THE STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF URBAN HOMICIDE: REASSESSING THE IMPACT OF INCOME INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN THE POST-REAGAN ERA*

Numerous studies have explored the relationship between rates of homicide and income inequality and poverty. However, a general consensus on the theoretical and empirical connections among these variables has yet to be reached. This article reports the findings of a city-level analysis of this relationship, using 1990 data for the 190 largest cities in the United States. In order to address several methodological and theoretical concerns in prior literature, three separate measures of inequality and three categories of disaggregated homicide rates are analyzed. The results suggest that both inequality and poverty have significant and independent positive effects on rates of homicide in U.S. cities following the largest increase in the economic gap between rich and poor in our nation's history.     

POPULATION DIVERSITY AND CROSS-NATIONAL HOMICIDE: THE EFFECTS OF INEQUALITY AND HETEROGENEITY*

This study examines the impact of income inequality and ethnic heterogeneity on homicide rates for a sample of 32 nations. The results of the analyses indicate that vertical social direrentiation, as measured by income inequality, and horizontal differentiation, as indexed by ethnic heterogeneity, have signijicant main effects on cross-national homicide. Additionally, evidence is presented suggesting an interaction effect on inequaliry and heterogeneity on homicide. It appears that increased ethnic heterogeneity exacerbates the impact of income inequality on homicide rates.     

INCOME INEQUALITY AND HOMICIDE RATES: CROSS-NATIONAL DATA AND CRIMINOLOGICAL THEORIES

Previous studies have identified but failed to explain satisfactorily the positive relationship between income inequality and homicide rates. This paper proposes an explanation based on the concept of relative deprivation, but also reviews the criminological literature in a search for other theoretically relevant variables. After assessing problems of sampling and measurement, and using a considerably larger sample than used in previous studies, multiple regression analyses reveal positive net effects of both inequality and population growth (reflecting a higher proportion of young people) on homicide rates. Further analyses show that the effects of inequality on homicide are more pronounced in more democratic nations, a finding supporting the relative deprivation explanation. Income inequality also has stronger effects in more densely populated countries, in wealthier nations, and in countries with larger internal security forces.     

Gender equity, traditional masculine culture, and female homicide victimization

Several prior studies of gender equity and female violent victimization showed a positive relationship between the two, with some scholars defining this as a backlash effect due to increasing gender equity in the context of conservative gender role expectations. This assertion was tested here under a more general set of theories about real and perceived threats to White male dominance in the United States that suggested that the positive relationship between gender equity and female victimization was conditioned by the strength of traditional masculine culture. Using cross-sectional data and employing a commonly tested baseline model to control for other structural covariates of homicide rates, variables were introduced to represent gender income equity and different components of traditional masculine culture. Results confirmed a positive cross-sectional relationship between gender income equality and White non-Hispanic female homicide victimization rates, but did not show the expected interaction effects, leading the authors to conclude that other structural or cultural factors were the source of the positive relationship.     

RACIAL INEQUALITY AND RACIALLY DISAGGREGATED HOMICIDE RATES: AN ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVE THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS*

This research considers the relationship between levels of racial inequality and homicide rates for a sample of 154 U.S. cities. We identfy four causal processes that have been cited in the theoretical literature to explain the link between racial inequality and criminal violence. These diflerent causal explanations imply distinctive relationships between racial inequality and different types of homicide rates disaggregated by the racial characteristics of victims and offenders. Accordingly, we examine the effects of racial inequality on racially disaggregated homicide rates, as well as on total rates. We also introduce factor scales to alleviate the common problem of multicollinearity. Our results reveal significant, positive coefficients for racial inequality in equations predicting total homicide rates and race-specific offending rates. These results offer greatest support for theoretical arguments emphasizing a generalized effect of racial inequality on the offending behavior of residents of metropolitan communities.     

