Did Thucydides Believe in Thucydides’ Trap? The History of the Peloponnesian War and Its Relevance to U.S.-China Relations

Journal of Chinese Political Science - The Peloponnesian War, a conflict between the Greek city-states of Athens and Sparta and their respective allies, is held to be a classic example of war...     

The Thucydides Trap and the Korean Peninsula: So why Won’t the USA and China Get Caught?

Journal of Chinese Political Science - “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that it instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable” as Thucydides famously stated. But are we destined...     

Introduction: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?

Journal of Chinese Political Science - Can China rise peacefully? Will China and the United States go to war? As U.S. and China face rising tensions in trade, technology, cyberspace, and the South...     

Graham Allison,Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

Journal of Chinese Political Science -     

‘A Profoundly Disruptive Force’: The CIA,Historiography and the Perils of Globalization

This essay argues that, since 1989, the CIA has been slow to understand the transformative impact of globalization upon its own activities as an intelligence agency. While the CIA spent considerable time examining global trends as part of its work on generalized strategic analysis, its thinking about how globalization would change its own business was less prescient. This problem is explained in terms of the way in which debates over the CIA have been framed historiographically. While intelligence studies as a subject has been successfully integrated into mainstream international history, it has failed to make the same connections with international relations. As a result, those debating how intelligence might change have tended to focus quite narrowly on matters of bureaucratic organization and have taken only limited interest in global politics. This is stark contrast to those working on the subject of terrorism and counter-terrorism, who have engaged in wider debates about world affairs. This needs to change, since the perils of globalization remain the over-arching challenge for the CIA over the next ten years.     

Uncertainty,Shifting Power and Credible Signals in US-China Relations: Why the “Thucydides Trap” Is Real,but Limited

Journal of Chinese Political Science - Is conflict between a rising China and a declining United States inevitable? One of the main purported drivers of the “Thucydides Trap” is that...     

Perils of development funding? The tale of EU Funds and grand corruption in Central and Eastern Europe

Given the unprecedented scale of intergovernmental development funding and the importance of institutional quality for human well‐being, it is imperative to precisely understand the impact of development funds on corruption. In Europe, European Union (EU) Funds provide a boost to public spending in recipient member states while introducing additional corruption controls. We investigate whether EU Funds increase high‐level corruption in the Czech Republic and Hungary in 2009–2012. We analyze newly collected data from over 100,000 public procurement contracts to develop objective corruption risk indicators and link them to agency level data in the public sector. Propensity score matching estimations suggest that EU funds increase corruption risk by up to 34 percent. The negative effects are largely attributable to overly formalistic compliance and EU Funds overriding domestic accountability mechanisms in public organizations entirely dependent on external funds. The policy implications are profound: governments should reduce barriers to market entry by lowering red tape and prevent excessive concentration of funds.     

The West Divided? A Snapshot of Human Rights and Transatlantic Relations at the United Nations

Based mostly on extensive interviews with diplomats and human rights activists, this article questions the claim advanced by the German philosopher Jürgen Habermas that current transatlantic relations can be described in terms of a “Divided West.” We examine the scope and depth of shared understandings between key actors in the United States, Germany, and Canada with regard to the definition, monitoring, and implementation of international human rights and to the reform of human rights-related mechanisms within the broader context of current UN reforms. While we do find differences between US, German, and Canadian perspectives, we argue that the meaning attributed to these differences by diplomats and nongovernmental organizations does not justify the polarizing discourse of the Divided West. In addition, we argue that this discourse tends to obfuscate other important trends in the human rights world such as the growing assertiveness of non-Western powers.     

