The effect of offender characteristics on offense specialization and escalation

The primary goal of this research is to investigate whether adolescent correlates of criminal behavior also serve as correlates of specialization and escalation in the criminal career. Prior research on offense sequences has focused on (1) establishing the existence of specialization and escalation and on (2) testing whether observed patterns of offense sequences differ across age and race of offender. We use data on 2,294 offenders from the Predicting Parole Performance in the Era of Crack Cocaine study (Haapanen & Skonovd, 1999). A series of multinomial logit models test for significant behavioral, social, and psychological correlates of the likelihood of offender specialization and escalation. The results show that without taking into account offender characteristics, there is evidence of specialization and escalation comparable to that found in prior research. Once offender background characteristics are controlled statistically, overall evidence of specialization and escalation is significantly reduced, indicating that (1) background characteristics are important predictors of types of offending and (2) background characteristics help to explain patterns of offending across the criminal career.     

Patterns in burglary: An empirical examination of offense and offender characteristics

Key cluster analysis was used to examine the various characteristics of both burglars and burglaries to determine the existence and extent of any relationship between the offender and the incident. The data were gathered from six law enforcement agencies in California.Although some patterns were suggestive of a relationship between race, method of entry, and economic level of the burglarized location, no strong patterns could be found.     

Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics,type of offense,and two types of intervention

The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.     

The application of the transtheoretical model to offender populations: Some critical issues

Purpose. Over the past two decades, the transtheoretical model (TTM) of change has become perhaps the most widely used model of behaviour change in the treatment of addictive and/or problem behaviours. More recently, the stages of change component of the TTM has been adopted for use in forensic settings. This paper aims to review the application of the TTM model to offender populations. Arguments. The application of the TTM to offenders raises a number of issues regarding the process of behaviour change for offenders attending treatment programmes. It is argued that while the TTM has been designed to account for high frequency behaviour (e.g. smoking, alcohol misuse), offending behaviour may be less frequent and the process of change less cyclical. Moreover, it is suggested that the most important issue in a treatment context is the proper integration of the TTM constructs. There have been few empirical tests of this aspect of the model. Conclusion. While the TTM may have some value in explaining how rehabilitation programmes help offenders to change their behaviour, the stages of change construct is, by itself, unlikely to adequately explain the process by which offenders desist from offending.     

The effectiveness of prison for reducing drug offender recidivism: a regression discontinuity analysis

Objectives

An enduring legacy of the 1980s “war on drugs” is the increased use of imprisonment for drug offenders. Advocates anticipated, in part, that prison is more effective than community sanctions in reducing recidivism. Despite the contribution of drug offender incarceration to prison growth nationally, and debates about whether this approach should be curtailed, only limited rigorous research exists that evaluates the effect of imprisonment on drug offender recidivism. To address this gap, this paper uses sentencing and recidivism data from a cohort of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses in Florida to examine the effect of imprisonment—as compared to community sanctions—on recidivism.

Methods

Regression discontinuity analyses are used. These minimize potential selection bias by exogenously assigning cases to conditions based on a rating variable and a cut-off score.

Results

Results indicate that prison has no effect on drug offenders’ rates of reconviction. This finding holds across a range of offender subgroups (racial and ethnic, gender, age, and prior criminal justice system involvement).

Conclusions

Imprisoning individuals convicted of marginally serious drug offenses—that is, those close to a cut-off score for being sent to prison—did not reduce subsequent offending. This finding suggests that curtailing the use of imprisonment for such individuals will not appreciably affect future criminal activity and may have the benefit of reducing correctional system costs.

     

Child abduction: aged-based analyses of offender, victim, and offense characteristics in 550 cases of alleged child disappearance.

Crimes against children, particularly cases involving abduction and/or homicide, continue to be problematic as both a social phenomenon and judicial responsibility. Such cases routinely receive immense community and media attention and rapidly overwhelm investigative resources. Research in the area of childhood victimization, however, has only recently gained national prominence. While numerous studies on child abuse and neglect have been conducted, research on child abduction and homicide remains scant. Previous studies examining child abduction suffer from limited geographical scope or fail to base predictive analyses on victim characteristics. The current study reports the results of a nationally representative sample (47 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico) of 550 cases of alleged child abduction obtained from Federal Bureau of Investigation files for the period 1985 through 1995. Study results demonstrate that both offender and offense characteristics vary significantly according to victim age, gender, and race. Such differences appear critical to crime reconstruction, criminal profiling, and investigative resolution. Additionally, these data suggest that current child abduction prevention programs may emphasize inaccurate offender traits.     