Regional Differences in the Economic Correlates of the Urban Homicide Rate

This article examines regional differences in the economic correlates of the urban homicide rate. On the basis of cultural variations between the South and other parts of the country, the proportion of the population below the poverty line and the level of income inequality are hypothesized to have stronger positive effects on the homicide rate in nonsouthern than in southern cities. Regression results for a sample of 256 nonsouthern cities and a sample of 91 southern cities do not support the hypothesis for the measure of income inequality, however. The Gini coefficient of family income concentration has no significant effect in either region. In contrast, the results for the poverty measure are consistent with expectations. The proportion below the poverty line has a significant, positive effect on the homicide rate only in the nonsouthern sample. These findings suggest that the impact of economic deprivation on rates of violent crime is likely to vary appreciably depending on the general cultural context.     

POVERTY,INFANT MORTALITY,AND HOMICIDE RATES IN CROSS-NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE: ASSESSMENTS OF CRITERION AND CONSTRUCT VALIDITY*

This article assesses the extent to which the infant mortality rate might be treated as a “proxy” for poverty in research on cross-national variation in homicide rates. We have assembled a pooled, cross-sectional time-series data set for 16 advanced nations from the 1993–2000 period that includes standard measures of infant mortality and homicide and contains information on the following commonly used “income-based” poverty measures: a measure intended to reflect “absolute” deprivation and a measure intended to reflect “relative” deprivation. With these data, we assess the criterion validity of the infant mortality rate with reference to the two income-based poverty measures. Also, we estimate the effects of the various indicators of disadvantage on homicide rates in regression models, thereby assessing construct validity. The results reveal that the infant mortality rate is correlated more strongly with “relative poverty” than with “absolute poverty,” although much unexplained variance remains. In the regression models shown here, the measure of infant mortality and the relative poverty measure yield significant positive effects on homicide rates, whereas the absolute poverty measure does not exhibit any significant effects. The results of our analyses suggest that it would be premature to dismiss relative deprivation in cross-national research on homicide, and that disadvantage is conceptualized and measured best as a multidimensional construct.     

The impact of population heterogeneity and income inequality on homicide rates: a cross-national assessment

The current research produces regression models with sample sizes from 127 to 131 by initially employing a data set of 170 nations. The current study finds that ethnic heterogeneity and linguistic heterogeneity lead to higher homicide rates. However, religious heterogeneity has no impact on homicide rates. The present article also tests an interaction effect between population heterogeneity and income inequality. Unlike J. R. Blau and Blau (1982) and Avision and Loring (1986) proposition, the interaction term is not related to national homicide rates. The current study also discusses the theoretical implications of those findings.     

Poverty, Inequality, and the Urban Homicide Rate: Some Unexpected Findings

The purpose of this article is to report findings concerning the relationship between poverty, inequality, and the homicide rate for a sample of 204 SMSAs. A measure of family income inequality exhibits a moderate zero order correlation with the homicide rate, but the effect becomes insignificant in the regression analysis. A second economic measure, that of the size of the poverty population, also exhibits a moderate zero order correlation with the homicide rate, but the partial effect is significant and the sign is quite unexpectedly negative. Additional unexpected results include strong partial effects for measures of Southern regional and racial composition. These findings suggest the need for reconsideration of the role of economic and perhaps subcultural factors in the explanation of urban homicide.     

ECONOMIC INEQUALITY AND LEVELS OF HOMICIDE: AN ANALYSIS OF URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS*

This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between levels of economic inequality and homicide rates for a sample of 26 neighborhoods in Manhattan, New York. It argues that neighborhoods are more appropriate units of analysis for studying inequality and homicide than are larger political and statistical units because neighborhoods are more likely to constitute meaningful frames of reference for social comparisons. The principle hypothesis is that a high degree of economic inequality in a neighborhood will give rise to high levels of relative deprivation and high rates of homicide. The results of a series of multiple regression analyses fail to support this hypothesis. The measure of economic inequality is weakly associated with the observed homicide rates. Similarly, the racial composition of Manhattan neighborhoods exhibits no significant association with levels of homicide, given statistical controls for other sociodemographic variables. Two neighborhood characteristics do emerge as significant predictors of homicide rates: the relative size of the poverty population and the percent divorced or separated. Homicide rates tend to be highest in those neighborhoods characterized by extreme poverty and pervasive marital dissolution.     

