A voter-centric explanation of the success of ideological candidates for the U.S. house

In recent years, ideological candidates for the U.S. House have become increasingly successful, to the point where their chances of being elected are indistinguishable from moderates. However, scholars have still not uncovered exactly why this is happening. Using survey data from the American National Election Studies, I find that voter-centric explanations of vote choice – a voter's partisanship, ideology, and presidential approval rating – have increasingly predicted their vote choice in U.S. House elections from 1980 to 2016. Using data on candidate ideology, I find that candidate ideology is an increasingly poor predictor of individual vote choice over time. Original experimental data supports these claims, finding only a small electoral advantage for moderates, compared to ideologues of their own party, and evidence suggesting that, at least among Democrats, ideological candidates are rated more favorably than moderates. Taken together, these results suggest that the increased electoral success of ideological candidates can be attributed to changes in voters' decision calculus, rather than structural or candidate-centric explanations.     

Model specification in the analysis of spatial dependence

The recent surge in studies analysing spatial dependence in political science has gone hand‐in‐hand with increased attention paid to the choice of estimation technique. In comparison, specification choice has been relatively neglected, even though it leads to equally, if not more, serious inference problems. In this article four specification issues are analysed. It is argued that to avoid biased estimates of the spatial effects, researchers need to consider carefully how to model temporal dynamics, common trends and common shocks, as well as how to account for spatial clustering and unobserved spatial heterogeneity. The remaining two specification issues relate to the weighting matrix employed for the creation of spatial effects: whether it should be row‐standardised and what functional form to choose for this matrix. The importance of these specification issues is demonstrated by replicating Hays' model of spatial dependence in international capital tax rate competition. Seemingly small changes to model specification have major impacts on the spatial effect estimates. It is recommended that spatial analysts develop their theories of spatial dependencies further to provide more guidance on the specification of the estimation model. In the absence of sufficiently developed theories, the robustness of results to specification changes needs to be demonstrated.     

Globalization and the Choice of Governing Instruments: The Direct,Indirect, and Opportunity Effects of Internationalization

We propose to shed light on the effect of globalization on the choice of policy tools. Contrary to what is commonly believed, we find that the source of many of the changes in the patterns of instrument choice found in contemporary society lies in the domestic rather than the international arena. To the extent that global factors have had an effect, it is through what we term indirect and opportunity effects rather than direct ones. Further, we argue that traditional command and control instruments are not antithetical to globalization as is evident in their continued, and at times even increasing, use in a variety of settings. We conclude that what is important for policymakers is to ensure that their choice of instruments is consistent with traditional sectoral and national policy styles, with or without globalization.     

Deep Interactions with MRP: Election Turnout and Voting Patterns Among Small Electoral Subgroups

Using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP), we estimate voter turnout and vote choice within deeply interacted subgroups: subsets of the population that are defined by multiple demographic and geographic characteristics. This article lays out the models and statistical procedures we use, along with the steps required to fit the model for the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Though MRP is an increasingly popular method, we improve upon it in numerous ways: deeper levels of covariate interaction, allowing for nonlinearity and nonmonotonicity, accounting for unequal inclusion probabilities that are conveyed in survey weights, postestimation adjustments to turnout and voting levels, and informative multidimensional graphical displays as a form of model checking. We use a series of examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our method, including an illustration of turnout and vote choice as subgroups become increasingly detailed, and an analysis of both vote choice changes and turnout changes from 2004 to 2008.     

Understanding Mission Expansion in the Federal Home Loan Banks: A Return to Behavioral-Choice Theory

Congress established the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) in 1932 to pursue the public purpose of homeownership. Recently, three views of their mission have emerged; one is that their purpose is to help small banks to remain viable. Why did their mission expand in this direction? We argue that mission expansion is a process that is better understood in terms of behavioral choice than public choice. Change began when expert attention was directed to small banks in rural areas and officials innovated within the existing rules to address their needs. Recognizing the FHLBs' usefulness, community bankers sought a more fundamental change in their practice. Responding to the general interest in preserving small banks' viability, legislative entrepreneurs advanced permissive rule changes. These were implemented to different extents in individual FHLBs in response to local needs. The case illustrates the usefulness of the behavioral‐choice paradigm for understanding change in public agencies and suggests legitimacy for mission change and the value of maintaining publicly directed administrative capacity.     

公民社会兴起背景下的政府公信力建设

随着我国公民社会的日益兴起,公众的主体意识、权利意识逐步增强,公共服务需求的内容及层次要求也相应地发生巨大变化,它们构成了政府公信力建设的外部环境与压力。如何将外部环境的要求与压力内化到政府管理制度及成员的行为规范之中,这是我国政府公信力建设需要研究的重要议题。确立以公民和社会为本位的价值理念,构建新型公共治理模式,在政治过程中实现与公民社会良性互动,是提升政府公信力的现实选择。     

