Betwixt balance and community: America, ASEAN, and the security of Southeast Asia

Realist scholars have long claimed, not incorrectly, that aUS-led balance of power is fundamental to the security and prosperityof Southeast Asia. Yet the Southeast Asian experience has alsobeen one where multilateral security dialogue and regional communityformation figure prominently. In contrast to views which exaggeratethe importance of US preponderance in Southeast Asia whilstdismissing regional multilateral efforts, we offer seven argumentsagainst any undue overstatement of the US contribution to regionalpeace and stability. If anything, a historically ambivalentUS presence contributed to ASEAN's emergence as a mechanismof regional diplomacy. Such ambivalence is no longer feasiblesince 9/11. However, Washington's current engagement in SoutheastAsia should focus on revitalizing regional multilateralism.Our claim is not that the region's security is due to ASEANregionalism rather than US strategic dominance. We argue insteadthat absent the region's fluency with ‘soft’ multilateralism,Southeast Asia's security would probably have been far worse.

SoutheastAsians are more acutely aware of the uncertainties of U.S. policiesthan other regions of the world. They remember the Americanretrenchment in the 1970s followed by a decade of self-doubt.Hence ASEAN countries drew towards each other to seek greaterstrength in self-reliance. They found that together in ASEAN,they could better overcome their problems; but they still needthe United States to balance the strength of the Soviet shipsand aircraft. The renewal of self-confidence in America hasreassured us that America will help maintain the peace and stabilityof the region. It is this balance of power which has enabledthe free market economies to thrive. – Lee Kuan Yew¹

     

Southeast Asia: theory between modernization and tradition

This article inquires into the absence of non-western theorizingupon Southeast Asian international relations by positing thatmodernization and its conceptual kin ‘realism’ haveproclaimed themselves as the mainstream in both theoreticaland empirical research. This is as much a product of postcolonialwestern scholarship as it is of indigenous scholarship in reproducingthe former's frameworks. The effect of this Gramscian hegemonyis to marginalize possibilities for non-western internationaltheory. There are nonetheless flickers of hope for a generic‘Southeast Asian contribution’ to theorizing InternationalRelations, inclusive of non-mainstream western scholarship,if one considers the categories of transitional and hybrid scholarship,in addition to historically informed possibilities of a traditionalSoutheast Asian statehood. Received for publication May 16, 2006. Accepted for publication June 27, 2007.     

The New Economic Bilateralism in Southeast Asia: Region-Convergent or Region-Divergent?

A new pattern of bilateralism is evident in Southeast Asianeconomic diplomacy, and this may be broadly viewed from extra-regionaland intra-regional perspectives. Regarding the former, an increasingnumber of states from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) group have engaged in the Asia-Pacific's new bilateralfree trade agreement project trend, and two ASEAN member states– Singapore and Thailand – have been at its forefront.Regarding the latter dimension, recent developments in intra-ASEANdiplomacy have revealed the emergence of a Singapore–Thailandbilateral axis or alliance on matters of Southeast Asian economicregionalism. These two dimensions of economic bilateralism arestudied in relation to their implications for Southeast Asianor ASEAN-led regionalism. In this context, region-convergentbilateralism can make positive contributions to the developmentof regionalism, whereas region-divergent bilateralism essentiallyundermines regional community-building endeavours. This formsthe conceptual framework for studying the impact of Singaporeand Thailand's active bilateral economic diplomacy upon ASEAN'sown regional economic projects, such as the ASEAN Free TradeArea (AFTA), and also on ASEAN as an organization for fosteringSoutheast Asian economic regionalism generally. It is contendedthat based on both the deeper strategic intentions behind Singapore'sand Thailand's foreign economic policies and wider internationalpolitical economy considerations the region-divergent outcomesare more likely to arise within Southeast Asia from the economicbilateralism they are currently championing.     

Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia

Realists agree that great powers balance the military power of rising powers, but there is little agreement regarding secondary-state responses to rising powers. First, there are differences regarding whether secondary states balance or accommodate rising powers. Second, there are differences among realists regarding the distinct roles of economic and military factors in secondary-state alignment policies. Third, some scholars argue that state alignments are not necessarily determined by realist variables, but can reflect preferences shaped by intentions, historical experiences, or cultural influences. This paper addresses these issues in balance-of-power theory. Its empirical focus is the impact of the rise of China on secondary-state alignments in East Asia. After examining the complex mix of China's military and economic reach in East Asia, it concludes that secondary-state behavior is sensitive to local variation in the great power capabilities and that secondary states tend to accommodate rather than balance rising powers. It further concludes that economic capabilities alone are insufficient to generate accommodation, so that the political-economy literature should reexamine cases of apparent secondary-state accommodation to economic dependency, sensitive to the presence of military vulnerability on the part these secondary states to proximate great powers. These conclusions suggest that there is nothing sui generis or culturally-determined in East Asian international politics and that realism can explain alignment behavior among East Asian states as well as it does among European states. Research on East Asia's response to China's rise that is sensitive to intra-regional variations in U.S. and Chinese military and economic capabilities also challenges assumptions of an emerging Chinese regional hegemony or of a costly region-wide U.S.-China competition.     