A METHODOLOGICAL ADDITION TO THE CROSS‐NATIONAL EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE: A FIRST TEST OF THE POVERTY‐HOMICIDE THESIS*

Dozens of cross‐national studies of homicide have been published in the last three decades. Although nearly all these studies test for an association between inequality and homicide, no studies test for a poverty—homicide association. This absence is disconcerting given that poverty is one of the most consistent predictors of area homicide rates in the abundant empirical literature on social structure and homicide in the United States. Using a sample that coincides closely with similar recent studies, applying a proxy for poverty (infant mortality) that is commonly employed in noncriminological cross‐national research, and controlling for several common covariates (including inequality), this study provides the first test of the poverty—homicide hypothesis at the cross‐national level. The results reveal a positive and significant association between a nation's level of poverty and its homicide rate. The findings also suggest that we may need to reassess the strong conclusions about an inequality—homicide association drawn from prior studies, as this relationship disappears when poverty is included in the model.     

RACE AND CRIME IN POSTWAR AMERICA: DETERMINANTS OF AFRICAN-AMERICAN AND WHITE RATES, 1957–1988*

The idea that crime and deviance are explained mostly by access to opportunities—especially those provided by employment, income, education, and family stability—is one of the most powerful assumptions about crime in postwar America. However, despite its importance, the actual relationship between opportunity measures and crime during this period remains little understood. while cross-sectional studies of these issues have become common, few longitudinal studies exist and those that do include a limited number of variables. Moreover, despite important differences in the history and experiences of African-Americans and whites during this period, researchers have assumed similar dynamics by race. In this paper, we use annual time-series data from 1957–1988 to examine the effects of economic well-being, educational attainment, and family stability on rates of robbery, burglary, and homicide for blacks and whites. Our results show that these measures have different—usually opposite—effects on black and white crime rates during the period. In general, measures of opportunity have expected effects on white but not black rates. We consider the implications for policy and research.     

Poverty, Inequality, and City Homicide Rates

Messner's recent investigation of homicide and relative and absolute economic deprivation is replicated here, but cities rather than SMSA's and three years (1950, 1960, 1970) rather than one (1970) are considered. Because of tremendous intra-unit variation for SMSAs with respect to homicides and sociodemographic characteristics (an important variation that is masked when data are aggregated on a SMSA level), cities are a preferable unit of analysis in cross-sectional investigations of homicide. Where M e s m found a significant negative relationship between percentage of poverty (absolute deprivation) and homicides, I consistently find the opposite pattern as predicted. In both studies, however, there is only a slight and nonsignificant relationship between relative economic deprivation (income inequality) and homicides. Unlike Messner, however, I do not consider this finding surprising. At best, there is only a weak theoretical linkage between homicide and relative economic deprivation. Accordingly, the results of this investigation for both absolute and relative deprivation are neither "perplexing" nor do they warrant the "serious reconsideration of the linkages between poverty, inequality and the homicide rate" that Messner (1982: 112) calls for.     

Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving the Paradox

While official crime statistics from many countries show that unemployed people have high crime rates and that communities with a lot of unemployment experience a lot of crime, this cross-sectional relationship is very often not found in time-series studies of unemployment and crime. In Australia there have been no individual-level or cross-sectional studies of unemployment and adult crime which have failed to find a positive relationship and no time-series which have supported a positive relationship. Consistent with this pattern, a time series of homicide from 1921 to 1987 in Australia reveals no significant unemployment effect. A theoretical resolution of this apparent paradox is advanced in terms of the effect of female employment on crime in a partriarchal society. Crime is posited as a function of both total unemployment and female employment. When female employment is added to the model, it has a strong positive effect on homicide, and unemployment also assumes a strong positive effect.     

HOMICIDE,STRUCTURAL FACTORS,AND THE RACIAL INVARIANCE ASSUMPTION*

Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the “racial invariance assumption” remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socio-economic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates.     

