The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

The predictive validity of youth violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the findings of a systematic search of published literature which reports the predictive validity of violence risk assessment tools specifically designed for use with youth. A total of 38 studies, involving 9,307 participants, reported data for six different tools; the most common of which were the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI. Each of the tools demonstrated at least moderate levels of predictive validity, with the predictive validity of several newer assessment tools yet to be established. The results provide an up-to-date overview of the state of knowledge in an area in which practitioners make choices about which tools to use on an almost daily basis. It is important that practitioners are aware of the strength of evidence that is available to support the choice of violence risk assessment tools and the interpretation of results.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.     

The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: an 18-year follow-up

Abstract

This study examined sex offender risk and treatment change based on a battery of psychometric assessment measures administered to 267 treated adult Canadian federal sex offenders followed up an average 18 years post release. Several significant pre–post changes that were frequently moderate in magnitude (d>.50) were observed across these measures. A factor analysis of the psychometric battery generated three broad need domains consistent with the extant literature that were labelled Socioemotional Functioning, Anger/Hostility, and Misogynist Attitudes. The three need domains and a Need Total, created by their summation, converged with the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in conceptually meaningful ways and predicted sexual and violent recidivism to varying degrees. Raw measurements of change obtained from pre-to posttreatment frequently bore weak and non-significant relationships to outcome. However, after creating standardised residual change scores to control for pre-treatment score, treatment changes in the individual measures, need domains and Need Total improved significantly in their prediction of reductions in general and sexual violence.     

Incidents of discrimination and risk for delinquency: A longitudinal test of strain theory with an African American sample

This article examines the relationship between racial discrimination and delinquency. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 700 African American children, we begin by establishing an association between exposure to discrimination and delinquent behavior. Next, we use structural equation modeling to test various hypotheses regarding the emotional and cognitive factors that mediate this association. For boys, the association between discrimination and delinquency is mediated by feelings of anger and depression and by the belief that aggression is a necessary interpersonal tactic. The results are somewhat different for girls. Although anger and depression mediate part of the effect of discrimination on delinquency, discrimination continues to display a small but significant direct effect. The implications of these findings for criminological theory are discussed.     

The relationship between risk,deviance, treatment outcome and sexual reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers completing residential treatment for their offending

Abstract

The study investigated the relationship between static and dynamic risk and reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers who had completed a long-term residential treatment programme for their sexual behaviour problems. Results found that only High/Very High risk men as measured by a static risk assessment schedule (Risk Matrix 2000) were reconvicted for sexual offences (17% over a 2-year period, 42% over a 5-year period). Results also showed that it was generally men who were rated as a high level of dynamic risk that were reconvicted for a sexual offence (13% versus 5% over a 2-year period; 44% versus 10% over a 5-year period). The study also indicated the benefits of residential treatment for such High risk/High Deviance men in that no men who left the programme having responded to treatment had been reconvicted for sexual offences at either follow-up period.     

Assessing psychopathy in young people: the validity of the Psychopathic Checklist: Youth Version for a sample of Spanish offenders

In this study, we assessed the validity of the Psychopathic Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) in a Spanish sample of juvenile court-involved youths. Although recent Anglo-Saxon literature on the topic supports the usefulness of psychopathic traits in adolescent offenders for predicting recidivism and future violence, little is still known about their predictive ability for other cultures. The results of this study suggest that the PCL:YV possesses adequate concurrent criterion-related validity (by using self-reported version of Antisocial Process Screening Device) and retrospective validity (particularly as regards the antisocial, but also the affective–interpersonal domain). Specifically, retrospective validity was confirmed by positive correlations with history of truancy at school, poor parenting, parental delinquency, self-reported antisocial behaviour and illicit behaviour patterns including violent offences recorded in official files; however, careful analysis revealed that the Lifestyle and Antisocial factors are the main dimensions related to past offences, whether violent or otherwise. In conclusion, the PCL:YV is a convenient instrument for assessing psychopathy, and, hence, the risk of criminality, in youths.     

Predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system in individuals with intellectual disability residing in the community

Background. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System (DRAMS) was created to measure dynamic risk in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). Steptoe, Lindsay, Murphy, and Young, (2008) examined the construct validity, reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability and found that the total DRAMS score and sections on mood, antisocial behaviour and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size for offenders with ID residing in high secure settings.     

Biastophilia,raptophilia, and somnophilia: the blurred distinction and comorbidity of sexual paraphilias in a homicidal offender

Somnophilia has previously been recognised by some as a sleep disorder rather than, correctly, as a sexual paraphilic disorder. Correct recognition, however, then necessitates cognisance of the overlap between somnophilia and arousal to rape and sexually violent acts (biastophilia and raptophilia). Such overlap needs to be recognised by clinicians when the ramifications of the comorbidity and intersection of these paraphilias, left unchecked, can stretch as far as homicide.     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

Single-item predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for violent behaviour in outpatient forensic psychiatry

The single-item predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) has not been thoroughly investigated, although this has great clinical relevance for the selection of treatment targets. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether the characteristic START additions of scoring strengths next to vulnerabilities and selecting key items, add incremental predictive validity. Finally, predictive validity has primarily been studied in inpatient settings and included mainly patients with a psychotic disorder. We analysed data from a mixed diagnostic sample of 195 forensic psychiatric outpatients with a 3-month and 170 patients with a 6-month follow-up period, using logistic regression analysis. The occurrence of violent or criminal behaviour was established based on the case manager’s recordings in the patient’s file. Only 5 of the 20 START items were found to have predictive validity: Impulse Control, Attitudes, Material Resources, Rule Adherence and Conduct. The last three were the only items for which incremental predictive validity was found with respect to scoring it as a strength and a vulnerability. Selection of key items did not add to the predictive validity. While possibly having therapeutic significance, the scoring of strength next to vulnerability and the selection of key items, may not be beneficial for risk assessment.     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

The impact of race and extra-legal factors in charging defendants with serious sexual assault: Findings from a five-year study of one Pennsylvania court jurisdiction

Research on sexual assault case processing remains mixed regarding how extra-legal factors such as the racial-ethnic composition of the defendant-victim dyad may impact prosecutorial decision-making. We use data from 2006–2010 in a Pennsylvania county court jurisdiction to examine the victim- and defendant-related factors that influence charging decisions. We also explore how the demographic and offense characteristics influence decisions to prosecute offenders for more serious types of sexual assault. Our findings indicate that the racial composition of the defendant-victim dyad contributed to the prosecutorial decision to charge an offender with a more serious sexual assault, while victim characteristics and use of violence during the offense were not related to seriousness of the charge.     

Utilization of X‐ray Computed Tomography for the Exclusion of a Specific Caliber and Bullet Type in a Living Shooting Victim

A bystander claimed to have been shot by a police officer, and CT scans were used to match qualitative and quantitative aspects of the unremoved bullet with police issued 9 mm Luger ammunition. CT scan methodology proved a valid approach for the measurement of bullets based on calculated measurement capability and correlation with “gold standard” physical measurement by vernier caliper. Measurements regarding length and base diameter, as well as length/diameter ratio, were insufficient to unambiguously identify a specific caliber, or a bullet of specific mass within a caliber class. It was, however, possible to exclude a bullet of specific design and mass with well‐characterized precision and accuracy values under selected CT scan conditions. A 9 mm Luger bullet (115 gr FMJ RN) was excluded from involvement in a shooting based on qualitative bullet shape combined with length, base, and ratio measurements of the bullet in‐situ for the victim.