Local politics and police strength

Numerous studies have explored variation in police employment across cities, usually focusing on public choice, conflict, or organizational explanations. Yet, few consider whether the local political context affects police employment. Recent research suggests that local politics affects criminal justice outcomes. Using insights from urban politics research, I develop testable hypotheses about the effects of local political arrangements on municipal police strength. WLS regression results suggest the value of considering local political context in models of police strength. Specifically, in a sample of 945 cities with 25,000 or more residents in 1990, net of other variables, cities with unreformed political systems (mayor‐council forms of government, district‐based city councils and partisan elections) had more police employees per 1,000 residents, and this effect varied by region. Additionally, the effect of minority populations and crime rates on police strength varied across municipal political contexts. Implications for theories of police strength are discussed.     

Violent crime and modernization in Colombia

This paper assesses violent crime in Colombia by focusing on police arrest data from 1938 to 1967. Social and political conditions provide the cultural context from which the effects of modernization on crime are examined. Shelley's modermization perspective claims that violent crime increases when a country modernizes, but property crimes increase after relative wealth and prosperity are achieved. Regression results support Shelley's perspective for the crimes of robbery and theft, whereas her theory gamered weaker support for the crimes of homicide and assault. Theoretical implications for modernization theory in light of the findings are discussed.     

CORRELATES OF VIOLENT POLITICAL EXTREMISM IN THE UNITED STATES*

Although research on terrorism has grown rapidly in recent years, few scholars have applied criminological theories to the analysis of individual‐level political extremism. Instead, researchers focused on radicalization have drawn primarily from political science and psychology and have overwhelmingly concentrated on violent extremists, leaving little variation in the dependent variable. With the use of a newly available data set, we test whether variables derived from prominent criminological theories are helpful in distinguishing between nonviolent and violent extremists. The results show that variables related to social control (lack of stable employment), social learning (radical peers), psychological perspectives (history of mental illness), and criminal record all have significant effects on participation in violent political extremism and are robust across multiple techniques for imputing missing data. At the same time, other common indicators of social control (e.g., education and marital status) and social learning perspectives (e.g., radical family members) were not significant in the multivariate models. We argue that terrorism research would benefit from including criminology insights and by considering political radicalization as a dynamic, evolving process, much as life‐course criminology treats more common forms of crime.     

FUNDING COMMUNITY POLICING TO REDUCE CRIME: HAVE COPS GRANTS MADE A DIFFERENCE?*

Research Summary: This research examines how funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), has affected violent and property crime rates in the United States from 1995 to 1999. Drawing on six years of panel data, we examine the effects of three types of awards made by COPS to 6,100 law enforcement agencies serving more than 145 million citizens. We estimate their impact on crime reduction over time in jurisdictions receiving funding and controlling for baseline levels of crime, socioeconomic characteristics, city size, and population diversity and mobility. Our analyses suggest that COPS hiring and innovative grant programs have resulted in significant reductions in local crime rates in cities with populations greater than 10,000 for both violent and nonviolent offenses. Multivariate analysis shows that in cities with populations greater than 10,000, an increase in one dollar of hiring grant funding per resident contributed to a corresponding decline of 5.26 violent crimes and 21.63 property crimes per 100,000 residents. Similarly, an increase in one dollar of innovative grant funding per resident has contributed to a decline of 12.93 violent crimes and 45.53 property crimes per 100,000 persons. In addition, the findings suggest that COPS grants have had no significant negative effect on violent and property crime rates in cities with less than 10,000 population. Policy Implications: The findings of this study imply that COPS program funding to medium‐ and large‐size cities has been an effective force in reducing both violent and property crime. Federal government grants made directly to law enforcement agencies to hire additional officers and promote innovations may be an effective way to reduce crime on a national scale.     

Democratization Processes and Homicide Rates in the Balkan Region,Bulgaria and Romania

The transition of countries from an autocratic to a democratic regime is a complex process characterized by big political, social and economic changes. This process is usually accompanied by an increase in violent crime rates which has been investigated by a large number of studies in the last decades. A special role in this analysis is played by the studies on the former communist countries, especially the ones that stress the relationship between post-communist regimes and the exponential rise of violent crime rates experienced in their transition. The majority of these studies have tried to explain the violent crime booms, but no research empirically tested if violent crime is willing to decrease as democracies consolidated. According to one of the most recent studies by Alvazzi del Frate and Mugellini, the Western Balkan region and a large number of “Non-Western” countries have recently experienced a drop in their homicide rates which has not been empirically analysed yet. This article aims at fulfilling this lack of knowledge by empirically analyzing eight countries of the Balkan region, Bulgaria and Romania. The main hypothesis is that, in terms of reduction of violent crime, there is a benefit in shifting from a transitional to a more democratic regime in post-communist countries. Data on Polity score and homicide rate from 1995 to 2011 were collected to conduct a fixed effect panel data analysis on the level of democracy and violent crime in the Balkan region, Bulgaria and Romania confirming a negative association between the two variables.     

