Similarity between deviant peers: Developmental trends in influence and selection*

The association between an adolescent's own behavior and that of his or her peers remains a key empirical finding in the study of delinquency, and this similarity is often explained in criminology by invoking processes of social influence and homophily. Adolescence is a period of rapid change for both individuals and their surroundings, however, and influence and homophily are often discussed without attending to their development over time. In the current study, I employ longitudinal social network models to estimate social influence and homophily related to alcohol and cigarette use and to determine whether there is change in the strength of these processes. Furthermore, I test whether the broader social environment conditions these processes and their observed changes. The results from this study indicate that although influence from peers decreases from early to mid-adolescence, homophily on drinking and smoking increases. There is also evidence that school-level opportunities and expectations affect social influence and homophily but do not account for the average changes observed in these processes.     

Policy processes and police reform: Examining similarities and differences between Scotland and the Netherlands

During 2013 the national governments of both the Netherlands and Scotland have introduced radical reforms which have replaced largely autonomous regional police forces with a national police service. Despite these structural similarities, however, there are important differences in the underlying processes which have shaped these reforms and the broader narratives about policing which have informed public and policy discourses.The purpose of this paper is to understand the underlying dynamics of these police reforms. Following an overview of concepts drawn from the public policy literature regarding policy change, the paper describes in detail the structural changes to policing that have occurred in both countries. These structural changes relate not just to the spatial re-organization of policing but also to the structure of police governance and accountability. The focus then shifts to disentangling key aspects of the decision-making processes which led to the reforms drawing on Kingdon's analysis of policy change and policy formation. The paper concludes with a broader discussion of the similarities and differences in police reform in the two countries, highlighting important issues regarding the significance of political context, debates around localism and policing, and narratives regarding a normative vision of the police role.     

NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGES IN ECOLOGY AND VIOLENCE*

We investigate links between ecological changes and changes in violence in Baltimore neighborhoods in the 1970's The two most salient ecological changes during the decade were (1) the emergence of a large number of gentrifying neighborhoods and (2) the further absorption of several older, minority neighborhoods into an “underclass” status Relative deprivation and social disorganization each predict increasing violence in gentrifying and emerging underclass neighborhoods. But, relative deprivation theory highlights the role of changes in economic status, whereas social disorganization highlights the role of changes in stability or family status. We further suggest that connections between ecological change and changes in disorder are contingent not only on historical context, but also on overall neighborhood structure at the beginning of the period. We hypothesize: (a) neighborhoods becoming more solidly “underclass” will experience increasing violence as status and stability decline and (b) emerging gentrifying neighborhoods will experience increasing violence as status and stability increase. Controlling for spatial autocorrelation, results support these hypotheses In emerging underclass neighborhoods status changes are most clearly linked to violence changes, whereas in gentrifying neighborhoods violence shifts are most closely tied to changing stability.     

Chronicling National Assembly committees as markers of institutional change

This article examines changes to the National Assembly for Wales committees and how they act as markers that help explain the dynamics of a significant and contemporaneous constitutional journey. It uses as its backdrop recent constitutional and political change in the UK, particularly that initiated by devolution. Uniquely, we draw upon management theory as well as political science to explain why changes in the focus, identity and profile of Assembly committees represent significant markers or reflectors of constitutional shifts. We suggest that examining key components within the internal architecture of parliaments at different stages of development offers an additional and complementary level of institutional analysis. Our review of the Assembly committees reveals that they have reflected the pace and shape of change in Welsh devolution, and that shifts in their profile and operation offer another insight into devolution, whilst also reflecting wider institutional and political change.     

Fate and Behavior of Gunshot Residue—A Review

A review of the literature concerning the fate and behavior of gunshot residue (GSR) is presented. A number of concomitant parameters including firearm and ammunition type, plume and GSR material characteristics, travel distances, chemical composition and GSR morphology are critically discussed in relation to their effects on the distribution and deposition, transfer and persistence processes of GSR. The underlying mechanisms associated with such processes are also considered. Knowledge of these processes on GSR materials could provide valuable information concerning scene preservation and subsequent forensic sampling. The number of GSR particles deposited can vary significantly with each firearm discharge, highlighting the potential to produce distinctive data in each individual case. With the continual development and compositional changes of new ammunition types, further evaluation of the effect these processes may have on GSR evidence and their possible influence on the interpretation of the analytical results should be given due consideration.     

