独立模式对建国初期政治发展的影响:印度尼西亚与马来西亚的比较

战后印度尼西亚、马来西亚两国的民族解放运动通过不同的模式先后摆脱了殖民统治 ,取得民族独立 ,开始走上了探索政治、经济现代化的道路。由于两国独立经历的差异 ,建国初期即第一代国家领导人执政时期 ,两国的政治发展也呈现了各具特色的态势 ,这在领导人的政治意识形态 ,军队在政治中的作用 ,公职人员状况三个方面表现得尤为突出。     

印尼人姓名中的文化差异与融合

印尼人姓名的复杂形态反映出印尼文化的多元性,它可以成为观察印尼多元文化的一面镜子,使我们更好地了解印尼民族。透过印尼人的姓名,不但可以看到印尼传统文化、巴厘―印度教文化和阿拉伯―伊斯兰文化之间的明显差异,而且能体会外来文化与本土文化、本土文化与本土文化之间的融合,并看出印尼人具有名随人变、崇尚名誉、讲究实用的姓名特点。     

印尼银行业改革、重组的最新进展与变化趋势分析

印尼银行业经过10年的整顿与重组,在信用、存贷率、利润、资本充足比例等方面均大有改观,现又重现生机和活力.印尼银行业未来改革措施与发展趋势将以提高最低资本准备金,协助金融机构处理呆、坏账,以及实施新的银行存款保险制度为核心,进一步增强银行竞争力,维护金融秩序稳定.     

Politics of justice and reconciliation in post-Suharto Indonesia

This article examines the politics of justice and reconciliation in post-Suharto Indonesia with particular focus on the unprecedented pressures on the government to deal with past human rights abuses. Present Indonesian experience illustrates the complexity of dealing with past abuses and needs to be examined in the context of the constraints and possibilities negotiated by new democracies when dealing with past abuses. In a comparative sense the Indonesian case is not new in the sense that other new democracies have also faced this kind of situation. The case study of the Tanjung Priok killings in 1984 that will be presented here demonstrates the need to develop a strategy which combines the elements of prosecution and reconciliation in post-Suharto Indonesia.     

The Limits of Civil Society in Democratic Indonesia: Media Freedom and Religious Intolerance

Abstract

Indonesian democracy has been challenged by rising religious intolerance and discriminatory attitudes in civil society since the mid-2000s, despite expanded freedom in many areas including the media. Why has Indonesian civil society been put on the defensive by radical and conservative Islamic elements in the context of democratic consolidation? What role has expanded freedoms and a flourishing of new media and information technologies played? This article argues that two factors have contributed to the rising influence of religious hardliners/radicals and increasing religious intolerance. The first is hardliner access not only to new media but, more importantly, to traditional means and institutions for religious and political mobilisation, including state apparatus, to cultivate antagonistic sentiments and attitudes against what they consider the enemies of Islam within the Muslim communities while disseminating narrow and dogmatic interpretations of Islam. The other is the rise of conservative Muslim politicians within the state who are ready and eager to embrace new media and communication technologies while using the state office and prerogatives to advance conservative religious visions and agendas. In order to assess how those conservative politicians exploit their ministerial prerogatives and state patronage to curtail civil society, particularly the freedom of expression and religion, this article examines two prominent and controversial Muslim politicians: Tifatul Sembiring from the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party and Suryadharma Ali from the United Development Party.     

第二波改革的起跑线——印尼苏西洛总统2010年国情咨文评析

印尼总统苏西洛2010年年度国情咨文颇具新意.咨文不仅回顾和总结了过去一年印尼发展中的得失,还梳理了印尼进入民主转型时期以来的成就和问题,明确提出印尼已进入第二波改革的新阶段.咨文强调为确保第二波改革的成功,印尼应加速发展,建立起富强、民主、公正三大支柱.咨文还提出印尼要实行"全方位外交",拓展更加广阔的外交空间.     

