Russia's Policy Towards OPEC

Russia and OPEC are major oil producers. Considering the growing energy demand for the global economy, both parties are consistently increasing their exports of hydrocarbons and developing new supply capacities. Meanwhile, both parties have a mutual interest in creating a stable market by cooperating. However, the likelihood of Russian cooperation with OPEC is largely a function of oil prices and the political relations between Russia and OPEC countries. The following article deals with the relations between Russia and OPEC since the collapse of the USSR to the economic crisis in 2008. The author examines the political, cultural and economic conflicts between the two parties and their different attitudes toward the oil market in order to assess their chance to fully cooperate in the long term.     

Coping with energy insecurity: China’s response in global perspective

Already the world’s second largest energy consumer, China has accounted for more than a third of the increase in global oil demand since 2000. Due to infrastructural bottlenecks as well as supply shortages, intensified by sustained growth, the PRC is likely to become an increasingly important factor in global oil and gas markets, and to pursue an increasingly active energy diplomacy. Reducing energy vulnerability will be a key imperative. The PRC is striving to reduce its energy vulnerability by: (1) promoting energy efficiency; (2) diversifying away from its heavy reliance on coal and oil, toward nuclear power and natural gas; (3) improving domestic energy infrastructure; (4) promoting national energy champions; (5) deepening reliance on congenial nations; and (6) reducing reliance on sea lanes dominated by the U.S. Navy. Kazakhstan, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Australia, and African energy producers are special priority targets of its energy diplomacy, which is likely to become more salient in China's overall foreign policy in coming years.     

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

Peak Oil as a stimulus for a green economy transition in South Africa: Alternative liquid fuel and transport options

Abstract

While the arguments in favour of a green economy often rest on the need to reduce environmental damage, mitigate climate change and create environmentally friendly jobs, this article argues that the inevitable and possibly imminent peak and decline in world oil production provides another strong rationale for green economy policies and investments in South Africa. The South African economy has a high degree of reliance on imported petroleum fuels and evidence suggests that oil price and supply shocks – resulting from diminishing world oil exports and a decline in the energy return on investment for oil globally – are likely to have a debilitating socioeconomic impact under business-as-usual policies and behaviour patterns. Two broad strategies for mitigating the impact of increasing world oil scarcity and oil price shocks are considered. The first evaluates the prospects for developing indigenous sources of liquid fuels, including coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and biofuels, and finds that there are significant resource and environmental risks associated with these options. The second strategy involves short-term measures to reduce demand for liquid transport fuels together with a long-term shift toward electrified mass transport, supported by accelerated investments in renewable energy. The latter strategy is argued to be compatible with and necessary for a societal transition towards a green economy.     

China and the Worldwide Search for Oil Security

The notion of oil security on a global scale is problematic because of the diverging perspectives with which oil-importing countries and oil-exporting countries view energy security. Oil-importing countries are interested in “oil supply” while oil-exporting countries focus on “oil demand.” This leaves ample space for major powers to maneuver within the complex political-economic dynamics associated with oil trade. China has been no exception.

This commentary addresses the international debate that has emerged concerning the geo-strategic and geo-economic motivations behind China's pursuit of offshore oil supply. By examining China's oil-related overseas investments in Sudan we shed light on some of the business and political complexities associated with the China-Sudan relationship. In the view of many Chinese observers, Sudan has in terms of oil exploration been a Chinese success story while in the view of many foreign observers, China's dealings in Sudan are the very reason why China has faced harsh international criticism of its overseas oil operations.

Instead of debating whether or not China has the right, just as all oil-importing countries do, to pursue its own route to oil security we encourage oil-importing countries to re-examine the existing mechanisms of oil trade. It is in the interest of China as well as the established economies to collaborate in shaping a new global structure for oil trade.     

Russia's oil and gas export to Northeast Asia

Russia has been deprived of the chance of becoming a major oil and gas supply source for the Northeast Asian region due to the combination of several factors, in particular by the absence of pipeline infrastructure in the area. Moscow made its first significant decision to construct an energy transportation infrastructure development by 2008, even though it is only the first stage of the 4,000 km long distance pipeline. If the development is made as planned, the Northeast Asian region is set to witness a massive crude oil flow from East Siberia and a sizable LNG export from the Sakhalin Islands before the end of this decade. The Moscow authority is supposed to make a final decision on the long distance natural gas pipeline before the end of 2005. If timing of the supply of pipeline gas to Bohai Bay areas is missed and consequently a massive LNG supply is arranged for North China, a significant delay of pipeline gas introduction to the Northeast Asian region will be inevitable and the price may have to be borne by the region's LNG consumers.     