The Effect of “China Bashing” on Sino-American Relations

Many scholars argue that a sizable share of the news about China published in U.S. newspapers engages in ??China Bashing.?? This paper quantifies the extent of the bashing and examines its effect on Sino-American relations. To measure bashing, I develop an index based on the count of articles in major U.S. newspapers that are related to China and also touch on one or more of the following issues: human rights, Tibet, democracy, child labor, and repression. I repeat this process for newspapers from Australia and New Zealand to net out ??fundamental?? news. To examine the effect of the bashing on Sino-American relations, I use the China-US relations score of Yan et al. (Zhongwai guanxi dingliang yuce, [?????????????; Quantitative Forecasts of China??s Foreign Relations]. Beijing, China: Shijie heshi chubanshe, 2009, Zhongwai guanxi jianlan 1950-2005??Zhongguo yu daguo guanxi dingliang hengliang [??????????1950-2005???й???????????????; China??s Foreign Relations with Major Powers by the Numbers 1950-2005]. Beijing: Gaodeng jiaoyu chubanshe, 2010) and estimate a dynamic transfer model with the constructed bashing index, as well as other control variables. The results indicate that a one-standard-deviation shock in bashing leads to a 0.038 point decline in Yan??s Sino-American index after about four months. The results further imply that the cumulative long-run effect of persistent China bashing is equivalent to about 50?% of the decline in Sino-American relations that followed the U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade on May 7, 1999, the worst shock to Sino-American relations during the sample period, 1990 to 2010.     

Out of Africa? The Gallimberti Affair and Anglo-Italian Relations, 1949–1950

Abstract

The Peace Treaty of 1947 required Italy to renounce sovereignty over its former colonies. Italy and Britain, although NATO allies, bitterly disputed the disposition of Tripolitania and Eritrea. The Italian government sent agents to Tripoli and Asmara to influence local populations in favour of its policy of independence for both regions. The agents ran espionage operations: developing networks of agents, purloining documents, bribing officials, and channeling illegal funds to local political parties. Dr Matteo Gallimberti, the Italian agent in Tripoli, faced accusations that he was embezzling funds. After he committed suicide in January 1950, local British military authorities discovered the full range of his illegal activities. Rather than publicly embarrass the Italian government, British Foreign Office officials coerced concessions from the Italian government in exchange for keeping the potential scandal concealed. The affair demonstrates the fractious nature of Anglo-Italian relations within the framework of the NATO alliance and the respective foreign policy-making elites' differing and self-interested approaches to development and security issues in Africa.     

A New Paradigm? Peter Berger’s “The Two Pluralisms”

The article discusses Peter Berger’s suggestion to replace the secularization theory by a “new paradigm” of a double plurality: the plurality of religions and the plurality (rather: polarity) of the religious and the secular sphere. Whether this constitutes a new paradigm seems just as questionable as whether it is a paradigm at all. After having discussed these two questions the article engages with the basic tenets of Berger’s concept by asking whether the paradigm is convincing. The discussion focusses on Berger’s concept of religion, which puts the secular and the religious sphere in opposition to each other – not only in the society but also in the consciousness of the religious subject.     

Symposium: The Contribution of Laclau’s Discourse Theory to International Relations and International Political EconomyIntroduction

This symposium explores the value of Poststructuralist (or Political) Discourse Theory (PDT) for the analysis of world politics. PDT was originally developed by the late Argentine political theorist Ernesto Laclau, in early works together with Chantal Mouffe, and has entered the margins of International Relations (IR) in recent years, mainly by bringing in poststructuralist concepts that had previously been ignored by the more critical strands of theorizing. Against this background, the introduction (1) discusses the disconnect between PDT and research on world politics, primarily in IR, as well as PDT’s potential contribution, (2) provides an overview of PDT’s central theoretical tenets, in particular with respect to its social ontology and its theoretical concept of change, and (3) introduces the contributions to the symposium.     

The Life and Death of Public Organizations: A Question of Institutional Design?

Why do some public organizations grow old and others die young? Since Herbert Kaufman first posed this question, considerable research has been devoted to answering it. The findings of that research suggest that the design of new public organizations affects, to a significant degree, their survival chances. In this article, we test whether and how “design factors” affected the durability of the so‐called New Deal organizations initiated under FDR's first term. Our findings confirm that design factors do matter, but their effects change over time. We draw out some potential implications for institutional design and sketch a renewed research agenda to determine why some public organizations survive environmental pressure whereas others succumb to it.     

