NEIGHBORHOOD CONTEXT AND NONLINEAR PEER EFFECTS ON ADOLESCENT VIOLENT CRIME*

Although evidence of the strong correlation between deviant behavior and exposure to deviant peers is overwhelming, researchers have yet to investigate whether a nonlinear functional form better captures this relationship than does a linear form. Researchers also have yet to examine the extent to which peer effects vary as a function of the neighborhood context. To address these issues, we use data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) to examine 1) the functional form of the relationship between peer violence exposure and self‐reported violent crime and 2) the extent to which the effect of exposure to violent peers on violence is ecologically structured. Estimates from logistic hierarchical models indicate that the effect of peer violence exposure on violent crime decreases at higher values of peer violence, as reflected in a nonlinear relationship (expressed in terms of log‐odds). Furthermore, exposure to violent peers increases along with neighborhood disadvantage, and the effect of peer violence exposure on violent crime is attenuated as neighborhood disadvantage increases, which is reflected in a cross‐level peer violence/disadvantage interaction.     

NEIGHBORHOOD HOUSING INVESTMENTS AND VIOLENT CRIME IN SEATTLE, 1981–2007*

Despite significant advances in the study of neighborhoods and crime, criminologists have paid surprisingly less attention to the extralocal forces that shape violence. To address this issue, we draw on an emerging body of work that stresses the role of home mortgage lending—a resource secured via interaction with external actors—in reducing neighborhood violence and extend it by addressing concerns that the lending–violence relationship is spurious and confounded by simultaneity. We explore the longitudinal relationship between residential mortgage lending and violence in Seattle with a pooled time series of 118 census tracts over 27 years, and we instrument our endogenous predictors (home mortgage lending and violent crime) with changes in their levels from prior periods. Employing Arellano–Bond difference models, we assess both the effect of mortgage lending on violent crime as well as the effect of violent crime levels on mortgage activity. We find that infusions of home mortgage lending yield reductions in subsequent violent crime; yet the impact of violent crime on subsequent lending is not significant. Results underscore the importance of incorporating external forces such as home mortgage lending into explanations of neighborhood violence.     

Crime, economic conditions, social interactions and family heritage

This paper tests whether factors referring to socio-economic aspects, family heritage, social interaction, habits and customs explain differences among violent and non-violent prisoners. Some of the results of the probit estimation show that economic issues are the main factors that stimulate the practice of non-violent crime. On the other hand, violent crimes results suggest that factors related to family heritage reduce this kind of crime. In relation to variables of social interaction, prisoners who were brought up in a good neighborhood have a lower probability of committing violent crimes.     

FUNDING COMMUNITY POLICING TO REDUCE CRIME: HAVE COPS GRANTS MADE A DIFFERENCE?*

Research Summary: This research examines how funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), has affected violent and property crime rates in the United States from 1995 to 1999. Drawing on six years of panel data, we examine the effects of three types of awards made by COPS to 6,100 law enforcement agencies serving more than 145 million citizens. We estimate their impact on crime reduction over time in jurisdictions receiving funding and controlling for baseline levels of crime, socioeconomic characteristics, city size, and population diversity and mobility. Our analyses suggest that COPS hiring and innovative grant programs have resulted in significant reductions in local crime rates in cities with populations greater than 10,000 for both violent and nonviolent offenses. Multivariate analysis shows that in cities with populations greater than 10,000, an increase in one dollar of hiring grant funding per resident contributed to a corresponding decline of 5.26 violent crimes and 21.63 property crimes per 100,000 residents. Similarly, an increase in one dollar of innovative grant funding per resident has contributed to a decline of 12.93 violent crimes and 45.53 property crimes per 100,000 persons. In addition, the findings suggest that COPS grants have had no significant negative effect on violent and property crime rates in cities with less than 10,000 population. Policy Implications: The findings of this study imply that COPS program funding to medium‐ and large‐size cities has been an effective force in reducing both violent and property crime. Federal government grants made directly to law enforcement agencies to hire additional officers and promote innovations may be an effective way to reduce crime on a national scale.     

