苏联末期的货币战——透视苏联解体的新视角

苏联末期,在卢布贬值的未来预期下,各加盟共和国展开激烈的银行信贷竞争,同时实行了限制卢布涌入、物资流出的经济封锁。进而,面对俄联邦汹涌而至的卢布潮水,发行主权货币成为小国寡民型共和国防止卢布占领、摆脱自身经济困境的良策。而某个加盟共和国的主权货币行动必然在整个苏联内部引发多米诺骨牌效应。统一的卢布流通域遭遇被15个彼此独立的货币流通域瓜分并取代的命运,作为主权国家的苏联也就在货币层面被摧毁。考察苏联末期的货币战是探寻苏联解体过程的一条重要线索,对于揭开苏联解体之谜具有一定的启示意义。     

The Soviet Union and the International Trade Regime: A Reply

An international economist and United Nations executive replies to a critique of his paper devoted to the anticipated Soviet participation in the GATT. The author's rebuttal is focused on his opponent's perception of the GATT as an exclusive club and the suggestion that Soviet membership would be costly to the West. Several new arguments are marshaled to substantiate the initial premise that planned economies attempting to reform should be incorporated in the international trade regime. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

The Soviet Union and the GATT: A Framework for Western Policy

An American economist, editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics, questions the desirability of Soviet membership in the GATT. Viewed from the framework of the theory of clubs, the Soviet Union is not a desirable member. This is partly because it does not seek the same level of liberalization of world trade as do other members and partly because it is not able to contribute effectively to the liberalization of the international trading system. A critical evaluation of an opposing view leads to conclusions that Soviet membership in the GATT would be costly to members and yield few tangible benefits. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

Turkish transformation and the Soviet Union: navigating through the Soviet historiography on Kemalism

Being founded in the wake of the First World War, both Turkey and the Soviet Union followed revolutionary modernizing pathways. At the outset, one could trace many similar patterns in their radical modernization paradigms; however, their development models as well as political and social orders were radically distinct, which became more obvious with the passage of time. The paper discusses the external interpretations of Kemalism by observing the Soviet perspectives on the inception and evolution of Kemalism. Paying more attention to diplomatic, geopolitical and economic complexities of the Turkish-Soviet relations, scholars have rarely problematized the Soviet Union perceptions of Turkish ideological transformations. In reality, since the early 1920s, different state institutions, intellectual schools of thought and research in the Soviet Union closely observed the domestic transformations in Turkey by providing valuable insights on the perspective and the implications of the Kemalist transformation. The article also looks at the question of how the incorporation of Soviet perspectives can enrich the historiography and our understanding of Kemalism.     

苏维埃制度崩溃原因的初步分析

苏联解体的轻率和突然令人震惊,但官方的苏联历史是神化的.并非国有制过度这种所谓的恶疾导致了苏维埃体制的崩溃.苏联经济落后及其被军备竞赛所耗尽只是意识形态的神话.石油价格波动同样未在苏联解体过程中发挥重要作用.后苏联时期俄罗斯相当长时期内的危机,不是从苏联延续下来,而是在拆解苏联时形成的.只有极少数公民有意识地否定苏维埃制度的主要基础.厘清苏联解体的原因,需要我们应打破教条和陈词滥调以及意识形态语言的藩篱.应区分苏维埃构想和其在实践中的具体表现--苏维埃制度.苏维埃构想并没有消灭自己,也没有退化或自我毁灭,而只是在成长中出现了疾病,其一系列制度无法适应苏联社会和苏联人发展的新形势.苏联体系的主要特点,或者说斯大林主义,是在 1905-1917年革命、内战、20 世纪 20 年代的新经济政策、30 年代的集体化和工业化、卫国战争期间形成的.当时的环境导致苏共在具体的制度设计上选择的范围很小,只能基于现实的威胁、资源潜力和历史上造就的具有惯性的文化环境.二战结束后,苏联的领导层未能妥善解决摆脱斯大林主义,摆脱动员发展状态这样的复杂问题,进而导致了一系列的政治危机并由于冷战而深化其严重性.苏联既是被冷战的对手所扼杀,更死于自己的双手.苏联合法性的危机酝酿了 30年才成熟.苏维埃制度早期的合法性源自对群众对社会苦难的记忆.伴随着城市化的发展,至 20世纪 60-70年代,苏联社会从根本上发生了改变.但城市化给对苏维埃的不满制造了客观的前提条件.一种隐性的危险日益增大,即以前的苏维埃制度的思想基础迅速急剧地衰弱乃至消失.苏联短期内有两代感觉自己毫无生活保障的年轻人被改革、公开性、集会以及文化多元论弄得神魂颠倒.精英阶层的反苏部分的行动利用了这种世界观危机并使之加剧.而新一代领导人既无法迅速揭示也无法预防社会上已经出现的矛盾,而且无法找到有效的方法解决成熟的问题.党的高层与苏联社会现实的脱离令人震惊,他们自以为掌控着国内进程,但实际上底层的干部掌握着形势.这使得戈尔巴乔夫日益激进的改革导致雪崩式的后果.从这一意义上讲,苏联的解体是文明和世界观危机的结果.其实质在于,苏联社会与国家没能胜任在代际更替的过程中更新社会制度合法性手段的任务;无法保障文化历史类型嬗变的延续性,这种递嬗发生在现代化和城市化过程中并和整个社会走出20世纪20至50年代的动员型发展状态的危机相吻合.     

