解读《朝日平壤宣言》后的朝日关系

《朝日平壤宣言》的签署取得了重要成果，但是宣言签署后，因朝鲜公开承认“浓缩铀”计划及公开承认“绑架问题”，使朝日关系再次陷入紧张僵持的局面。但是双方对《朝日平壤宣言》所体现出来的对话解决问题的基本精神依然认同。绑架问题依然是日本对朝关系的首要课题，对话解决悬案问题依然是日本对朝政策的主流，早日实现邦交正常化仍是其基本的对朝政策。     

朝日关系与东北亚形势

日本首相小泉首次访朝,双方在一系列重大难题上达成原则性的一致,可谓两国关系的历史性突破。最近,由于受两国国内外各种问题和因素的制约,两国关系未能在已有的基础上继续向前,从而出现了不确定的局面。目前,朝美关系也未见切实改善的前景。国际社会认为,由于朝日关系的发展牵动着包括朝、日、韩、中、俄、美等国在内的许多双边和多边关系的发展和互动,因而热切期望朝日关系进一步改善以及在将来实现两国关系正常化,以促进消除冷战阴影,维护朝鲜半岛和整个东北亚地区的和平与稳定。     

透视日本小泉首相的第2次访朝

日本首相小泉闪电般地进行第 2次访朝 ,虽然有“内病外治”的作秀成分 ,未必会有助于其国内困境的解决 ,但是在打破朝日关系僵局、解决长期困扰双方的“绑架问题”方面 ,还是取得了积极的成果。同时 ,在重新确认《朝日平壤宣言》精神、重开朝日邦交正常化谈判方面 ,也并非乏善可陈。     

朝日“绑架问题”上的日本外交方针分析

朝日"绑架问题"历经小泉内阁、安倍内阁、福田内阁,已成为朝日邦交正常化的重大悬案之一。针对日益僵化的"绑架问题",小泉内阁以"绑架问题不解决,日朝邦交不会正常化"为基本原则,回避历史问题,企图完全以"对话和压力"的外交方针来解决"绑架问题"。而安倍内阁则继承和"发扬"小泉的上述方针,一味地强调以"压力"来解决"绑架问题"。福田当选日本首相以后,多次表示一揽子解决日朝间的历史问题和"绑架问题"的意愿。     

朝鲜推行全方位外交的障碍因素分析

2000年，朝鲜的全方位外交政策一度风光，取得丰硕成果。进入2001年，朝鲜外交步伐明显减速，其全方位外交政策的推行进入关键阶段。小布什就任美国总统后，朝美关系的改善变得遥不可及；日本首相小泉纯一郎的强硬外交也使朝日关系正常化举步维艰；朝鲜发展同欧盟关系难有具体成果；朝俄之间尽管实现了两国首脑互访，但双边关系的发展有其局限性；金正日委员长访韩至今仍未成行，朝韩关系很不稳定。朝鲜推行全方位外交政策的道路依然障碍重重。     

朝日首脑会谈及其影响

2002年9月17日，日本首相小泉纯一郎与朝鲜领导人金正日在平壤进行了会谈。这是日本历史上第一位首相对朝进行访问。两国领导人就历史问题、日本失踪人员问题及两国建交问题进行了会谈。从日朝首脑会谈的内容及涉及的问题看，实现关系正常化尚需时间，但从长远看，日朝实现关系正常化是历史发展的必然趋势。     

战后日朝关系的发展和演变

战后50多年来，日朝关系一直处于没有建交的非正常状态，1965年《日韩关系条约》签订，本政府只承认韩国为朝鲜半岛唯一的合法政府，实际上关闭了日朝建交的大门。1980年代以后，随着东北亚地区国际关系的缓和，日朝关系也逐渐解冻，终于开始了关系正常化的谈判。但由于双方立场相距过大，虽然经过多次会谈，均未能达成任何协议即告终止。1999年12月，中断了7年之后的日朝会谈终于恢复。进入21世纪，日本首相两次访朝，日朝关系有所进展。但日朝关系能否迅速走向正常化，在相当大的程度上还要受到美朝关系和东北亚地区国际关系的制约。     

