A rational-voter explanation of the cost of ruling

It is well known that the average government loses votes — the so-called cost of ruling. We show that the loss can be explained as a perfectly rational demand for change in a median voter model, once the model is amended to let the two parties be visibly different.     

The compensation hypothesis goes east: FDI and welfare state demand in postcommunist countries

While existing research provides evidence that globalisation sparks citizen demand for the welfare state in wealthy Western democracies, less is known about how globalisation affects public demand for welfare elsewhere. This study explores the link between globalisation and welfare preferences in postcommunist countries by examining workers at multinational corporations (MNCs). These workers have previously been found to have lower levels of job security, even in Western Europe. Additionally, in the postcommunist context, MNC employment also frequently offers better opportunities than other available jobs. This combination of risk and benefit creates higher demand for social insurance (such as unemployment insurance) because MNC workers have both higher job insecurity and higher costs of job loss (if the benefits of MNC employment make it difficult to find an equally good job). Original survey data from Ukraine shows that MNC workers experience greater insecurity and are paid more than other workers. They also express preferences for more expansive welfare programmes, prioritising those related to labour market insurance. This pattern of MNC workers’ experience and preferences is confirmed in cross-national survey data from 30 peripheral economies, demonstrating that the compensation hypothesis has wider application than previously shown.     

The anxiety of love: an analysis of recent Chinese popular music

Love between two sexes is a time-honored but commonplace theme in songs that it does not seem to demand scholarly attention. Yet, the manner in which sexual love is expressed in Chinese songs today carries with it the deep stigma of the sea change that has been taking place in recent Chinese culture. The present paper discovers that, as a result of drastic changes in Chinese people’s attitude toward sexual relations, there has been a greater anxiety in songs intended for men to sing, as well as those for women, and manifestations of the anxiety of the loss of love are gender-specific. In “male songs,” paradoxically, the anxiety has been more voiced and apparently with more pain, which is one of the key indicators of the profound change in sexual attitudes in Chinese society.     

An evaluation of some microeconomic consequences of a future oil embargo

In order to develop an energy policy designed to help insulate the economy against the effects of a future oil embargo, projections of the effects of an embargo are necessary. Past work has concentrated on the aggregate output loss from an embargo, but has not carefully considered other important effects. This paper examines two important effects. First, the most heavily damaged sectors are identified, showing the automobile industry to have by far the most significant damage. Second, a large part of the economic damage done by an embargo is shown to be due to a decline in the demand for output rather than as a direct consequence of reduced petroleum supplies. This finding is significant for two related policy reasons. First, it implies that even if policy makers could replace all of the embargoed oil, major economic disruptions could still result from an embargo. Second, policies designed to minimize demand disruptions can achieve significant benefits, at low cost, and should have a high priority in policy matters pertaining to embargoes.Financial support for this work was received from the Department of Energy, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the DOE. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Energy.     

The viability of the thrift industry

Abstract

This paper argues that many widely referenced studies on the cost effectiveness of alternative assistance programs were conducted at a time when rental housing markets were depressed. Recent increases in rent appear to have reduced the apparent cost advantage that demand‐side subsidies hold over supply‐side interventions. In addition, the nonsubsidized poor increasingly must compete for a dwindling supply of low‐cost privately owned housing. Housing vouchers or similar demand subsidies may be appropriate in some contexts, but economic theory and recent empirical analysis suggest that such subsidies are “not the best at all times and under all situations.” Rather, the “best policy” depends on program targeting and the nature and extent of program‐induced price increases and externality effects. Since funding limitations currently block the creation of an entitlement housing assistance program, housing policy must balance the often competing goals of expanding the ability of participating low‐income households to pay for decent housing while at the same time working to limit the adverse effects that rent increases and the loss of low‐cost nonsubsidized stock have on households falling outside of the housing assistance safety net.     

Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Odisha

The growing demand for electricity has put pressure on generation of electricity based on fossil fuel, resulting in emission of carbon dioxide. In order to design policy for demand side management, proper knowledge on determinants of electricity demand as well as prediction of future demand is required. However, study on estimation and forecasting of residential demand in developing countries like India has received less attention. This study is the first attempt to estimate and forecast residential electricity demand in the state of Odisha, which is the pioneer of electricity reform in India. It employs ARDL model to estimate residential electricity demand; while ARIMA, VAR and VEC models are employed to forecast future demand. The results show that income and price of electricity are significant determinants of residential electricity demand. The higher price elasticity compared to income elasticity reveals that price could be used as an effective instrument for demand side management. The forecast results show that VAR has the lowest error, which predicts per capita residential electricity demand to be double by 2030–31. This would help the policy makers to plan for demand side management and electricity generation so as to avoid shortage of electricity supply.     

需求溢出理论与公共管理学基础理论的构建

需求溢出理论的提出,意在弥补公共管理学基础理论薄弱的问题,尤其是弥补当前公共管理的流行理论在政府职能定位方面的不足。需求溢出理论主张:个人需求超出其本人及家庭的满足能力即为需求溢出,个人的需求溢出生成社会的公共事务,解决个人的需求溢出问题是公共管理的终极使命;当合法的个人需求之间发生冲突,具有压倒性正义优势因而需要由公共权力来维护的一方的需求溢出,即为公共利益。由此,需求溢出理论以个人的需求溢出为标尺,对政府的职能定位提出了比其他理论更为明确的方向性指导,因而更宜作为公共管理学的基础理论。     

房价“双轨制”的双重效应与政策取向

房价"双轨制"是指目前我国住房市场并存的两种价格制度体系,房价"双轨制"具有利弊双重效应:适应"渐进式"改革和不完备市场体系的需要,符合现阶段多元化社会结构解决和改善住房条件的需求,有利于调动房地产商的积极性,明确政府的责任,促进社会的和谐稳定。但房价"双轨制"与商品的本质和市场经济原则相矛盾,在运行操作上有很大的难度,容易造成社会福利的流失和形成新的社会不公平。房价"双轨制"的政策取向是:在供需矛盾突出的体制过渡时期不能取消而且要继续强化房价"双轨制",促进住房公平,加大保障性住房建设力度,增加住房的有效供给。     

Efficient allocation and unanimous consent with incomplete demand disclosures?

The following hypothesis about behavior in collective economic decisions is proposed. Individuals disclose latent demands accurately provided that doing so results in no appreciable loss of opportunity for material gain. On the foundation of this behavioral hypothesis, the following procedure is suggested. A collective good intermediary (CGI) solicits reports about latent demand schedules from a sample whose replies will not appreciably affect their own cost-shares. The CGI uses their reports to estimate the statically efficient program size and tax-shares adequate to finance it. The CGI then presents a proposal to the entire pertinent population on a this-or-nothing basis. If approved nearly uanimously, the proposal is adopted. It is concluded that if a program is worth adopting, i.e., generates a positive, aggregate net benefit, complete disclosure by all will not be needed to finance it. Most participants may, therefore, not need to estimate, even for themselves, their maximum personal benefit. The task of setting cost-shares to attain nearly unanimous consent will be easier the greater the aggregate gain from the efficient choice.     

Income Inequality and Demand for Redistribution: A Multilevel Analysis of European Public Opinion

This article employs multilevel modeling to assess the importance of income inequality on the demand for redistribution in a sample of 22 European countries. According to standard political economy models of redistribution – notably the Meltzer-Richard model – inequality and demand for redistribution should be positively linked. However, existing empirical research has disputed this claim. The main advantages of this article is that demand for redistribution is measured at the individual level, and that the relevant interaction between inequality and own income is considered. The main findings are that inequality is positively associated with demand for redistribution, and that the median income person is sensitive to the level of inequality. These findings are robust to the inclusion of a range of relevant control variables. The results are relevant in relation to the increase in inequalities in many European countries, and especially relevant to the current debate about the importance of directly observable differences in public preferences for social policy outcomes.     