ROUTINE ACTIVITIES AND CRIME: AN ANALYSIS OF VICTIMIZATION IN CANADA *

Miethe et al. (1987) have suggested that there are strong interaction effects between demographic characteristics of victims and certain routine activities that occur at night and away from home, but only for victims of property crime. This same pattern does not appear for victims of violent crime, they maintain, because unlike property crime, violent crime often involves interpersonal conflict and disagreement and is therefore spontaneous. Using data from the Canadian Urban Victimization Survey, which contains detailed measures of routine activities not available in Miethe et al. 's U.S. study, this study finds contrary evidence that suggests that personal crime is contingent on the exposure that comes from following certain life-styles. This is particularly true for certain demographic groups, particularly young males. The findings are considered in the light of the literature focusing on the interaction between situation and personality and the importance of the resulting conflict styles in promoting or reducing the opportunity for crime in certain settings and under certain conditions.     

THE PHILADELPHIA FOOT PATROL EXPERIMENT: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL OF POLICE PATROL EFFECTIVENESS IN VIOLENT CRIME HOTSPOTS*

Originating with the Newark, NJ, foot patrol experiment, research has found police foot patrols improve community perception of the police and reduce fear of crime, but they are generally unable to reduce the incidence of crime. Previous tests of foot patrol have, however, suffered from statistical and measurement issues and have not fully explored the potential dynamics of deterrence within microspatial settings. In this article, we report on the efforts of more than 200 foot patrol officers during the summer of 2009 in Philadelphia. Geographic information systems (GIS) analysis was the basis for a randomized controlled trial of police effectiveness across 60 violent crime hotspots. The results identified a significant reduction in the level of treatment area violent crime after 12 weeks. A linear regression model with separate slopes fitted for treatment and control groups clarified the relationship even more. Even after accounting for natural regression to the mean, target areas in the top 40 percent on pretreatment violent crime counts had significantly less violent crime during the operational period. Target areas outperformed the control sites by 23 percent, resulting in a total net effect (once displacement was considered) of 53 violent crimes prevented. The results suggest that targeted foot patrols in violent crime hotspots can significantly reduce violent crime levels as long as a threshold level of violence exists initially. The findings contribute to a growing body of evidence on the contribution of hotspots and place‐based policing to the reduction of crime, and especially violent crime, which is a significant public health threat in the United States. We suggest that intensive foot patrol efforts in violent hotspots may achieve deterrence at a microspatial level, primarily by increasing the certainty of disruption, apprehension, and arrest. The theoretical and practical implications for violence reduction are discussed.     

REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980–2008: SORTING OUT THE “HISPANIC EFFECT” IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS,NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES,AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS*

Recent studies suggest a decline in the relative Black effect on violent crime in recent decades and interpret this decline as resulting from greater upward mobility among African Americans during the past several decades. However, other assessments of racial stratification in American society suggest at least as much durability as change in Black social mobility since the 1980s. Our goal is to assess how patterns of racial disparity in violent crime and incarceration have changed from 1980 to 2008. We argue that prior studies showing a shrinking Black share of violent crime might be in error because of reliance on White and Black national crime statistics that are confounded with Hispanic offenders, whose numbers have been increasing rapidly and whose violence rates are higher than that of Whites but lower than that of Blacks. Using 1980–2008 California and New York arrest data to adjust for this “Hispanic effect” in national Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data, we assess whether the observed national decline in racial disparities in violent crime is an artifact of the growth in Hispanic populations and offenders. Results suggest that little overall change has occurred in the Black share of violent offending in both UCR and NCVS estimates during the last 30 years. In addition, racial imbalances in arrest versus incarceration levels across the index violent crimes are both small and comparably sized across the study period. We conclude by discussing the consistency of these findings with trends in economic and social integration of Blacks in American society during the past 50 years.     