Local School Choice Policies in Sweden

More choice for parents and students is a major recent change in school policies in most Western countries. In Sweden, these changes coincided with the decentralization of power and responsibilities within primary and secondary education from central to local government. This gave municipalities an important role in the actual implementation of choice policies. The question addressed here is how and why local authorities vary with regard to their promotion of choice in schooling. A theory of local government school choice policies is developed, focusing on the social and political composition of the locality. Four factors are seen as likely to be particularly important: the strength of liberal conservatism, the size of the middle class, ethnic diversity and urban location. The empirical investigation is based on data from the 288 municipalities in Sweden. All four factors turn out to be important, but contrary to previous assumptions, choice policies are not primarily linked to the success of the Moderate (Conservative) Party. Instead, the strength of the middle class is the major explanation. In Sweden, but also in other Western societies, the middle class has emerged as the dominant social stratum. Middle class parents, who themselves are well educated, take a keen interest in their children's education and are more likely to demand greater opportunities for choice. In the final analysis, this is linked to the changing position of the Social Democratic Party and its aim to broaden its electoral basis by appealing to middle class voters.     

Two remarks on the effect of increased equalitarianism in decisional skills on the number of individuals that maximizes group judgmental competence

Employing the symmetric uncertain dichotomous choice model, this paper is concerned with the effect of two types of changes in individual decisional competencies on the optimal collective decision rule and, in particular, on the optimal number of essential decision makers (individuals who are effectively involved in the decision-making process). The first change is simply a decrease in the decisional skills of some of the existing more competent essential decision makers. The second change is a rank and mean-preserving equalization of decisional skills. We show that the number of essential decision makers is not necessarily positively related to both of these changes. This surprising observation implies that a more egalitarian distribution of decisional skills may justify a reduction in the optimal number of individuals effectively participating in the collective decision-making process.     

Paradigm,School, or Sect? Some Reflections on the Status of Rational Choice Theory in Contemporary Scandinavian Political Science

There is a marked difference between American and Scandinavian political science when it comes to the position of rational choice theory within the discipline. In the US it is said to have become "probably the hottest thing going in political science today", whereas in Scandinavia it seems at present to linger on the borderline between a school and a sect. As part of a possible explanation for this difference, this article points, on the one hand, to some differences between the status of American and Scandinavian political science and on the other hand to some differences between dominant intellectual traditions. The intellectual differences may in turn be linked to differences between American and Scandinavian politics. Thus, in some respects rational choice theory appears to be more congenial to the American than to a Scandinavian political setting. The article concludes with a short discussion of how ongoing changes in Scandinavian and, more generally, European politics might affect the scientific status of rational choice theory in the future.     

Increasing the transparency of stated choice studies for policy analysis: Designing experiments to produce raw response graphs

We believe a lack of transparency undermines both the credibility of, and interest in, stated choice studies among policy makers. Unlike articles reporting the results of contingent valuation studies, papers in the stated choice literature rarely present simple tabulations of raw response data (that is, a table or graph showing the percentage of respondents agreeing to purchase a good or service, or vote for a proposed management plan as a function of price). We describe an approach for adding “policy” tasks to a standard orthogonal‐in‐attribute‐levels research design that allows the researcher to plot raw responses as a function of changes in only one characteristic of the offered good or service. We demonstrate this approach using data from a stated choice study of private demand for cholera and typhoid vaccines in Kolkata, India, carried out in the summer of 2004. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The determinants of the choice between public and private production of a publicly funded service

The public choice literature contains little formal analysis of the bureaucratic choice of production modes — public or private — of publicly funded services. An important question to be addressed is why some governmental bodies choose to provide a publicly funded service with publicly owned and operated production units whereas other governmental bodies contract with private firms to provide the same publicly funded service. This paper is the first formal attempt to remedy this gap in the literature. We develop a theoretical explanation of the government decision maker's choice between public and private production modes based on utility maximizing behavior. We then examine empirically this choice employing logit analysis. The empirical results, which include several tests for robustness, confirm our theoretical explanation. The results are significant and suggest that non-monetary constraints are an important factor affecting this choice of production modes and that monetary constraints are less influential.     

A Comparative Test of Alternative Theories of the Determinants of Italian Public Deficits (1950–1998)

The paper assesses the relative explanatorypower of the Keynesian, the optimalfinance, the contingent liability andseveral public choice theories of thedeterminants of public deficits on Italian1950–1998 data. A vector error correctionmodel suggests that deficits are sensitiveto unemployment levels, interest groups'preferences (especially the elderly),government fragmentation, changes in thedegree of stringency of budget rules andexternal economic constraints. Data insteadprovide a weak or no support to thehypotheses that deficits respond to outputgrowth and electoral events. Theimplications of the optimal finance and ofthe contingent liability theory arerejected as well.     

Policy-Specific Alienation and Indifference in the Calculus of Voting: A Simultaneous Model of Party Choice and Abstention

This article aims to combine the spatial models of candidate/party choice and abstention/participation choice in a single decision model and to provide empirical reaction functions. The starting point of this study is the hypothesis of a sequential ordering of candidate choice and participation choice (Riker and Ordeshook, 1973). The proposed model simultaneously considers the choice among n≥ 2 parties and the abstention option. It differentiates between policy-specific effects of alienation and indifference. The models are estimated with nested multiattributive discrete choice models which are theoretically founded on random utility theory.     