马来西亚政局突变的混沌学解读

2008年的马来西亚大选,出现了所有政评家都意想不到的结果,即执政的国阵失去数十年以来一直保有的多数国会议席和五个州政权.本文运用混沌理论对此"不规则"现象进行解读,先后分析选前形势,印度人示威及其对其他族群选民的影响,网络传播与政治动员的关系等.本文认为,政治领域和其他领域一样,也存在"混沌"或"不规则", "网络政治"特点,使当代政治的"不规则"日渐增多,传统定常的政治分析方法面临着新的挑战.     

International Organisations and the Evolution of Humanitarianism: Cross-perspectives on the Commonwealth and the European Union

Abstract

As international relations actors in the post-Second World War world, international organisations have played a significant role in the standardisation of global policy concepts during the 20th century, and humanitarian assistance has been no exception. While the study of the role of international organisations in shaping a dominant model of humanitarian aid has recently gathered pace, few historians have focused on different, less successful models and interpretations developed by other international organisations. Recently declassified Commonwealth Secretariat records show that discussions within the Secretariat and among member states regarding the potential objectives and scope of Commonwealth humanitarian assistance programmes took place as early as the 1960s, and continued throughout the following decades. This article provides an overview of the origin and evolution of the Commonwealth’s approach to humanitarian assistance since the 1960s. Its objective is to document this hitherto little known aspect of Commonwealth assistance policies, and, based on an initial literature and archival survey, to contribute to the identification of further research questions and gaps in this aspect of Commonwealth history. Although they are very different in nature and scope, the Commonwealth and the European Union share at least one common feature in so far as humanitarian assistance is concerned, namely their difficulty in reaching a consensual definition of it. By exploring the links and discrepancies between, as well as within, each organisation’s approach to humanitarian assistance, and by examining the initiatives of some of their member states, this paper seeks to highlight the plasticity of the definition of humanitarian assistance.     

新马岛屿争端之判决:依据与启示

2008年5月23日,国际法院对新马岛屿之争做出判决,将白礁岛判给了新加坡.国际法院的判词表明:有力的证据,即官方在争端事项上代表政府权力行使的言词及行为是新加坡赢得白礁岛主权的关键.因此,进行相关研究,为通过法律途径解决中国与他国之间的领土争端解决提供充分的理论和事实依据,具有重要的意义.国际法院对一些证据效力的判定也启示我们:在涉及领土争端的问题时,国家间关系的利益权衡固然重要,但在权衡时,也要尽可能地考虑这种权衡将来在法庭上可能产生的证据因素和影响.     

国际冲突调停的理论与方法争鸣——评《调停国际危机》、《国际冲突调停》与《国际调停互动》

调停作为一种第三方干预冲突方式,近年来在国际冲突管理和解决中发挥着越来越重要的作用。传统的调停研究路径主要关注国家行为体的调停活动。然而,随着冷战的结束以及非国家行为体如联合国等在国际冲突调停中的作用的不断加强,传统的国家中心主义路径在调停研究中受到了极大的挑战,并开始逐渐失去其主导地位。在这些新的路径引导下,产生了一大批新的经验研究成果。本文结合三部代表国际冲突调停研究新方法的最新著作,围绕调停的发生、过程和效果三个层面,比较系统地梳理了当前学界关于国际调停的最新研究成果,展示了他们在理论与方法上的争鸣。最后,本文评估了这些研究的主要贡献和不足之处,并指出了有待继续拓展的一些议题。     

The Monetisation of Consent and its Limits: Explaining Political Dominance and Decline in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Malaysia’s 14th General Election in 2018 toppled the Barisan Nasional government after six decades in power. Barisan Nasional’s longevity was due to its performance legitimacy and a capacity to manipulate electoral mechanisms. However, it was the use of money in eliciting consent that led to a political change. This article traces how sustaining the dominance of the Barisan Nasional under Najib Razak used a strategy which we term the monetisation of consent. However, when monetising consent loses its efficacy, political dominance is challenged. We discuss why and how manufacturing consent through the use of money has its limits when regime legitimacy is challenged. Intense political competition on the electoral terrain from 2008 and the multiplication of Malay-Muslim political parties induced Najib’s greater personal grip on state funds to gain political support. This resulted in the Najib regime’s kleptocratic turn. Beyond the disbursement of largesse to political power brokers and business elites, his government monetised consent as a populist strategy. The reduced efficacy of electoral manipulation made the monetisation of consent imperative for regime survival but the use of money and unpopular fiscal policies, which deprived citizens of disposable income, led to a legitimacy crisis and the Barisan Nasional’s defeat.     

