China and Northeast Asian regional security cooperation

Northeast Asia is a particularly complex area in the world, especially in terms of security. China advocates a new concept of security based on equality, mutual benefits, consultation and cooperation. China is making great efforts to reduce regional hot issues and lower regional tensions under the conditions that a regional security framework has not been completely established. In recent years, China has actively participated in regional security cooperation and promoted the construction of a security institution. The Six-Party Talks are of great significance not only for resolving the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula, but also for forming a relatively formal framework of security organization. Among the various East Asian security cooperative relationships, that of China–Japan–Korea is critical with regard to East Asian stability. At the same time, however, China should face and deal with some problems concerning the promotion of Northeast Asian security cooperation such as how to regard the presence of US–Japan and US–Korean military alliance, let Korea play the dominating role in Northeast Asian security cooperation and eliminate the Cold War mentality.     

20世纪初韩国的和平思想——日本的“东洋和平论”批判和韩中日间合作的探索

20世纪初期,在日本帝国主义进行侵略和扩张的过程中,伊藤博文政府为了建立"东洋和平"和西方势力抗衡,主张在韩中日之间开展合作。但事实上这种主张不过是把当时以日本为中心的东北亚地区秩序合法化的说辞。针对这一点,安重根、安昌浩、申采浩等韩国独立运动家指出国家正处于丧失国权的危机之中,在对日本主张的"东洋和平"进行批判的同时,强调只有在韩国等周边国家的独立得到保障的情况下才有可能实现真正意义上的"东洋和平"。1910年日本帝国主义强行合并韩国以后,申采浩、朴殷植等韩国独立运动家在指出日本合并韩国的非法性的同时,还强调韩中日等东北亚地区国家间建立在信任基础上的交流和合作的重要性,主张韩国的独立有利于"东洋和平与世界和平"。尤其值得一提的是,柳麟锡在强调韩中关系在东北亚的重要性及中国作用的同时,还提出了韩中日三国在相互信任的基础上朝着共生关系发展的构想。     

Be Careful What You Wish For: Security Challenges Facing the Korean Peninsula During a Potential Unification Process

There is a lacuna in the literature analyzing the mid-term (6-24 months) period after a DPRK contingency that results in the Pyongyang regime’s relatively sudden and unmanaged fall. This article helps fill that gap, particularly with respect to security issues that would challenge Korean unification efforts during such a period. Following an Introduction, Section I first makes the case for a DPRK contingency being the most plausible end to the Pyongyang regime. Assuming the scenarios from Section I, Section II addresses the question of what critical issues a unifying Korea will face over the mid-term, and how dealing with these challenges will condition the type of end-state that a unified Korea will embody. In particular we examine three challenges: (a) mid-term security provision related to potential weapons proliferation, cyber-security, organized criminality, and human security; (b) the foundations of institution-building through measures dealing with issues of transitional justice, disputed land title claims, and generating broad domestic stakeholder buy-in in a unifying Korea; (c) the disposition of Korea’s strategic alignment in a Northeast Asia that will have undergone a major alteration of the regional system. Section III concludes with policy recommendations concerning what efforts should be made now to prepare for the situations described in Sections I and II.     

Energy cooperation problems in Northeast Asia: Unfolding the reality

It is a truism that Northeast Asian states could benefit very much if they were to cooperate in the energy security realm. However, to many, especially economists, their behaviour to this common sense solution has been bewildering: there has been simply no progress towards this end and it still remains a puzzle, even to many energy specialists. This article attempts to answer a simple question: Why do the Northeast Asian states, namely China, Japan, Korea, and Russia, not cooperate? For its analysis, the author of the article relies on content analysis of recently released official governmental long-term energy policy and strategy documents of these states, and notes that cooperation for energy security reasons at the regional level is conspicuously absent, which possibly implies a lack of desire and willingness to do so amongst themselves. The article, however, deliberately omits from its study Korea, simply because no such long-term energy policy exists today. It attributes the major cause to the strong propensity by energy specialists to interchangeably use the concepts of ‘energy cooperation’ and ‘energy security’ in their analysis.     

