Support for Le Pen in France: Two Elections in Trompe l'œil

There is a comforting consensus among political commentators that the 2007 presidential election marked the end of Jean-Marie Le Pen as a force in French politics. The shock election of the Front National leader to the presidential run-off in 2002, by contrast, is explained as a surge in the Le Pen vote specific to the prevailing electoral conditions. This article challenges that interpretation of both elections. It shows that, despite Le Pen's unforeseen success in 2002, there was no surge of support for him, and that despite Le Pen's supposed collapse in 2007, he won close to 4 million votes while popular agreement with his ideas rose to its highest recorded level. The article concludes that Le Pen remains a powerful presence in French politics and that his supporters continue to constitute a large and highly influential constituency.     

Advance or consolidation? The French national front and the 1995 elections

This article seeks to analyse the performance of the leader of the French National Front, Jean‐Marie Le Pen, and that of his Party, at the Presidential and Municipal elections of 1995. The elections took place after a period of apparent stagnation in the Front's political fortunes. Le Pen's relative success in the Presidential election was followed by the Front's capture of three significant towns at the municipal elections. However, its victories were in large part facilitated by the failure of the mainstream parties to rally against it. The elections ushered in a period of organisational and ideological change within the Party, which has, none the less, firmly established itself in the French political system.     

Jean Thiriart in Cairo and Bagdad

ABSTRACT

In the ‘poor’ result achieved by Jean-Marie Le Pen in the 2007 presidential elections, many commentators saw the demise of the Front National. However, when asked by a journalist whether it was the end of her father's political career, Marine Le Pen smilingly replied: ‘I don't think so. In any case, this is the victory of his ideas!’ In this question and answer lies the whole story of the Front National and its impact on mainstream politics in the past two decades. First, Le Pen's defeat was exaggerated, the same way his victory had been in 2002. What Mondon argues in this paper is that the 2002 presidential elections did act as an ‘earthquake’ within French politics. However, this ‘earthquake’ did not trigger a tsunami of support for Jean-Marie Le Pen, but rather a tidal wave of misinformation and misunderstanding as to the real significance of the election results. By concentrating on the 2002 and 2007 presidential elections, Mondon highlights how this reaction led to the consecration of right-wing populist politics, best exemplified in the landslide election of Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007. He also provides an insight into the slippery slope Sarkozy's government took after its election, leading to an extremely rightward-leaning 2012 presidential campaign and new heights for the Front National.     

‘It's the quality of government stupid’ explaining patterns in support for far right in the 2022 French presidential election

One of the most important transformations of European politics in recent decades is the rapid expansion of the share of population that vote for parties characterized as populist radical right (PRR) parties. This research note suggests that declining quality of government increases support for populist radical right parties. Using the latest rounds of the European Quality of Government Index (EQI) survey data that sampled at the NUTS 2 regional level in France, and exploiting the fact that the French, presidential elections contained the same candidates (Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen) in 2017 and 2022, we show that regions increase their vote share for Le Pen where the quality of government decreases. We also show that this relationship holds at the individual level. Thus, supplying quality, impartial and fair public services seem to stifle demand for nativism, ethnic favoritism and authoritarianism and suppress support for the PRR party agenda.     

A Natural Centre-Left Majority?

This article concerns the relationship between policy and voter elasticity on either side of the political spectrum as an explanation of the left's post-war political failure. The core contention is that left-oriented voters are more responsive to slight deviations in policy. This is used to explain partially Labour's post-war failure to dominate power even when the 'left's vote' was over 50 per cent.     

Political Communication and the Unexpected Outcome of the 2002 French Presidential Elections

ABSTRACT

The results of the first round of the 2002 French presidential election were a profound shock. Prime Minister Jospin did not make it to the final round run-off, beaten as he was by the far right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen who claimed second place. This article argues that use (and misuse) of modern campaigning methods proved decisive to this outcome. Paradoxically, Jospin's overtly professional approach actually hindered him. His flawed strategy failed to target crucial voters, and assorted tactical decisions compounded this error. Nor did the media coverage and distorted public opinion polls help a beleaguered Jospin candidacy. In this election the cautious would be the main beneficiaries.     

British nationalists’ new start

The right‐extremist Front National, led by Jean Marie Le Pen, has gained significant support among the electorate. The Front's campaign is populist and it exploits the resurgence of xenophobic feeling in France, using the imagery of antisemitism to influence public opinion.     

Housing and populism

Abstract

The recent success of populist candidates in the UK and Continental Europe has sparked a major debate between those who view populism as a reaction of the economically ‘left behind’ and those who view it as a cultural ‘backlash’ by groups with declining social status, pointing to stark divisions between urban and rural areas, core and periphery. This paper bridges the economic and values-based approaches to populism by arguing that the geography of wealth inequality offers a convincing explanation for the pattern of populist vote share. Drawing on fine-grained house price data in the UK and France, it is shown that the pattern of house prices ? even within small districts ? plays a major part in shaping support for Brexit and Marine Le Pen. The findings illustrate how longstanding variation in local wealth shapes the geography of discontent and drives populist appeal. Populism, the article concludes, is primarily a politics of place, and place is a product, in part, of the housing market.     