Policy Tool Interactions and the Adoption of State Renewable Portfolio Standards

We contribute to extant policy theory by focusing on interrelationships between existing policies and innovation. In particular, we call attention to the link between supply‐side incentives and demand‐side innovation, which has not been systematically investigated. Our research expectation is that supply‐side policies generally will complement demand‐side policy, leading to a positive impact on the adoption of demand‐side innovations. We test this idea by examining adoptions of renewable portfolio standards (RPS), a demand‐pull approach targeted to renewable energy generation by utilities, in the American states from 1991 to 2008. Event history models show that an index of supply‐side financial incentives has a strong positive influence on RPS adoption. We do not find support for the hypothesis that this effect is contingent on in‐state carbon‐based energy generation. In conclusion, we argue that the study of policy adoption needs to give greater consideration to the interrelationships among policy instruments.     

The Next 100 Years? Reflections on the Future of Intelligence

Abstract

A growing interest in the history of intelligence might be a way to learn more about not only the past, but also the dynamics shaping the future of intelligence. Intelligence is an evolving activity and the twentieth-century experience must be regarded as a phase in an ongoing transformation of its institutions, methods and roles. At least six fundamental processes can be identified as relevant to this re-shaping of intelligence in long perspective; the decreasing hegemony of national intelligence, the rise of new fields of knowledge with intelligence relevance, the diminishing relative importance of exclusive sources and methods, the rise of new actors producing and providing intelligence, the loss of an intellectual monopoly in a competitive knowledge environment and finally an increasing demand for reliable assessments and verification in a fragmented world of information.     

Beliefs and errors in voting choices: A restatement of the theory of fiscal illusion

This paper reformulates the theory of fiscal illusion to make it more compatible with the median-voter model of collective choice. It emphasizes the requirement that misperceptions about marginal tax-costs and benefits must be permanent to have any significant effect on the level of public expenditures. The Lancaster-Becker model of consumer demand is then used to demonstrate the peculiar effects of permanent misperceptions on consumer demand. It can be shown, for example, that other things being the same, a Republican who underestimates continuously the marginal benefits of public activities may demand more public goods than a Democrat who overestimates those same benefits in a permanent fashion.     

The Demand for Referendum: When Does It Arise and when Does It Succeed?*

The purpose of this article is to try to discern certain general features in the origins of the demands for referenda, and why these demands succeed or fail. A distinction is drawn between (a) the demand for a referendum on a certain issue and (b) the demand to amend the constitution to allow for referenda of one form or other. (a) Nation-wide referenda are rare almost everywhere, but demands for referenda arise more frequently. The article argues there are often regularities in the way these demands arise. A request for a referendum on one specific issue can be regarded as a minority weapon. Those who have had their standpoint voted down demand a referendum. If their demand is to succeed, two conditions are important: parties which are split and strong commitment on the part of the voters. To understand why an original minority weapon can get support from the majority, two functions of the demand for referendum are central: the function as a mediation device and as a lightning rod. (b) Concerning interest in the introduction of the referendum as a more or less regular principle of government, we find that referendum enthusiasts often share a similar ideology or view of society. The most central catchword here is antiparty sentiment.     

The impact of interest rate on the demand for credit in Ghana

This article investigates the impact of financial liberalization on the demand for credit in Ghana. It contributes by making suggestions pertaining to questions on the effectiveness of interest rate liberalization in driving private sector demand for credit both in the short and the long‐run, as well as the speed of adjustments to equilibrium after the implementation of the financial liberalization programme. The study results indicate that interest rate has no significant impact on the demand for credit both in the short‐run and long‐run. Moreover, inflation has a negative significant effect on the demand for credit in the short‐run. The results also suggest that about 66% of disequilibrium from the preceding year is corrected in the current year. However, these findings seem to indicates that the financial market in Ghana is not fully competitive. The oligopolistic and noncompetitive financial system may be attributable to the extreme minimum capital requirement and the emerging consolidation of commercial banks through government takeovers as well as the various credit rationing practices by banks aimed at reducing the risk of adverse selection and insolvency.     

