The demographic consequences of austerity in Latin America: methodological aspects

This work reviews evidence in the literature of possible demographic effects of the austerity programs imposed on Latin American countries in the 1980s. The work focuses on methodological problems involved in assessing demographic changes and ascertaining that they were indeed attributable to the economic crisis. An introductory section describes the recession of the 1980s in Latin America, the declines in employment and living standards, and the health and social consequences of the deepening poverty. But the author argues that evaluation of health conditions, levels of nutrition, and especially factors such as infant mortality, fertility, marriage patterns, and migration as indicators of the impact of the economic depression is full of pitfalls that are not always obvious. Few Latin American countries have civil registration systems capable of providing accurate and up-to-date mortality and fertility data. Indirect methods currently in use were intended to analyze longterm levels and trends and are of little use for short-term fluctuations. Data on internal migration are scarce even in developed countries. Even when recent data are available it is often difficult or impossible to obtain data for comparison. Infant mortality and malnutrition levels, for example, are serious problems in many parts of Latin America, but series of data capable of demonstrating that they are truly consequences of the economic crisis are lacking. Another challenge is to separate the demographic effects of the debt crisis from longterm structural processes. The possibility of time lags and of different time frames may increase confusion. Almost a year must pass before effects on birth rates can be expected, for example. Neutralizing mechanisms may obscure the effects sought. Thus, the most impoverished urban sectors may return to the countryside to seek refuge in subsistence agriculture; their departure would in some measure diminish the consequences of recession in the urban economy. The type of cross-sectional analysis of differential fertility and mortality that is currently stressed in demographic studies is of limited utility for understanding the demographic impact of economic oscillations, for which a longitudinal approach is required. The next section of the article compares evidence of the effects of the recession of the 1980s with the Great Depression of the 1930s and with historical crises, suggesting that contemporary economic recessions have little in common in terms of causes or demographic consequences with historic crises. Specific studies and available data are then examined in the areas of fertility and mortality, longterm consequences of the economic recession, and migration.     

Interest groups and lobbying in Latin America: theoretical and practical considerations

The major purpose of this Special Issue is to provide the first comprehensive treatment of interest groups in Latin America. This first article provides background to this end by defining key terms and concepts; explaining the ubiquity of power groups, interests and interest groups in politics and government, and the fundamental elements of an interest group system, relating all this to past characteristics of Latin America's politics. Additionally, the article identifies the reasons for the dearth of studies of interest groups in the region and makes the case for the value of such studies. Drawing on this background, the article also sets out a heuristic for approaching the contributions to this volume and for developing a theoretical framework for the analysis of Latin American interest group systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Policymaking and policy analysis in Latin America—A return journey

This paper reviews and updates the conceptual approaches of the author's Journeys Towards Progress (1963). It focuses first on distinctions explaining differences in the path of policymaking and in its effectiveness. Distinctions are made between pressing and autonomously chosen policy problems, between privileged problems and neglected ones that must manage to “ride the coattails” of the former to receive attention, and between policy tasks that are tackled with more motivation than understanding and those with the opposite characteristic. Addressing then similarities in experience with policymaking, the paper first comments on fracasomania (the failure complex) and on the incapacity ever to be surprised at both consequences and determinants of under-development. Indirect and unanticipated effects of policies are illustrated through a Colombian example. A Concluding Lament suggests that the watch for side-effects must be unusually wide-angled in today's Latin America.     

Debt,democratization, and development in Latin America: How policy can affect global warming

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis conjectures a nonlinear relationship between pollution and economic growth, such that pollution per capita initially increases as countries economically develop, but then reaches a maximum point before ultimately declining. Much of the EKC literature has focused on testing this basic hypothesis and, in studies that find evidence of an EKC, estimating the “turning point” level of development at which the per capita pollution‐growth relationship changes sign. This approach has not emphasized the policy relevance of specification issues or the potential role of policy variables. This research explores a modified EKC specification which conditions the pollution‐growth relationship on a country's level of debt and degree of democratization. These variables turn out to be significant, implying that different political and economic contexts can shift EKCs and their turning points. These findings suggest that policies to relieve debt burdens and institute political reform, in addition to their usual justifications, also could be used as a strategy to reduce carbon emissions from developing countries. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Economic Voting in Latin America: Rules and Responsibility