Fiscal Federalism and International Capital: The Effects of Fiscal Federalism on Foreign Direct Investment and Sovereign Dept Ratings

Although the study of federalism has become one of the most intensely studied areas in economics and political science, no consensus has emerged on the impact of fiscal federalism on macroeconomic performance. I focus on one specific element of the debate‐ the role of fiscally federal institutions in allowing a country access to international capital markets. In an empirical analysis of 60 countries from 1975‐1995 I find fiscal federalism has no clear impact on inflows of foreign direct investment. In an examination of the impact of federalism on sovereign debt ratings for 40 countries from 1980‐1998, I find that fiscal federalism is associated with lower levels of sovereign debt risk.     

中国古代分裂格局中的“统一性规范”——以宋、明两朝历史为例

本研究试图借鉴国际关系研究中对规范结构的关注,从社会学角度和体系层次来理解国家的战略行为。行为体间的规范结构在不同时期各有不同,因此,对战略文化的研究不能代替对"统一性规范"的研究。统一性规范兼具管制性与建构性效用,并使分裂格局中各分立政权进行"正统"身份的建构,使之保持争取国家统一的进攻性行为。基于以上视角,本文选取宋、明两朝的历史来验证统一性规范两种效用的存在。本研究对于解释当代中国的战略逻辑有一定意义,有助于澄清西方学界和政界对当代中国战略行为的误解,有利于我们论证当代中国与周边政权建立和平关系的可能性与必然性。     

从越南第12次南海国际学术研讨会看南海问题与国际传播话语权的炒作

作为海洋战略实施的具体措施之一,十多年来越南外交研究机构持续主持召开关于南海(越南称"东海")的国际学术研讨会,已形成一种较为稳定的机制。第12次南海国际学术研讨会是在越南因应新冠肺炎疫情冲击、世界和南海地区形势发生重大变化的背景下召开的,呈现出了一些不同于以往各届会议的新特点。越南主流媒体对此次会议给予了较多关注和宣传报道,力图表现出研讨会的所谓"公正性""学术性""法理性"特点,反映出的意愿则是服务于攫取和扩展自身海洋权益的目的,并与美国关于南海问题的声明立场相呼应。举办方试图通过国际学术研讨会平台的形式,渲染南海复杂和严峻的形势,推卸在南海制造麻烦和分歧的责任,宣扬其南海政策主张,寻求影响和主导在南海问题上的国际传播话语权。维护南海的和平、合作与发展是南海区域国家和东盟的共同愿景,推动这一愿景的落实是各方的责任,越南需要拿出切实的诚意和实际行动,不能仅仅停留在口头上,其媒体也应该发挥出更多的建设性作用。     

越南未来五年政治经济发展走向预测——基于对越共“十一大”制订的发展目标之分析

2011年年初,越南共产党召开了具有划时代意义的第十一届全国代表大会,大会通过了《2011—2015五年的方向和任务》、《2011—2020年经济社会发展战略》等文件,制订了未来五年具体的经济奋斗目标。本文以本次会议为契机,以会议所通过的一系列决议为基础,以现行经济政策为参照系,全面分析在未来五年中越南政治经济改革走向以及将因此而面临的种种机遇与挑战。     