1997年东南亚金融危机以来新加坡华人企业集团变化发展分析

新加坡是东南亚各国中华族人口占绝大多数的国家,华人经济在新加坡经济发展过程中一直有着重要的地位。本文以1997年东南亚金融危机以来新加坡华人企业集团变化发展为主线,对1997~2008年期间新加坡华人企业集团变化和发展状况及特点进行分析。     

Teaching international relations in Southeast Asia: historical memory, academic context, and politics - an introduction

The teaching of international relations (IR) at universitiesin Southeast Asia plays a role in the production of knowledgeabout the IR of Southeast Asia. As a complement to the scrutinyof published research output, a focus on teaching offers onepathway toward comprehending the constitution of meaning inboth the IR of Southeast Asia and the broader IR discipline.This introduction to a collection of essays on the teachingof IR in Southeast Asia also discusses the potential ways bywhich attention to teaching may uncover the socializing roleof pedagogy. An inquiry into the discipline as it is taughtin the region throws light on how particular national legitimatingmyths are reproduced, the transmission of collective historicalmemories, the dominance of certain schools of internationalthought, and the role of civil society in Southeast Asian knowledgeproduction. Received for publication August 28, 2008. Accepted for publication October 7, 2008.     

东南亚国家产出波动的同周期性研究——基于1980～2008年数据的分析

本文应用H—P滤波法对东南亚国家的经济波动进行周期性分析后发现，东南亚8个国家在1980～2008年间的经济波动基本上具有同周期性波动的特征。从东南亚国家总体上看，东盟一体化进程的提高有利于降低东南亚国家总体的经济波动幅度、提高东南亚国家总体的低谷值，推动东南亚国家的经济发展。     

东南亚金融危机以来新加坡政府中小企业政策分析

中小企业在新加坡经济发展过程中一直扮演着重要的角色。本文以1997年东南亚金融危机以来新加坡政府中小企业政策为主线，通过新加坡政府中小企业政策来透视1997～2008年期间中小企业变化和发展状况。尽管1997年金融危机对新加坡中小企业冲击较大，但由于新加坡政府多举措的大力支持，新加坡中小企业在这10年中都得到较快的恢复并迅速发展，尤其是新加坡中小企业国际化步伐的加快，对中国中小企业走出去具有借鉴意义。     

Recent Sino-ASEAN Cooperation and Its Regional Impact

Since the year 2000, China and the ASEAN countries have promoted mutual trade and investment, strengthened political trust and increased cooperation in terms of economic aid, security, and cultural and educational exchanges. More and more people are realizing that China poses no threat to other countries. With China 's growing influence in ASEAN, the U.S., Japan, and other big powers have increased their strategic investment in Southeast Asia to try to maintain their long-standing strategic advantage in the region. At the same time, the ASEAN countries are trying to play off these big powers against each other to maximize their own advantage.Ma Yanbing is Research Professor of CICIR. Her research interest is Southeast Asian affairs.     

Lessons from Democratic Transitions: Case Studies from Asia

In an era when democratization is stalled or in retreat in many parts of the world, it is important to highlight the successful democratic experience of East and Southeast Asia in recent decades. Five consolidated democracies have emerged since the mid-1980s; only Thailand has seen some backsliding with the 2006 coup. The Asian cases provide insights into several major debates in the democratization literature, including the relative importance of culture, history, economic structure, and the optimal sequencing of political and economic reform. This article reviews these issues, with particular attention to the role of outside powers in underpinning democratization. Ultimately, the Asian cases offer evidence for optimism about the prospects of a Fourth Wave of democratization.     

东南亚华商在香港的经济活动分析

香港一直是东南亚华商投资与从事商贸活动的中心,也是东南亚与中国大陆进行经贸联系的中介,1980年代以来,香港更成为东南亚华人企业投资中国的桥梁。二战后,东南亚华商在香港的投资额越来越大,东南亚华人资本已成为香港经济的重要组成部分。尽管东南亚金融危机对东南亚华商在港企业造成了大冲击,但是大多数华人在港企业还是克服困难,度过了难关。     

论中国人移民东南亚的四次大潮

中国人移民东南亚历史，根据其动力和规模，可分为四次大潮。东南亚为中国海外移民的最主要目的地。中国人大规模移民东南亚始于17世纪，盛于20世纪上半叶，历三波移民高潮。20世纪50年代初期至中国改革开放前，移民东南亚工程中断。随着大陆改革开放及中国与东南亚经济合作的飞速发展，中国人重启移民东南亚热潮。虽然推动不同时期的移民潮各有其不同的国内外因素，但就四次大规模移民潮而言，中国与东南亚的经贸发展和合作都是主要动力之一。随着中国与东南亚经济一体化进程加速，如中国与东南亚的政治关系保持良好，前往东南亚的移民潮仍将继续。与此同时，东南亚各国进入中国的移民也将日益增多，并呈加速之势。     

