How Much Can We Trust Causal Interpretations of Fixed-Effects Estimators in the Context of Criminality?

Researchers are often interested in estimating the causal effect of some treatment on individual criminality. For example, two recent relatively prominent papers have attempted to estimate the respective direct effects of marriage and gang participation on individual criminal activity. One difficulty to overcome is that the treatment is often largely the product of individual choice. This issue can cloud causal interpretations of correlations between the treatment and criminality since those choosing the treatment (e.g. marriage or gang membership) may have differed in their criminality from those who did not even in the absence of the treatment. To overcome this potential for selection bias researchers have often used various forms of individual fixed-effects estimators. While such fixed-effects estimators may be an improvement on basic cross-sectional methods, they are still quite limited when it comes to uncovering a true causal effect of the treatment on individual criminality because they may fail to account for the possibility of dynamic selection. Using data from the NSLY97, I show that such dynamic selection can potentially be quite large when it comes to criminality, and may even be exacerbated when using more advanced fixed-effects methods such as Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW). Therefore substantial care must be taken when it comes to interpreting the results arising from fixed-effects methods.     

公关如何撬动“社会媒体”

无处不公关的互联网时代，公关产业可以轻易搭上“社会媒体”的翅膀，但也需谨慎选择，以避免遭受大众质疑。     

Contamination of forensic DNA evidence in the light of Hungarian court decisions – A review of 25 years

The evaluation of forensic DNA expert opinions (in some countries expert witness testimonies) and the way it affects criminal judgement is of paramount importance. We have selected one of the largest challenges when it comes to the evaluation of forensic DNA evidence, contamination of DNA samples, and examined how it influences the decisions judges make about the credibility of DNA evidence in Hungary.     

刑事犯、行政犯统一化之提倡——兼论涉及行政法规范的犯罪的故意认定

区分刑事犯、行政犯的标准不具有可操作性，无论是以伦理道德的标准还是以生活秩序的标准，都无法明确划清二者的界限。区分刑事犯、行政犯是德日为解决本国立法背景下的特定问题而创制的理论，在我国当前的刑事立法模式下，区分二者并无现实意义。行政犯的故意成立原则上也不需要违法性认识，对刑事犯和行政犯在故意的认识因素上应适用统一标准。     

排除合理怀疑及其在西方面临的挑战

排除合理怀疑是英美法系刑事证明标准的经典性表述 ,但其到底是如何产生的 ,一直是一个有争议的问题。对于应否对其进行定义 ,在理论和司法实践中也一直争论非常激烈。对其涵义的界定主要有七种方式。当前 ,排除合理怀疑在西方面临着严峻的挑战 ,原因主要来自三个方面 :一是自身涵义过于抽象和模糊 ;二是司法实践中对其界定相互矛盾 ;三是缺乏可操作性。     

论“放小”的刑事政策

刑罚并非万能，而是有其局限和天然的流弊。刑罚的目的、功能以及成本决定了刑罚的使用应是谨慎的、谦抑的，有边界的，尤其是对于轻微的刑事犯罪、无被害人犯罪、偶发犯等更是如此。基于对刑罚的限度与局限的认识，刑事政策上，在“抓大”的同时，我们还必须“放小”，即对于不需台或矫治有可能的犯罪／犯罪人实行宽松的刑事政策，即非犯罪化、非刑罚化与非机构化的“放小”的刑事政策。     

论催告之生效时点

催告何时生效,涉及诉讼时效及保证责任期间的中断等,对当事人利益影响甚巨。《诉讼时效司法解释》的相关规定名为"到达主义",实为"发信主义",对债权人利益似有过度保护的嫌疑,在实务运作及理论逻辑上都有值得商榷之处。而学说普遍认为,作为意思通知的催告,在构造上与意思表示十分接近,适用意思表示的生效规则在逻辑上并无问题。为了保持立法、学说在体系上的整合及内在逻辑的统一,作为意思通知的催告应以"到达主义"为其生效时点的确定规则。     

