KURDISTAN’S REFERENDUM: THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE KURDISH FORCES IN KIRKUK

Less than a month after the Kurdistan independence referendum, the Iraqi Army and units of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) attacked the disputed province of Kirkuk on October, 16, 2017. Unlike most national defence forces, the Kurdish Peshmerga is divided along partisan lines between the two largest parties in Iraqi Kurdistan. This particular area was largely under the control of units affiliated with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which decided to make a strategic withdrawal in the face of superior numbers and firepower. The city was then retaken in short order by forces loyal to Baghdad, as were all other disputed territories previously under Kurdish control. Subsequently, the allegation that the PUK had retreated too easily has been described by the rival Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and others as a betrayal of the Kurdish people by the PUK. This has created two competing post-event perspectives: first, that the Peshmerga forces should have defended Kirkuk to the last man and should not have left their front line trenches; second that the withdrawal of the Peshmerga was a deliberate and rational military reaction to overwhelming opposition. This article critically assesses both perspectives and finds that partisan divisions in the Peshmerga critically undermined the ability of Kurdish forces to defend the disputed areas that they controlled. Instead of serving as motivation of create a unified fighting force, the loss of Kirkuk has only served to deepen those divisions.     

THE ANTI-CORRUPTION STRUGGLE IN XI JINPING’S CHINA: AN ALTERNATIVE POLITICAL NARRATIVE

The fact that the extensive anti-corruption struggle that has consumed China since 2013 is highly political is widely accepted and understood. But the question is precisely what political strategy it is directed at – that of bolstering the position of the current supreme leader, Xi Jinping. Or for the preservation of the Party itself. There is a huge difference between these. The first simply means in effect the replacement of one corruptible elite by another. The second means a titanic struggle to change the Chinese communist party culture of power, and to make it enduring and sustainable.     

IRAN’S STRUGGLE FOR STRATEGIC DOMINANCE IN A POST-ISIS IRAQ

Iran's influence and presence in Iraq have increased significantly in recent years. The collapse of the Saddam's dictatorship in 2003, after the US invasion, served to inflate Iran's influence in Iraq, particularly in the post-ISIS era. In this connection, Iran has used various means and tools to develop its strategy in Iraq. This article argues that Iran's current strategy in Iraq stems from a Realpolitik agenda rather than an ideological one, concerned more with political, economic, and security interests than pursuing revolutionary objectives per se. To this end, Tehran has largely relied on long-established relationships with several pro-Iranian political parties and militia groups. These relationships are often couched in religious ideological terms as a foundation and justification for its future strategy in post-ISIS Iraq. The questions that this paper will address are the following: what was Iran's role in defeating ISIS in Iraq? How has Tehran benefitted from its long-term relationships with Iraqi political parties and militia groups? What are the Iranian sources of power in Iraq and how do they help Iran gain strategic dominance in Iraq?     

IS THIS RUSSIA’S MOMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

Sir Jeremy Greenstock, formerly British permanent representative to the UN, who has had long experience of dealing with Russia in the context of diplomacy, considers whether the current moment of Russian dominance in Syria and the Middle East, combined with the recent general disengagement of the western powers in the region, could be considered as marking the beginning of a general period of Russian hegemony in the Middle East. The article takes into account the global geopolitical situation, the recent history of Russia and the Middle East, the consequences of western intervention in Iraq, and the motivations of the Russian government particularly in view of its recent engagement in Ukraine.     

OF FIRE AND REJUVENATION: IN SEARCH OF THE ‘POST-’ IN ‘POST- APARTHEID’

ABSTRACT

In the novels, Scatter the ashes and go (Ravan 2002) and Rumours (Jacana Media 2013), Mongane Wally Serote depicts post-apartheid through a leitmotif central to which the soldier of the African National Congress military wing, ‘Umkhonto We Sizwe’ (MK), is ostensibly caught in an interrupted odyssey. In Scatter the Ashes and go, this soldier has returned from exile in various Southern African countries to a South Africa that is on the threshold of the post-apartheid era. By contrast, in Rumours, the soldier, having arrived from exile in 1990, then goes away to Mali in search of a solution for his post-traumatic stress disorder. The article imputes these disruptions on to the failure to ‘properly’ mourn the victims of apartheid's extra-judicial killing squads, and goes on to note that, as a result of Serote's attention to the subsequent angst, post-apartheid appears as a continuum of trauma. The discussion then proceeds to posit that the resolutions to these diversions are hinted at in these novels’ elaborate motifs of fire, and proposes that the depictions of this pattern recall how Batswana suture the spiritual, psychological and social fractures consequent upon death – especially the death that occurs unnaturally, and upon the breadwinner's return home from a long absence. The bulk of the exploration pays attention to the nuances of this symbol of fire, recognising it as an integral component of a social rite populated by a dynamic interplay between poetry and music.     