The morphofunctional changes in the internal organs in the modelling of poisonings by psilocybine-containing mushrooms]

Histological analysis of the viscera in experimental poisoning with psilocybin-containing mushrooms showed nonspecific changes in all examined organs, presenting as expressed hemocirculatory disorders and intracellular dystrophy. Quantitative histochemical analysis showed appreciable shifts in the activities of enzymes involved in the cytoplasmic and mitochondrial redox processes and of specific enzymes involved in nerve tissue metabolism. This may reflect some features in the direct effects of narcotic alkaloids contained in psilocybin-producing mushrooms.     

Efficiency, Viability and the New Rules of the Internet

What is the role of rational efficiency and evolutionary viability in explaining long-term processes of institutional change? The rapid changes surrounding the emergence of markets on and around the Internet are observed as evidence for such processes. Events involving rule emergence on the Internet observed between 1985 and 2000 are registered and ordered within a three-dimensional matrix of 90 cells. They are reported in a narrative account that gives a rough impression of the richness of rule and regime emergence. The account highlights major episodes to illustrate the more general process. The results confirm that efficiency maintains its explanatory power under the new circumstances, particularly in accounting for private rule adjustment behavior due to changes in transaction costs. The results also suggest that the evolutionary competition for viability of public organizations and institutions operates as another, complementary explanation. It explains, among other things, the overall growth of influence of new public-private organizations at the expense of national legal institutions.     

Party Differentiation in Congress

Abstract At times, the American political parties are so close in terms of policy positions that critics denounce the lack of a “dime's worth of difference” between them. At other times, the gap between them on a left‐right dimension is huge. How can we explain this variation? We argue that parties can behave rationally as collective units, and that shifts in divergence and convergence can be explained as rational responses to changes within governmental institutions and to shifts in conditions outside. We analyze this argument using adjusted ADA scores (Groseclose, Levitt, and Snyder 1999) to compare voting score differences between the Democratic and Republican parties in Congress from 1952 to 1996. We pose specific hypotheses for potentially important factors shaping party behavior and test them with a multivariate model. Our results support the argument that the variation in the behavioral gap between the two parties in Congress can be explained as rational party responses to internal and external stimuli.     

American Criminal Trial Films: An Overview of Their Development, 1930–2000

The history of American trial films – and I am speaking of trial films in general at the moment, not of the sub-division of criminal trial films – has been shaped both by changes in public attitudes toward law and lawyers and by shifts in viewer tastes. These same factors have necessitated changes in the way we define 'American trial films'. In earlier years one could recognize a trial film with relative ease: it was a drama in which a heroic lawyer or lawyer surrogate solved the film's dilemmas in the course of a civil or criminal trial, usually a trial held within a courtroom. Contemporary movies, in contrast, are more interested in action than in debate and oratory, and they are more cynical about the effectiveness of legal processes. Thus they tend to embed a short trial scene in a longer adventure story, and they seldom depict lawyers as heroes on the grand scale or courts as places where fundamental social and moral issues are settled. In sum, the trial film genre is undergoing major change, if not dissolution.     

DELINQUENT PEERS IN CONTEXT: A LONGITUDINAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF SELECTION AND INFLUENCE EFFECTS*

In this article, longitudinal social network data are analyzed to get a better understanding of the interplay between delinquent peers and delinquent behavior. These data contain detailed information about the social networks of secondary school students from the same grade, their delinquent behavior, and many relevant correlates of network formation and delinquency. To distinguish selection and influence processes, a method (Simulation Investigation for Empirical Network Analyses, SIENA) is used in which network formation and changes in delinquency are simulated simultaneously within the context of other network processes and correlates of delinquency. The data and the method used make it possible to investigate an unusually wide array of effects on peer selection and delinquent behavior. The results indicate that similarity in delinquency has no significant effect on the selection of school friends when other network dynamics are taken into account. However, the average delinquency level of someone's friends in the school network does have a significant, although relatively small, effect on delinquent behavior of the respondents, beyond significant effects of changes in the level of self‐control and morality. Another peer‐related change, leaving or joining informal street‐oriented youth groups, also appears to have a substantial effect on changes in delinquency.     

论日常生活题材在当代文学史上的价值变迁

日常生活题材在当代文学史上的命运一波三折.它曾经被作为无价值的低级趣味题材受到长期的排斥,在新时期文艺创作中则被看作是一个揭示更有意义生活的"入口".1980年代末期以后,该题材获得了充分的价值认可.这一价值变迁既与政治因素的进退有关,又是60年社会生活主题变奏的结果.     