体系与依附：独立运动时期李承晚的依附外交研究

19世纪末20世纪初朝鲜时值东方朝贡体系与西方殖民体系冲突的风口浪尖,日本在多次挑战朝贡体系中心（唐、明）失败之后,于清末时期借助殖民体系的理念再次向朝贡体系发起进攻,最终打败清政府将朝鲜变成它的殖民地,此后日本不仅彻底摧毁了朝贡体系,还试图在东亚建立以它为轴心的殖民体系。在此背景下,李承晚及其领导的政府组织依赖美国,希望通过亲美外交来争取美国承认大韩民国临时政府以对抗日本和给予半岛独立。李承晚寄生于他国且通过外交而非武装斗争来呼求他国赐予国家独立的外交模式和独立思想属于依附外交与外交独立论的范畴。所谓依附外交即弱小国家在使用通信、说服、交涉、谈判甚至战争等多种方式对外行使主权来处理国家关系和参与国际事务时,无法依靠自身的力量或意志自主地维护国家利益及实施对外政策,而不得不靠依附于他国和部分地让渡国家利益来处理国家关系的一种外交模式。由于这一外交主体的非独立性或寄生性,其外交政策及其体现出的外交思想染有鲜明的依附性色彩,因此,本文将之界定为依附外交,该概念的理论基础来自依附论中对依附的界定。而李承晚的依附外交主要体现出依附与独立的关系,是一种政治依附,后果则是韩国通过依附式独立方式走向独立式依附。     

The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Ideological Space in Portugal and Greece: A Comparison of Elites and Voters

This work addresses the dimensions and content of ideological space in Portugal and Greece after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis and the imposition of austerity policies in the two countries. By examining both elite interviews and public opinion data, the article principally attempts to determine whether the economic crisis has created a new division in ideological space by cross-cutting or completely replacing older ones. In addition, we attempt to gauge the position of crisis-related issues relative to issue divides on European integration and globalisation which, up to now, have been dormant in Southern European countries.     

海外华人与侨乡关系研究的路径探索——评《多重网络的渗透与扩张——海外华侨华人与闽粤侨乡互动关系研究》

侨乡研究长期以来一直是中国华侨华人研究的重要内容,但经过20多年的发展,其研究的瓶颈开始显现,主要表现为缺少理论体系的支撑.郑一省教授的<多重网络的渗透与扩张--海外华侨华人与闽粤侨乡互动关系研究>一书力图从侨乡研究最薄弱的理论环节入手,在"网络学"等相关理论的基础上,提出"多重网络"概念和理论,对海外华人与侨乡关系研究进行了理论上的新探索,"从理论上弥补了侨乡研究的不足",也对推动华侨华人学科的理论建设起到积极的作用.     

The African Commission on Human and People's Rights and the future African Court of Justice and Human Rights: Comparative lessons from the European Court of Human Rights

This article focuses on two regional human rights systems — the system that exists in Africa and the mechanism that exists within the Council of Europe. It examines the development and specifics of each system to determine what lessons the African Commission and the future African Court of Justice and Human Rights can learn from the European model and its Court of Human Rights. The article also examines what can be learnt from the role of the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the role of the present human rights court: the African Court of Human and Peoples' Rights. It examines the strengths and weaknesses of each system and the challenges that exist for each. The article also examines the experience of the European Commission, which is no longer in existence, in addition to European Court on Human Rights, which has taken over the functions of the Commission, to determine what can be drawn from their experiences. Issues examined include the institutional strengths and weaknesses of these bodies, state compliance with the decisions of the human rights institutions and the resources available to these bodies.     

Disaggregating Corruption: A Comparison of Participation and Perceptions in Latin America with a Focus on Mexico1

An abundant empirical literature on corruption relying on survey research has emerged since the mid‐1990s. The predominant line of inquiry concerns perceptions of corruption with respect to institutions and processes. Another, separate line of inquiry that has enjoyed less attention concerns reports about individuals’ participation in corruption. These two dimensions of corruption, however, are typically conflated, leading to error and confusion. This article explores the relationship between the two and seeks to differentiate the two. Using data at the country and individual levels, analysis shows how the two may be only weakly related to one another – though causality remains unclear – and respond to distinct sets of determinants and generate distinct outcomes. The analysis underlines the need to specify the findings in the literature: that the causes and consequences of corruption relate more to ‘perceived’ corruption rather than actual corruption.