Estimating the probability of local crime clusters: The impact of immediate spatial neighbors

Purpose

To investigate the importance of immediate spatial neighbors when investigating local crime patterns.

Methods

Local indicators of spatial association are used to identify local crime clusters. The classification scheme of these local crime clusters is then modeled in a multinomial logistic regression.

Results

The results show that immediate spatial neighbors are important for understanding local crime patterns. Though (positive) spatial autocorrelation has long been known to be present with crime data, this analysis suggests that negative spatial autocorrelation (if present) has a significantly different implication. Generally speaking, when predicting a local crime cluster type, the immediate spatial neighbors are more important for correct prediction. As such, a low local crime area that is surrounded by high crime areas presents itself as a high crime area in the regression results.

Conclusions

Therefore, efforts to understand the criminal nature of an area must not consider that area in isolation.     

The impact of CCTV on fundamental rights and crime prevention strategies: The case of the Catalan Control Commission of Video surveillance Devices

Many authors have written about issues related to privacy, legitimacy and efficiency in relation to CCTV systems in public space as a crime prevention strategy. Some have approached them separately; others have tried to come up with more comprehensive approaches. Few, however, have dealt with how such concerns have been put into practice by those who have to decide on the uptake of CCTV. This article considers some reflections on efficacy, legitimacy and privacy in relation to CCTV, as an introduction to the case of how the members of the Control Commission of Video surveillance Devices in Catalonia took these issues into consideration and interpreted the Law when deciding whether to approve a petition submitted by the City Council to install three cameras in Barcelona’s public space in 2003. It concludes by drawing some conclusions from the process, as a way to highlight the complexity of the policy process around surveillance in open, public spaces.     

Measuring the impact of law enforcement on organized crime

This article explores the possibility of measuring the impact of law enforcement on organized crime in a reliable and accountable manner, both in general terms and with a practical focus on the Canadian context. In considering measures to combat organized crime, a focus on process measurement has obscured the more substantial question of progress as regards the dependent variable itself: the bottom line of reducing the impact of organized criminal behaviour. While outcome measures are more challenging to identify than process measures, this fact alone does not minimize the need to demonstrate the connection between organized crime enforcement and its presumed outcomes to a greater degree of certainty. To date, this has not been realized to any significant degree, as revealed by a review of existing international approaches to measuring the impact of enforcement activity. The article argues that a multidisciplinary focus on community level indicators of crime, if initially less accessible than process measures of impact on organized crime groups, offers promise as a measurement of absolute and relative impact of state investment in enforcement.

Measuring the crime displacement and diffusion of benefit effects of open-street CCTV in South Korea

Crime prevention strategies are implemented to reduce the damage caused by crimes with CCTV (Closed-Circuit Television) being broadly accepted as one of the main strategies. However, along with CCTV's perceived high expectations as crime deterrent, there is also a growing controversy over CCTV's potentially unexpected limitations. For example, the crime displacement (the presence of CCTV will change the locations of crime and its total number will not change) and the diffusion effects of crime control benefits (the crime prevention effect of CCTV may filter through to neighboring areas) are the representative controversial issues. In this study, we aimed to verify the crime displacement and the diffusion of benefit of open-street CCTV by analyzing the crime tendencies empirically.Gwang Myeong City in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea was chosen to analyze the crime displacement using the WDQ (Weighted Displacement Quotient) which compares the crime tendency of a location with that of its neighboring areas. The results showed that the crime prevention effect of the CCTV was significant. The number of robberies and thefts in the areas with CCTV installed reduced by 47.4%, while the areas without CCTV showed practically no change in the number of crimes. The crime displacement caused by the CCTV was not either found or inconsequential, and the crime rates in the neighboring areas also decreased slightly. Of major cause for concern was the fact that CCTV was marginally effective in deterring violence and as such, there should be a more detailed scientific analysis of the pattern and type of crimes committed in an area where CCTV's are being installed.     

The impact of the wilson administration on economic crime rates

Previous research, based upon the interrupted time-series analysis of monthly data, has demonstrated that changes in the organizational structure of police departments produce short-term changes in the level of reported crime. The present study extends this literature by examining the independent effects of a change in hierarchical control (i.e., the appointment of O. W. Wilson as the new chief of the Chicago Police Department) and changes, over time, in the ecological structure of Chicago on reported rates of economic crime. The multivariate analyses indicate that the failure to take into account organizational change leads to model specification error. We conclude that longitudinal, within-jurisdictional research, based on the analysis of UCR data, must take into account changes in police bureaucracies that can affect the production of official counts of crime.     

The impact of higher education on crime orientations

The formulation of crime policy is as complex as the phenomenon of crime itself. Numerous orientations to crime vie for consideration in the policy process, and the result is usually a confounding mixture of concepts and policies. It is the purpose of this study to analyze four prevalant orientations to crime and to assess the impact of a college education on student attitudes toward the different orientations. The findings suggest that criminal justice education and higher education, in general, have a significant impact on individuals' perceptions of the causes of crime and the functions of the criminal justice system. Given the increased emphasis on higher education within the justice system, the educational process is likely to play an important role in the evolution of criminal justice policies.     