Russia’s energy relations in Southeastern Europe: an analysis of motives in Bulgaria and Greece

Although officially Russian state-owned energy companies operate as independent entities, their actions often lead to suspicion that they are acting as a tool of Russian state foreign policy. Countries on the southeastern borders of Europe – Bulgaria and Greece – are prime examples of where this might be the case, since they not only have a central position in Russia’s plans to penetrate European markets through new transport infrastructure but are also part of competing plans for routing non-Russian gas to Western markets. The main focus of the present research is on the natural gas and oil sectors, as these are the traditional foundation of Russian energy exports to Europe. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an objective, evidence-based analysis of Russian activities in the natural gas and oil sectors of Greece and Bulgaria in order to establish whether its actions have been implicitly or explicitly politicized and have served to strengthen Russian influence in the region.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

Japanese Energy Security Revisited

Facing the surge of “resource nationalism” in energy-producing countries and the rapid growth of energy demand in China and India, the Japanese government has decided to play an active role in securing its energy import, which decision seems to have received the solid support of the people. Effective support by the government to business, needless to say, is welcomed. However, experience teaches that excessive intervention in energy procurement by non-business sectors would do no good and a lot of harm for Japan's stable energy supply in the future. Furthermore, foreseeing a future energy balance in Japan, the country should refrain from engaging in the so-called “scramble for energy” occurring globally. This paper sets out in detail the argument that it is in Japan's best interests to eliminate to as great an extent as possible any political dimension from an energy product such as oil in order to reduce its importance as a strategic commodity and strengthen its characteristics as a market commodity.     

New Constellations of Social Power: States and Transnational Private Governance of Palm Oil Sustainability in Southeast Asia

ABSTRACT

This article considers whether private sustainability standards can lead to lasting change in corporate and state agricultural practices implicated in the environmental damage and social conflicts caused by oil palm cultivation in Indonesia and Malaysia by examining in detail the social processes through which non-state actors engage in governance. Sceptics of private regulation point to the powerful state–business patronage networks in these countries as structural impediments to reforming this sector. Drawing on the literature on global production networks, I show how producers deeply embedded within such supportive local political economies nevertheless choose to comply with stringent global private standards to reduce risks to their global operations. It was the renewed emphasis on supply chain “traceability” to demonstrate responsible corporate behaviour to investors, buyers and consumers that served to embed globally-oriented palm oil plantation firms and their upstream suppliers into emerging ethical supply chains. Embedding occurs through three social processes – surveillance, normalising judgement and knowledge transfer. The private regulatory developments analysed in this article, though relatively recent, are supported by a diverse transnational coalition of principled and instrumental interests and have created significant openings for a new, or at least, parallel, and more progressive, private regulatory order in Malaysia and Indonesia.     

Oil pollution and water conflicts in the riverine communities in Nigeria’s Niger Delta region: challenges for and elements of problem-solving strategies

ABSTRACT

In Nigeria’s Niger Delta, oil pollution has significantly harmed the natural environment on which the local people in the Niger Delta depend for their livelihood and sustenance. The direct consequence of oil pollution is that it has led to multidimensional and protracted conflicts in oil-bearing communities. Drawing on fieldwork data, this article examines the ways in which oil pollution harms water resources and fuels conflicts in the local communities. It explores the socio-economic dynamics of the conflicts and insecurity, and how they are aggravated by the ineffectiveness of the measures adopted by the state to manage the conflicts. It argues that the role of local actors in the ecological dislocation have been downplayed and not factored into the measures devised to tackle the intractable conflicts. This article demonstrates how the network of interactions among localised, national and globalised actors aggravate environmental pollution and the complex conflicts in local communities.     

哈萨克斯坦石油精英及其对能源政策的影响

哈萨克斯坦是一个经济结构严重受制于能源经济和依靠石油寻租的油气生产国。国有大型油气公司的高级主管对该国的能源政策具有举足轻重的作用。石油精英通过与政治精英建立非正式的关系网络,不仅影响本国能源部门的发展,而且还介入政治决策和政治制度。而哈萨克斯坦普遍存在着制度的不透明性、法律的不确定性和总统决定的随意性,助长并养成了非正式政治体制的固化,加强了威权主义的趋势,并进一步鼓励寻租和腐败行为的延续。     

Energy in Northeast Asia: Resources for Conflict or Cooperation? An Introduction

Although Northeast Asia typically is seen as an arena for conflict over energy supplies, complementary economic relationships would seem to make the region ripe for energy cooperation: Russia possesses major oil and gas resources, while China, Japan, South and North Korea all depend on imported energy. The four papers in this issue raise a number of important and, at times, neglected issues about the prospects for energy cooperation in Northeast Asia. While focusing on specific projects for energy supply and conservation, the authors implicitly raise broader theoretical questions about the prospects for and consequences of regional energy cooperation.