Examining the Impact of Early Childhood School Investments on Neighborhood Crime

This study tested the hypothesis that investments in early childhood schools have short-term crime reducing effects in neighborhoods. Time series data from the city of Tulsa, Oklahoma, were analyzed to evaluate the effects of an early childhood school built in the neighborhood of Kendall-Whittier as part of a larger neighborhood revitalization plan, on violent and property crime. Results revealed that after controlling for city-wide crime trends and monthly fluctuations, violent crime declined significantly in Kendall-Whittier. Further analysis indicated that the possible crime-reducing effects of school investments on violent crime spread beyond Kendall-Whittier, and no displacement was found. The results for property crime were mixed. The study demonstrates the use of clustering analysis, a useful tool in neighborhood-level research to identify comparison neighborhoods. The findings shed light on the possibility that investments in early childhood schools can yield results in a shorter term than anticipated, making them a desirable component of urban revitalization.     

LAND USE AND VIOLENT CRIME*

Although research has shown specific land uses to be related to crime, systematic investigation of land uses and violent crime has been less common. This study systematically examines links between land uses and violent crime and assesses whether such links are conditioned by socioeconomic disadvantage. We employ geocoded Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data from the Indianapolis police department and information on 30 categories of land use and demographic information from the 2000 U.S. Census. We use land use variables to predict violent crime counts in 1,000 × 1,000‐feet grid cells using negative binomial regression models. Results indicate that, net of other variables, specific land uses predict variation in counts for individual violent crimes and aggregate rates. Some nonresidential land uses are associated with higher violent crime counts, whereas others are associated with lower counts. Specific land uses also condition the effects of socioeconomic disadvantage on violent crime. The implications for routine activity/opportunity and social disorganization/collective efficacy theories of crime are discussed.     

An Examination of the Relationship Between Media Exposure and Fear of Victimization: Implications of the Superpredator Narrative on Juvenile Justice Policies

The media allow crime to infiltrate the public’s consciousness in every conceivable way, thereby playing a major role in shaping the public’s opinion and attitude toward crime and crime issues (Barak, 1995; Fields & Jerin, 1996; Kappeler & Potter, 2005). Reporters constantly talk about crime, and crime related stories dominate the headlines of local and national newspaper outlets (Dowler, 2003; Pizarro et al, 2007). Some of the most highly rated television programs are based on crime plots and people across social, political, and racial demographics are constantly engaged in crime dialogue generated from local or national news stories. When the focus of these mediums is on youth they become even more profound and contentious. The images portrayed conjure up stereotypes that lead to fear and inflammatory remarks that become entrenched into the national lexicon. The current study uses data from the National Opinion Survey of Crime and Justice to test the relationship between crime-related media viewership and fear of victimization within a nationally representative adult sample. Approximately 42.67% of respondents reported regularly watching crime shows and about the same proportion (42.83%) believed their local media paid too much attention to violent crime. In addition to regular crime-show viewership, confidence in the police, gender, and recent contact with the police were associated with fear of victimization. This article adds to an existing body of research through a largely unexplored area in the administration of justice. It does so within the context of the U.S. juvenile justice system.     

The rate of surplus value and crime. A theoretical and empirical examination of Marxian economic theory and criminology

Radical criminology is often dismissed on the claim that it is not empirically verifiable. In this paper we argue that grounding the radical approach in Marx's theory of surplus values creates an empirically testable Marxian theory applicable to understanding rates of criminal offending and official responses to criminal behavior. Our analysis demonstrates that the rate of surplus value is a statistically significant predictor of the rate of property crimes known, property crime arrests, violent crimes known, violent crime arrests and total index crimes known to police in the U.S. from 1950 to 1974 controlling for the effects of predictor variables identified in earlier research on crime rates. The theoretical implications of this finding and the importance of the theory of surplus value to the development of radical criminology are also discussed.     

THE IMPACT OF ORDER‐MAINTENANCE POLICING ON NEW YORK CITY HOMICIDE AND ROBBERY RATES: 1988‐2001*

Local officials and national observers have attributed the New York City drop in violent crime during the 1990s to the aggressive enforcement of public order, but relevant research is limited and yields contrasting conclusions regarding the effects of order‐maintenance policing (OMP) on violent crime trends in New York City. The current study investigates the effects of order‐maintenance arrests on precinct‐level robbery and homicide trends in New York City with more reliable crime and arrest data, longer time series, and more extensive controls for other influences than used in prior research. We find statistically significant but small crime‐reduction effects of OMP and conclude that the impact of aggressive order enforcement on the reduction in homicide and robbery rates in New York City during the 1990s was modest at best.     

