South Africa's financial and economic prospects for the next five years

South African dominance of trade in Africa as well as its position as a regional hegemon was entrenched by the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) with the European Union in 1999. South Africa's full-blown integration into the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) formation since 2011 has brought new dynamics, however, as South Africa now has a marked BRICS orientation. Although the European Union (EU) as a bloc is still South Africa's largest trading partner, China has become South Africa's largest single-country trading partner. The question arises as to whether this new found loyalty makes sense in terms of South Africa's regional position and its trade prospects. Against the background of more intra-industry trade with the EU and the new and growing inter-industry trade with the other BRICS economies, South Africa's trade share of African trade has been in relative decline. This study uses an international political economy framework to analyse South African trade hegemony based on the TDCA and the possible effects of a shift towards BRICS. The conclusion is that, although the shift towards BRICS can politically be justified, economically it should not be at the expense of the benefits of the more advantageous relationship with the EU.     

Pakistan,economic change and social scientists

Abstract

The classic works on modern China—by Harold Isaacs, Edgar Snow, Jack Beiden, even Mao Tse-tung himself—have all led us to believe that the revolutionary ferment which surged through China in the twentieth century was the result of rural impoverishment, economic stagnation and governmental weakness and decay. All of them stressed the crucial role of Western and Japanese imperialism which had reduced China to such a sorry state in the first half of the twentieth century.     

South Korea-China economic relations: Trends and prospects

Since the establishment of official diplomatic ties in 1992, bilateral economic relations between Korea and China have rapidly improved. The economic dynamism in China is expected to continue in the future. As continued economic development of China gains momentum, the economic relationship between the two countries will further be strengthened. However, future bilateral economic cooperation will take a path that differs significantly from the past. Both the quantity and quality of economic relations will increase and improve. In particular, Korea’s investment in China, which tends to be concentrated in the manufacturing sector, will broaden out to nonmanufacturing sectors, with the strategic motive of gaining access to China’s huge domestic market. His publications includeNortheast Asian Economic Cooperation: Perspectives and Challenges (KIEP, 1991).     

Asia‐Pacific economic cooperation: Progress and prospects

Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo L. Siazon Jr. of the Philippines discusses the Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's path to the present, and charts a map for its future. Siazon sees the importance of promoting greater private‐sector involvement in APEC and enhancing economic cooperation among member economies. Siazon discusses the special significance of this year's meetings to be held at Subic Bay in the Philippines, the former home of the US Pacific Fleet and now a growing industrial and tourism center. Pursuing APEC's free‐trade goals, he says, holds the brightest economic future for the Philippines and the region.     

Problems of Russian economic reforms and prospects for economic cooperation between the Russian Far East and Northwest pacific countries

This article was originally prepared for a roundtable conference on “Perspectives on Economic Issues in the Northwest Pacific in a Dramatically Changing World,” held February 28–March 1, 1992, in Oiso, Japan. The cosponsors of the conference were Mitsui Marine Research Institute, the Japan Economic Foundation, and The American Council on Asian and Pacific Affairs.     

Authoritarian politics and economic reform in Uzbekistan: past,present and prospects

All the ex-Soviet Central Asian states have super-presidential, authoritarian regimes with poor human rights records. Using the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the article shows that Uzbekistan has sometimes improved, when the economy has been good, and has a mixed record on religious, labor, and language rights. All these states are sensitive to outside pressures if applied tactfully but try to maintain their independence from all outside powers.     

The Evolution of Russia's Pakistan Policy

Moscow's preoccupation in Eastern Europe in the late 1940's, the distorted image it had of Pakistan and its belief that the defeat of Chiang Kai-shek would be followed by the spread of revolution through the Indian sub-continent tended to discourage the Kremlin from establishing cordial relations with Pakistan.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

The East Asian financial meltdown

In view of China's economic growth and rising international status, Latin American and Caribbean countries will accord increasing priority to their relations with the Asian giant. China's permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council is also a factor to reckon with. Today, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Mexico have established strategic partnerships with China. While the vast distance between China and Latin America generates difficulties in transportation and mutual understanding, it also means that both parties have no serious conflicts of strategic and political interests. Their Third World orientations in diplomacy contribute to a 95% concurrence in their votes in the United Nations. While the Chinese leadership seeks to promote multipolarity to curb US unilateralism, it appreciates its limitations in Latin America. In addition, China and the Latin American and Caribbean countries value good relations with the US. In the foreseeable future, China will increase its investment in Latin America and more Sino-Latin American business joint ventures will be formed. These trends may well reduce trade frictions associated with China's economic expansion.     

The great financial crisis and the end of normal

In his book The End of Normal, James K. Galbraith turned to the causes of the Great Financial Crisis beginning in 2007. The central question was if the (supposed) pre-crisis normality of high growth rates could be reestablished – which Galbraith, from the perspective of a “biophysical analytical framework” and with view to the structural problems of high energy prices, geopolitical instability, technological change and the faulty design of the financial system, doubted. In the present paper, Galbraith reconsiders his central theses and explains why he holds on to them in spite of recent economic recovery and other developments like falling oil prices, and what, from his point of view, speaks against a return to a “new normal.” In addition, he discusses what political implications follow from his diagnosis. Klaus Dörre introduces Galbraith’s approach and underlines its relevance for the thematic context of capitalism, growth and democracy. For Dörre, Galbraith shows that “post-growth capitalisms” have, at least in the societies of the Global North, long become a reality – which is why it makes little sense to reserve the concept of “post-growth society” for utopic visions of the future, yet all the more to engage with Galbraith’s call for policies suited to an economy of slow growth.     

The world economic pattern in the 1990s and Asia-Pacific economic cooperation

The world economic pattern of the 1990s will have many characteristics. For example: 1) the world economy will tend to move further toward multipolarization and several fairly large regional economic blocs will be formed with these polars as their center; 2) the United States, Japan, and Europe will play a dominant role in the new world economic pattern; and 3) the Asia-Pacific economies will be the most vigorous part of the world economy. Since the 1980s, with the development of the internationalization of the world economy and regional integration, Asia-Pacific economic cooperation has entered into a new period. However, it is very difficult to form a close entity of economic cooperation (such as the EC) including the whole Asia-Pacific region. Perhaps it is more practical to found a subregional economic cooperative body, such as a “Northeast Asian economic sphere,” in the near future. This article was originally prepared for a roundtable conference on “Economic Issues in the Northwest Pacific: Perspectives in a Dramatically Changing World,” held December 14–16, 1990, in Oiso, Japan. The cosponsors of the conference were Taisho Research Institute, the Japan Economic Foundation, and The American Council on Asian and Pacific Affairs.