1976年以来东帝汶的非常规死亡人口与难民

1975年东帝汶发生内战,随后印尼入侵并在当地展开高压统治20余年。根据拙文中的人口变化曲线图,印尼占领期间东帝汶出现了大批非常规的“失踪人口”,主要分为死亡人口和难民两部分。印尼官方并没有对此进行过系统的调查,其公布的当地人口总数也笼统地把1980年后迁移至东帝汶的印尼人包含在内,妨碍了国际社会调查与还原东帝汶在印尼统治期间出现大批非常规死亡人口的历史。     

新生的国家发展的处女地--初进东帝汶

应CV.S公司的邀请,我于2001年底来到了位于南太平洋上的岛国--东帝汶进行业务考察. 早就听说过有关东帝汶的一些情况,先是在某杂志上看到的,后来在互联网上也见有记载:热带丛林,毒蝎肆虐,蚊蝇乱飞,疟疾,登革热,没有旅馆和饭店,一人一天只有一瓶矿泉水,战乱中死了几十万人……面对险恶的环境,到这种地方确要鼓点勇气.于是我买了预防疟疾的药片,带着防蚊油、蚊帐、长衣长裤踏上了征程.     

冷战后澳大利亚对东帝汶政策的评析

在东南亚地区,随着束埔寨问题的解决,东帝汶问题就成为该地区最主要的安全问题之一。东帝汶问题自1974年印尼入侵东帝汶以来一直是地区热点之一。在东帝汶走向独立的过程中,外部大国特别是澳大利亚发挥了特殊的作用。本文试图通过对东帝汶独立过程中澳大利亚外交政策的演变来探究澳大利亚作为中等强国的外交逻辑。     

中国与东帝汶关系的历史、现状及前景

东帝汶民主共和国(DemocraticRepublicofEastTimor)地处东南亚的边缘 ,位于太平洋与印度洋之间的努沙登加拉群岛最东端 ,西与印度尼西亚接壤 ,南和澳大利亚隔海相望 ,面积1.48万平方公里 ,首都帝力。东帝汶是世界上最年轻的国家 ,它原是葡萄牙殖民地 ,后被印度尼亚西所占领 ,最终在国际社会的帮助下 ,于2002年5月20日正式宣布独立。东帝汶是一个与我国相距万里之遥的小国 ,但在我国对外关系中亦占有不可忽视的地位。本文主要就中国与东帝汶关系的历史、现状与前景作一些介绍与分析。一中国与东帝汶两国人民之间的交往具有悠久的历史 ,南宋…     

Regime Change and Foreign Policy: Portugal,Indonesia and the Self-determination of East Timor

This article argues that the nature of interim governments is not a satisfactory explanation of foreign policy initiatives, or their absence, during particular types of transition to democracy. The proposal is rejected for two main reasons. On the one hand, both the Portuguese (1974-76) and Indonesian (1998-99) transitions to democracy provide evidence that contradicts the proposal. On the other hand, the proposition does not explain which foreign policy decisions are taken and the reasons why. This article argues that we should focus instead on the new individual and corporate evaluations and strategies that come about inside a country as a result of new elite alignments, following the installation of a democratic regime, which opens a window of opportunity for making foreign policy changes. Moreover, the perceptions of the international community also influence the decision-making of individual and corporate interests and their strategies. Where the preceding authoritarian regime pursued foreign policies that the international community regarded as illegitimate, then there will be incentives to change policy. This approach sheds more light on the case studies involving Portugal, Indonesia and East Timor, by identifying correctly the foreign policy initiatives that were taken during the regime transitions to democracy and by explaining the underlying reasons.     

Peace-building and the predatory political economy of insecurity: evidence from Cambodia,East Timor and Afghanistan

International peace-building interventions in post-conflict countries are intended to transform the socio-political context that led to violence and thereby build a stable and lasting peace. Yet the UN's transitional governance approach to peace-building is ill-suited to the challenge of dealing with the predatory political economy of insecurity that often emerges in post-conflict societies. Evidence from peace-building attempts in Cambodia, East Timor and Afghanistan illustrates that the political economy incentives facing domestic elites in an environment of low credibility and weak institutionalisation lead to a cycle of patronage generation and distribution that undermine legitimate and effective governance. As a result, post-conflict countries are left vulnerable to renewed conflict and persistent insecurity. International interventions can only craft lasting peace by understanding the political economy of conflict persistence and the potential policy levers for altering, rather than perpetuating, those dynamics.     

