Colonial Legacy and Foreign Aid: Decomposing the Colonial Bias

It is well-known that donors give considerably more foreign aid to former colonies than to countries lacking past colonial ties. Unfortunately, we know relatively little about why this is the case. For one, there is almost never a theoretical justification for the inclusion of colonial history in statistical models. For the other, the only explicitly made rationale by Bueno de Mesquita and Smith (2009) actually predicts an interpretational problem: colonial history not only increases a former colony’s saliency to the donor, but also has left deep marks on recipients’ social and political institutions today. Both aspects shape how much aid a donor transfers to the recipient. This leaves ambiguous the meaning of the routinely found positive, sizable, and significant coefficient of colonial history on aid flows. We solve the inferential quandary by using a decomposition approach from labor econometrics. Our results show that about 75–100% of the colony effect on foreign aid stems from the greater saliency that donors give to policy concessions from former colonies.     

Beyond the Target State: Foreign Military Intervention and Neighboring State Stability

Despite the abundance of research on the consequences of foreign military intervention for target countries, scant research has been devoted to the possible regional externalities of intervention. This article examines whether large-scale armed operations affect the likelihood of civil conflict onset in countries neighboring the target of intervention. We posit that interventions against the target regime reduce the government's ability to maintain full control over the entire national territory by diminishing its coercive and administrative capacity. This might, in turn, result in safe haven possibilities for neighboring rival groups in the target and facilitate the transnational spread of arms and other illicit activities that increase the risk of civil conflict onset in the contiguous countries. Armed interventions supportive or neutral toward the target state, on the other hand, bolster the government's coercive capacity and mitigate ongoing crises in the target. Such armed intrusions might therefore undermine the likelihood of internal armed conflict in neighboring countries triggered by the factors associated with “bad neighborhoods”: safe haven possibilities, transnational spread of arms, and refugee flows. To substantiate these claims, we use time-series, cross-national data for the 1951–2004 period. Results indicate that hostile interventions increase the probability of civil conflict onset in connected countries while supportive interventions have a regional pacifying effect, reducing the likelihood of domestic unrest in countries neighboring the target state. Neutral interventions, on the other hand, are unlikely to have any discernible effect on regional stability. Further, the primary motive of intervention, whether for humanitarian or other purposes, has no statistically significant impact on the stability of neighboring countries.     

印度对外军事合作的特点及其影响

“冷战”结束后 ,印度积极开展大国外交以期早日实现强国梦想 ,而对外军事合作则发挥着关键的作用。印度利用美俄法等国在争夺南亚影响和军贸合同的斗争 ,全方位地开展了对外军贸和技术转让合作 ,加速实现武器装备现代化和来源多元化 ;加强以军事演习为重点的大国军事合作 ,树立印度世界一流强国形象。同时 ,以开展国际反恐合作为名 ,大力挤压巴基斯坦国际生存空间     

美国军工集团与中美关系

美国军工集团在美国政治特别是对华政策制定中具有举足轻重的作用。冷战结束以来 ,在鼓吹“中国威胁”、游说国会武力助台 ,以及向美国政府兜售反扩散“双重标准”等方面 ,都直接影响着美国政府的对华政策。     

Openness, Welfare Spending, and Inequality in the Developing World

How does government social spending affect inequality in this era of globalization? This article investigates the relationship between openness, government social expenditures (i.e., education, health, and social security and welfare), and income distribution through a time-series cross-sectional panel data set for 35 less developed countries (LDCs) from 1972 to 1996. I compare these findings to the redistributive effects of social spending in 11 advanced industrialized economies. The results show that while all categories of social spending help improve income distribution in richer countries, the effects of social spending are much less favorable in LDCs. Only spending on education in LDCs encourages a more favorable distribution of income in the face of globalization. I argue that the pressures of a more competitive global economy increase incentives for more redistributive education spending, whereas publicly sponsored health programs and, particularly, social security and welfare programs confront greater political lobbying and clientelism.     

Neutrality: A Guide for the Organizational Ombudsperson

Like dispute resolution practitioners in other arenas, organizational ombudspeople face profound challenges in dealing with the issue of neutrality. For ombuds, it is useful to view neutrality as composed of three major dimensions: the definition or terms of reference for the position; its institutional location; and the interactions of the ombuds within the organization. The authors analyze each of these conditions, and offer advice on how ombudspeople can maintain and enhance their neutrality.     

Defense Spending and Economic Growth around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link

In this study, we combine both demand- and supply-side models to investigate the direct and indirect link between defense spending and economic growth. With data from 161 states for 1990–2012, we conduct a comprehensive examination of the defense-growth nexus in the post-Cold War world. Our findings suggest that at the global level, military spending significantly dampens private investment but somewhat reduces unemployment. However, the direct economic effects of defense spending on growth are minimal at best.     

从俄新版《军事学说》看其军事理论的新变化

军事学说作为俄罗斯军事思想的集中体现,代表着俄最高当局最新的军事政策的动向。俄新版《军事学说》的出台,标志着俄军事理论发生了新的重大变化。从发展看,在短期内俄军事理论总体框架难有大的变化。     

Foreign Policy and its People: Transforming the Apartheid Department of Foreign Affairs

Just as apartheid was ending, South Africa’s foreign relations witnessed a massive expansion. However, the Department of Foreign Affairs that was to manage this change found itself undergoing institutional transformations of both personnel and ideology. Studies on South African foreign policy have mostly neglected this transformation, which has had a considerable influence on the content and direction of South African foreign policy. In discussing this seldom-studied issue, this analysis unearths the discussions and debates that took place between various stakeholders to bring about transformation in the Department. In doing so, it argues that two different cultures of diplomacy came together in forming the new Department of Foreign Affairs. These cultures have had a significant impact on the thrust and direction of post-apartheid South Africa foreign policy.     