DIMENSIONS OF RACIAL INEQUALITY AND RATES OF VIOLENT CRIME*

The purpose of this paper is to identify systematic sources of discrepancies in the macro-level research on racial inequality and rates of violent crime. A review of the literature suggests three likely sources of discrepant results across previous studies: differing operationalizations of racial inequality, differing samples, and differing specifications. The analyses reveal that while sample composition appears to be relatively unimportant, operationalization of racial inequality in terms of socioeconomic status (SES) rather than income can lead to very different conclusions. For certain models, SES-based measures are clearly superior to income-based measures. However, slight modifications of the regression models can render the effects of racial inequality in SES nonsignificant. These results call for a skeptical assessment of previous evidence indicating a positive relationship between racial inequality and rates of violent crime.     

SOCIAL SUPPORT,INEQUALITY, AND HOMICIDE: A CROSS‐NATIONAL TEST OF AN INTEGRATED THEORETICAL MODEL*

Social support, institutional anomie, and macrolevel general strain perspectives have emerged as potentially important explanations of aggregate levels of crime. Drawing on insights from each of these perspectives in a cross‐national context, the analyses show that 1) our measure of social support is inversely related to homicide rates, 2) economic inequality also maintains a direct relationship with homicide rates, and 3) social support significantly interacts with economic inequality to influence homicide rates. The implications of the analysis for ongoing discourse concerning the integration of these criminological theories and the implications for the development of effective crime control policies are discussed.     

ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION AND CHANGES IN HOMICIDE ARREST RATES FOR WHITE AND BLACK YOUTHS, 1967–1998: A NATIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS*

Using time‐series techniques with national data for 1967–98, we model the effects on changes in age‐race‐specific arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (lagged) yields a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of intraracial income inequality are also associated with changes in juvenile arrest rates, but the effects differ by race. Between‐race inequality is unrelated to changes in arrest rates for both races. Our general conclusion is that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades can be understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro‐economic environment confronting young people and their families.     

POLICING,DRUGS, AND THE HOMICIDE DECLINE IN NEW YORK CITY IN THE 1990s*

This research reassesses the role of policing and drugs in the sharp homicide decline in New York City in the 1990s. Drawing on theoretical arguments about “broken windows” policing and lethal violence associated with the diffusion of crack cocaine, we estimate the effects of measures of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence on homicide rates with pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series data for 74 New York City precincts over the 1990–1999 period. The results of mixed regression models reveal a significant negative effect of changes in misdemeanor arrests and a significant positive effect of changes in cocaine prevalence on changes in total homicide rates. Additional analyses of homicide disaggregated by weapon indicate that the effects of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence emerge for gun‐related but not for non‐gun‐related homicides. Overall, the research generally supports influential interpretations of the homicide decline in New York City but also raises questions about underlying mechanisms that warrant more inquiry in future research.     

Immigration and the Changing Nature of Homicide in US Cities, 1980–2010

Objectives

Previous research has neglected to consider whether trends in immigration are related to changes in the nature of homicide. This is important because there is considerable variability in the temporal trends of homicide subtypes disaggregated by circumstance. In the current study, we address this issue by investigating whether within-city changes in immigration are related to temporal variations in rates of overall and circumstance-specific homicide for a sample of large US cities during the period between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

Fixed-effects negative binomial and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression models are used to analyze data from 156 large US cities observed during the 1980–2010 period.

Results

Findings from the analyses suggest that temporal change in overall homicide and drug homicide rates are significantly related to changes in immigration. Specifically, increases in immigration are associated with declining rates for each of the preceding outcome measures. Moreover, for several of the homicide types, findings suggest that the effects of changes in immigration vary across places, with the largest negative associations appearing in cities that had relatively high initial (i.e., 1970) immigration levels.

Conclusions

There is support for the thesis that changes in immigration in recent decades are related to changes in rates of lethal violence. However, it appears that the relationship is contingent and varied, not general.