Once a sex offender … always a sex offender: Myth or fact?

In the current focus upon prisons, prisoners, and correctional treatment, there also seems to be an increase in fear of sex offenders. “Once a sex offender, always a sex offender” has become a common belief. The following study, however, has concluded that this phrase is mistaken and misleading. The actual number of sex offenders who recidivate are few. This study, and many prior to this one, have concluded that upwards of 65% donot commit another sex offense. Most reoffenses are committed between 1 and 5 years after release, and the percentage of reoffenders declines rapidly after. A positive correlation was found between length of time spent in prison and recidivism rates. Further studies are suggested to follow up this interesting finding. Authors' Note: This paper was originally presented at the Society for Police and Criminal Psychology meeting in Austin Texas, October, 2001. The authors wish to thank Amy Phenix, Mary Moss, Roxanne Lieb, Elizabeth Drake, Lee Keene, Neal Christopherson, and Larry Greenfeld.     

Criminal homicide and the elderly offender: A theoretical and empirical analysis

This paper theoretically develops and empirically tests factors that significantly affect criminal homicide arrest rate patterns in the United States for elderly criminals of the ages 65 years and older, from 1964 to 1985. The analysis reveais that changes in commonly selected economic, demographic, law enforcement, and punishment variables are significantly correlated with elderly criminal homicide arrest rates in a manner consistent with implications from general theoretical models of criminal behavior and with frameworks specifically dealing with criminal homicide.     

Time for a change: applying the good lives model of rehabilitation to a high-risk violent offender

In this article we operationalise the theoretical concepts of the Good Lives Model (GLM) of offender rehabilitation by providing a step-by-step framework for assessment, formulation, treatment planning, and monitoring with a high-risk violent offender residing in the community. The case study illustrates how the GLM can be applied to complement and enhance traditional Risk-Management interventions and shows how the GLM's clinical relevance extends from sex offending to broader offending typologies.     

The influence of implicit theories and offender characteristics on judgements of sexual offenders: a moderated mediation analysis

The psychological factors underpinning responses to sexual offenders are beginning to receive increased empirical scrutiny. One such factor is offender representativeness, which refers to the extent to which a given offender example matches a stereotype of those who are typically labelled as “sexual offenders”. Using a sample of 252 community members, we examined the role of implicit theories about sexual offenders (ie whether sexual offending is seen as fixed or malleable) in mediating the relationship between affective responses to sexual offenders and policy outcome judgements. We found support for this mediating effect, although this was eliminated when participants were presented with a “non-representative” offender vignette. We argue that the relationship between affective responses and policy judgements is contingent on the activation of a sexual offender stereotype, and that this link can be disrupted via the increased presentation of non-stereotypical case examples. Implications for public debate and professional practice are discussed.     

Power, anger, and sadistic rapists: toward a differentiated model of offender personality

The extant research on rapists repeatedly indicates that particular offender types can be specified. These include the power, anger, and sadistic assailants. Despite such classifications, limited empirical or anecdotal efforts have undertaken the task of exploring the personality features of each rapist type. This article endeavors to fill this gap in the literature. Using the heuristic analytical lens and the case study method, the high-profile crimes of Gilbert Escobedo (power type), Paul Bernardo (anger type), and Jeffrey Dahmer (sadistic type) are reviewed. As the article discloses, unique personality features were exhibited. Moreover, each rapist type displayed a number of convergent as well as divergent character traits. Given these findings, the article concludes with a series of summary observations relevant for future research on rape and personality as well as prospects for clinical diagnosis, treatment, and prevention.     

Protecting Medicare: the best defense is a good offense

Traditional Medicare is being threatened from two political directions. The current Republican coalition, on the right, simply dislikes social insurance in principle. It seeks privatization for its own sake. Another perspective, centrist and well established among political and economic elites, worries that the program is "unaffordable," whatever its basic merits. Defenders of traditional Medicare need to address both threats by explaining why the budgetary fears are misconceived and why privatization is simply a bad idea. In order to do this, they need to take the budgetary high ground, argue more strenuously for short-term cost controls, and criticize the extra spending that the Bush administration has used to encourage private plans within Medicare. Defenders of social insurance should also seek good policy and political allies by proposing that Medicare's network of providers, prices, and administration be made available to employers (and other pools) in much the way that self-insured groups currently rent networks from private insurers.