俄罗斯的"欧洲选择"分析

苏联解体后,俄罗斯作出了"欧洲选择",将"融入欧洲"作为国家的发展方向.虽然俄罗斯对"回归欧洲"充满渴望,也付出了努力,但总体来看"欧洲选择"是失败的,在事关俄罗斯利益的重大问题上欧盟并没有与俄罗斯相向而行,俄罗斯也未能实现"融入欧洲"的目标.乌克兰危机的爆发终止了俄罗斯"回归欧洲"之路.希望、失望、争执、对抗一直伴随着俄欧关系发展的始终.俄罗斯认为,欧盟应承担俄欧关系恶化的主要责任,欧盟在东扩过程中无视俄罗斯利益、双方关系中置俄罗斯于不平等地位、在俄罗斯与欧洲之间人为制造分界线、排挤孤立俄罗斯、在独联体地区制造政治动荡等等,都是导致俄欧关系发展不畅的重要因素.目前俄欧关系处于冷战结束以来的最低水平,尚不具备实现正常化的条件,俄罗斯与欧盟握手言欢仍路途遥远.     

日朝关系的发展及其意义

日朝关系是东北亚地区国际关系中的重要方面之一,在战后半个世纪的历史进程中,日朝关系发展历程经过了“五起四落”。值此新世纪到来之际,与朝鲜半岛北南和平统一进程加速化相伴随,日本虽然有可能加大对朝关系正常化的谈判力度,但若不把以往对朝政策做一番战略调整,其对朝关系发展仍很难摆脱“起起伏伏”的局面,其邦交正常化目标亦很难尽快实现。     

泰国:2017年回顾与2018年展望

2017年,泰国新宪法经国王拉玛十世签署正式颁布实施,“大米典押案”宣判,前总理英拉潜逃出境,大选未能如期举行,政治社会总体稳定、局部动荡;经济增幅为4.0％,外贸、引资、汽车销量和入境游持续增长,中泰高铁合作项目正式动工,电商市场迅速发展;外交上,泰中关系升温,泰美关系正常化,泰日关系稳固,与东盟国家保持传统关系,与欧洲国家恢复正常关系.2018年,泰国军政府是否能够顺利举行大选仍是个变数,经济有望实现4.2％以上的增长,对外关系将逐渐好转.     

Inter-Korean relations and the roles of the US and of the EU

The North Korean nuclear standoff has escalated since North Korea let slip that it was developing nuclear weapons while James Kelly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was visiting Pyongyang in October 2002. The Bush administration has acknowledged that the United States will not discount a preemptive military strike on the suspected nuclear development facilities, and North Korea has stood firm against any pressure to halt its nuclear development from the international community. Dialogue and meetings for international cooperation among the major countries concerned, including Korea, the U.S., Japan and China, have been activated to resolve the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, especially after the U.S. pronounced an end to its war against Iraq in early May of this year. In the middle of the rapidly changing situation on the Korean peninsula, the inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation initiated by the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung administration and followed by the Roh Moo-hyun administrations Policy of Peace and Prosperity are not separable from the nuclear situation. This paper follows recent developments of inter-Korean relations, illustrates South Koreas stance on the issue and suggests the EUs role on the nuclear issue. This is a revised version of the paper presented at the Asia-EU Journalists Seminar organized by the Asia Europe Foundation and the Korea Press Foundation (KPF), held in Brussels, Belgium, May 22 2003. Financial support from the KPF is gratefully acknowledged.     