NORTH KOREA’S PERSPECTIVES IN ITS ARGUMENT FOR A PEACE TREATY

In recent years, North Korea’s military provocations have been making the headlines. Beyond its harsh actions and remarks, North Korea persistently mentions ‘peace’ through a demand for a ‘peace treaty’. This may sound paradoxical. However, the origin of the North Korean argument for a peace treaty dates back to the Korean War (1950–53). Since then, North Korea has continued to raise the issue of a peace treaty in a consistent manner and the arguments have displayed similar logic and terminology throughout. It is this consistency and similarity that this article examines: through reviewing North Korea’s original texts, this article attempts to undercover North Korea's perspectives reflected in its argument for a peace treaty.     

INDIA’S DEMONETISATION: MODI’S ‘NUDGE’ TO CHANGE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

This article offers an account of the impact of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw suddenly all Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes from circulation in India with the avowed intent of combatting fraud, tax avoidance and other economic problems. The article assesses the impact from the demonetisation in November to the March 2017 Indian regional elections, where wide-scale victories for Modi’s political party, the BJP, appear to have vindicated his reforms. The article provides an analysis of the political background of the period, as well as looking at the economic and societal impact of the changes, including the way in which the behaviour of Indian citizens has been ‘nudged’ with particular regard to use of banking, transactions, social effects, and payment of tax.     

THE MODERN CREATION OF CHINA’S ‘HISTORIC RIGHTS’ CLAIM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The overlapping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea threaten to spark conflict in East Asia. On several occasions in recent years, disputes over the right to extract oil and gas have caused clashes between Chinese and Southeast Asian vessels. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was agreed by almost all countries in 1982 to try to resolve such disagreements. However, the People's Republic of China is currently trying to claim rights that go beyond UNCLOS and infringe on the UNCLOS-based rights of the other claimants. It deploys two arguments in particular: that the archipelagos in the South China Sea collectively generate rights to maritime resources and that China enjoys ‘historic rights’ in the sea. Neither of these arguments is found within UNCLOS, however. This article explores the origin of these Chinese arguments and finds that the ‘historic rights’ claim can be traced to a single Taiwanese academic writing in the 1990s during a period of intense debate in Taiwan over its relationship with the PRC.     

MYANMAR’S ‘ROHINGYA’ CONFLICT: MISCONCEPTIONS AND COMPLEXITY

Myanmar’s Rohingya conflict is arguably the most sensitive and complex issue facing the country, both in terms of the extent of physical and social destruction, and the impact on Myanmar’s domestic reform and international standing. The scale of human suffering is mind-numbing, the reactions of Aung San Suu Kyi and the Myanmar authorities baffling. However, too much international commentary is reductionist, flattening multiparty and multifaceted sociopolitical dynamics into a simple narrative, which is detrimental to understanding and responding to the conflict. This paper attempts to make sense of some of this complexity, firstly by addressing several common misperceptions of the conflict, then analysing it from a variety of theoretical perspectives. The first misconception is that this conflict is not new, but significant antecedents date back at to at least World War II, if not before. The second is that this conflict is not merely about state oppression of a despised and vulnerable ethno-religious minority, but rather a multipolar conflict with conflict and violence, driven by mutual existential fears and deeply historical grievances on all sides, by at least three key actors. This multipolarity needs to be better understood but outsiders seeking resolution of the conflict. And finally, the third is that this conflict is not primarily about the denial of citizenship and statelessness of the Muslims, as significant as this is, but about definition of the political community in Myanmar and the politics of inclusion/exclusion in governance. Framing this as an ‘intractable conflict’, this paper then examines the drivers of conflict from the perspective of an ethnic security dilemma, a double minority complex, and the political economy, arriving at conclusions about the nature of the conflict and sounding a final warning about a potential moral hazard arising from the way international support is framed and offered.     