Applying generic sentencing aims in domestic violence cases in England and Wales

There is an enduring legacy of trivialisation and ineffectiveness at various stages in the criminal justice process when it comes to responding to domestic violence. One area of contention relates to sentence. Sentencers in England and Wales are bound by law to have regard to a number of aims: the punishment of offenders; deterrence; public protection; rehabilitation; and reparation. Whilst commentators have criticised the framework on the basis that it is contradictory and engenders inconsistency, it will be argued that granting sentencers discretion to balance the prescribed aims maximises the potential for a successful outcome in individual cases.     

Sequencing of mitochondrial DNA and the problem of human specificity

When analysing trace materials and degraded DNA the issue of human specificity is highly important. Especially when it comes down to the analysis of mitochondrial DNA which is extremely susceptible to contamination authenticity is the main question. Therefore in the presented study mitochondrial primers were tested on their human specificity. In all cases it was possible to amplify DNA of animals with human mt-primers. These unintentional amplifications could only be decreased by choosing austere PCR parameters. The study implies the importance of comprehensive evaluation of primers, chemicals and PCR parameters.     

How to Prepare for the Hurricane Season and Avoid Being Underinsured for Business Interruption Coverage,and a Special Section on “What to Do If You Have Loss of Income from the BP Oil Spill”

Most chief financial officers (CFOs) and risk managers have an understanding of their property and liability insurance needs and are comfortable purchasing coverage that protects their companies from a loss due to an insured peril. However, it has been our experience that their comfort level declines dramatically when it comes to business interruption coverage and limits. The uncertainty surrounding business interruption coverage, extensions of coverage, and respective limits of that coverage consistently results in many organizations finding themselves underinsured and short of cash when faced with a major loss. How can you, the CFO or risk manager, avoid that day of reckoning when your company cannot afford the economic consequences of an underinsured loss? Plus, what to do if you have a business income loss from the Gulf Oil Spill.     

论民事诉讼简易程序的法理基础

民事诉讼简易程序作为迅速、廉价地解决民事简单案件的诉讼程序 ,得到越来越广泛的肯定和适用。设立民事诉讼简易程序 ,并非仅仅是为了提高法院的办案速度而采取的权宜之计 ,而是基于公民获得司法救济权、诉讼费用相当、司法资源的合理配置以及适时审判等诉讼法理的必然要求     

EEO's next frontier: assignments, training, and promotion.

Too often, says Prof. Ginzberg, newly hired employees from minority groups are overlooked when it comes to training and assignment to better jobs. The only safe and sane policy for employers to follow is to consider everyone who is hired in any opening position to be in a pool of potential promotables. With the num0er of qualified persons from previously underrepresented groups growing rapidly, the pressure is on management to reflect this fact in promoting individuals from these groups to higher ranks.     

论债权之罹于时效与担保物权之存续

关于担保物权在被担保的债权罹于诉讼时效后的法律地位,有不同的立法例。基于诉讼时效的立法宗旨,以及我国担保物权以担保债权实现为功能,在我国,应确立如下改革方向:债权罹于诉讼时效时,担保该债权的担保物权应仍然存续,且其效力不受任何影响;关于质权和留置权,应明确规定,被担保的债权消灭之前,质权或留置权不消灭;关于抵押权,应以除斥期间限制其存续期间。     

非法定行政程序及其司法审查

学界对行政程序的关注主要限于法定行政程序,而对非法定行政程序有所忽略。非法定行政程序为法律、法规、规章规定之外的行政程序,它虽具有弥补法定程序不足的功用,但也容易滥用因程序裁量权而忽视相对人的程序性权利。对于不违反法律、法规、规章的非法定行政程序,法院应当按照正当程序原则的司法审查标准进行审查;违反该原则的,属于《行政诉讼法》第54条规定的滥用职权之情形,法院可据此撤销相应的具体行政行为。     