社会保障体系完善与社会经济可持续发展——基于城乡差异和区域差距视角的统计分析

社会经济的又好又快发展,是我国社会保障体系可持续发展的坚实依托。而消费需求不足则是长期制约我国经济持续健康发展的瓶颈之一,在当前国际金融市场动荡、外部需求下降的情形下,扩大内需就显得更加紧迫。本文从定量的角度开展我国社会保障支出水平与社会保障可持续发展影响因素的关联序分析,认为确保社会保障支出可持续发展是实现我国经济可持续发展的前提;从城乡差异和区域差异的视角,通过实证分析,探讨城乡社会保障水平与扩大内需之间的关系,考察了社会保障支出项目对居民消费作用的城乡差异和区域差距。在此基础上提出,改善社会保障水平区域不平衡现状、建立覆盖城乡的全国社会保障体系、实施全国统一的社会保险关系转续办法和建立多部门协同管理的社会保障统计体系,将是我国扩大内需、促进经济稳定增长的长期战略。     

Keynes and Myself

The heart of the Keynesian message is the need for demand management by monetary and fiscal means to counteract seriously deficient demand. The unemployment of the 1980s had at its heart union monopoly and was accompanied initially by double digit inflation. Keynesian demand management would have made no sense. The situation is now totally different when the credit crunch has brought on genuine demand deficiency. But Keynes left unsolved the role, if any of the budget balance. It is not good enough to say that ‘growth’ will take care of that too.     

试论外来文化中国化何以可能——以佛教和基督教为例

通过对基督教和佛教中国化的历史考察可以发现：外来文化本身能否认同和接纳中国本土文化的基本精神是其能否实现中国化的内在根源；能否满足中国社会统治阶级的需要和中国民众的需要尤其是精神的需要，是外来文化能否存在和传播的现实基础；外来文化在保持基本精神的同时，必须与中国传统文化相结合，适应中国社会的现实状况和需要，才能真正实现中国化，并成为中国文化的重要组成部分。     

Public housing authorities: Determining an appropriate role in a national preservation strategy

Abstract

This paper examines the obstacles and issues involved in developing a comprehensive preservation agenda for public housing and explores the capacity of public housing authorities (PHAs) to meet the current and future demand for affordable housing. The paper discusses the current challenges facing the public housing program and PHAs and examines the roles and functions PHAs can assume in the current preservation and affordable housing crisis. Six specific roles for PHAs are included: resolving the equity/community dilemma, improving management, articulating modernization needs and carrying out modernization programs, preventing the loss of public housing units through sales and demolition, assuming management of privately owned subsidized housing, and developing new public housing. Although there is also much potential in nonprofits as providers of low‐income housing, they must be joined by PHAs in a comprehensive low‐income housing production and preservation strategy.     

Distrust in Government Leaders,Demand for Leadership Change,and Preference for Popular Elections in Rural China

This paper examines the relationship between distrust in incumbent government leaders and demand for systemic changes in rural China. It finds that individuals who distrust government leaders’ commitment to the public interest have both stronger demand for leadership change and stronger preference for popular elections. It argues that distrust in government leaders may have enhanced the demand for leadership change, which in turn may have reinforced the preference for elections. It further argues that distrust in incumbent leaders has in effect induced a demand for systemic changes, as introducing popular election of government leaders would require a major constitutional amendment. The paper suggests that two distinctive mechanisms may be at work in determining whether distrust in current government authorities induces preference for systemic changes. Whether citizens can engineer leadership change through existing channels influences the generation of idealistic wishes for a better political system. Perceived availability of better and viable alternatives affects whether idealistic wishes become a practical preference.