Three Faces of Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Parties and Candidates in Germany, 2005–13

Constituency campaigns are multidimensional and complex: parties and candidates are deeply entangled, and, at least in mixed-member electoral systems, local constituency campaigns are embedded within national party campaigns. Recent discussions have focused on aspects of campaign change in European democracies, especially disentanglement in terms of individualisation, personalisation, and/or localisation. This study contributes to the discussion both conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, three dimensions (‘faces’) of constituency campaigns are differentiated: organisational partyness, vertical integration, and communicative personalisation. This threefold differentiation allows for a more precise analysis of campaign patterns by differentiating party–candidate (organisation, communication) and intra-party (vertical integration) aspects. Constituency campaigns in the 2005, 2009, and 2013 German federal elections are empirically examined. The analysis explains why candidates decide for one or another campaign pattern. These three faces are empirically distinct as well. Furthermore, we argue that parties remain vital for the organisation of campaigns despite a decline in centralisation. Addressing the communicative face, the analysis shows that candidate-related issues are important, but a mix of party- and candidate-related communication gains importance.     

Auditing party democracy: the case of Canadian party constituency associations

Political parties are often assessed on the basis of participatory democratic theory, which emphasises the importance of openness, inclusiveness, and responsiveness as the markers by which we can measure their democratic quality. This approach can be contrasted with competitive democratic theory that emphasises the centrality of fairness, transparency, and accountability to the democratic assessment of parties and other democratic actors. We apply these contrasting frameworks to a democratic audit of one set of party institutions and actors: the grassroots constituency associations maintained by Canadian parties. We illustrate how the outcomes of such assessments are deeply informed by the frameworks employed.     

华人政治地位与马来西亚的政治分层

本文通过分析马来西亚华马两族执政党的不同地位、政府公共职位的族群分配比例以及选区划分的族群利益倾向,探讨马来西亚族群政治分层以及族群在政治领域存在的结构性差异.结果表明,华人明显处于政治弱势,在族群权益博弈中的地位由此大为削弱.     

Islamist Mobilisation in Secularist Strongholds: Institutional Change and Electoral Performance in Turkey

How do Islamist parties mobilise support and win elections in secularist strongholds? What explains the electoral performance of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey’s most consistently secularist region – western Anatolia? This article explores these questions with a comparative case study of two similar cities in the periphery of ?zmir where the AKP registered significantly different electoral results: Ödemi? and Salihli. It shows that deep institutional transformations of the local party organisations, including leadership turnover, reshuffling of the party cadres, and an explicit attempt by local party leaders to moderate and move to the political centre, were necessary factors for the AKP to succeed in elections where the Islamist constituency is weak.     

Electoral Cycles, Party Organization and Mobilization in Canada

Canadian political parties oscillate between periods of inter-election quiescence and electoral year mobilization. In this paper we measure, across a series of elections, organizational activity in inter-election periods as parties develop strategic positions and seek to reshape their bases, and then their subsequent mobilization strategies and successes. Our research strategy employs ecological models rooted in electoral district level data including party resources and activity (from annual financial accounts), census data describing the electoral districts, as well as conventional aggregate electoral data. Our initial models utilise evidence from Ontario, Canada's largest province, and cover several electoral cycles that witnessed a string of governmental turnovers. This analysis provides a more nuanced model of party systems than those based on simple election results. Even in a period of remarkable electoral flux, party activity and success appear to be deeply rooted in the diverse constituency social and political contexts of the system.     

新加坡人民行动党政府的社会控制方式

本文从制度环境、制度安排、政策和策略等方面对新加坡执政的人民行动党及其政府如何处理与其它政党、社群组织和普通选民的关系和社会控制方式进行了分析。指出在制度设计上,它是一个存在一定程度多元制衡的一党独大的以行政为主导的软权威主义的政体。在处理与反对党的关系方面,执政党的基本原则是一方面对其严格限制和控制,采取一切“合法的”手段把其摒弃在国家权力之外,另一方面则保证其在一定程度上的发言权,以对执政党进行一定程度的监督、反映不同的利益和政见。在处理与社群组织和选民的关系方面,其基本原则是通过推行国家合作主义的政策把人民群众纳入执政党所设定的政治发展进程之中;实行一种具有多元利益表达和一定民主性的、提倡体制内合作的自上而下的制度;人民行动党在联系群众方面已经形成了高度制度化的联系机制,尤其是这种机制不是一味迎合人民群众的眼前需要,而是着眼于其长远利益。     

German Voters in Times of Crisis: The Impact of Perceptions and Economic Context on Electoral Behaviour

This paper analyses the connection between economic context, voters’ individual assessment of the economy, and party identification, taking the German national elections of 2009 as an example. Based on the results of multinomial and multilevel regression models, the article shows that partisanship moderates how the economy affects the vote. In cases of increasing unemployment in the constituency, voters are less likely to vote for the Social Democrats instead of the CDU and the opposition. This effect is particularly strong amongst voters who report that they identify with the Social Democrats. Regarding the effect of voters’ assessment of the national economy, the results are different. In this case, a better evaluation of the regional economy increases the probability to vote for right-wing parties – notably amongst voters without partisanship. These findings suggest that the moderating effect of partisanship on the economy’s impact on voting behaviour should not be overestimated. What is more, this analysis implies that research on economic voting should always account for both contextual factors and voters’ personal assessment of the economy, as these measures reveal different dimensions of economic voting.     