刑法框架下见危不助犯罪化的具体考量

基于刑事一体化的要求,刑事立法也应从"一体化"的要求出发,在研制出法律文本的同时顾及司法与守法的可能。通过对见危不助犯罪化的刑事立法本身及其在法律实践中的实际效果进行分析与研究表明,将见危不助行为犯罪化的做法,无法在法益判断上寻求到立法的根据,司法实践中也会遭遇无法解决的困难。将道德纳入刑法体系,未必见得公民便能确立对法律的忠诚,刑法并不是我们在规制见危不助行为方面所能达致的普遍共识。     

The Transfer of Manufacturing Processes and Standards in U.S. Plants Operating in the U.K.

This paper finds that U.S. firms tend to utilize their manufacturing processes when operating in the U.K. but that they adopt the production standards of the host country. Three process technology variables are examined: MRP I (materials requirements planning), JIT (just in time), and TQM (total quality management). While significant differences are found between indigenous plants in each of the two countries, the adoption of these manufacturing technologies is similar for American firms operating in either country. In contrast, U.S. transplants are found to be enthusiastic adopters of ISO 9000, suggesting that host country effects are large when it comes to conforming to regional standards.     

企业组织结构的惰性特征研究

企业组织结构惰性是指企业发展到一定阶段后，组织结构所带有的正规化和僵化的特征。本文在回顾有关理论的基础上，从可靠性、可解释性、合法性、可复制性等方面分析了企业组织结构惰性的形成机理，并揭示了其构成维度主要包括正式化、集权化、整合化、复杂化和制度化等5个方面。从而可推动人们以此为基础展开更深层次的研究，并对于处于转轨时期的中国企业也具有重要的实践意义。     

经营者集中的反垄断审查制度刍议简

市场经济大背景下,经营者集中活动无疑给参与者和整个市场带来了许多机遇,但与此同时也给良好市场竞争秩序的保持带来了挑战.经营者集中反垄断审查制度因此应运而生.这一制度广泛借鉴了他国优秀的立法与实践成果,满足了反垄断法内在的价值追求,但在申报标准、审查程序、审查标准等方面仍有不完整、不完善和值得商榷之处.     

Legal Compliance in Street‐Level Bureaucracy: A Study of UK Housing Officers

Street‐level bureaucratic theory is now at a fairly mature stage. The focus on street‐level bureaucrats as ultimate policymakers is now as familiar as it is important. Likewise, the parallel sociolegal study of the implementation of public law in public organizations has demonstrated the inevitable gap between law‐in‐the‐books and law‐in‐action. Yet, the success of these advances comes at the potential cost of us losing sight of the importance of law itself. This article analyzes some empirical data on the decision making about one legal concept—vulnerability in UK homelessness law. Our analysis offers two main contributions. First, we argue that, when it comes to the implementation of law, the legal abilities and propensities of the bureaucrats must be taken into account. Bureaucrats' abilities to understand legal materials make a difference to the likelihood of legal compliance. Second, we must also pay attention to the character of the legal provisions. Where a provision is simple, it is more likely to facilitate legal knowledge and demands nothing of bureaucrats in terms of legal competence. Where the provision is also inoffensive and liveable, it is less likely to act as an impediment to legal conscientiousness.     

Facing into the wind's teeth: An interview with hal pepinsky

Editor's Note: The title of the interview comes from a poem by William Carlos Williams entitled The Manoeuvre. There Williams talks about seeing two starlings, just before alighting, turning in the air together backwards--but what got to him, he says, was that in doing so, they faced "into the wind's teeth." Commenting on the poem, Denise Levertov points out that, while it is a celebration of life, it also tells us that life sometimes requires adroit manoeuvering, its fullness emerging when we work not against but in cooperation with that which makes it most difficult. The interview speaks to this throughout.