Investigating the Influence of Non-state Actors on Amendments to the CITES Appendices

Abstract

Non-state actors are playing an increasing role in global environmental governance. Elucidating the modalities and implications of this engagement is important to understanding international policy-making processes. CITES, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, is the primary mechanism for regulating international wildlife trade. It functions by listing species in its Appendices with corresponding trade controls. Accurately listing species in the Appendices is therefore fundamental to the Convention’s effectiveness. We investigate the influence of non-state actors on amending the CITES Appendices using an established framework for assessing NGO influence in international environmental negotiations. We find that non-state actors have been successful in issue framing and agenda setting, and in influencing the position of other actors and final decisions. We also find evidence that NGOs have sought to abuse CITES in pursuit of “campaign” victories, including claiming unwarranted victories, thus undermining NGO legitimacy and accountability. We recommend that the CITES parties seek the most robust science to inform decision-making on proposed amendments to the appendices, which should be broadened to include socioeconomic and economic considerations in order that proposals are evaluated in their real-world context. We further recommend that NGOs should seek to fully understand decision-making in the Convention in order to maximise their legitimate contribution to CITES. Further research is needed to fully elucidate the influence of non-state actors in CITES.     

EXAMINING THE GENERALITY OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT–CRIME ASSOCIATION

This article examines whether the relationship between unemployment and criminal offending depends on the type of crime analyzed. We rely on fixed‐effects regression models to assess the association between changes in unemployment status and changes in violent crime, property crime, and driving under the influence (DUI) over a 6‐year period. We also examine whether the type of unemployment benefit received moderates the link to criminal behavior. We find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime but not on other types of crime. Our estimates also suggest that unemployed young males commit less crime while participating in active labor market programs when compared with periods during which they receive standard unemployment benefits.     

State Politics and the Right to Counsel: A Comparative Analysis

One of the most significant recent developments in the study of crime and justice is the emergence of theoretical explanations for the dramatic changes in criminal justice policy over the past few decades. These theoretical accounts address not only highly visible developments, such as the meteoric rise in incarceration rates, but also less-conspicuous shifts in due process and civil liberties, and they do so by attributing more-repressive policies to the emergence of a political culture that has substantially redefined crime and justice. This article focuses on an important due process issue, the legal representation of indigent defendants in criminal courts. We describe the state of indigent defense policy, particularly structure and funding, across the states in 2002, and analyze variation on two dimensions where states may exercise discretion: the extent to which states assume responsibility for funding services (rather than relying on local governments), and the generosity with which these programs are funded overall. We test hypotheses that link funding for services with the ideology of state political leadership, public values about tolerance and race relations, and states' public welfare policy climates. We find little support for the prediction that a welfare climate shapes more progressive indigent defense policies. However, the results suggest that the racial threat hypothesis helps account for spending on indigent defense, and that Republican control of the statehouse results in the perpetuation of local responsibility for program funding. Normative literature on indigent defense suggests that the patterns we observe may have important consequences for the quality of indigent defense services across states. Further, the findings reported here suggest that the politics of the punitive turn, as it has played out across the states, may be responsible not only for shifts in crime control policy, but for due process policy as well.     

Forensic isoscapes based on intra-individual temporal variation of δ18O and 206Pb/207Pb in human teeth

Isotopic signatures used in the georeferencing of human remains are largely fixed by spatially distinct geologic and environmental processes. However, location-dependent temporal changes in these isotope ratios should also be considered when determining an individual’s provenance and/or trajectory. Distributions of the relevant isotopes can be impacted by predictable external factors such as climate change, delocalisation of food and water sources and changes in sources and uses of metals. Using Multi-Collector Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (MC-ICP-MS) analyses of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb in tooth enamel and dentin from a population of 21 ± 1-year-old individuals born circa 1984 and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of δ¹⁸O in their enamel, we examined the expected influence of some of these factors. The resulting adjustments to the geographic distribution of isotope ratios (isoscapes) found in tooth enamel and dentin may contain additional useful information for forensic identification, but the shifts in values can also impact the uncertainty and usefulness of identifications if they are not taken into account.

KEY POINTS

• Isoscapes of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and δ¹⁸O used for geolocation are not static.
• Within a few years, the enamel and dentin of a person may exhibit measurable differences in ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb even without changing locations.
• Changes in climatic patterns tied to rising temperatures are more significant than the direct effect of increasing temperature on δ¹⁸O fixed in tooth bioapatite.
• Third molar (M3) enamel mineralisation includes material incorporated from before formal amelogenesis takes place.