Downsizing Hegemony: Alliance,Domestic Politics,and American Retrenchment in East Asia, 1969–2017

By investigating the domestic debate over the US troop reduction in Japan and South Korea for the past several decades, this article explores variation in the Asian allies’ reactions to American retrenchment. Instead of inferring regional responses solely from external security environments, this paper pays particular attention to domestic political contexts in which different political actors compete to frame the meanings and consequences of the US military presence, with implications for alliance dynamics in East Asia. I argue that along with the perceived levels of external threats, considerations of foreign policy autonomy and political legitimacy shape the ways in which the two Asian allies have responded to the US retrenchment.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

Preparing for the best: involving North Korea in the new pacific community

The United States, Japan, and South Korea should be considering ways and means to involve North Korea in regional cooperation. In the economic sector, the United States and South Korea might support the Northeast Asia Economic Forum and the Tumen River Area Development Project. The United States might also encourage Japan or South Korea to lead discussions on the possibilities of an Association of Northeast Asian Provinces, a Northeast Asian Development Bank, a regional labor market, and forums on regional transportation and communication, shipping and navigation, and air traffic management. All should support North Korea’s joining the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. The need to monitor or retrieve the dumped Russian nuclear submarine reactors in North Korean waters is a serendipitous opportunity for broaching multilateral environmental cooperation.     

东北亚“核威慑效应弱化”及其应对思考

东北亚地区呈现的"核威慑效应弱化",对地区安全构成消极影响。东北亚以及美国的核威慑投入在持续,美对韩日核保护,韩日谈论核武器,朝鲜发展核武器,同时萨德部署与《中导条约》失效降低了中俄的核威慑能力,核传统的遏止功能、保护能力与可信性降低,核扩散趋势增强,核威慑悖论现象显现。"核安全保护不完全"、核拥有国数量增加,是探讨"核威慑效应弱化"成因的有益路径。建立新时代的核理论,揭示并审慎研究核武器化与民用化并存风险,建立核民用合作机制并推进建立涵盖核的武器与民用的合作机制,以核问题的处理为契机在国家层面上构建东北亚命运共同体,以及在地方与个人层面推进核文化教育与核防护演练合作,都是应对"核威慑效应弱化"的有益思考。     

The political economy of economic regionalism in northeast asia: A unique and dynamic pattern

Since the mid-1980s there has been a gradual but steady rise of economic regionalism in Northeast Asia. However, the economic regionalism in Northeast Asia reveals its own dynamics and is presented in a form that is different from those in Western Europe and North America. Characterized by a “flying geese pattern” that has been developing in the region over time, the regionalism is soft and open; that is, it is uninstitutionalized and less discriminatory against other economies. This ongoing regionalism in Northeast Asia will inevitably bring profound political and economic implications for the region and beyond. Kevin G. Cai earned a Ph.D. in political science at Queen's University in Canada in 1996 Currently he is teaching at Kyonggi University in South Korea. His major research interests include the political economy of economic regionalism in the world economy, the regionalism in the Asia-Pacific area, APEC, China's integration into the regional and global economy, and various political, economic and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. The author would like to thank Michael K. Hawes for his valuable comments on the early draft of this article.     

东北亚地区的民族国家认同、地区认同与对外认知

认同会对政治的认识与行为带来重要影响。但从国际关系视角对这一问题进行研究尚处于起步阶段。本文就构建东北亚共同体为背景,以韩中日三国为主轴,通过问卷调查的形式,对东北亚地区民族国家认同的强度和影响力,民族国家认同对地区认同的形成以及东北亚国家的对外认识的影响,超国家的接触对国家、地区认同及对外认识的影响等三个问题得出了结论。并认为,韩中日三国均表现出强烈的国家认同,并对地区共同体的形成产生不良影响;东北亚地区存在的否定相互认知,根源在于日本帝国主义的侵略战争。     

Perceptions toward North Korea’s nuclear weapons program: Findings from a public opinion survey