Patterns of violent specialization: Predictors of recidivism for a cohort of parolees

Historically, there has been interest in the unfolding of criminal careers, especially in the persistence, specialization, and prediction of violent recidivism. Specialization in violent crime is particularly important as both the public and politicians have called for longer sentences, incapacitation, and prison expansion for violent offenders. However, research on the specialization of violent crime has been largely overlooked in spite of its importance to criminal justice practitioners and public interest. To examine the specialization in crime, this research uses data collected in Ohio in 1989 on a cohort of 3,353 parolees released from prison. Specialization is defined as the exclusive admission to prison for a violent crime with a subsequent violent recidivism offense. Logistic regression is used to delineate predictors of violent specialization. Race, county of commitment, age at release, time served, number of prior felony convictions, and number of prior parole revocations are found to be related to violent specialization.     

A contextual analysis of crime rates: The Korean case<Superscript>⋆</Superscript>

During recent attempts to understand crime in relation to its environments, studies have focused on a single aspect of either economic or organizational context. Furthermore, scant attention has been given to the independent role of the political influence on response to criminal activity. This study examines the relative roles of economic conditions, organizational constraints of police, and political climate in explaining changes in crime rates by incorporating these three contexts into a single study. By using a variety of official statistics, we conducted time-series analyses to examine the social context of crime over the past three decades in South Korea. Findings indicate, first, that the unemployment rate is the best predictor of changes in crime rates; it consistently increased the level of both property and violent crimes. Second, organizational capacity, as indicated by police per capita, is found not to have any consistent effect on crime rates. Third, the impact of political repression, measured by the presence of extraordinary laws and the number of political prisoners, also shows inconsistent effects on crime. However, crime rates were somewhat lower during the past three military regimes, which support the argument that authoritarian governments exercised more punitive sanctions to deter crimes. Implications are discussed and suggestions are offered for future research on this topic.This work was supported by Korean Research Foundation Grant (KRF-2004-003-BO0142). An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2004 mettings of the American Society of Criminology. We would like to thank Ivan Sun for his insightful comments and helpful suggestions.     

PROBLEM-ORIENTED POLICING IN VIOLENT CRIME PLACES: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED EXPERIMENT*

Over the past decade, problem-oriented policing has become a central strategy for policing. In a number of studies, problem-oriented policing has been found to be effective in reducing crime and disorder. However, very little is known about the value of problem-oriented interventions in controlling violent street crime. The National Academy of Sciences' Panel on the Understanding and Control of Violent Behavior suggests that sustained research on problem-oriented policing initiatives that modify places, routine activities, and situations that promote violence could contribute much to the understanding and control of violence. This study evaluates the effects of problem-oriented policing interventions on urban violent crime problems in Jersey City, New Jersey. Twenty-four high-activity, violent crime places were matched into 12 pairs and one member of each pair was allocated to treatment conditions in a randomized block field experiment. The results of the impact evaluation support the growing body of research that asserts focused police efforts can reduce crime and disorder at problem places without causing crime problems to displace to surrounding areas.     

CIVIC COMMUNITY IN THE HINTERLAND: TOWARD A THEORY OF RURAL SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND VIOLENCE*

Drawing on the civic community literature, this article explicates a theoretical model to explain variation in rates of violence across rural communities. It is hypothesized that rural communities with a stable population base that is locally invested, a vibrant participatory civic culture with a well‐developed noneconomic institutional base, and a robust economically independent middle class will have lower rates of violent crime. Results from the analysis of data for more than 1,000 rural counties reveal that the 11 variables used to operationalize the theory are empirically distinguishable from indicators of resource disadvantage and form three well‐defined indices: a residential stability/local investment factor, a local capitalism/independent middle class factor, and a civic engagement factor. Negative binomial regression models confirm that violent crime rates are generally much lower in communities that score high on these dimensions. Implications of these findings for future macrolevel criminological research are discussed.     

Liberal versus conservative public policies on crime: What was the comparative track record during the 1990s?

The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of social control and social support policies associated with conservative and liberal political ideologies with respect to violent crime in large U.S. cities during the 1990s. Eighty-five cities with populations of 150,000+ were included in the analysis; these cities accounted for fifty-two million urban area residents of the U.S. The use of the two-way, fixed-effect panel data method of statistical analysis enabled the authors to assess the relationship between change in local government expenditures for police and court services (social control) and expenditures on community development and park/recreation (support policy) and corresponding changes in crime rates documented within these cities. The findings indicated that expenditure on both police services and community development initiatives had significantly suppressive effects on crime in these cities during the period of the 1990s. It appeared that both conservative and liberal policies had their merits as effective countermeasures to crime.     