     

Crime,youth gangs,and urban transition: The social dislocations of postindustrial economic development

On the basis of a multivariate analysis of quantitative data from all U.S. cities of 25,000 or more in 1970 and 1980, this paper investigates the impact of recent economic changes and population shifts on the levels of violent and property crime. Further investigation of a subset of cities yields information on the effect of these shifts for the development of youth gangs. The findings illustrate the criminogenic consequences of transition from a manufacturing to a service economy, where changes in technological conditions undermine the comparative locational advantages of cities as industrial centers and worsen economic opportunities for the unskilled urban poor. The results suggest that higher crime rates and more youth gangs are among the unintended consequences of the nation's patterns of postindustrial development.     

Opening the Door for More: Assessing the Impact of Sentencing Reforms on Commitments to Prison Over Time

Since the early 1970s, U.S. states have adopted a series of sentencing reforms that have substantially altered sentencing and release policies by limiting discretion of judges, parole boards, and/or prison administrators. The current study assesses shifts in year-to-year changes in new commitments and parolees returned to prison within all 50 states from the years 1972 to 2008. The study tests the theory that sentencing reforms resulted in increased commitments to prison due to changes in the structures of sentencing and not due to increased crime. Data was analyzed using panel regression with robust standard errors, fixed effects, and conditional change scores. By treating six main sentencing reforms as dynamically interacting, the results suggest that certain combinations of sentencing reforms significantly increase new commitments while the number of parolees returned to prison was not meaningfully affected. The analysis further indicates that the combinations that the reforms appear in at the state-level influence the magnitude of the impacts of reforms.     

INCENTIVES FOR COLLECTIVE DEVIANCE: GROUP SIZE AND CHANGES IN PERCEIVED RISK,COST, AND REWARD*

Research has demonstrated that the presence of others shifts decision‐making about risky/deviant behavior. One reason for this shift could be changes in the anticipated experience of formal sanctions, informal costs, and rewards. To investigate this possibility, this study conducted two randomized controlled trials with hypothetical vignettes, in which a range of how many other people were also involved in the criminal act defined the treatment conditions. Across two samples of university students (Ns = 396 and 263), the results revealed that as the size of the involved group increased, the anticipated experience of sanction risk and several informal social costs associated with engaging in the act decreased, and the anticipated experience of two rewards increased. Additional analyses suggest that, with one exception in each data set, these changes are not only tied to the solo/group distinction.     

The contemporary transformation of american youth: An analysis of change in the prevalence of delinquency, 1991–2015

Youth involvement in crime has declined substantially over the past few decades, yet the reasons for this trend remain unclear. We advance the literature by examining the role of several potentially important shifts in individual attitudes and behaviors that may help to account for the observed temporal variation in youth delinquency. Our multilevel analysis of repeated cross‐sectional data from eighth and tenth grade students in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study indicates that changes in youth offending prevalence were not associated with changes in youth attachment and commitment to school, community involvement, or parental supervision after school. In contrast, the study provides suggestive evidence that the significant reduction in youth offending prevalence observed since the early 1990s was significantly associated with a decrease in unstructured socializing and alcohol consumption and, to a lesser extent, with a decrease in youth preferences for risky activities. Implications for existing theoretical explanations and future research on youth crime trends are discussed.     

DIFFERENTIATING SERIOUS ADOLESCENT OFFENDERS WHO EXIT THE JUSTICE SYSTEM FROM THOSE WHO DO NOT

Numerous factors have been posited to promote desistance from criminal offending in late adolescence and early adulthood. Research in this area has generally examined these factors for their impact on offending for a period shortly after the occurrence or shifts in possible predictors. The current study takes a slightly different approach. It examines the broad relation of life changes and developmental patterns to wholesale shifts in offending behavior. The current study uses data from the Pathways to Desistance study to compare the developmental patterns of two groups of serious adolescent male offenders: those who are “system successes” with no subsequent criminal justice system involvement and a matched sample for a 7‐year period after court involvement for a felony offense. Findings from growth curve analyses indicate that patterns of change in criminal attitudes, psychosocial development, and legal employment over this extended follow‐up period are related to an absence of offending. These results support further investigation of the synergistic effects of psychological changes and entry into the job market as possible mechanisms promoting desistance during this developmental period. The policy and practice implications of these findings are discussed.