The impact of institutions on the economic vote stands as a well‐established proposition for the advanced democracies of Europe. We know less, however, regarding the institutional effects on the economic vote in the developing democracies of Latin America. Carrying out an analysis of presidential elections in 18 Latin American countries, we offer evidence that the usual Eurocentric conceptualization of the clarity of responsibility is not ideal for understanding the economic vote in this region. There does exist a powerful effect of institutions on the economic vote within Latin American democracies, but one uniquely associated with its presidential regimes and dynamic party systems. Rules for these elections—such as concurrence, term limits, and second‐round voting—suggest that we should reconceptualize the notion of the clarity of responsibility in Latin America, focusing more on individuals in power and their constraints, and less on the political parties from which they hail.     

Economic Development and Democracy: the View from Latin America

This article provides a robust empirical test of the economic development thesis using time-series data on seventeen Latin American countries ( n =408). It specifies similar models (both linear and non-linear) to those found in the global comparative literature on economic development and democracy in an effort to replicate their findings at the regional level. The statistical analysis shows that the positive relationship between economic development and democracy is not upheld at this level, even when using alternative measures of both and controlling for sub-regional variation. Overall, the analysis provides a regional 'most likely' study that infirms the main claims of modernization theory.     

Central bank independence in Latin America: Politicization and de-delegation

In the last three decades, legal delegation of monetary policy to independent central banks (CBI) has achieved the status of a global norm of good governance. The recent backlash against this independence is an important but understudied trend. Our article analyzes the potential for delegation reversals with a focus on Latin America where CBI was effective in maintaining price stability, but placed important policy constraints on governments. We theorize that, in the shadow of the global norm for CBI, the increasing distance in preferences between the government and the central bank, and the procedural hurdles to change the status quo, explain the intensity of challenges to the delegation contract or the delegated agent. An analysis of the frequency of irregular central bank leadership replacements, and instances of politicization and de-delegation show the plausibility of our argument. We also show that, in Latin America, reforms de-delegating monetary policy have been small, balancing the needs that justified delegation in the first place, but rolling back the most stringent constraints placed on financing the government.     

Stability and change in party preferences: Evidence from Latin America

Why do voters shift partisan allegiances between elections and/or within electoral cycles? Drawing on panel survey data, this study is designed to enhance our understanding of shifting partisan preferences byexploring vote switching and split-ticket voting inthe Latin American context. Its main finding and contribution to the existing literature on stability and change in partisan preferences centers around the importance of candidate viability relative to party identification and other individual characteristics shaping vote choice.     

Introduction: The Meaning and Employment of 'Civil Society' in Latin America

This article discusses the recent adoption of the concept of civil society by Latin American social movements and political theorists. Our argument is that civil society has been employed in two contexts in Latin America: 1) in the re-interpretation of the ambiguous reception of liberalism in the region; 2) in the analysis of the constitution of a realm of societal autonomy throughout the struggle against authoritarianism. It is our contention in this article that social movements and civil associations are playing a central role in both processes.     

Decentralisation and forest management in Latin America: towards a working model

The particular characteristics of natural resources make the decentralisation of their management to elected local governments even more complex than the decentralisation of services and infrastructure. Nevertheless, natural resources are equally important to rural development concerns in the Third World. Numerous countries have begun to implement policies for some form of decentralisation involving natural resources and the environment, and many local governments are already making decisions that affect the future of local resources. This article reviews experiences with decentralisation of forest management in Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Based on those experiences, it proposes a working model for more effective decentralisation strategies. The model addresses the legal structure for decentralised forest management and relevant variables that define the local decision‐making sphere, as well as key mediating factors that also affect outcomes. Most of these variables, even in the local sphere, offer important sites for policy and aid intervention. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Corruption and citizen participation in local government: Evidence from Latin America