DOES UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRATION INCREASE VIOLENT CRIME?*

Despite substantial public, political, and scholarly attention to the issue of immigration and crime, we know little about the criminological consequences of undocumented immigration. As a result, fundamental questions about whether undocumented immigration increases violent crime remain unanswered. In an attempt to address this gap, we combine newly developed estimates of the unauthorized population with multiple data sources to capture the criminal, socioeconomic, and demographic context of all 50 states and Washington, DC, from 1990 to 2014 to provide the first longitudinal analysis of the macro‐level relationship between undocumented immigration and violence. The results from fixed‐effects regression models reveal that undocumented immigration does not increase violence. Rather, the relationship between undocumented immigration and violent crime is generally negative, although not significant in all specifications. Using supplemental models of victimization data and instrumental variable methods, we find little evidence that these results are due to decreased reporting or selective migration to avoid crime. We consider the theoretical and policy implications of these findings against the backdrop of the dramatic increase in immigration enforcement in recent decades.     

Police Officers on Drug Corners in Philadelphia,Drug Crime,and Violent Crime: Intended,Diffusion, and Displacement Impacts

On May 1, 2002, the Philadelphia Police Department launched Operation Safe Streets, stationing officers at 214 of the highest drug activity locations in the city 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Interrupted time series (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models on weekly data isolated citywide and local program impacts on all violent crimes, murder, and reported drug crimes. Results showed no significant impacts on citywide weekly counts for drug crimes, homicides, or all violent crimes. Geographically focused analyses showed significant localized intervention impacts for both violent and drug crimes. Analyses of high‐drug‐activity non‐intervention sites suggest: the program impacts seen were not an artifact of history or local history; significant spatial diffusion of preventive benefits for violent crime; and probably significant spatial displacement for drug crime. Stationary targeted drug‐enforcement interventions like Operation Safe Streets may differentially affect the locational selection processes behind violent crime versus drug crime.     

U.S. SOCIAL STRUCTURE, CRIME, AND IMPRISONMENT

This research develops a structural model of crime and imprisonment in the United States from data on 49 states which was evaluated through a series of path and regression analyses. The major findings revealed that crime rates were effectively predicted by social structural characteristics, primarily urban population characteristics, and in turn that prison admissions were predicted by crime rates. Prison releases were not as strongly influenced by structural characteristics as crime rates and prison admissions; however, prison admissions were found to significantly affect releases. Variations in social structural determinants of violent and property crimes were also observed. The implication of these results ore discussed and suggestions for future research are presented.     

DOES WHAT POLICE DO AT HOT SPOTS MATTER? THE PHILADELPHIA POLICING TACTICS EXPERIMENT*

Policing tactics that are proactive, focused on small places or groups of people in small places, and tailor specific solutions to problems using careful analysis of local conditions seem to be effective at reducing violent crime. But which tactics are most effective when applied at hot spots remains unknown. This article documents the design and implementation of a randomized controlled field experiment to test three policing tactics applied to small, high‐crime places: 1) foot patrol, 2) problem‐oriented policing, and 3) offender‐focused policing. A total of 81 experimental places were identified from the highest violent crime areas in Philadelphia (27 areas were judged amenable to each policing tactic). Within each group of 27 areas, 20 places were randomly assigned to receive treatment and 7 places acted as controls. Offender‐focused sites experienced a 42 percent reduction in all violent crime and a 50 percent reduction in violent felonies compared with their control places. Problem‐oriented policing and foot patrol did not significantly reduce violent crime or violent felonies. Potential explanations of these findings are discussed in the contexts of dosage, implementation, and hot spot stability over time.     

Fear,Social Interactions,and Violence Mitigation

The fear of crime is generally considered as a social ill that undermines dimensions of individual well-being. Prior research generally specifies the fear of crime as an outcome variable in order to understand its complex etiology. More recently, however, researchers have suggested fear has a deterrence function whereby it reduces individuals’ involvement in violent encounters. This notion could hold important clues to understand the social sources of violence. We examine whether the fear of crime inhibits involvement in violent encounters, both as offender or victim, and if adjustments in routine activities explain these effects. The results suggest fear of crime reduces violence involvement, in part, by constraining routine activities. We conclude that the fear of crime appears to be a mechanism of violence mitigation that, paradoxically, bolsters physical well-being. The results are discussed with regard to their implications for criminological theory and research on interpersonal violence.