东盟经济增长的波动及其趋势

近年来,东盟国家经济增长出现了急剧的波动。究其原因,主要是在经济全球化下受到主要发达国家经济周期波动的冲击和金融危机后国内经济转型与结构调整的影响。从东盟经济增长趋势看,各国经济增长速度将放缓而波动有所加大。     

东南亚国家经济发展理论与实践管窥

东南亚国家在不同的经济发展时期受到多种经济理论的影响。东南亚国家经济发展的多样性与不平衡性的客观现实,决定了政府对经济理论的抉择采取现实和务实的做法。实践表明,东南亚国家政府在制定各个时期的经济发展战略、计划与经济政策的过程中,基本上是多种理论的混合运用。     

全球化进程中的东南亚经济新格局

在经济全球化进程中,东南亚经济发展呈现出新的格局和趋势。各国既经历了参与经济全球化所带来的发展机遇,也遭受到经济全球化而引发的巨大冲击。本文探讨了全球化背景下东南亚经济增长的波动性和同步性,从贸易、金融与生产三个基本层面概述了东南亚经济运行的基本特征,并分析了东南亚区域经济一体化的新进展。     

U.S. Policy Towards Southeast Asia

Greater East Asia is expected to be the next theatre for world politics. 1 East Asian cooperation is rapidly developing through the channels of ASEAN Plus Three （APT） and East Asia Summit （EAS）, both driven by ASEAN. Southeast Asia is a region of diverse states and cultures that brings together all the major powers of the Asian-Pacific in a myriad of strategic interests. It is thus an open arena with the potential for a variety of strategic game-playing, options, and uncertain outcomes.2 In recent years, China＇s developing relationship with Southeast Asia has undergone a significant shift as the U.S.＇ distraction elsewhere and neglect of the region have created opportunities for an increased Chinese diplomatic and economic role in Southeast Asia.3 U.S. analysts are concerned about what may lie behind this shift in China-ASEAN relations, how it may affect American interests in the region and how best to react to the changes. Some have expressed concerns that to avoid becoming distanced from the region the U.S. should pay more attention to Southeast Asia, rather than just watching from a distance. This paper attempts to analyze the possible changes of U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia in the current context of East Asian Cooperation and its implications for China.     

全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的影响及危机应对

美国金融危机演变为全球性经济衰退之后，对东南亚的虚拟与实体经济造成了沉重的打击。随着美国金融危机“溢出”效应的加强和全球经济形势的恶化，东南亚经济在2009年面对更为严峻的挑战与考验。东南亚各国在采取各种积极灵活的应对举措的同时，大力推进东盟区域内部的经济整合，加大泛区域甚至跨区域的经济合作，并积极争取外援，以最大限度地减少全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的冲击。     

打造华文教师培养的助推器——论东南亚国家华文教育人才库的创建

21世纪以来,随着世界政治环境的改善和东南亚各国经济社会的不断发展,东南亚国家的华文教育事业取得了长足的进步,但是历史遗留的问题和现实社会状况也给东南亚华文教育事业提出了一些难题。其中提高东南亚地区华文教师培养质量一直是影响东南亚国家华文教育事业发展的关键因素。东南亚国家华文教育人才库的建设和完善可以在华文教育管理部门、华文教师组织、华文教师个体三个层面上对提高华文教师培养质量方面提供相应帮助,促进华文教师培养活动提高效率,更具针对性。     

Realistic yet humanitarian? The comprehensive plan of action and refugee policy in Southeast Asia

The 1989 Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) has recently beendescribed as a successful example of how to manage large protractedrefugee flows. However, this article revisits the circumstancessurrounding the CPA used to resolve the prolonged Indo-Chineserefugee crisis to highlight that part of its development waslinked to the fact that Southeast Asian states refused to engagewith proposed solutions, which did not include repatriationfor the majority of the Indo-Chinese asylum seekers who weredeemed to be ‘non-genuine’¹ (UNGA, 1989a) refugees.This resulted in the CPA often forcibly repatriating ‘non-genuine’refugees, particularly near the end of its program. This articlereviews the CPA in order to assess whether its practices andresults should be repeated. Received for publication September 18, 2006. Accepted for publication October 10, 2007.     

North Korea's foreign economic relations

Many debates about engagement with North Korea hinge on theprecise nature of North Korea's foreign economic relations:whether trade and investment are on commercial or non-commercialterms; the extent of illicit activities, and the changing geographicpatterns of North Korea's trade. This article provides an effortto reconstruct North Korea's foreign economic relations, subordinatingour estimates to the discipline of the balance of payments accountingframework. Among the most salient findings for the debate aboutengagement and sanctions is that North Korea's trade and investmenthave continued to increase despite the onset of the nuclearcrisis and a decline in illicit activities. This growth hasoccurred in part because of the growing weight of China andSouth Korea in trade, aid, and investment. We also find thateconomic relations between North and South Korea have a substantiallygreater non-commercial component than those occurring acrossthe China–North Korea border. Received for publication November 29, 2007. Accepted for publication April 7, 2008.