中国国库最优现金余额的测算与评价——基于Baumol模型扩展的理论分析与实证研究

近年来我国国库现金余额急剧上升,出现了两难并存的局面--高额国库现金闲置的巨大时间价值损失和国库现金波动对央行货币政策造成显著影响.国库最优现金余额的准确测算是解决这些问题的前提和基础.对此,从理论上扩展Baumol总量现金管理模型,构建了国库最优现金余额模型.研究发现,国库最优现金余额与政府年度财政支出、市场年度收益率、年度借款成本、债券与现金的转换成本等变量之间具有平方根关系.运用我国政府国库现金和相关指标进行实证分析,得出我国国库最优现金余额在831.59亿元～910.51亿元之间;并以此为标准评价近年来我国国库现金状况.研究发现近年来我国政府存在近万亿的闲置国库现金,测算表明闲置国库现金的时间价值损失平均每年在100亿元以上.高额闲置国库现金从一个侧面反映了我国国库财务管理的低效率,迫切需要提高政府财务效率水平.     

The State of American Federalism, 2001-2002: Resilience in Response to Crisis

The past year has been one of repeated shocks to governmentand the larger society. Terrorist attacks in New York City andWashington, D. C., the burst of the dot.com bubble in the stockmarket, a wave of corporate scandals, and a slowdown in theeconomy posed severe problems for officials of all governmentsin the federal system. The combined effects of the war on terrorismand the economic turmoil forced federal policymakers to createnew agencies and to enact new policies. State and local governmentsalso responded to the multiple shocks with a variety of initiatives,often independent of Washington. Instead of a move toward centralizationthat might have been predicted as a consequence of the seriousshocks, all elements of the American federal system demonstrateda capacity and energy to marshal resources in a time of urgency.     

挑战与回应:意识形态危机与主流意识形态的重塑

意识形态是政治权威政治合法性的一个重要源泉。加强以马克思主义为核心的主流意识形态建设,是我们建设中国特色社会主义的不可缺少的重要组成部分。随着社会的全面转型,我国的思想文化领域出现了意识形态的多样化和主流意识形态的淡化、弱化,意识形态领域产生了严峻的信仰和认同危机。这就需要大力加强主流意识形态建设,不断提高其适应力、整合力、引导力、认同度,为党的执政地位提供持续的合法性源泉。     

Workers' compensation: 1980-84 benchmark revisions

The first workers' compensation program was introduced 80 years ago. Its purpose was to compensate occupationally injured workers and their families for lost wages and medical expenses from job-related injury, regardless of fault. Today, each of the State and Federal programs that provides coverage to more than 86 percent of the work force uses a combination of private insurance, State or Federal funds, and self-insurance to meet its benefit obligations. The workers' compensation program is of continuing interest to the Social Security Administration (SSA) for several reasons. Since 1965, Social Security Disability Insurance benefits have been subject to reduction if such benefits, when combined with those provided under workers' compensation laws, exceed 80 percent of the worker's earnings. Because the two programs have gaps in protection as well as duplication in coverage, a periodic review of the workers' compensation program is necessary. In addition, SSA administers Part B of the Black Lung program--established to provide income-maintenance protection to coal miners disabled by pneumoconiosis--to about 1 million beneficiaries whose claims were filed before July 1973. This article provides revised benchmark data on the workers' compensation programs and presents a review of program operations during the early 1980's.     

The evolution of employment in Mexico: 1895-1980

Employment figures from the Mexican national census are the basis for this analysis of employment changes in Mexico between 1895-1980. The work identifies longterm trends in the volume and composition of employment and distinguishes 3 main periods in the evolution of employment. The first period, from 1895-1930, marked the end of a stage of development lasting until about 1907 in which sufficient internal stability was achieved to support Mexico's entrance into the world market. Export of agricultural products and metals was the principal focus of economic growth. Construction of roads and railroads was a central element of progress. But economic and social problems manifested in regional disparities, concentration of wealth, conflicts between economic sectors, low pay for agricultural workers, and fierce social and political control characterized the period and culminated in the Mexican Revolution. After the first decade of the 20th century the ability of the economy to absorb new workers began to decline, and the falling of crude activity rates was not reversed until the 1940s. During the 1920s, total employment increased less than 6%, reflecting a net increase of 403,000 male workers and a decrease of 110,000 female workers. The second major period of employment from 1930-1970 saw the change from an economy based on export of primary products to one based on manufacturing for the internal market. There were 2 subperiods, a stage of transition from 1930-50, the economy registered marked fluctuations, but by the 1940s the consolidation of state power and important reforms permitting expansion of the internal market were factors in an accelerated growth of employment relative to the preceding intercensal period. Despite considerable increases in agricultural employment, the relative share of the agricultural sector in total employment was beginning a decline. Employment registered the highest growth rates of the century in the 1940s and exceeded population growth. The increased employment was explained by accelerated growth and accumulation in manufacturing along with increases in commerce, services, construction, and agriculture. From 1950-70, industrial development was consolidated, and there was a generalized expansion in employment in manufacturing as well as in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The economy was less able to absorb new labor, primarily because the agricultural sector had reached the limits of expansion in both the commercial and peasant sector by 1965, at just the time that population growth was most rapid. During the 1970s, manufacturing employment grew less rapidly because of modernization, almost exclusive orientation to the internal market which limited expansion, and scarcity of funds for importing capital goods. A new model of growth will be needed if Mexico is to escape its present stagnation, and a significant share of economic activity will need to be oriented to export. Until this process is consolidated, the national economy is unlikely to show signs of sustained recuperation.     