The Personal Vote in Australian Federal Elections

Although there has been little reliable evidence to date, the 'personal vote' for local Members of Parliament in Australian elections is generally thought to be negligible by political scientists. This article analyses new data from the 1987 Australian National Social Science Survey which demonstrate that the personal vote is a significant factor in federal lower house elections even when numerous other variables known to influence voting behaviour are controlled for. The data allow a calculation of the potential electoral effect of the personal vote which shows that it could be worth at least ³ per cent in some circumstances. The analysis tests for varying levels of personal voting in safe and marginal seats, Labor and coalition seats, urban and rural seats and according to the length of time the incumbent has been in office. Lastly, the electoral effects of the social background of local members are examined.     

Still ‘like birds on the wire’? Freedom after neoliberalism

In this paper I suggest that we might understand some features of contemporary populism by reworking the concept of ‘authoritarian populism’ first proposed by Stuart Hall in his analysis of ‘Thatcherism’. Following a brief review of my earlier analytics of ‘governing through freedom’, I suggest that while the political movements identified by the names of Trump, Wilders, Le Pen, the Austrian Freedom Party, the True Finns etc. may be ephemeral, it is worth considering whether they are beginning to articulate a new set of rationalities and technologies for governing ‘after neoliberalism’. I analyse some key elements of these movements, the new epistemologies that they employ and the ethopolitics that they espouse, and suggest that the key operative concepts may be ‘the people’, security and control. We may still be ‘birds on the wire’ as Leonard Cohen once put it, but perhaps what we are enjoined to seek in these strategies for ‘governing liberty’ is not so much freedom but security.     

Charismatic female leadership and gender: Pia Kjærsgaard and the Danish People's Party

ABSTRACT

Research on the leaderships and electorates of populist right-wing parties emphasizes that most of these parties are charismatic and male-dominated, both as regards their leaderships and their voters. However, while studies about the gender gap focus mainly on demand-side factors, such as electoral support, socio-economic characteristics and the voters’ attitudes towards issues such as immigration, those that analyse the role and position of gender issues are still rare. Similarly, or even more, overlooked is an analysis of the rhetoric, style, charisma and discourse of populist female leaders, such as those representative of two now well-established Scandinavian populist right-wing parties: the Dansk Folkeparti (DF, Danish People’s Party) and Norway’s Fremskrittspartiet (FrP, Progress Party). Both parties have long been led by women although Pia Kjærsgaard of the DF recently stepped down, leaving the party leadership to Kristian Thulesen Dahl, a man of the younger generation of party members; Siv Jensen in Norway smoothly followed the long-term and charismatic leadership of Carl I. Hagen in 2006. The main focus of the paper, however, is on Pia Kjærsgaard, discussing the role gender plays in relation to her style, rhetoric and/or discursive strategies, but also in the gendered constructions featured in the Danish mainstream media. In the article, Meret also refers to the case of Marine Le Pen and the Front national (FN) in order to consider whether the Nordic cases represent a specific framework for female leadership, highly influenced by context and opportunity.     

Short notices

E. J. Feuchtwanger, From Weimar to Hitler. Germany 1918–1933. London: Macmillan, 1993. x+376pp. Appends. Notes. Bibl. Ind. £45.00.

David Welch, The Third Reich: Politics and Propaganda. London: Routledge, 1993. xvi+203pp. Notes. Bibl. Ind. Illus. £30.00.

Walter L. Adamson, Avant‐Garde Florence. From Modernism to Fascism. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993. xiv+338pp. Notes. Bibl. Ind. Illus. £31.95.

Melvin M. Leiman, The Political Economy of Racism: A History. London: Pluto Press, 1993. x+272pp. Notes. Bibl. Ind. £13.95.

Gilles Bresson and Christian Lionet, Le Pen. Biographie. Paris: Editions du Seuil (Les Épreuves des faites), 1994. 480pp. Ind. Illus.     

Unilateral Politics

Phillip J. Cooper, By Order of the President: The Use and Abuse of Executive Direct Action
William G. Howell, Power without Persuasion: The Politics of Direct Presidential Action
Kenneth R. Mayer, With the Stroke of a Pen: Executive Orders and Presidential Power     

Towards more flexibility of government expenditure: Some recent developments in The Netherlands

As government revenues diminish, budgetary discretions or flexibilities have similarly decreased. A pressing question is therefore how to minimize the inflexible elements or components of a budget. This article distinguishes between technical and political inflexibilities as they are reflected in the budgetary process and argues that the latter are much more difficult to correct. After drawing some examples from studies of the Dutch national budget, the article proposes the use of reconsideration reports as a means to alleviate the politically inflexible components of the budget, as well as a way to assess government programs.I am grateful to Dr. L. J. C. M. Le Blanc, former Director General of the Budget in the Dutch Ministry of Finance for his valuable critical remarks and suggestions to earlier drafts of this article.     