Frente Amplio and the Crafting of a Social Democratic Alternative in Uruguay

This study of Uruguay's Frente Amplio explores four central questions for the analysis of the “new Latin American left.” How did a leftist alternative emerge and grow inside an institutionalized party system? How do the socioeconomic and political factors that enabled the rise of the left in Uruguay differ from those observed in other Latin American cases? How did Frente Amplio adapt itself to profit from the opportunities that arose during the 1990s? What are the implications of the previous factors for governmental action by the FA? In answering these questions, this study integrates an analysis of the sociological and political-institutional opportunity structures consolidated during the 1990s with one of strategic partisan adaptation processes. This perspective is useful for explaining how, by 2004, Frente Amplio had built a dual support base from its historical constituency and a socially heterogeneous group alienated from traditional parties due to economic and political discontent.     

Mixed electoral systems in Britain and the Jenkins Commission on electoral reform

Mixed electoral systems seek to combine elements from different voting methods so as to maximise the numbers of individually accountable constituency MPs, while achieving more proportional outcomes in terms of parties' representation. This paper looks in detail at two kinds of mixed systems: variants of the Additional Member System; and AV Plus (or SV Plus). We examine how they would have operated in British conditions during the 1990s—how ballot papers would be structured, how voters respond to them and what electoral outcomes would have resulted. Both approaches offer good prospects for achieving a consensus amongst electoral reformers on an alternative to first-past-the-post elections. We also show how the Jenkins Commission's proposals can be located within the broader development of 'British AMS' by the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. In addition, we quantify the main impacts of the policy choices which the Commission made in designing the proposed system to be submitted to a referendum. The British case will be a key one for the wider debate in political science about the endogenisation of voting system changes within party systems.     

The Presidential and Parliamentary Elections of the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela: Change and Continuity (1998–2000)

The paper examines to what extent electoral behaviour in Venezuela, as it appeared in the elections of 1998 and 2000, is different from that observed between 1958 and 1988. The paper reaches the conclusion that given the decline in party identification (dealignment), the short-term variables specific to each election, in particular the attitude towards government performance and personalities, have grown in weight vis-à-vis the structural factors (party identification, institutions, long-standing political predispositions). However, the latter were still relevant and important in the 1998 and 2000 elections and it is very likely they will carry on as such for the future. It is also concluded that, even though the party system has become unstable due to the decline in identification with the traditional government parties, new stabilising factors seem to have appeared and should be taken into account. These are ideology and negative party identification.     

An Italian Leitmotiv? Corruption and Competence in the Debates of the Italian Chamber of Deputies (1946–2014)

By making use of an original data-set built based on a codification of all investiture debates of the Italian governments from 1946 to 2014, the paper investigates the main factors that explain the choice of a party to devote its attention to the valence issues of corruption and competence in its legislative speeches. Two classes of hypotheses are tested; the first concentrates on spatial reasons, and the second concentrates on contextual factors. Both sets of factors appear to play a significant role, although no clear temporal trend emerges in party attention over almost seventy years of Italian parliamentary debates.     

Contesting the Monopoly of Interpretation: The Uneasy Relationship between Ulama and Sunni Parties in Yemen

Most studies on Sunni Islamism either neglect ulama or portray them as basically diverging from the Islamist movement. Unlike their Islamist counterparts who are contenders for political power in incumbent regimes, the ulama are depicted as loyal quietists. As such, this article problematizes this dichotomy. As is shown by the case of Yemen, the ulama form an integral part of the Islamist Islah party, yet since the position of ulama within the party is crucially dependent on their monopoly over interpretation, and as the lay Muslim Brothers have increasingly digressed from the rulings of the ulama, they have sought alliances with their peers outside the party and attempted to undermine the politics of the Brotherhood by means of ulama associations and founding Salafi parties. By focusing on these developments, the article proposes an alternative reading to the allegedly contradictory politics of Islah which might be valid to other Islamist parties too.     