Due to the potential spread of nuclear weapons, North Korea’s nuclear weapons test represents a serious security threat to East Asia as well as a global risk. Many sources, including the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, argue that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program poses a security threat to the United States because missiles fired from North Korea could reach Hawaii or Alaska. Against this backdrop, however, no empirical research analyzing how much the ordinary American feels threatened by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has been conducted. This paper examines American public opinion toward North Korea’s nuclear weapons program based on a regional survey conducted in Hawaii during the summer of 2005. The research compares and evaluates through various quantitative research methods, to what extent the respondents’ various demographic, political, and socioeconomic backgrounds seem to have divergently influenced the perception of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. In the evaluation of the majority of people in Hawaii, North Korea is pursuing the nuclear weapons program to enhance their national prestige and for self-defense purposes. Many respondents proposed multilateral negotiation as a desirable settlement method for managing North Korea’s nuclear program.     

The North Pacific triangle: Sources of economic and political transforation

This article explores the changing economic and security relationships among the United States, Japan, and South Korea, with particular attention to the implications of post-1985 exchange-rate shifts for political and economic stability in these three nations. The author argues that the stability and cohesion of this strategically important North Pacific triangle, the only point outside Europe where the economic and military superpowers all adjoin one American to the Japanese market as the locus of regional growth, due to disproportionate and destabilizing adjustment costs being imposed on South Korea. Expanded American, and especially Japanese support initiatives are the principal alternatives to intensified Korean reliance on continental Asia, the article maintains.     

South Korean Environmental Foreign Policy

Korea's environmental foreign policy has developed in a dual-track fashion. In global environmental negotiations, Korea emphasizes environmental preservation but implementation patterns clearly prioritize its own economic interests. When it comes to regional environmental cooperation in Northeast Asia, however, Korea has often acted in the interest of the environment as the country has taken a leading role in promoting and developing environmental cooperation. It is an interesting question how Korea, a middle power in the region that acts on its own economic interests in global environmental negotiations, has taken a leading role in regional environmental cooperation. Analysis suggests that Korea's leading role in regional environmental cooperation results from its regional geopolitical situation, as well as its diplomatic efforts. Besides, Korea's vital environmental, political, and economic interests related to regional cooperation further motivate the country to take an active stance as well.     

China,the United States,and the Future of Regional Security Order—An Unhappy Coexistence

The concept of order in regional security is often characterized as hierarchical, consensus-based, or some hybrid middle-road. The debate largely focuses on how major powers, specifically China or America, can individually build an accommodating order. This article explores the causation of order-building in reverse by asking if the Sino-US relationship can create order as a by-product of individual attempts to build and manage security. It examines Chinese and American responses to North Korea and the South China Sea to demonstrate that order can be constructed through a complex set of negotiated interactions, which encompass cooperative, hierarchical, and consensus-building approaches to order-building. This “unhappy coexistence” implies that order as a by-product of state interaction is a useful but incomplete framework to understand security order-building.     

韩中合作强化方案考察

2012年是韩中建交20周年。在克服漫长的冷战时期积累起来的敌对和不信任的同时,过去20年来韩中关系取得了耀眼的、飞速的发展。在正式层面上,两国经过善邻友好关系—合作伙伴关系—全面合作伙伴关系,最终建立了"战略合作伙伴关系"。在21世纪的新环境中,韩国和中国也可能比过去20年的发展更进一步,发展成追求战略上的共同目标和利益的战略共进关系。但伴随着这种正面的因素,也同时存在着美国和中国、中国和韩国的战略利益彼此冲突的危险。特别是在像美中势力转移时代这样不确定、不稳定因素繁多的时期,反而要在明确核心利益的差异是什么、承认彼此间差异的基础上更进一步,发展实现相互合作和双方利益的"和而不同"的外交。     

