苏联末期的货币战——透视苏联解体的新视角

苏联末期,在卢布贬值的未来预期下,各加盟共和国展开激烈的银行信贷竞争,同时实行了限制卢布涌入、物资流出的经济封锁。进而,面对俄联邦汹涌而至的卢布潮水,发行主权货币成为小国寡民型共和国防止卢布占领、摆脱自身经济困境的良策。而某个加盟共和国的主权货币行动必然在整个苏联内部引发多米诺骨牌效应。统一的卢布流通域遭遇被15个彼此独立的货币流通域瓜分并取代的命运,作为主权国家的苏联也就在货币层面被摧毁。考察苏联末期的货币战是探寻苏联解体过程的一条重要线索,对于揭开苏联解体之谜具有一定的启示意义。     

The Soviet Union and the International Trade Regime: A Reply

An international economist and United Nations executive replies to a critique of his paper devoted to the anticipated Soviet participation in the GATT. The author's rebuttal is focused on his opponent's perception of the GATT as an exclusive club and the suggestion that Soviet membership would be costly to the West. Several new arguments are marshaled to substantiate the initial premise that planned economies attempting to reform should be incorporated in the international trade regime. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

The Soviet Union and the GATT: A Framework for Western Policy

An American economist, editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics, questions the desirability of Soviet membership in the GATT. Viewed from the framework of the theory of clubs, the Soviet Union is not a desirable member. This is partly because it does not seek the same level of liberalization of world trade as do other members and partly because it is not able to contribute effectively to the liberalization of the international trading system. A critical evaluation of an opposing view leads to conclusions that Soviet membership in the GATT would be costly to members and yield few tangible benefits. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

Soviet Union and the Third World: The Economic Dimension

This paper surveys some of the outstanding issues and changes in the economic dimension of Soviet involvement in the non-communist Third World over the last 30 years. It attempts to identify and integrate salient features of current knowledge about Soviet economic policy toward the less developed countries. After a survey of the evolution of Soviet arms transfers and economic aid and trade relations, the paper concludes with some reflections on the effectiveness of Soviet policy and prospects for future change. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 420.     

Changes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union: The effects on China

The rapidly changing political, economic, and security policies in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in late 1989 and 1990 have added to the complications faced by Chinese leaders since they decided to suppress the unprecedented large-scale pro-democracy demonstrations in Chinese cities in spring 1989. These changes had an obvious “ripple effect” in China, encouraging prodemocracy forces and alarming Chinese leaders. They attracted strong positive attention from the developed countries of the West and Japan, and international financial institutions and businesses. This came at the indirect expense of China. And they accelerated changes in world politics (especially in U.S.-Soviet relations) and in the politics of government decision making in the West that promised to reduce China’s relative influence in world affairs in the 1990s. The prospect of reduced influence abroad and curbed economic contacts did not appear to be sufficient cause for Beijing leaders to markedly change existing policies. Chinese leaders in mid-1990 appeared focused on issues of internal political power at a time of leadership transition. Significant changes in policy appeared most likely to await leadership changes as Deng Xiaoping and other aged leaders die or are incapacitated.     

Approaches to the Politics of Systemic Economic Reform in the Soviet Union

Political support for economic reform in the USSR is evaluated at five different levels of Soviet society, or more properly, of the political-administrative hierarchy: the top leader (Gorbachev himself), the collective leadership (Politburo), the bureaucracy, knowledge specialists (intelligentsia), and the population at large. Attitudes and motivations within each group are examined in order to demonstrate how interest group relations in the Soviet Union have made and will continue to make basic economic change a protracted, complex, and unpredictable process. journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 113.     

从苏维埃人到新俄罗斯人--俄罗斯转型期间的人文思想沉积

近十年来,在俄罗斯的社会转型中,出现了一个从苏维埃人到新俄罗斯人的悄然变化的过程.现今的俄罗斯人生活在一个已经没有了苏维埃外形的时代,可内心仍未摆脱苏维埃人文思想的影响,当前牵制和掣肘俄罗斯社会发展的一个关键因素便是这沉积不去的苏维埃人文思想.     

俄罗斯与南非关系的历史考察——以苏联与非国大关系为视角

俄罗斯与南非关系可以追溯到上世纪60年代初发轫的苏联与南非非洲人国民大会的关系.在将近30年的时间里,苏联向非国大提供了重要的道义和物质上的援助,尤其是武器装备的援助.80年代中期开始,苏联与非国大关系出现新的变化,苏联的同盟军战略和非国大的多元化战略产生了良性的互动,为南非的民主改革创造了较适宜的环境,但对苏联在新南非创建中的作用不宜高估.事实上,苏联与非国大的关系在80年代末趋冷,直接影响到此后的俄南关系.     

从政党政治的缺陷看苏共必然灭亡

政党政治是人类有史以来民主政治的高级形式,是现代民主政治的典型形式,是人类政治文明的积极成果。政党政治首先形成于现代资本主义社会。最先发展资本主义商品市场经济的国家,如英、法、美等国,新兴资产阶级是在夺取政权后的议会斗争中才组成政党,经由多党竞争,选民投票,实现政党轮流执政或联合执政。后发资本主义国家,如德、意、俄等国以及广大被压迫民族国家,则是先组成各类政党,由政党领导或推进革命斗争,到斗争胜利后才形成完全的政党政治。政党政治依据长期     

苏联解体原因再探

苏联解体的原因是综合性的和多方面的。本文对四个方面的因素进行了探讨和论述。一,制度性因素:它是苏联解体的根本原因。二,领导人因素:他们发起的改革瓦解了现存的制度并开启了苏联解体的闸门。三,民族问题因素:毁灭联盟的火药桶。四,阿富汗战争因素:解体的重要外部原因之一。     

农民出身和苏联改革--读戈尔巴乔夫与池田大作对话录:《20世纪的精神教训》

不久前过去的20世纪给世界人民带来了什么?它在上半个世纪带来两次世界大屠杀,接着又带来了长达半个世纪的冷战.就日本而言,它发动了几乎遍及整个亚洲的侵略战争,给亚洲人民带来深重的苦难.就俄国而言,一个世纪经历了三次革命,有过胜利的辉煌,也有过滥用革命成果给俄国人民造成深重苦难的斯大林独裁时期,最后又不得不吞下联盟国家解体的苦果.俄国人民在这100年时间里,经历了两次惨绝人寰的世界大战,他们通过革命退出了第一次世界大战,但逃不了希特勒发动的侵略,经受了悲壮的卫国战争.仅仅这几件大事,就足以让人们去思考这20世纪给人类留下的教训了.