Prior research indicates that corruption hampers economic growth and imposes high social costs. From the perspective of democratic theory, corruption does not just violate the fiduciary obligations with which the public entrusts government officials; it has detrimental effects on the legitimacy of the democratic process as a whole. If citizens view their government as corrupt and dishonest, they become cynical about political life, and as a result, they are less likely to participate in democratic governance. This article examines the effect of corruption—measured through both perception and experience—on citizen participation in local government. Using data from the AmericasBarometer survey on the new democracies in Latin America, we test whether the withdrawal effects registered in terms of participation in elections hold for the participation in city administration. The results show that citizens' willingness to participate in local governance relates positively with their experience of corruption, but not with their perception of corruption.     

Emerging,and old,dilemmas for food security in Latin America

The present text offers a summary of some of the crucial food security problems in Latin American (LA) countries. This region, like many others in the globe, confronts such as food safety difficulties. The summary offers also an analysis of some technologically based solutions for LA food security issues. As a general call, the present review article calls for a collaborative and transdisciplinary approach to think deeper about how to solve food security problems, putting the focus on enabling technologies within a context of social, market, and global trends to achieve food and nutritional security. The review is positioned far from techno‐optimisms and, at the same time, away from purely economic‐based solutions. Conversely, this review embraces the whole complexity that brings economy‐nature‐technology triad. Embracing such complex relationships between technology, nature and the socio‐economy aspects of food security LA issues. Such complexity also triggers a need for a solution that considers a renewed approach to sustainability in the whole food value chain from production to consumption. Sustainability in the value chain opens up a much‐needed approach to LA food security that broadens, and refresh, our understanding of this fundamental socio‐economic and technical phenomena.     

On tolerating policy and organizational termination: Some design considerations

This essay explores some factors that have led us to expect perpetuity rather than termination as normal in dealing with policies and organizations. After suggesting that this is a dangerous assumption where change and uncertainty are sufficient to require substantial adaptive capacity, it is proposed that a model tolerant of acting to make termination either more or less likely is preferred. Given that we already know how to invest to make termination less likely, the next two sections explore some strategies that may allow termination to be more easily tolerated, and the learning incident to its existence increased. The first explores the use of matrix models of organization to institutionalize the capacity for initiating and terminating temporary projects within organizations. The second section suggests several external mechanisms (savings banks, insurance policies, receivership referees, trust officers, salvage specialists, and marriage/divorce/ escrow brokerages) that could operate to make termination of policies and organizations less difficult.I wish to express my appreciation especially to Arnold Meltsner, a colleague in no way responsible for either the obvious or subtle flaws of this essay. Several years ago we undertook an empirical investigation of several score terminated organizations, and I know my thinking has greatly benefited from his effort in setting both me and the subject straight. His comments on this essay have been very helpful. Eugene Bardach and Aaron Wildavsky also provided helpful comments in the drafting of this paper.     

Cosmopolitan Aspirations: New Media,Citizenship Education and Youth in Latin America

A wide variety of supranational organizations and networks are currently promoting educational initiatives aimed at disseminating particular values and notions of citizenship in Latin America via new media and in particular the Internet. These organizations exercise a growing influence on educational objectives and techniques in the region. Despite the fact that access is still modest among many sectors in Latin America, the hope is that these new media will contribute to the eradication among young people of undesirable behaviour such as delinquency and political apathy, and instead foster a stronger sense of civic responsibility. That sense might underpin a more constructive, entrepreneurial global youth culture espousing universal, multicultural values rather than particularistic, parochial ones. The Internet is presented in such initiatives as possessing intrinsically educational, entrepreneurial and democratizing properties. The article explores the activities of supranational organizations and networks operating in Latin America, and seeks to provide a glimpse of the idealised youth identities that they envision. It is argued that the new roles assigned to education are shaped by new media optimism, cosmopolitan aspirations and a post-national rather than nationally anchored conception of citizenship. Theories of governance and governability are used to understand how these developments can be seen in terms of the globalization of politics and the ensuing changes in the forms, rationalities and techniques of governance in a wide range of issue areas, including education.