Assessing the impact of casino gambling on crime in Mississippi

The introduction of legalized gambling into a community has generated a great deal of hubris regarding concomitant criminality. While Las Vegas has long been synonymous with organized crime, the recent focus has been on the connection between traditional crime and legalized gambling. The conventional wisdom among opponents of this new source of revenue is that casinos attract many undesirables to the community, thereby increasing crime and social disorganization. Routine activities theory would suggest that with increased numbers of tourists, more opportunities for crime will exist. To test this proposition, the frequency of crime before and after the introduction of legalized gambling in Biloxi, Mississippi was examined. Larcey-theft and motor vehicle theft were the only categories of crime to show statistically significant change. Robbery and aggravated assault increased, while murder and rape declined, although the change was not statistically significant for any category of violent crime.     

The accuracy of crime statistics: assessing the impact of police data bias on geographic crime analysis

Journal of Experimental Criminology - Police-recorded crimes are used by police forces to document community differences in crime and design spatially targeted strategies. Nevertheless, crimes...     

Police-monitored CCTV cameras in Newark, NJ: A quasi-experimental test of crime deterrence

We present a test of the crime-deterrent effect of police-monitored street-viewing CCTV cameras using viewsheds of areas that were visible by cameras via direct line-of-sight and that were digitized using easily replicable methods, Google Maps, and standard GIS tools. A quasi-experimental research design, using camera installation sites and randomly selected control sites, assessed the impact of CCTV on the crimes of shootings, auto thefts, and thefts from autos in Newark, NJ, for 13 months before and after camera installation dates. Strategically-placed cameras were not any different from randomly-placed cameras at deterring crime within their viewsheds; there were statistically significant reductions in auto thefts within viewsheds after camera installations; there were significant improvements to location quotient values for shootings and auto thefts after camera installations. There was no significant displacement and there was a small diffusion of benefits, which was greater for auto thefts than shootings. The system of cameras in Newark is not as efficient as it could be at deterring certain street crimes; some camera locations are significantly more effective than others. Results of a system-wide evaluation of CCTV cameras should not be the only basis for endorsing or contesting the use of CCTV cameras for crime control or prevention within a city. Future research should test whether the effectiveness of CCTV cameras are dependent upon the micro-level attributes of environments within which they are installed.     

An assessment of the impact of quality-of-life policing on crime and disorder

In this paper we examine the impact of quality-of-life policing on crime and disorder. Specifically, we examine a quality-of-life initiative conducted by the Chandler, Arizona Police Department, which was grounded in an operational strategy of policing social and physical disorder. Using data on calls for service, we employ an interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effect of the intervention on 10 offense categories within the overall target area and within four zones that constitute the target area. The findings suggest that the quality-of-life initiative exerted the strongest effect on two categories of crime and disorder: public morals and physical disorder. Diffusion of benefit and displacement effects were also observed in nearby areas. We discuss the implications of the findings for policy makers and researchers.     

Asian transnational organized crime and its impact on the United States: Developing a transnational crime research agenda

Undertaken on behalf of the National Institute of Justice between July 2003 and August 2004, the research goals of this study were to (a) determine high priority areas for research on Asian transnational organized crime (TOC); (b) assess the impact of Asian TOC on the United States; (3) identify relevant data and information sources in Asia; and (4) identify potential collaborative research partners and institutions in Asia. The aim was thus not to examine in detail the organized crime situation in this region, but rather to lay the foundation for a research agenda and strategy that would accomplish that purpose. In seeking to achieve this aim, the researchers used a variety of techniques as part of an overall exploratory methodology. They included four months of interviews (andfield observations) with experts in eight Asian sites, including law enforcement officials, policymakers, and scholars, as well as American officials in each site. Meetings were also held with Asian crime experts in the United States. Interviews and site visits were supplemented with surveys and analyses done by local Asian researchers, an analysis of U.S. indictments, and the review of a large volume of literature. The sites covered by this research are China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia. The major findings are first, that there is little consensus among the Asian authorities on just wliat their main organized crime problems are. Whereas the Asian authorities give higher priority to traditional organized crimes, e.g., gambling, extortion, prostitution, etc., the American authorities focus more on transnational crimes. Consistent with this view, Asian authorities do not see much linkage between the local or regional crime groups about which they are most concerned, and transnational organized crime. Next, contrary to the views and expectations of some American authorities, the commonly expressed view among the respondents in this study is that there is no collaboration or linkage between transnational organized crime groups and terrorists. Finally, the transnational organized crime networks operating in the region are said to be highly specialized, with any overlapping of criminal activities occurring mostly at the level of transportation of goods or people. It is recommended that future collaborative research efforts focus on trafficking in women and children, human smuggling, and drug production and trafficking. These are likely to continue to have the most impact upon the United States and upon U.S. interests in the region. It is further recommended that these research efforts be both bi-lateral (principally with China) and multi-lateral in nature. A wide variety of potentially willing research partners are identified and their strengths and weaknesses are assessed. Finally, a specific strategy for accomplishing the research agenda is proposed. Support for this research was provided by TDL# 1700-215 from the National Institute of Justice. The opinions are those of the authors and do not reflect the policies or views of the National Institute of Justice.     