Pursuing Security in Cyberspace: Strategic and Organizational Challenges

This article argues that the United States government should be acting rapidly to decrease the risks the country is running in cyberspace. While the private sector has a critical part to play in enhancing the country's cybersecurity posture, the government also has a necessary role. It is on the government's role that this article focuses. The article begins by discussing the characteristics of cyberspace. Next, the challenge of cybersecurity is explored through a risk management model that addresses, in turn, threats, vulnerabilities, and potential consequences. Finally, the article lays out some of the characteristics of an effective government response, which help to illuminate a few of the strategic and organizational challenges that will have to be overcome to improve the country's security in the cyber realm.     

Openness, Uncertainty, and Social Spending: Implications for the Globalization— Welfare State Debate

We extend the literature on openness and spending in developing countries arguing that the effect of increasing openness depends on both regime type and the level of openness. Democracies respond to increases in openness by increasing spending while dictatorships respond by decreasing spending. However, the degree to which countries pursue the strategy of choice depends on the level of openness. In autarkic countries, an increase in import competition has more severe consequences for perceptions of job insecurity and dislocation. In response, government management of openness will be more vigorous under these conditions regardless of whether the leader increases or decreases spending. Economic selection mechanisms at work will produce an outcome wherein, at higher levels of openness, further import liberalization has smaller effects on perceptions of job insecurity and dislocation. Hence, both the demand and the supply of government management of openness will be lower.     

COIN Machine: The British Military in Afghanistan

This article assesses the British military effort in Afghanistan looking at three key elements in the campaign: strategy, military operations, and the inter-agency “Comprehensive Approach.” We start by recognising the scale of the challenge that has faced the British: of all the provinces in Afghanistan, Helmand is the toughest to stabilize and secure. We then examine the evolution of all three elements above and find significant improvements in each: a flawed strategy has been corrected; the military have received more resources and become significantly better at COIN; and there is significant progress in the development of the inter-agency approach. In short, what the Americans will find in Helmand is a British COIN machine; a little creaky perhaps, but one that is fit for purpose and getting the job done. We briefly conclude on the prospects and the key to success: namely the development of a more coherent international strategy that accommodates the challenges posed by both Afghanistan and Pakistan.     

厄瓜多尔军人干政的根源和趋势

冷战结束后,拉美国家军人干政现象频繁,其中厄瓜多尔尤为突出。1997--2007年十年间,厄瓜多尔先后更换了七位总统,在三位通过选举上台的总统中,一位被军人政变赶下台,一位是前政变军人当选总统后又遭议会罢免,一位失去军队的支持被议会以“不能胜任”为由罢免,而其他四位总统中有三位是在时任总统下台后以副总统身份在军队的支持下代理总统任期的,     

Partisan Bias in Message Selection: Media Gatekeeping of Party Press Releases

Parties try to shape media coverage in ways that are favorable to them, but what determines whether media outlets pick up and report on party messages? Based on content analyses of 1,496 party press releases and 6,512 media reports from the 2013 Austrian parliamentary election campaign, we show that media coverage of individual party messages is influenced not just by news factors, but also by partisan bias. The media are therefore more likely to report on messages from parties their readers favor. Importantly, this effect is greater rather than weaker when these messages have high news value. These findings have important implications for understanding the media’s role in elections and representative democracies in general.     

美国在全球的主要军事基地及军事设施

二战后,美国的军事存在几乎遍及全球,它在世界各地建立的军事基地曾达5000多个(其中近半数在海外)。冷战结束后,由于国际形势的变化、美国军事战略的调整以及驻在国人民的反对,美军事基地的数量大大减少。目前美海外军事基地374个,分布在140多个国家和地区,驻军30万人;本土基地871个,其中海军基地242个,空军基地384个。     

Military extrication and temporary democracy: the case of Pakistan

Pakistan's 1988 transition to democracy defies most of the conventional wisdom on democratization as well as the bulk of the literature on democratic transitions. This peculiar case can be understood as a case of ‘temporary democracy’, in which democracy emerges as a short-term outcome that is not likely to be sustained. Pakistan's military leaders chose to democratize because of the high short-term costs of repression coupled with the low long-term costs of allowing democracy. The authoritarian elite agreed to allow democratization knowing that the prospects of democratic consolidation were dim. In this sense, the same factors that made the consolidation of Pakistan's democracy unlikely made the transition possible.     

Military frameworks: technological know-how and the legitimization of warfare

It is the elusive target of policymakers, ethicists and military strategists: the target of a ‘just war’. Since the advent of precision-guided munitions in the mid-1970s, commentators claimed that surgical-strike technology would advance the cause of jus in bello, ending the longstanding tension between effective military engagement and morality. Today, many policymakers accept that the ethical dilemmas that arise in the ‘fog of war’ can be negotiated by the technical precision of weaponry. This is, at best, only partially accurate. At worst, its misplaced optimism risks numbing the moral sense of strategists and, just as importantly, the sensibilities of the general populace. We argue that the development of precision guided munitions (PGM), stand-off weaponry and military robotics may force policymakers and strategists to experience new ethical tensions with an unprecedented sensitivity and may require them to make specific policy adjustments. In the move toward more quantitative approaches to political science and international affairs it is often forgotten that military ethics, and the ethics of military technologies, turn on the question of human judgment. We argue that the ethical implications of revolution in military affairs (RMA) are best investigated by way of a detailed discussion of the tenuous relationship between ethical decision-making and the workings of military technology.