Project Safe Neighborhoods and Violent Crime Trends in US Cities: Assessing Violent Crime Impact

Since the mid-1990s, a number of initiatives intended to address gang, gun and drug-related violence have arisen and demonstrated promise in reducing levels of violent crime. These initiatives have employed some combination of focused deterrence and problem-solving processes. These strategies formed the basis for Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN), a national program implemented by the Department of Justice and coordinated by US Attorneys’ Offices. This paper is an initial attempt to assess the potential impact of the nationally implemented PSN initiative through an analysis of violent crime trends in all US cities with a population of 100,000 or above. While a number of site specific studies exist examining the potential impact of locally implemented PSN programs, to date no national-level study has examined whether PSN may have had an impact on violent crime trends. Cities included in the current study are distinguished on the basis of whether they were considered a treatment city by the PSN task force and by the level of implementation dosage of the PSN program. This allowed a comparison of 82 treatment cities and 170 non-treatment cities as well as a variable of dosage level. Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models (HGLM) were developed that controlled for other factors that may have affected the level of violent crime across the sample of cities. The results suggested that PSN treatment cities in higher dosage contexts experienced statistically significant, though modest, declines in violent crime whereas non-target cities and low dosage contexts experienced no significant changes in violent crime during the same period. The limitations of this initial analysis are noted but the evidence seems to suggest that the multi-agency, focused deterrence, problem solving approach holds promise for reducing levels of violent crime. At a minimum, these findings call for continued programmatic experimentation with data-driven, highly focused, deterrence-based violence reduction strategies.     

IMMIGRATION AND THE RECENT VIOLENT CRIME DROP IN THE UNITED STATES: A POOLED,CROSS‐SECTIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN AREAS*

A good deal of research in recent years has revisited the relationship between immigration and violent crime. Various scholars have suggested that, contrary to the claims of the classic Chicago School, large immigrant populations might be associated with lower rather than higher rates of criminal violence. A limitation of the research in this area is that it has been based largely on cross‐sectional analyses for a restricted range of geographic areas. Using time‐series techniques and annual data for metropolitan areas over the 1994–2004 period, we assess the impact of changes in immigration on changes in violent crime rates. The findings of multivariate analyses indicate that violent crime rates tended to decrease as metropolitan areas experienced gains in their concentration of immigrants. This inverse relationship is especially robust for the offense of robbery. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that the broad reductions in violent crime during recent years are partially attributable to increases in immigration.     

DOING GENDER: SORTING OUT THE CASTE AND CRIME CONUNDRUM*

Theories that examine the relationship between inequality and crime typically privilege one system of stratification over others. In criminology, the system most often assumed to be primary is social class, but other approaches may emphasize gender or racial oppression to account for observed differences in offending patterns. Few, however, systematically link gender and race oppression as moderating etiological variables in the study of crime. From the theoretical and empirical literature on this subject, we discuss (1) how “hegemonic” masculinities and femininities are framed within social institutions such as work, the family, peer group, and schools; (2) how “doing gender” within these sites is modified by race; and (3) anticipated relationships among social structure, social action, and delinquency. Self-report data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth are used to test research hypotheses. Chow interaction tests and comparisons of slope coefficients reveal that gender and race modify independent-variable effects on property and violent delinquency.     

Space matters: An analysis of poverty,poverty clustering,and violent crime

While numerous criminological theories emphasize the theoretical importance of the spatial distribution of poverty, few studies specifically examine the empirical relationship between the spatial clustering of high poverty areas and violent crime rates. In this analysis we examine the association between poverty clustering and violent crime rates across 236 cities. For each city we compute a poverty cluster score that measures the proportion of contiguous high poverty census tracts. We find little support for a direct relationship between the spatial clustering of high poverty tracts and murder, rape, robbery, and assault. However, variables that measure city disadvantage (e.g., poverty) interact with poverty clustering scores in the case of homicide rates. Specifically, disadvantage has a much stronger relationship to homicide in cities with high levels of poverty clustering. Such an interaction effect is strongly supported by the literature.     