Who Runs at the Top of Party Lists? Determinants of Parties’ List Ranking in the 2013 German Bundestag Election

In mixed-member proportional systems with closed party lists, such as the German Bundestag election, candidates’ electoral fate is widely determined by their placement on party lists. Despite its importance for the final composition of parliaments, candidates’ list placement in such systems is still under-researched. The literature on political careers has revealed a number of prevalent recruitment factors, but how these factors actually affect candidates’ placement on party lists has rarely been tested. This paper puts forward the question of what recruitment factors affected candidates’ chances to be allocated viable list positions in the 2013 German Bundestag election. The findings suggest that in particular candidates’ incumbency status, their number of prior candidacies and district nominations play key roles in shaping candidates’ electoral viability.     

香港立法会选举中的选区划分与席位分配的内在矛盾

有关香港立法会选举的各种讨论,都需要首先解决选区划分和席位分配问题,但是前期的讨论鲜有理论支持。结合数学研究的结论及美国和欧盟的经历可以发现,在解决选区划分和席位分配的矛盾方面已经形成了一套基本原理。香港立法会选举在选区划分和席位分配方面的独特经历在于,本来有利于大选区的席位分配方式,结果反而不利于大选区。其背后的主要矛盾是没有处理好席位分配公式、人口变动趋势、席位上下限和偏差大小之间的关系。     

Do Candidates Seek Personal Votes on the Internet? Constituency Candidates in the 2009 German Federal Elections

The Internet provides new opportunities for political communication. How strategic are constituency candidates in exploiting these new opportunities and what are the contexts driving their choices? This paper envisions the Internet as a means for personal vote-seeking on the campaign trail adopted by those candidates electorally motivated in this regard. It aims to explore this argument in theoretical and empirical ways and in light of survey data resulting from the 2009 German Candidate Study (GCS 2009). These data cover 38 per cent (N = 790) of all constituency candidates running in the 2009 campaign and enclose numerous questions on their campaign activities online.     

Regionalism,personalism, ethnicity,and violence: parties and voter preference in the 2010 parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan

On the basis of interviews, census data, and precinct-level electoral results from the October 2010 parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan, this paper examines the influences on the party vote in Kyrgyzstan. Instead of traditional socioeconomic variables, this study finds that regionalism (North vs. South), ethnicity, personalism, and violence offered the most compelling explanations of party preference in Central Asia's most competitive election. The paper also examines the contextual factors that constructed and filtered voter demand, from Kyrgyzstan's political and economic conjuncture in 2010 to its unusual party system and electoral rules.     

The Australian Greens: Party Organisation and Political Processes

The Greens challenge the Australian two‐party system by promoting an alternative political agenda and by facilitating democratic processes. Their recent successes in federal and state elections suggest that the party itself deserves closer scrutiny. This paper shows how the Greens are organisationally different from other parties currently active in Australian politics due to both their internal processes and their parliamentary practices. Recent theories of parties argue that party organisation has changed significantly for major parties, adopting an electoral‐professional or cartel model that centralises power and decision‐making in party representatives within parliaments. This paper shows how a smaller party uses identity formation processes to establish a distinctive organisational style. We examine the Greens' party organisation by analysing the interdependent relationships between the party membership, the state and national offices, and Green MPs. The paper is based on original research including in‐depth interviews undertaken with state and federal Greens members of parliaments.     

Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.     

Becoming Hebrew. The Creation of a Jewish National Culture in Ottoman Palestine

This paper discusses the factors that resulted in the formation of the short-lived Socialist Republican Party (SRP0 in December 1951, with emphasis on the Sudan government's role in its formation. Rivalry between the Khatmiyya and the Ansar was a strong factor in the formation of the party. The Sudan government hoped that the party would develop into a centre party representing the people of the Sudan and that would enlist the support of the Khatmiyya. The paper argues that this movement was too late as the political map of the Sudan had by then been drawn and there was no chance of success for the SRP in the circumstances. The formation of the SRP indicates a crisis of government; the Sudan government's frustration and despair led to the formation of the party. This is evident in the British documents and the private papers of the civil servants of the Sudan government which, in addition to the papers of the SRP, are the main source of this paper.     

Why the CCM won't lose: the roots of single-party dominance in Tanzania

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the factors contributing to single-party dominance in Tanzania. Despite the fact that Tanzania has had a multi-party democracy since 1995, the party which governed during single-party rule, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has won the vast majority of seats in the National Assembly in the first four multi-party elections. In order to understand the CCM's grip on power, this article analyses the results of a survey conducted amongst subsistence farmers in Tanzania, which provides information on farmers’ livelihood conditions, access to media and political views, and hence provides insight into the preferences underlying voting behaviour. It discusses the dominant reasons for CCM support, as well as the characteristics of farmers who are more likely to support an opposition party. It concludes by discussing possible policy options for enhancing political competition in Tanzania.