Modeling the longitudinal impact of legal sanctions on narcotics use and property crime

Structural equation models are used to confirm the suppressive effects of legal sanctions, e.g., probation and parole, on narcotics use and property crime. Both concurrent and longitudinal effects of legal sanctions are tested within two different models, which together span the entire addiction career. The findings indicate that (1) the suppressive effects of legal sanctions are evident only when legal sanctions are operationalized as parole or probation officer contact where urine monitoring is utilized; (2) only concurrent suppressive effects are statistically significant, and longitudinal suppressive effects are not; (3) both narcotics use and property crime are suppressed by legal sanctions, although the latter is less responsive than the former to intervention by the criminal justice system; and (4) suppressive effects tend to be more pronounced later in the addiction career. The significance of the findings and the implications for criminological theory related to issues regarding surveillance effects are emphasized.     

The relationship between antisocial stereotypes and public CCTV systems: exploring fear of crime in the modern surveillance society

Abstract

Situational crime deterrence measures like CCTV are not always associated with reductions in fear of crime. This study explores this unexpected finding by investigating the interaction between target type and the presence of a CCTV camera, in order to test the effect this has on impressions of the target and corresponding fear of the location the target was shown in. Participants (n=120) were shown either a picture of a male ‘skinhead’, a ‘studious’ female, or no one within an urban setting in which an obvious CCTV camera was either present or absent. Participants then rated the scene using scales estimating crime frequency, worry and target activity. Estimates of location safety fell for the male ‘skinhead’ target and activity impressions were more negative, but only when a CCTV camera was also present. Ironically, in some circumstances, public crime deterrence measures may prime pre-existing negative stereotypes about others and so foster suspicion, undermine trust in others, and increase fear of crime.     

The impact of racial slurs and racism on the perceptions and punishment of violent crime

When a crime is committed by an individual of one race against an individual of another race, there is the possibility that the crime is a hate crime. Legislation often mandates harsher penalties for perpetrators convicted of crimes determined to be hate crimes, yet this determination is difficult to make. This study used vignettes of violent crimes to examine how the races of the perpetrators and victims, the severity of the assault, and the use of racial slurs by the perpetrators would affect perceptions of the crimes as "hate crimes," victim blaming, and sentencing recommendations. Results showed that each of these factors affected participants' perceptions and punishments of violent crime. Participants' levels of racism were an additional factor. These results contribute to the understanding of how crimes in which the perpetrator's and victim's races differ are perceived.     

Sexual crime and place: The impact of the environmental context on sexual assault outcomes

Purpose

Using the rational choice perspective, the current study investigates the impact that the environment and offending behavior have on serial sexual crime event outcomes.

Methods

The effects of time and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, on sexual crime event outcomes are tested using Generalized Estimating Equations on a sample of 361 crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders.

Results

Time and place do impact serial stranger sexual offenders’ modus operandi strategies, but the place characteristics of the crime have more of an effect on the offender’s behavior than do the temporal conditions during which the event occurs. Subsequent analyses indicate that temporal and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, predict whether the offender completes the rape, his reaction to victim resistance, and the level of physical force that he inflicts on the victim, but not whether the victim is forced to commit sexual acts on the offender.

Conclusions

Serial stranger sexual offenders are effective decision-makers who adapt their strategies to the physical environment in which they commit their crimes, but their degree of rationality can vary as some outcomes are more dependent on the context than the offender and his actions.     

组织、领导传销活动罪与诈骗罪的竞合论探析--以利用保健食品传销犯罪为角度

利用保健食品传销犯罪是新型的传销犯罪,其在骗取财物的过程中涉及对保健食品的虚假宣传,其构成要件要素又与诈骗罪具有交叉部分,而"两高一部"的《关于办理组织领导传销活动刑事案件适用法律若干问题的意见》并未对组织、领导传销活动罪与诈骗罪之间的罪数讨论予以明示,有必要通过二罪理论上的竞合论争议,比较日本刑法的竞合论规定,结合我国竞合论的规定,明示利用保健食品传销犯罪与诈骗罪的交叉部分的罪名适用关系。     

The impact of local alcohol ordinances on official crime rates: The case of Tennessee

Past research has shown a strong link between alcohol and crime. In this study we examine the relationship between local alcohol ordinances and UCR crime rates for cities within the state of Tennessee. To assess adequately the actual relationship between crime and our alcohol availability measures, we included in the analysis a number of socioeconomic and demographic variables commonly associated with high crime rates. The results of this study suggest strongly that race, poverty, population size, and age composition provide the “best explanation” for variations in the level of criminal activity. Our findings support the hypothesis that social disorganization caused by numerous factors (especially racial and economic inequality) contribute strongly to a community's crime rate. The alcohol-related variables contribute to our understanding of the crime problem, but their impact is secondary and probably ancillary, once we have accounted for the influence of our demographic and socioeconomic variables.