浅析女性主义翻译理论中译者主体性的凸显

女性主义翻译理论是将女性主义运动与翻译理论结合起来,该理论改变了传统翻译理论中译者身份被隐藏的现象,开始彰显译者在翻译过程中的主体身份,选择和翻译策略方面分析女性主义翻译理论中译者主体性的凸显,对翻译理论研究有一定的启示。     

Endogenous changes in the exchange rate regime: A bureaucratic incentive model

Public choice submits that legal changes can be endogenous in such a way that they are manipulated by bureaucrats who want to maximize rents from transactions with various interest groups. This paper takes the change in exchange rate regimes to empirically examine the premise. It offers a two-stage method, in which we first show that the exchange rate is influenced by interest group pressures, and subsequently that the 1990 market average regime (MAR), as a phase-in policy in Korea, was introduced mainly to serve bureaucratic incentives. This method is expected to be useful to a host of countries for various studies attempting to test a possible existence of bureaucratic or other hidden motivations behind any “isolated'' event of policy change.     

Unemployment and Party Choice in Norway

By the late 1980s, the absolute number of jobless in Norway had reached the same level as that during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Unemployment in the 1930s is known to have had an impact on party choice. Among those hit by unemployment in the 1980s, however, we no longer find a strong correlation between unemployment and party choice. This situation constitutes the point of departure for this article. The relationship between joblessness and party choice is investigated on the basis of four hypotheses: (i) The incumbency thesis , which suggests that the incumbent party receives support in accordance with fluctuations in economic conditions - i. e. it is punished in bad times and rewarded in prosperous times, (ii) The policy thesis , which predicts that voters concerned about unemployment prefer the Labour Party, (iii) The social composition thesis , which argues that the fluctuations between unemployment and party choice are simply due to changes in the social composition of the unemployed, (iv) The generation thesis , which underscores that the impact of unemployment on party choice varies according to historical generation. Confronted with empirical evidence, the social composition thesis is rejected. Likewise, support for the policy thesis has gradually vanished. Some empirical support is given to the incumbency thesis . In the end, however, the generation thesis appears to be the most relevant.     

Reform of the United Nations Security Council: equity and efficiency

Rents and political motives are present in many aspects of public policy. This article considers the role of rents, rent seeking, and the political choice of environmental policy. Rents are introduced into the political choice of price and quantity regulation under conditions of uncertainty. The model shows how political-economy aspects affect the choice between price and quantity regulation. The contesting of rents associated with different policies affects the regulatory structure and influences the political choice of an environmental policy target. The primary conclusion is that the political choice of environmental policy depends on the interaction between the efficiency of rent transfer and the size of rent-seeking groups within the economy.     

Exchange rate evidence on the effectiveness of United Nations policy

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of international interventions through their impact on exchange rates. If a specific intervention actually increases (decreases) a country's economic and political stability, then its currency should appreciate (depreciate). Estimates suggest that peacekeeping forces in Lebanon caused long-run appreciations, while economic sanctions imposed upon South Africa only caused temporary depreciations. In both cases, repeated U.N. resolutions condemning or demanding actions, that were not backed by actual interventions, did not cause changes in the exchange rate. The results in this paper are supportive of predictions from the public choice approach applied to international organizations and policies.     

Europeanization or Party Politics? Explaining Government Choice for Corporatist Concertation

This article assesses whether changes in government choice for policy concertation with trade unions and employers are better explained by international or domestic factors. We compare patterns of corporatist governance in a strongly Europeanized policy domain (labor migration policy) and in a weakly Europeanized policy domain (welfare state reforms) over the last 20 years in Austria and Switzerland. We show that there is no systematic difference in patterns of concertation between the two policy sectors and that factors linked to party politics play a bigger role in the choice of governments for concertation. If the base of party support for policies is divided, governments are more prone to resort to corporatist concertation as a way to build compromises for potentially controversial or unpopular policies. By contrast, ideologically cohesive majority coalitions are less prone to resort to concertation because they do not need to build compromises outside their base of party support.     

Exchange, unanimity and consent: a defence of the public choice account of power

An enduring criticism of public choice theory is that it does not adequately address the question of power in contemporary capitalist societies. In particular it is argued that the exchange paradigm and the principle of unanimity lead to a conservative defence of the unequal and unjust status quo of such societies. These criticisms are often presented as unanswered and unanswerable. Indeed, public choice scholars have tended to pursue their own research agendas rather than engage such criticisms. This article seeks to make good this lacuna by providing a defence of the public choice account of power. It is shown that within the public choice approach the exchange paradigm and the unanimity principle serve as idealized models against which to judge real world institutional arrangements. As such, these models serve as a basis for critique of contemporary capitalist societies in which all individuals may be subject to predation as a matter of routine. It is shown that the public choice account of power addresses the legitimization and limitation of power, whereas the critics of public choice in effect propose to allocate power to those deemed deserving. Hence, the public choice approach provides a basis for a genuinely consensual politics and exposes the fact that alternative conceptions of politics are fundamentally non-consensual. On this basis it is concluded that the public choice account of power in contemporary capitalist societies is superior to that offered by its critics.