分析了"普京计划"的提出过程、政治背景、政治内涵、政治意义及对俄罗斯政局的影响,并分析了对中俄关系可能产生的影响.     

Cooperation and stability in the mediterranean: An agenda for partnership

Turkey, a candidate state that started negotiating membership in the EU in 2005, has witnessed serious political conflict since April 2007 when the military threatened to intervene once again in the political process. The Chief Prosecutor filed closure cases before the Constitutional Court first against the Democratic Society Party, the first pro-Kurdish party to enter parliament, and then against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) which won a landslide election victory in the parliamentary elections of July 2007. The Court decided by the slimmest of margins against the closure of AKP, allowing the country to narrowly escape one of its worst political crises. The attempted “judicial coup” can only be explained by the state ideology of and the nature of democracy in Turkey. The political conflicts are related not to a fight over dismantling or protecting secularism, but to the power struggle between old and new elites in the country.     

The Homegrown Threat: State Strength,Grievance, and Domestic Terrorism

Scholars maintain that, similar to insurgency, terrorist violence is precipitated by both relative deprivation and state weakness. Yet aggrieved minority groups within a country should turn to terrorism when they are weak relative to the state rather than strong. Empirical evidence shows minority group discrimination and fragile political institutions to independently increase domestic terror attacks. But it remains unclear whether grievances drive domestic terrorism in both strong and weak states. Using data from 172 countries between 1998 and 2007, we find that for strong states the presence of minority discrimination leads to increased domestic terrorism, while for weak states the presence of minority discrimination actually leads to less domestic terrorism. Consequently, increasing state capacity may not be a panacea for antistate violence, as nonstate actors may simply change their strategy from insurgency or guerrilla warfare to terrorism. Efforts to reduce terrorist violence must focus on reducing grievance by eliminating discriminatory policies at the same time that measures to improve state capacity are enacted.     

The Role of Political Exclusion and State Capacity in Civil Conflict in South Asia

Extant literature on intrastate conflict independently explores terrorism and civil war. However, both terrorism and civil war are probably parts of a continuum of intrastate conflict with the former at one end and the latter at the other end in terms of intensity. I argue that two factors play important roles in rebels’ decision-making calculus, namely, the size of their support base and state strength. Terrorism, as a strategy of the weak, is optimal when the rebel groups have little support among their audience and the state is strong. On the other hand, guerrilla warfare is an ideal strategy when such groups have a greater support base and the state is weak. The theoretical argument is tested on a dataset of Myanmar and six countries of South Asia and for 1970–2007.     

Remembering violence: the role of apology and dialogue in Turkey's democratization process

In this article I ask the question: how do citizens use memories of violence in dialogue with a democratizing Turkish state? To address this, I unpack how memories of violence influence solidarity communities in addition to those who are direct descendents of survivors. I also examine how these solidarity communities are widening political space for contemporary dialogue about the Armenian Catastrophe. To demonstrate the connection between memory and political participation, I identify three discursive moments where Turkish and Armenian citizens invoke memory in dialogue with one other and with the state. I use the 2009 online campaign for a Turkish apology to address the Armenian Catastrophe, the aftermath of the murder of Hrant Dink in 2007, and a controversial 2005 academic conference on the events of 1915 as focal points to discuss how memory impacts the way people behave as citizens. My argument is twofold: first, elite-led solidarity networks play an integral role in shaping the discursive space between citizens, the state, and the international community; and second, dialogue about memory can grow space for citizen participation in Turkey.     

Centers of Gravity: Regional Powers,Democracy, and Trade

Classic studies on hegemonic stability and power transition suggest that concentration of capabilities favoring a single state can promote economic cooperation and discourage militarized conflict. However, tests of these arguments have been primarily limited to examining temporal variation in global capability distributions and corresponding levels of system-wide cooperation; few have examined the impact of capability concentration at the region level. In this article, we contend that concentration of regional military capabilities corresponds to lower trade costs for states throughout a region and to an incentive for weaker states to de-prioritize expenditure on the military, freeing resources that can be used to promote trade. As a result, this condition promotes higher levels of trade, particularly within the region. We also argue that democratic regional powers are better able to foster confidence in the sustainability of cooperation; thus, the trade-enhancing impact of concentrated regional capabilities is stronger when the predominant state is more democratic. We find evidence in support of our expectations in statistical models examining state trade between 1960 and 2007.     