A Conservative Revolution: The Electoral Response to Economic Crisis in Ireland

Abstract

The 2011 election in Ireland was one of the most dramatic elections in European post-war history in terms of net electoral volatility. In some respects the election overturned the traditional party system. Yet it was a conservative revolution, one in which the main players remained the same, and the switch in the major government party was merely one in which one centre-right party replaced another. Comparing voting behaviour over the last three elections we show that the 2011 election looks much like that of 2002 and 2007. The crisis did not result in the redefinition of the electoral landscape. While we find clear evidence of economic voting at the 2011 election, issue voting remained weak. We believe that this is due to the fact that parties have not offered clear policy alternatives to the electorate in the recent past and did not do so in 2011.     

Reversing Directions: A Ranking and Comparison of Key U.S. Intergovernmental Events, 1960-1980 and 1980-1995

Based on surveys of scholars and practitioners, this articleranks and evaluates the significance of intergovernmental eventsand trends of I980 to I995, and also compares these with similarrankings for 1960 to 1980. The most important events of the1980 to 1995 period were found to be those that generally diminished,or potentially may diminish, the role of the federal governmentin intergovernmental affairs. It was also found that the eventsand trends which scholars rated highly for 1960 to 1980 generallyremained the top events and trends of that period as viewedby current scholars. It is concluded that events and trendsthat seem important and influential at this point in lime probablywill remain comparatively significant, even when evaluated inthe context of the passage of time.     

Demographic dynamics of urban growth in Mexico: 1940-1980

"In this article, the author analyzes the relationship between growth rates and the sizes of cities [in Mexico] to determine what kind of cities are the most dynamic ones in terms of their demographic growth during the 1940-1980 period. [His findings contradict] the widespread belief that in Mexico, as of 1970, there has been a process of 'metropolitanization' and of 'growth of intermediate cities'." He proposes changes to current population policy, which attempts to control urban growth through regulation. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Mission Evolution: The United States Forest Service's Response to Crisis

After a long history as a bureaucratic success story, the United States Forest Service (USFS) found itself embroiled in crisis beginning in the late 1980s. This study examines the factors that led up to the crisis, arguing that the agency had become captured by its own core technologies. Historically, the USFS was successful in adapting to changes in its environment by employing its traditional management procedures. However, attempting to incorporate the northern spotted owl issue with its traditional core technologies threw the subsystem into crisis, during which the agency lost control over its management activities. Today, the USFS is attempting to adapt to the changes brought about by the political conflict of the era.     

Gubernatorial Transitions: Lessons From the 1982-1983 Experience

The 1982 gubernatorial elections led to transitions betweenoutgoing and incoming administrations in seventeen states. Thisarticle is an overview of what transpired during those transitionsbased on studies conducted by state analysts in sixteen of theseventeen states. While politics was still a major part of thecontext in which the transitions occurred, the fiscal situationin the states framed the transitions, and there was an apparentincrease in professionalism. Not all was politics. Further,transition is a longer period than normally understood, startingwell before the election and continuing until the legislaturehas adjourned.     

From natural to controlled fertility: Mexico, 1950-1980

Mexico's demographic transition was much later and more rapid than the classic transitions of European populations. A careful study of available data sources, especially fertility surveys, allows a detailed understanding of the reproductive process in Mexico, including the nuptiality patterns that influence fertility as well as changes in general and marital fertility. This work assesses the data sources and methods utilized to analyze Mexican fertility in the past, reviews fertility trends before the onset of the transition from about 1940-70, and describes the new reproductive patterns observed since about 1976. Fertility information from the decinnial censuses is not very adequate for measuring fertility levels or trends. Possible estimates based on census information are few and widely scattered in time, and omissions, underregistration, and faulty declarations are common because of the retrospective nature of the census. Census information is highly aggregated so that significant intermediate variables are not easy to assess. But census data are still the only source allowing estimations of fertility levels by areas of residence, administrative entities, and their social and economic characteristics. Mexico's vital statistics are of poor quality, with underregistration and late registration common. Evaluations of the Mexican Fertility Survey (EMF) of 1976-77 indicate that it provides more reliable estimates than the vital statistics or the census. The EMF and the National Demographic Survey (END) of 1982 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by 30.3% between 1974-80, from 6.27 to 4.37. Both the EMF and the END were national level surveys which collected complete fertility histories thus providing longitudinal information on the marital and fertility histories of women aged 15-49. This work uses primarily data from the EMF and END to analyze the period of fertility increase between 1940-60, the period of highest fertility between 1950-70, and the transition from a natural fertility regime to one of fertility control after 1970. The analysis contains 2 major parts, 1 presenting a study of general fertility including age specific rates for generations and periods, final family size of women terminating their childbearing, and the calendar of fertility for women still of fertile age. The 2nd major section focuses on marital fertility using the same indicators but taking into account the relationships between nuptiality and fertility. Comparisons are included between fertility levels based on the major surveys and those implied by the census and vital statistics data.     