朴槿惠政府东北亚和平合作构想的具体化和改进方向

2013年2月上台的朴槿惠政府提出了一项新的外交政策,即"东北亚和平合作构想",并在国内外进行广泛宣传和研究。"东北亚和平合作构想"为了解决包括区域外国家美国在内的,东北亚区域内各国间的"亚洲悖论",以非传统安全领域的"软安全"问题为中心,开展多边对话机制,并致力于最终形成一个东北亚安全共同体。但该构想尚处于理论起步阶段,对合作(安全)议题、区域范围(参与对象国)、行为主体、国际机制(制度化)、推进战略等问题没有具体界定,距离政策化也还有一段距离。其间朴槿惠总统(政府)向美国和中国介绍了"东北亚和平合作构想",但仅得到美国的消极理解和中国原则上的支持,并没有得到对该构想的实质和具体内容的理解和支持。"东北亚和平合作构想"应要进一步具体化、理论化,以此来得到东北亚各国一致认同且可实践的国际合作体制。     

朴槿惠时代的韩国东北亚政策分析

朴槿惠作为韩国历史上首位女总统杂的外交棋局。在韩国的外交重心东北亚地区，韩系、韩朝关系均面临两难选择。面对这样的态势，，接手的是一副异常错综复美关系、韩日关系、韩中关朴槿惠如何“破局”问题的关键。本文回顾了韩国在东北亚地区的基本外交战略。分析了韩北亚地区面临的外交困境，在此基础上根据朴槿惠在各种场合的言论，韩国在未来五年的外交政策走向。就成为国在东分析了     

China and Northeast Asia’s Regional Security Architecture: The Six-Party Talks as a Case of Chinese Regime-Building?

China, as host of the six-party talks first convened in August 2003, has been one of the major players in dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis that began in October 2002. China??s role in the talks has helped to start shaping a stable regional security architecture in Northeast Asia. Beijing??s leadership in building a new security regime in the region suggests a change on Chinese perspectives regarding its role within the broader East Asia??s regional security architecture. After years of passiveness with regards to involvement in security regime building in the region, China has evolved into an active leader seeking to shape a more institutionalized security. Despite the obstacles to building a functioning regime in Northeast Asia, China seems poised to continue working towards creation of a more stable and institutionalized security architecture.     

构建“东北亚人类安全共同体”中的人类安全议题和国际机制探索

韩国朴槿惠总统自从2009年以来提倡"东北亚和平合作构想",并向美中等国家寻求支持。"东北亚和平合作构想"就是以韩国和朝鲜为主,包括美国、中国、日本、俄罗斯和蒙古等亚太国家和非国家行动主体,培养非传统安全或是软性安全热点问题合作。但该构想存在许多问题,如美国是否作为参与国加入,议题是否包含传统安全和制度化水平问题。如果美国加入,那么,东北亚区域固有的人类安全议题的选择混乱或将引起东北亚的认同性危机;议题的最终目标如果是传统安全,那么非传统安全或软性安全的重要性将被削弱;在制度化水平方面,习惯和惯例的制约性和实效性将成为问题。本文提出了作为东北亚区域内国家间的和平合作体,形成针对人类安全议题的"东北亚人类安全共同体"的方案,研究人类安全理论和国际机制并验证了其合理性。由此,确认了仅限于东北亚国家之间的人类安全范围内形成共同体的合理性。     

Japan as America’s global partner: Problems and prospects

The concept of global partnership remains a central theme in the conduct of U.S.-Japan relations in the post-Cold War world. This article critically evaluates Japan’s performance and potential as a global partner for the United States. It notes the qualified outcomes to Japan’s extended quest for a world role, its inability to lead by example in world trade and its preference for international status and contributions as a substitute for international political leadership. On the other hand the article recognizes the increasing significance of Japan’s human contribution to international peacekeeping, its willingness to tackle global problems in cooperation with the United States, and its potential to reduce security costs in Asia by means of foreign aid allocations, increased host-nation support for American forces and by promoting regional security dialogue. The article highlights Japan’s emerging identity as an Asian power and the problem of diverging U.S. and Japanese perspectives on democracy in the region. At the same time, it acknowledges the crucial importance Japan attaches to the continued American military presence in Asia and its desire to insulate the U.S.-Japan security relationship from economic and trade friction. The article concludes with the observation that Japan’s ability and willingness to operate as a global partner of the United States is much greater in some areas than in others. She is the co-author ofThe Political Economy of Agricultural Protection in Northeast Asia: East Asia in International Perspective (Allen and Unwin, 1986).