美苏政治文化差异与冷战起源

一国政治文化对国家对外决策有不可忽视的影响。美苏政治文化中相互冲突的部分对两国战后初期外交决策以及冷战爆发产生重要影响，国家间的政治文化沟通对处理国家间相互关系具有重要意义。     

Strengthen the Communication Among the Youth and Enhance the Mutual Understanding and Trust

AttheinvitationoftheInternationalInitiativesofChangeAssociationofJapanIICAJIaccompa-niedMr.LiYangCouncilMemberofChineseAs-sociationforInternationalUnderstandingCAFIUonthevisittoJapanfromJune10to18andat-tendedthe27thInternationalConferenceoftheInitiativeofChangeinOdawara.DuringourstaythereweseparatelymetwithTutomuHataAdvi-sortotheIICAJandformerPrimeMinisterofJapanSomaYukikaHonoraryPresidentofIICAJToruHashimotoPresidentofIICAJandAdvisortotheJapanMizuhoFinancialGroupandD…     

The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible

In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only slowed down the process of rapprochement, but also increased EU concern. At a time when cooperation becomes a necessity rather than a choice, Libya is now down-spiralling into implosion at the levels of security, bureaucracy and economy, to the point where it cannot absorb the offers being made.     

海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败

国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。     

抗击经济衰退：象和龙

由美国引发的经济危机已经席卷全球,无论是西方发达国家和地区如日本、欧盟,还是发展中国家如印度、中国,都已笼罩在全球经济衰退的阴影中。本文探讨作为正在崛起的亚洲大国——印度和中国,应采取怎样的措施遏制全球经济危机对本国经济造成更严重的伤害,以及印中两国如何借鉴对方在应对经济危机过程中采取的有效政策以尽快重新走上经济发展的正轨。     

China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not Chinais a responsible member of the organization and how compliantChina is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficultiesfaced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying toadjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theoryof compliance in international relations from the perspectivesof neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism,and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanismsused to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the UnitedStates and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanismand the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result ismixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China hasbeen but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has triedhard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, thoughmuch remains to be done. The most severe tests will come inthe next few years when China's financial and service sectorswill have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.     

Caught between Europe and the orient: Israel and the EMP

As the case of Transnistria illustrates, the politico-economic arrangements of de facto states are marked by a tendency to sacrifice the economy to political objectives. Despite non-recognition and limited local resources, these entities manage to make use of their ambiguous status and external support to sustain their claims to statehood. Yet, the priority of these claims over economic development, as well as strategies of survival in general can have unintended effects on unrecognised state-building projects, such as the emergence of a spin-off opposition or public disillusionment.     

Campaign Advertising and the Stimulation and Activation of the Authoritarian Personality

This research examines whether authoritarianism can be stimulated and activated by politicians. The traditional belief is that psychological traits are basically quasipermanent structures that consistently determine behavior, but newer research suggests that these traits can be stimulated. This research tests whether campaigns can stimulate traits with targeted messages. I do so by exposing subjects in an experiment to political television advertising that was designed to stimulate known correlates of authoritarianism, such as fear. The results show that authoritarianism is stimulated in treatment groups that watched advertising designed to invoke threat and the strong-father metaphor and the treatment effect is greater on conservatives. I also show that watching these commercials leads to an activation of authoritarianism that influences its predictive power over support for torture. This suggests that politicians can use emotional appeals to stimulate advantageous personality traits, and that these ads also influence the public's attitudes through activation.     

当代俄罗斯贫富分化的危机与超越

俄罗斯由转型而引发的贫富差距问题,对社会造成了许多负面影响,比如,道德规范下降,公民淡漠政治,公信力大大降低等。现如今,俄罗斯的贫富差距并没有消除,但整个社会形势却不断好转,人民的乐观情绪不断增长,国家也在稳定中不断走向复兴。从这些现实状况来看,俄罗斯社会似乎摆脱了贫富分化的纠结,已然超越到了另一个发展阶段。俄罗斯转型期的公共政策、阶层分化模式、阶层状况等一些措施与现实,不失为解释这两种情势变换更迭的有效途径。