AFGHANISTAN: DISCERNING CHINA’S WESTWARD MARCH

This article discerns the shifts in China's engagement with its Western neighbour, Afghanistan. Beijing's approach has gradually shifted from dis-interest to a careful re-calibration of strategy indicating Afghanistan's growing eminence in its strategic calculus. This transposition – dating back to the 1980's – it is argued has been accentuated as the ‘West’ weans itself away from the Afghan theatre. This article demonstrates that Beijing's chequered history of engagement with Kabul has been historically underpinned by its engagement with a plethora of actors identified with ‘political Islam’ who in turn are patronized by its allies in Rawalpindi. Its deepening footprint in contemporary Afghanistan while continuing to be coloured by the prism of Rawalpindi, is informed by a growing sense of unease regarding the perceived adverse imprint that developments across China's Western borders are likely to leave on its domestic security and growing economic interests in the region.     

WHO OWNS INDIA’S HISTORY? A CRITIQUE OF SHASHI THAROOR’S INGLORIOUS EMPIRE

The historiography of Britain's colonial past has always been problematic, shaped by conflicting mythologies about Britain's role as benefactor or exploiter. In the wake of Indian independence in 1947 it was in the interests of India's national identity to present what had gone before as a period of unmitigated oppression challenged by a united people. The consequence was widespread ignorance about the realities of British rule and of the Indian economy prior to and after British rule, exemplified by a current best-seller written by a well-known Indian political figure, Dr Shashi Tharoor, whose main arguments are examined; in particular, his central claim that India was a wealthy nation prior to Britain's colonial intervention reduced to poverty by Britain's ‘depredations’.     

SECULAR QUESTS,NATIONAL OTHERS: REVISITING BANGLADESH’S CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY DEBATES

How do we understand the 15^th amendment of the Bangladeshi Constitution that restored the principle of secularism and simultaneously (re)inscribed certain populations as outside the cultural nation? I approach this question through a close reading of the Constituent Assembly debates of 1972. The precarious state of minorities, I contend, is not a symptom of an incomplete or failed secularism but a feature of the violence inherent to the nation-state form. The Bangladeshi example suggests not only that minority is a profoundly unstable category but that some minorities are visibly critical to national self-fashioning while others must be invisibilized as national others.     

SIACHEN GLACIER,THE FULCRUM OF THE GREAT GAME: COLONEL ‘BULL’ KUMAR’S PERSPECTIVES

This article, written by Prateek Joshi in close collaboration with Colonel Narender “Bull” Kumar, discusses the development of the conflict over the Siachen Glacier between India and Pakistan. It sets out the Siachen Conflict in the broad framework of the Great Game and explains the crucial role of Colonel Narender “Bull” Kumar's Siachen expeditions in rekindling this old flashpoint in High Asia. Based on Colonel Kumar's two expeditions to the Siachen Glacier region, namely the Teram Kangri expedition in 1978 and the Siachen expedition in 1981, it discusses the perspectives regarding the dispute and its relation to reviving a consciousness of the Great Game. The first perspective discusses Colonel Kumar's expeditions in light of the Indo-Pak conflict as these two visits became the precursor to Operation Meghdoot, following which the Indian Army occupied the Siachen Glacier in 1984. The second perspective discusses a crucial cartographic blank which was filled only after Colonel Kumar's Siachen expedition.     

STATE-SOCIETY CONFLICT RADICALIZATION IN HONG KONG: THE RISE OF ‘ANTI-CHINA’ SENTIMENT AND RADICAL LOCALISM

Hong Kong has been facing an increasingly strong “anti-China” sentiment in recent years. More people are worried that existing Mainland-Hong Kong integration actually provides more opportunity for Beijing to exercise political control over Hong Kong, resulting in the loss of local identity. Political parties of the pan-democratic camp, which has been at the forefront of political activism since the 1980s, used to adopt a “milder” approach to oppose intervention from Beijing. However, with more Hong Kong people, especially localists, becoming sceptical towards this tactic, they have resorted to escalating things into “radical” protests or even bloody clashes with the authorities. During Chinese Lunar New Year 2016, a few hundred protesters joined the “Mong Kok Riot” and violently pelted police officers with bricks and glass, leading to more than 120 people being injured. The clashes may on the surface have been about hawker management issues, but, in fact, were fuelled by a growing discontent against the Chinese and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region governments. With more protesters prepared to take more radical actions against the authorities, state-society relations in Hong Kong are likely to enter an unprecedented period of tension.     