俄罗斯新版历史教师参考书对苏联历史的新观点

俄罗斯2007年出版的历史书<俄罗斯现代史1917～2006年>是苏联解体后,经过国家权威部门认定的第一本历史教师教学参考书.它对于苏联历史和苏联历史人物具有了与戈尔巴乔夫时期不同的评价,引起全球范围的关注.西方认为这是普京重新评价苏联历史和斯大林,是"从民主体制的倒退".该书否定苏联解体的主要原因在于苏联社会主义体制或日苏联模式已经丧失了发展的潜力.该书充分肯定了斯大林领导卫国战争取得胜利和实现工业化和文化革命的巨大功绩,肯定了斯大林民族政策正确的一面,因而称"斯大林被视为苏联最成功的领导人";但也没有回避斯大林和斯大林时期的问题,如,轻工业的恢复落后于重工业,农业的落后面貌没有大的改善,巨大的成就是通过极大压制民众所取得的.该书明确指出,戈尔巴乔夫、叶利钦等执政者应当对苏联解体承担主要责任.认为"苏联解体并没有命中注定的必然性".     

Food riots as representations of insecurity: examining the relationship between contentious politics and human security

The 2007–08 global food crisis saw the eruption of a wave of contentious action across the developing world, represented most clearly by the food riot. Food riots are sudden, unexpected events, presenting a challenge to the state that moves beyond simple demands for food. The upheaval caused by a food riot can lead to lasting instability and violence as social and political structures are challenged. The aims of the article are to: (1) identify the character of contemporary food riots in relation to traditional forms; (2) determine the extent to which food riots can be seen to represent broader human insecurity; and (3) demonstrate the utility of contentious actions in demonstrating insecurity. This article examines the causes of the 2007–08 wave of food riots in relation to earlier manifestations. The findings show that the contemporary food riots have similar origins to their historical counterparts. The article also shows that food riots are a clear sign of insecurity, demonstrating the benefit of examining contentious politics in this context.     

Women and globalisation: challenges and opportunities facing construction workers in contemporary India

This article identifies the opportunities and constraints faced by female construction workers in urban India, citing empirical research conducted in the city of Ahmedabad. The Self-Employed Women's Association (SEWA) conducted three surveys in 1998, 2003, and 2007 to learn more about the needs and priorities of construction workers in the context of economic globalisation. While enthusiastically endorsing the role that training and certification can play in providing skilled women with opportunities for quality employment, the author emphasises the need for wider policy intervention at the state and national levels to ensure that such programmes have replicable, sustainable, and gender-equitable results.     

Bargaining,Fear, and Denial: Explaining Violence Against Civilians in Iraq 2004–2007

From mid-2004 to mid-2007, the Iraq war was distinguished from other comparable insurgencies by its high rates of civilian victimization. This has been attributed to a number of different factors, including the role of Islamic fundamentalist groups such as al-Qaeda in Iraq as well as the regional ambitions of Iran and Syria. Using an unpublished dataset of violence in Iraq from 2003–2008 from the Iraq Body Count (IBC), this paper argues that the violence against civilians is best understood as a combination of three interacting logics—bargaining, fear, and denial—that are predominantly local in character. First, armed Iraqi actors bargained through violence both across and within sectarian communities, and were driven by mechanisms of outbidding and outflanking to escalate their attacks on civilians. Second, the pervasive fear about the future of the Iraqi state encouraged the “localization” of violence in Iraq, particularly in the emergence of a security dilemma and the proliferation of criminal and tribal actors. Finally, Islamist groups such as al-Qaeda in Iraq played the spoiler in Iraq, using mass-casualty attacks to generate fear among the population and deny U.S. efforts to build a functioning state. Only by addressing each of these three logics as part of its counter-insurgency strategy can the U.S. put an end to violence against civilians and develop the Iraqi state into a credible competitor for the loyalties of the population.     

Topics in terrorism research: reviewing trends and gaps, 2007-2016

ABSTRACT

The topical focus of research on terrorism has frequently been critiqued for being too narrow, too event-driven and too strongly tied to governments’ counterterrorism policies. This article uses keyword analysis to assess the degree to which these issues remain present in the literature on terrorism as represented by the 3.442 articles published between 2007 and 2016 in nine of the field’s leading academic journals. Several fluctuations notwithstanding, research on terrorism has retained a strong focus on al-Qaeda, jihadist terrorism more generally, and the geographic areas most strongly associated with this type of terrorist violence. Results also indicate that the field remains event-driven and consistently underemphasizes state terrorism as well as non-jihadist terrorism, such as that perpetrated by right-wing extremists.