Do the “Dragon’s Gifts” Improve China’s National Image? An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Relations and Public Perceptions of China in Africa

Using a multivariate framework and the most recently available data that include numerous African countries, this investigation has produced the first extensive statistical evaluation of China’s image in Africa based on China’s various economic relations with Africa, including aid, trade, FDI and contracts. We find that China’s economic development assistance, contracts, and to some degree, trade with African countries contribute to a positive image of China in Africa. In addition, we find that people in African countries of a smaller population, poorer livelihood, less open economy, and better governance tend to have positive views of China’s political and economic influence. With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese economic activities in recipient countries have been increasing. The implications of this research shed light on how BRI may be received in the host countries and the likelihood of its success or failure.

     

Was Pius XII “Hitler’s Pope”? The Concordat of 1933

An unfortunate admixture of history-blinding “presentist” bias, exacerbated by today’s sound bite culture, academic overspecialization by scholars and professional historians, and polarizing polemics have led to a consensus regarding the topics of Pius XII’s conduct toward European Jewry during the fascist era. In the wake of the eightieth anniversary of the July 1933 Reichskonkordat between the Vatican and the Third Reich, the moment is timely to revisit the main issues. This essay re-examines the key arguments, introduces overlooked historical evidence, and considers the reports on Pius XII by prewar and wartime contemporaries.     

The Spatial Routines of Daily Life in Low-income Neighbourhoods: Escaping the ‘Local Trap’

Abstract. In recent years, research and policy have become increasingly interested in the relationship between poverty and place. While research has explored the possibility that living in poor places might make people poorer, policy has been drawn to the idea that poverty and social exclusion have their origins in segregated spaces of the poor and excluded. This paper argues that both perspectives fall into the ‘local trap’ of presuming that people living in areas characterised by economic hardship live spatially bounded, neighbourhood-based lives. Drawing on evidence from interviews with 180 people living in six low-income neighbourhoods across the UK, spatial routines of daily life are revealed to extend regularly beyond the residential neighbourhood through processes of engagement, interaction and exchange. This simple but important finding undermines some key presumptions of contemporary policy and points to the need for improvements in the theoretical models underlying analysis of the relationships between poverty and place.     

The Perils of Terrorism: Chinese Whispers,Kevin Bacon and Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia – A review essay

This review examines the scholarship on Islamic terrorism and Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia, arguing that three factors undermine the academic credibility of much of this scholarship. Two points relate to the extensive reliance on interviews with various anonymous ‘security personnel’, or media reports of such statements. Firstly, these sources are in themselves problematic in that they cannot be independently checked or verified. In such circumstances, factual errors undermine the credibility of the argument. Secondly, many researchers using these sources appear to take them at face value, without interrogating their reliability and political motives. The third point relates to the way in which different types of source are utilized and, in particular, how tentative allegations are transmuted into established facts. The review concludes that such studies would benefit from greater contextualization within the domestic politics of the countries in question, rather than their current focus on specific individuals, organizations and networks.     

‘A quite natural and moderate defensive feeling’? The 1945 Hampstead ‘anti-alien’ petition

In October 1945 an ‘anti-alien’ petition was launched in the London Borough of Hampstead that, under the pretext of securing homes for returning ex-servicemen, campaigned for the removal of the district's predominantly Jewish refugee population. By examining the nature of support and opposition to the petition Macklin's local case study provides further evidence to suggest that reactions to those who had fled Nazi terror remained complex. Those who did find sanctuary were characterized by the local press not as ‘deserving victims’, but as the cause of the problems created by their Nazi persecutors. A detailed examination of the rhetoric of the petition movement reveals how this defence of local amenities against ‘alien‘ encroachment can rightfully be defined as ‘antisemitic’. Following an analysis of the role of the local press, Macklin examines its impact on, and interaction with, local and central government policy regarding reconstruction and immigration, which continued to be dominated by the dogma that harmonious race relations necessitated the strict control of immigrants, regardless of the desperation of their plight. He concludes by examining the media's symbiotic relationship with extremist and fascist politics.