Soviet Union and the Third World: The Economic Dimension

This paper surveys some of the outstanding issues and changes in the economic dimension of Soviet involvement in the non-communist Third World over the last 30 years. It attempts to identify and integrate salient features of current knowledge about Soviet economic policy toward the less developed countries. After a survey of the evolution of Soviet arms transfers and economic aid and trade relations, the paper concludes with some reflections on the effectiveness of Soviet policy and prospects for future change. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 420.     

Changes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union: The effects on China

The rapidly changing political, economic, and security policies in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in late 1989 and 1990 have added to the complications faced by Chinese leaders since they decided to suppress the unprecedented large-scale pro-democracy demonstrations in Chinese cities in spring 1989. These changes had an obvious “ripple effect” in China, encouraging prodemocracy forces and alarming Chinese leaders. They attracted strong positive attention from the developed countries of the West and Japan, and international financial institutions and businesses. This came at the indirect expense of China. And they accelerated changes in world politics (especially in U.S.-Soviet relations) and in the politics of government decision making in the West that promised to reduce China’s relative influence in world affairs in the 1990s. The prospect of reduced influence abroad and curbed economic contacts did not appear to be sufficient cause for Beijing leaders to markedly change existing policies. Chinese leaders in mid-1990 appeared focused on issues of internal political power at a time of leadership transition. Significant changes in policy appeared most likely to await leadership changes as Deng Xiaoping and other aged leaders die or are incapacitated.     

Approaches to the Politics of Systemic Economic Reform in the Soviet Union

Political support for economic reform in the USSR is evaluated at five different levels of Soviet society, or more properly, of the political-administrative hierarchy: the top leader (Gorbachev himself), the collective leadership (Politburo), the bureaucracy, knowledge specialists (intelligentsia), and the population at large. Attitudes and motivations within each group are examined in order to demonstrate how interest group relations in the Soviet Union have made and will continue to make basic economic change a protracted, complex, and unpredictable process. journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 113.     

苏联外交和第二次世界大战

为遏制法西斯德国的侵略扩张,苏联自1933年起便通过“东方公约”、莫斯科谈判试图同英法建立集体安全体系,但未获成功。此后,为避免提前卷入战争,苏联与德国签订《互不侵犯条约》,后又同日本签订《中立条约》。二战期间,苏联通过与英美结盟,保障了自身战后在波兰、德国和远东的利益。苏联的外交政策目标明确,在二战的动乱年代,成功地维护了国家的民族利益。     

从政党政治的缺陷看苏共必然灭亡

政党政治是人类有史以来民主政治的高级形式,是现代民主政治的典型形式,是人类政治文明的积极成果。政党政治首先形成于现代资本主义社会。最先发展资本主义商品市场经济的国家,如英、法、美等国,新兴资产阶级是在夺取政权后的议会斗争中才组成政党,经由多党竞争,选民投票,实现政党轮流执政或联合执政。后发资本主义国家,如德、意、俄等国以及广大被压迫民族国家,则是先组成各类政党,由政党领导或推进革命斗争,到斗争胜利后才形成完全的政党政治。政党政治依据长期     

俄罗斯与南非关系的历史考察——以苏联与非国大关系为视角

俄罗斯与南非关系可以追溯到上世纪60年代初发轫的苏联与南非非洲人国民大会的关系。在将近30年的时间里,苏联向非国大提供了重要的道义和物质上的援助,尤其是武器装备的援助。80年代中期开始,苏联与非国大关系出现新的变化,苏联的同盟军战略和非国大的多元化战略产生了良性的互动,为南非的民主改革创造了较适宜的环境,但对苏联在新南非创建中的作用不宜高估。事实上,苏联与非国大的关系在80年代末趋冷,直接影响到此后的俄南关系。