Women's fear of violent crime: An exploratory test of a feminist hypothesis

Government-sponsored national victimization surveys in several countries have found consistently that women's fear of violent crime is much greater than their actual chances of being violently victimized. Not suprisingly, most attempts to account for this discrepancy begin with the assumption that women's fear is subjectively based. A few feminist theorists, however, have challenged this view. They argue that women's fear of violent crime is much more objective than the crime surveys indicate. Women's fear results in part, they suggest, from being physically abused by a husband, boyfriend, or other male intimate; an experience largely untouched in the crime surveys. Such abuse creates a generalized fear of male violence, which has shown up in the victimization surveys as fear of violent crime in public places. This study tested, and found some support for, the feminist hypothesis, using data from a telephone survey of a representative sample of 315 Toronto women.     

The reduction of violent crime through economic equality for women

Normally we do not link the reduction of violent crime with equal rights for women, this paper traces such a linkage. Central to the logic of this argument is that the distribution of the frequency of violent crime is often described by a bimodal curve which supposedly distinguishes between minor, unimportant offenders and a distinct group of serious offenders: the target for many policies being the latter. In fact, this bimodal distribution does not exist; therefore, policies based on it will be fruitless. The larger group of minor offenders is basically ignored. The distribution of violence is better described as a continuous skewed curve which retains its shape. Thus, an effective policy to reduce violence would have to shift the entire curve to the left. Reducing the more numerous acts of lesser violence rather than concentrating on the rarer cases of extreme violence would be more effective. Since much violence is nurtured in family settings, policies that decrease stress in family settings would have a meaningful impact on future violence. Stress could be reduced with greater economic equality for women, making it possible for them to leave potentially violent domestic settings. In the long term this would have an impact on violent crime.     

POLICE PRODUCTIVITY AND CRIME RATES: 1973-1992*

According to the Uniform Crime Reports, violent crime rates increased dramatically over the past two decades. National Crime Victimization Survey data, on the other hand, indicate that the rates of violent crime remained relatively stable or dropped during this period. Which series provides a “correct” estimate of crime-rate trends is of more than academic interest. Highly publicized statistics on crime trends influence the public's concerns about crime and the decisions of policymakers both directly through their own perceptions of crime trends and indirectly through demands by the general public to control crime. This article compares these two major series on trends in violent crime rates in the United States for the period 1973–1992, with the goal of assessing the extent to which they measure the same underlying phenomenon: fluctuations in violent crime rates. The series are related (but not strongly). My conclusion, with some reservation, is that changes in law enforcement agencies rather than changes in the rates of violent crime incidents have created the upward trend in UCR violent crime rates during the past two decades.     

Democratization Processes and Homicide Rates in the Balkan Region,Bulgaria and Romania

The transition of countries from an autocratic to a democratic regime is a complex process characterized by big political, social and economic changes. This process is usually accompanied by an increase in violent crime rates which has been investigated by a large number of studies in the last decades. A special role in this analysis is played by the studies on the former communist countries, especially the ones that stress the relationship between post-communist regimes and the exponential rise of violent crime rates experienced in their transition. The majority of these studies have tried to explain the violent crime booms, but no research empirically tested if violent crime is willing to decrease as democracies consolidated. According to one of the most recent studies by Alvazzi del Frate and Mugellini, the Western Balkan region and a large number of “Non-Western” countries have recently experienced a drop in their homicide rates which has not been empirically analysed yet. This article aims at fulfilling this lack of knowledge by empirically analyzing eight countries of the Balkan region, Bulgaria and Romania. The main hypothesis is that, in terms of reduction of violent crime, there is a benefit in shifting from a transitional to a more democratic regime in post-communist countries. Data on Polity score and homicide rate from 1995 to 2011 were collected to conduct a fixed effect panel data analysis on the level of democracy and violent crime in the Balkan region, Bulgaria and Romania confirming a negative association between the two variables.     

Violent Crime,Residential Instability and Mobility: Does the Relationship Differ in Minority Neighborhoods?