月德禄主教与帝汶天主教的复兴（1874-1910）

在东南亚研究中,帝汶是学者们最少关注的地方。帝汶和澳门同属葡萄牙东方属地,两地有着密切的关系。当时两地属于同一个主教辖区,1874年之后,根据果阿方面的命令,帝汶划归澳门教区管辖,关系进一步密切。在帝汶天主     

平等相待真诚友好——中国与东帝汶建立外交关系10周年回顾与展望

2012年是东帝汶独立10周年,也是中国与东帝汶建立外交关系10周年.建交以来,两国本着真诚友好、平等相待、相互支持、共同发展的原则,双边关系稳步发展.     

Justice in democratic transitions

Transitional Justice: How Emerging Democracies Reckon with Former Regimes, Vol.1 General Considerations edited by Neil J. Kritz. Estover, Plymouth: Plymbridge Distributors Ltd. Pp.xxx + 604. £36.95. ISBN 1 878 37945 3

Transitional Justice: How Emerging Democracies Reckon with Former Regimes, Vol.2 Country Studies edited by Neil J. Kritz. Estover, Plymouth: Plymbridge Distributors Ltd. Pp.xl + 780. £31. ISBN 1 878 37943 7

Transitional Justice: How Emerging Democracies Reckon with Former Regimes, Vol.3 Laws, Rulings and Reports edited by Neil J. Kritz. Estover, Plymouth: Plymbridge Distributors Ltd. Pp.xxxii + 834. £36.95. ISBN 1 878 37944 5     

Coordinating Transitional Justice

Conflict resolution professionals sometimes differ from human rights professionals about the best approaches to transitional justice, particularly with regard to the scope, conditions, and timing of possible amnesties from prosecution for perpetrators of war crimes and human rights abuses. When human rights and conflict resolution professionals work at cross‐purposes, they may work less effectively to end conflict, abuses, and crimes, and to implement peace accords. A consensus among conflict resolution and human rights scholars about which legal norms should govern post‐conflict amnesty programs appears to be developing. Against this emerging legal framework, human rights and conflict resolution professionals should, I argue, develop processes for working together more effectively in the design and implementation of context‐sensitive approaches to transitional justice. These process principles should address the entire conflict period, from escalation through resolution to post‐conflict reconstruction. In this article, I describe a tentative, general framework for coordinating the development of transitional justice programs. This proposed framework is intended to stimulate and guide discussion of these issues among conflict resolution and human rights professionals and scholars.     

新加坡少年司法制度刍议

经过60多年的发展,新加坡已建立起以儿童福利为导向的少年司法制度。在借鉴普通法系国家少年司法立法与实践的基础上,新加坡少年司法逐步形成了具有本土特色的体系与结构,并在未成年人保护与未成年人犯罪矫正上发挥着愈来愈重要的作用。其某些做法可为我国时下的少年司法改革提供一些难得的域外借鉴素材。     

Comparative transformation. Experiences in East Europe and prospects in East Asia

This article1. retraces the origins of the revolutions in East Europe, set against the more retarding socio-political causalities in East Asia,2. benchmarks the sequence of economic transformation in East Europe against the limited and incomplete economic reforms in East Asia,3. sets postcommunist political developments in East Europe against scenarios for political change in East Asia, and4. compares the social crisis in East Europe with prospects for more stable social development in the Confucian cultures of East Asia.The article concludes with the need for negotiated democratic regime change in the remaining Communist dictatorships in East Asia.. While economic structures still require a sustained effort for systemic change towards genuine market economies, its social consequences are expected to be less dramatic than in Eastern Europe.     

对东亚新形势的若干看法

本文就如何认识东亚新形势谈若干看法.东亚是亚洲和世界的重要组成部分,幅员辽阔、资源丰富、历史悠久、文化灿烂,人民勤劳智慧.除个别国家外,几乎所有东亚国家都属发展中国家.我们历史遭遇相同,所处发展阶段相同,面临的发展任务一样,对发展中国家群体前途与命运的认识相似.     

Vice President Liu Hongcai Visits Timor Leste,Indonesia and the Republic of Korea

正As early as in the Han Dynasty,Chinese people started to travel all the way to Southeast Asia.Chinese merchants used to sail southwards in winter following the northwest monsoon,going all the way to today’s Indonesian archipelago and make homebound trips the next year following the southeast monsoon.At the beginning of the 15th century,these voyages reached a crescendo,with