Oil and intra-state conflict in Iraq and Syria: sub-state actors and challenges for Turkey's energy security

The continuing dependency on fossil fuels of the Middle East not only in Turkey's energy mix but also in world energy demand requires further analysis of oil and conflict in the region since the fall of Mosul in Iraq to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in June 2014. This article addresses the relationship between oil and conflict. Then, it examines the case of Turkey's increasing energy relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government to elucidate the implications of inter-state and intra-state conflict on regional interdependence in the region. The argument asserts that risks of an abrupt regime change or revolutionary regime formation in the aftermath of civil war in Syria and ethnic or sectarian violence in Iraq, which are highly associated with intra-state conflicts, present challenges for Turkey's energy security and most importantly for human security in the region.     

Russia's Energy Future and Northeast Asia1

Since about 2000, Russia became increasingly interested in a swift expansion of its oil and gas industry to the eastern regions, aiming primarily at the domestic development needs and new markets of Northeast Asia. Eastern Siberia and the Far Eastern areas contain up to 50 percent of Russia's estimated oil reserves. In this context, the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline is attracting attention as a mega-project important not only for Russia, but also for its neighbors. This pipeline will facilitate the development of new oil fields in the remote eastern areas. There are also plans to build oil refineries connected to the pipeline, including the one planned on the Pacific coast. Indeed, Russia needs an access to the neighboring markets not only in the field of oil, but also natural gas and electricity. In this regard, long-term shared interests should drive new energy projects, and governments could greatly facilitate business interaction. Moreover, specific measures dealing with the long-term energy policies are required at the national, bilateral and regional levels, including practical and project specific initiatives tailored to the needs of the economies of Northeast Asia, considering their large markets, geography, technological potential and an interest in building institutions.     

Energy Security and Germany's Response to Russian Revisionism: The Dangers of Civilian Power

This article examines the impact of German dependence on Russian gas supplies for Europe's ability to apply effective sanctions against Russia. It demonstrates that by focusing on the environmental dimensions of energy policy and a policy of rapprochement with Russia, Germany has neglected the security of supply implications of its dependence on Russian gas. The article argues that Germany's excessive energy dependence on Russia has limited the ability of the EU to challenge Russian revisionism by targeting its energy sector through sanctions. The article makes a number of energy policy recommendations which will be essential for Germany to avoid undue Russian influence on its foreign and security policies. The article concludes by exploring the utility of Neoclassical Realism in understanding Germany's approach to energy security. In doing so it highlights the dangers of allowing ideology to cloud a sober assessment of the imperatives of the balance of theat.     

浅析中国与东盟的能源合作

能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的基本要素之一。随着中国经济的快速增长,中国对外能源需求量逐年增长,能源安全成了人们普遍关注的一个全球性的热点问题。因此,中国应通过积极参与双边与多边的能源合作,采取多元化的油气资源供给途径,来保障中国的油气资源的安全供给。随着东盟与中国政治经济关系的升温,东盟各国在中国的能源安全领域扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文在对中国能源现状进行分析的基础上,对中国与东盟开展能源合作这一议题进行剖析,浅析其合作的必要性、可行性及其前景。     

What price access to the open seas? The geopolitics of oil and gas transmission from the Trans-Caspian republics

In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union was the world's largest hydrocarbon producer. The landmass over which these resources are distributed is vast and the reserves mostly landlocked. To convey these hydrocarbons to refineries and to market, the Soviets constructed the largest integrated pipeline networks in the world. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, new competing national interests have produced tensions over these energy resources and transmission corridors, with economically detrimental and often irrational consequences. In Central Asia, the post-Soviet Republics of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan produce significant amounts of hydrocarbons and export their oil and gas to or through Russian Federation territory. Russian government policy aims to continue exercising political control over these resources and to maximize Moscow's share of profits from their export. This paper examines oil and gas transmission issues in Central Asia, against a backdrop of emerging new relationships between the Russian Federation and the three post-Soviet republics, the resurgent strategic competition between Russia and the United States, China's developing power base in the region and Iran's potentially key geographic position for channelling Caspian energy supplies towards the Persian Gulf.     

战后初期日本解决能源供应危机的政策设计

煤炭、石油、电力等能源的供应危机是战后日本经济复兴中最大的“瓶颈约束”。日本为确保经济发展所需的能源动力,选择了具有“国家管制”和“行政计划”特征的能源配置框架;确立了优先加强能源“量”的增产和供应而非“利润”和“效益”的政策目标;运用了行政约束、法律强制、精神动员等多元化的政策工具。日本舒缓和规避能源“瓶颈约束”的政策构想源于统制经济思想。     

Oil Funds: Perils and Opportunities

Soaring oil prices since the early 2000s has led to a historic transformation of wealth from consuming regions to major oil exporters. In recent years many of these exporters have set up oil funds to utilize their massive and growing oil revenues. These funds are divided into two categories – stabilization and saving funds. Their large investments in Western markets have raised concern that they might be driven by political and strategic interests rather than commercial concerns. This study examines oil funds in the Persian Gulf. It discusses US and European proposals to regulate oil fund investments and argue against excessive regulation.