This study examines the reciprocal relationship between violent crime and residential stability in neighborhoods. We test whether the form of stability matters by comparing two different measures of stability: a traditional index of residential stability and a novel approach focusing specifically on the stability of homeowners. We also examine whether the racial/ethnic composition of the neighborhood in which this stability occurs affects the instability—violent crime relationship. To test the simultaneous relationship between residential mobility and crime we estimate a dual multivariate latent curve model of the change in the violent crime rate and the change in the rate of home sales while controlling for neighborhood socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using data from Los Angeles between 1992 and 1997. Results indicate that the initial level of violent crime increases the trajectory of residential instability in subsequent years, whether the instability is measured as homeowner turnover specifically, or based on an index of all residents. However, the effect of instability on violent crime is only apparent when measuring instability based on an index of general residential turnover and not when including the presence of owners in this measure, or when measuring it based on homeowner turnover. We consistently find that stable highly Latino communities exhibit a protective effect against violence.     

Patterns of violent specialization: Predictors of recidivism for a cohort of parolees

Historically, there has been interest in the unfolding of criminal careers, especially in the persistence, specialization, and prediction of violent recidivism. Specialization in violent crime is particularly important as both the public and politicians have called for longer sentences, incapacitation, and prison expansion for violent offenders. However, research on the specialization of violent crime has been largely overlooked in spite of its importance to criminal justice practitioners and public interest. To examine the specialization in crime, this research uses data collected in Ohio in 1989 on a cohort of 3,353 parolees released from prison. Specialization is defined as the exclusive admission to prison for a violent crime with a subsequent violent recidivism offense. Logistic regression is used to delineate predictors of violent specialization. Race, county of commitment, age at release, time served, number of prior felony convictions, and number of prior parole revocations are found to be related to violent specialization.     

Schizophrenia and violent crime: the experience of parents

Individuals with schizophrenia have an increased risk of committing a violent crime, although their contribution to the overall criminality in society is small. In this qualitative study we have interviewed parents of adult sons, diagnosed with schizophrenia and who recently had been referred to forensic psychiatric treatment due to a violent crime, with an aim to explore the parents' experiences and emotional reactions. Four events, or status passages, emerged as crucial and common for all parents. These were the onset of the mental disorder, the diagnosis of schizophrenia, the violent behaviour/criminality and the recent referral to forensic psychiatric treatment. Every passage evoked strong emotional reactions such as guilt, fear, disappointment, anger and relief, which in return led to different actions taken. Unawareness of the character and severity of their sons' mental illness and the type of violent criminality they had committed were common and complicated contacts both between the parents and their sons, and also between family members and official authorities. The findings emphasize that psychiatric health care professionals must take the initiative and responsibility for information, education and support of family members.     

Crime and Residential Choice: A Neighborhood Level Analysis of the Impact of Crime on Housing Prices

Crime serves as an important catalyst for change in the socio-economic composition of communities. While such change occurs over a long period of time, crime is capitalized into local housing markets quickly and thus provides an early indicator of neighborhood transition. Using hedonic regression, we quantify this “intangible cost” of crime and extend the crime-housing price literature in several important ways. First, we disaggregate crime to the census tract level. Second, using longitudinal data, we examine changes in crime in addition to the neighborhood levels of crime. Third, we differentiate between the effects of property crime and violent crime. Fourth, we also disaggregate our sample into groups based on per capita income of the census tract. Finally, we show that it is vital to account for the measurement error that is endemic in reported crime statistics. We address this with an instrumental variable approach. Our results indicate that the average impacts of crime rates on house prices are misleading. We find that crime is capitalized at different rates for poor, middle class and wealthy neighborhoods and that violent crime imparts the greatest cost.

Violent Crime in the Urban Community: A Comparison of Stockholm and Basel

In this article the authors present some preliminary findings from a comparative study of police recorded violent crimes in Stockholm and Basel. They present the first results from a comparative analysis of the situational context, the ecology of crime, and of offender residences in these cities. There is impressive evidence of basic similarities in the situational context of violent crime and the residential distribution of violent offenders. Yet there are also significant differences, some of which may have interesting implications for crime prevention. Firstly, violent crime seems to be more highly concentrated during weekend nights in Stockholm than in Basel. Secondly, they find evidence that the presence of weapons in a community increases the risk of more serious outcomes of violent events. Efforts to reduce the availability of weapons may thus have significant effects on the outcomes of violence, but not necessarily on its frequency. Thirdly, they show that offenders in both cities are highly concentrated in socially disorganised communities with few economic and social resources.