RETHINKING AFRICAN SEXUALITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF HIV AND AIDS: THE LIFE AND DEATH DISCOURSE OF ‘MODERNISED POLYGAMY’ IN SUE NYATHI'S THE POLYGAMIST

ABSTRACT

This article is a study of Sue Nyathi's novel The Polygamist as a cultural production dealing with African modern polygamy1 in the context of HIV and AIDS. What is termed ‘modern polygamy’ in this article is a practice where men have several ‘wives’ but not in the African traditional sense, especially within the Shona culture, but in the sense of what is popularised as a ‘small house’ phenomenon. Nyathi's novel is discussed within the following frameworks corresponding to the three distinct parts of the article. In the first part of the discussion, the dichotomy between economic/ social status and ‘modern polygamy’ is explored. The second part of the discussion is a gendered perspective of ‘modern’ polygamy and particularly highlights gender constructions in Nyathi's representation of ‘modern’ polygamy. In the last section, multiple sexual relations and HIV and AIDS are discussed. Significantly, the article demonstrates that imaginative literature is a cultural site that can help us understand human behaviour and HIV and AIDS; particularly in what in religious terms would be referred to as ‘old testament’ polygamy that poses a danger to health and the social fabric in its new form in modern Zimbabwean society.     

A SURVEY OF INDIA’S STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

This paper examines India’s strategic environment in the round. ‘Strategic’ refers here to politico-military aspects of international relations, particularly those with implications for the use or potential use of force in the future. Thus economic factors are considered secondarily, and only insofar as they have diplomatic and military ramifications – as in the case of Chinese infrastructure projects in South Asia, or Indian port-development in Iran. This approach also sets aside what we might call ‘structural’ factors, such as large-scale multilateral trade deals, such as the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and sociological-demographic trends, such as relative population growth rates, also such issues necessarily influence the real and perceived balance of power over the long-run. The paper begins by considering India’s most salient adversary, Pakistan, before looking at the connected issue of Afghanistan and Central Asia. It then turns east to examine another rival, China, followed by the United States, the smaller states of South Asia, and finally the Middle East.     

INDIA’S SOFT POWER DIPLOMACY UNDER THE MODI ADMINISTRATION: BUDDHISM,DIASPORA AND YOGA

This paper examines the Narendra Modi administration's use of three specific soft power assets of India – Buddhism, Diaspora, and Yoga – in diplomacy in service of the country's national interests. It attempts to address the following questions: What is the main purpose of the Modi administration's soft power strategy and the reasons behind the promotion and utilization of these three assets? What are the impediments to India's soft power projection ability? Finally, how can the Modi administration better exploit India's soft power advantages? This paper demonstrates how the Modi administration is making efforts to project India's soft power in the service of larger strategic goals. The use of soft power is designed to complement India's conventional diplomacy, boost its international image, project it as a peaceful rising power, improve relations with other countries, and help attract foreign investment, technology, and tourists in order to promote economic growth and development.     

Süleyman Nazif's ‘Open Letter to Jesus’: An Anti-Christian Polemic in the Early Turkish Republic

The recent ‘cartoon crisis’ caused by European newspapers that published disrespectful caricatures of the prophet Muhammad and offended Muslims all over the world, intensified the discussions on ‘the clash of civilizations’. The present religious quarrels, as distressing as they are, remind us of the uproar Süleyman Nazif (1870–1927), a Muslim Turkish nationalist caused in Turkey in 1924. At that time the bone of contention was not a cartoon but the ‘Open Letter to Jesus’ Nazif published followed by his ‘The Reply of Jesus’ and in both of which he condemned the ‘crusader mentality’ of the Christian world. Being political satires, these letters reflect the views of Süleyman Nazif on the imperialist European powers, show his attempt to defend the newly founded Turkish Republic and illustrate how relations between Turkey and Europe had been deepening the prejudices of Muslims and Christians toward each other. This contribution presents translations of Nazif's two letters, preceded by an overview of Muslim–Christian polemics in the late Ottoman Empire and the early Turkish Republic.