Narrative analysis for the policy analyst: A case study of the 1980–1982 medfly controversy in California

Narrative policy analysis provides a way of analyzing those highly uncertain and complex policy issues whose truth-value cannot be ascertained and about which the only thing practicing policy analysts know are the stories policymakers use in articulating these issues. One extremely well-documented controversy, the 1980-82 California Medfly Crisis, illustrates how a comparison and analysis of the structure of the dominant stories in that controversy reduces some of its underlying uncertainty. By focusing on the differential risk perceptions reflected in the stories, narrative policy analysis identifies an important area in which conventional policy analysis could have contributed to the controversy's resolution.     

The participation of women in urban labor markets in Mexico: 1970-1980

This article analyzes the presence of women in urban labor markets in Mexico during the 1970s in terms of the regional location of the city and the type and diversity of employment opportunities for women. 49 cities with over 100,000 inhabitants in 1980 were grouped into 3 regions, the relatively urban and industrial north, the heterogeneous center, and the less developed south. Census data for 1970 and 1980 on male and female labor force participation in the municipios containing the 49 cities were analyzed to assess urban labor markets. The cities were grouped according to whether they had higher or lower than average rates of labor force participation in the 2 study years. The cities of the north included the greatest relative number of cases of low female and male labor force participation in 1970 and 1980 and a declining trend for the 1970s. Cities of the center had the highest levels of male and female labor force participation in both 1970 and 1980 and showed a trend toward increasing female participation in the 1970s. Cities in the south were in an intermediate position, but during the 1970s a high percentage showed a trend toward increase in male participation and decrease in female participation. Typologies of the cities were then constructed based on female age specific participation rates and female occupational distribution. Urban areas with high rates of participation among young women aged 15-24 years were distinguished from those with high participation rates for younger and older women, and those with less diversified employment opportunities for women were distinguished from those with more diversity. Female participation presented marked variations between regions. In general, women participated to a greater degree in diversified labor markets that absorbed workers of different ages and degrees of qualification. There were not necessarily more female workers in cities that were more dynamic in terms of economy and male participation. Cities of 100,000 or more inhabitants in the center were characterized by a high proportion of women of different ages in the labor market. Cities in the north had lower average levels of female participation although those on the northern border had a high participation of young women in manufactures and assembly. Southern cities employed women in manual occupations, especially in commerce and services. Primarily adolescents under 15 and women over 25 were employed. Apart from the regional variations there were variations in female employment within regions. An annex discusses the study methodology in greater detail.     

Norway in the 1980s: Competitive Adaptation or Structural Crisis? A Comment on Katzenstein's Small-State/ Flexible-Adjustment Thesis

The article comments on Katzenstein's small-state/flexible adjustment thesis on the basis of the recent economic development in Norway. It is argued that the Norwegian case in the 1970s and 1980s provides a quasi-experimental situation where the years before and after the 1986 oil-price fall permit a discussion of some of the limitations of his theory. The article argues that the Katzenstein thesis needs qualifications on at least three points: (1) Size and competitive exposure do not always coincide, as assumed in a strong formulation of the thesis. (2) A discussion of national competitiveness based on highly aggregated indicators may miss important sectoral differences that can be of crucial importance to the national political economy. (3) The question of the adaptive effects of integrative, negotiated and non-polarized styles of policy-making in small states has to be modified. Because Katzenstein's basic idea seems theoretically sound, and seems to hold up to at least aggregated data, the issue is not rejection, but rather a modification, and an attempt to specify some of the elements that constitute the relevant condition-set.     

国际金融危机下劳资关系利益均衡路径分析

自2008年下半年以来，国际金融危机对我国经济发展的不利影响开始逐步显现，从目前来看，这场国际金融危机还在蔓延和深化，国际金融市场仍处于动荡之中，全球实体经济受到的影响日益显现，世界经济增长明显减速。受其影响，我国经济运行也面临很多困难，未来一个时期，经济社会发展的总体环境将可能更加严峻。面对当前严峻复杂的国内外经济形势，如何处理当前的劳资关系问题，保持劳资关系的利益平衡，的确给工会带来了很大的挑战。