The 2016 Referendum,Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate‐level Analysis of the Result

Why did Britain vote for Brexit? What was the relative importance of factors such as education, age, immigration and ethnic diversity? And to what extent did the pattern of public support for Brexit across the country match the pattern of public support in earlier years for eurosceptic parties, notably the UK Independence Party (UKIP)? In this article we draw on aggregate‐level data to conduct an initial exploration of the 2016 referendum vote. First, we find that turnout was generally higher in more pro‐Leave areas. Second, we find that public support for Leave closely mapped past support for UKIP. And third, we find that support for Leave was more polarised along education lines than support for UKIP ever was. The implication of this finding is that support for euroscepticism has both widened and narrowed—it is now more widespread across Britain but it is also more socially distinctive.     

Book Reviews

Book reviews in this article:
Politics, Economics and Welfare Reform . By LESLIE LENKOWSKY
Le Moloch en Europe: Etatisation et Corporatisation . By MATTEI DOG AN and DOMINIQUE PELASSY
Leadership and Innovation, A Biographical Perspective on Entrepreneurs in Government . By JAMESON W. DOIG and ERWIN C. HARGROVE, eds.
The Politics of Numbers . Edited by WILLIAM ALONSO and PAUL STARR
Breaking the Impasse. Consensual Approaches to Resolving Public Disputes . By LAWRENCE SUSSKIND and JEFFREY CRUIKSHANK
The Politics of Federal Reorganization: Creating the U.S. Department of Education . By BERYL A. RADIN and WILLIS D. HAWLEY
The Thirteenth Man: A Reagan Cabinet Memoir . TERREL H. BELL     

中国主要城市群的人口模式分类研究

城市群是区域经济和人口的主要空间载体,深入研究其人口集聚、发展状况,有利于促进城市群形成合理的区域发展格局。从构成城市群的主要人口要素出发,选取反映城市群人口特征的若干主要指标,运用聚类分析方法,对我国主要城市群人口特征进行空间分类研究,发现中国19个主要城市群按照其主要人口特征可明显分为五个人口类别,各类别之间存在显著差异:第一类城市群包括珠三角、长三角和京津冀3个城市群,特征是人口规模大、密度高、城市化水平高;第二类城市群包括成渝、长江中游、海峡西岸、山东半岛、北部湾、关中平原6个城市群,特征是人口增长率高、人口空间分布比较合理;第三类城市群包括中原、哈长、山西中部、滇中、辽中南5个城市群,特征是人口增长率低、城市化水平不高;第四类城市群包括兰西、黔中2个城市群,其特征是人口规模小、城市化水平低;第五类城市群包括天山北坡、呼包鄂榆、宁夏沿黄3个城市群,其特征是人口规模小、密度低、空间分布欠合理。在促进城市群发展的政策方面应进行差异化人口政策引导,在优化人口发展的侧重点和具体策略方面应有针对性区别施策。     

Voter Choice in the 1995 French Presidential Election

This study estimates a model of voter choice for the first and second ballots of the 1995 French Presidential election. Its objective is to characterize the relative importance of traditional bases of French voter choice such as social class relative to campaign issues and voter evaluations of the economy. The study also seeks to identify candidate-specific bases of voter choice. Multinomial logit analysis of voter choice among the four leading candidates reveals a stronger role for campaign issues than previous studies suggest. Voter-candidate ideological proximity is the strongest predictor of first and second ballot choice, followed by voter perceptions of candidate ability to address unemployment and political corruption. Demographic variables have limited explanatory power in both the first and second ballot models. The parameter estimates demonstrate considerable differences in the bases of voter choice across candidates, with the bases of voter choice for National Front leader Jean-Marie le Pen most distinct from those of the remaining candidates.     

The Blair Governments, Public Sector Reform and State Strategic Capacity

Two books at the end of the Blair era—by Michael Barber and Julian Le Grand—offer to redeem the ‘third way’. Both authors explore the political case for public sector reform and the means by which it can be accomplished. They explore a similar range of reform models: command and control; quasi‐markets; and devolution and transparency. But the circle between efficiency, client service and continuous improvement must be squared. Neither author considers the ‘learning by doing’ alternative. No less fundamentally, neither author addresses the political and technical challenges in developing strategy. How are issues to be aired in advance so as to expose evidence and perspectives? How are interests to be engaged and supporting coalitions formed? How are these processes to occur without executive commitment? How are unconventional ideas to be aired without being over‐ruled by populist or media sensationalism? These are the practical dilemmas that confounded Blair's efforts. These books invite a strategic conversation that is badly needed. But where in the political system can it be pursued?     

Are We Civilized Yet?

The term “civilization” has been used in many contexts where accusations of Western imperialism, racism, and the like do not at all apply. Works on the history of science and technology in ancient cultures provide one such example, when they speak of Egyptian civilization or early Chinese civilization. It is also not true that works of the Enlightenment view the non-western world as less civilized and inferior. An entire genre of writing inspired by Jesuit accounts discovered in China a higher form of society that Europe should emulate. Two such works were Oliver Goldsmith’s Letters from a Citizen of the World and François Quesnay’s Le Despostisme de la chine, which offer, respectively, an extended satire and a sharp critique of European society.