INTERGOVERNMENTAL ROLES IN LOCAL ENERGY CONSERVATION: A RESEARCH FRONTIER

This article examines a frontier research area: local energy conservation and intergovernmental relations. The vast potential for financial and energy savings by local governments through energy conservation is contrasted to a significant lack of meaningful programs by reviewing current local programs through examination of research efforts, intergovernmental trends in assistance and the legal foundation for local energy roles. Several items for the energy conservation research agenda are offered, especially a call for more research on the relationship between rising energy prices and development of energy programs. Other research foci are the impacts of intergovernmental technical assistance, organizational structures for incorporating energy conservation concerns into local government, state-local program coordination, citizen demand for conservation programs and the information dissemination networks in energy policy.     

The relationship between income and material hardship

This paper examines the relationship between income and the extent of material hardship and explores other factors that might affect hardship. Using panel data from the Women's Employment Study, we examine the incidence of material hardship from 1997 to 2003 among current and former welfare recipients. We then consider the extent to which income is associated with hardship. We show that hardship decreases monotonically across quintiles of the income distribution for several income measures. When we measure income as the average across the 6‐year study period, a 10 percent increase in average income is associated with a 1.1 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of experiencing a hardship, a drop of about 3.4 percent. We also find that the relationship between transitory changes in income and hardship is weak. These results are consistent with findings based on a nationally representative sample of disadvantaged households from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Our results indicate that observable factors, such as measures of mental health, are more strongly related to hardship than current income. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Is There an Association Between Gasoline Prices and Physical Activity? Evidence from American Time Use Data

Obesity is epidemic in the United States, and there is an imperative need to identify policy tools that may help fight this epidemic. A recent paper in the economics literature finds an inverse relationship between gasoline prices and obesity risk—suggesting that increased gasoline prices via higher gasoline taxes may have the effect of reducing obesity prevalence. This study builds upon that paper. It utilizes cross‐sectional time series data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) over 2003–2008, utilizes the increases that occurred in gasoline prices in this period due to Hurricane Katrina and to the global spike in gasoline prices as a “natural experiment,” and explores how time spent by Americans on different forms of physical activity is associated with gasoline price levels. Economic theory suggests that higher gasoline prices may alter individual behavior both via a “substitution effect” whereby people seek alternatives to motorized transportation, and an “income effect” whereby the effect of higher gasoline prices on the disposable family budget leads people to make various adjustments to what they spend money on. The latter may lead to some increase in physical activity (for example, doing one's own yard work instead of hiring help), but may also lead to decreases in other physical activities that involve expenses, such as team sports or workouts at the gym. Thus, ultimately, the relationship between gasoline prices and physical activity must be empirically determined. Results from multivariate regression models with state and time fixed effects indicate that higher gasoline prices are associated with an overall increase of physical activity that is at least moderately energy intensive. The increases are most pronounced in periods where gasoline prices fluctuate more sharply and unexpectedly. These results appear robust to a number of model specifications. One of the major components of this increase appears to be an increase in housework that is at least moderately energy intensive—such as interior and exterior cleaning, garden, and yard work. This tentatively suggests that there is an income effect of higher gasoline prices, or a possible increase in prices of such services when gasoline prices increase. However, the increases in physical activity associated with increased gasoline prices are weaker among minorities and low socioeconomic status (SES) individuals. Hence, while a policy that increases gasoline prices via raised gasoline taxes may have benefits in terms of increasing overall physical activity levels in the United States, these benefits may not accrue to low SES individuals to the same extent as to their higher SES counterparts. This suggests that if increasing physical activity is the primary goal, then it may be more efficient to use a tax that can exert an income effect on mid‐to‐high SES households, such as a targeted income tax. On the other hand, if gasoline taxes are imposed to address other negative externalities of gasoline use, then these taxes may have the added benefit of increasing physical activity at least among some segments of U.S. society.     

Economic growth and income equality since the 1982 recession

This paper tests the “rising tide” and “trickle down” hypotheses of income growth by examining several measures of income inequality between 1983 and 1987. A close look at household incomes between those years shows that post-tax income growth has been concentrated among the 20 percent of American households with the highest incomes. The middle income classes have experienced only modest income growth over this period, and the 20 percent of American households with the lowest incomes have experienced a decline in income. These results hold whether the analysis is based on a summary measure of income equality such as the Gini coefficient, or on a less technical measure such as average income. Furthermore, income growth seems to be decreasing most rapidly for groups of households that historically have had the lowest incomes: female-headed households, blacks, and Hispanics. Finally, two standard explanations of the inequality trend—that the distributional changes are the result of either cohort effects or the movement of jobs to the lower wage areas of South—are tested by disaggregating the data. Neither hypothesis is confirmed by our research.     

Coalitions and Conservation: Conditional Impacts of Coalitions on Ballot Measures for Open Space

Social scientists have long debated the impact of interest group coalitions on public policies. While views on coalition impacts range from dominance to impotence, an emerging perspective suggests that coalitions have impacts under certain conditions. In this paper, we join and expand that perspective by arguing that coalitions have a conditional impact on public policies through ballot measures. Specifically, we argue that coalitions will have greater impact on ballot measure outcomes in non‐presidential election years, when the stakes involved are high, and when the goals of the measure are diverse. We test these hypotheses with analyses of a dataset of over 2,400 ballot measures on spending for open space at the state and local level between 1988 and 2014. We find strong support for our hypotheses. The findings have implications for scholarly debates on interest groups and coalitions, for the role of ballot measures in American public policy, and for assessments of open space and conservation in American society.     

Assessing the economic status of the aged and nonaged using alternative income-wealth measures

This exploratory article examines several aspects of the complex problem of combining data on income and wealth into a single measure of economic well-being. Examples of income-wealth measures that have been used are described. Estimates of the economic well-being of age groups in the current period are presented for several measures. To examine the sensitivity of the results to the choice of method, those estimates are compared. In this article, wealth is defined to include only financial assets. Data from the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation are used. The economic status of the aged relative to the nonaged improves when the measure of resources is changed from income to a combined income-wealth measure. The amount of improvement depends on the income-wealth measure used. When medians are examined, the differences among most of the measures compared are not very large. For every measure compared, the median rises as age increases, then falls. When the percentage of each age group that is in the bottom of the distribution is examined for several income-wealth measures, the differences among measures are small. In general, these percentages are relatively high for the young and old age groups, and relatively low for the middle age groups.     

The religious transition. A long-run perspective

Religiosity is defined as the importance of religion in all aspects of life. The definition is operationalized into a robust measure by aggregating 14 items from the World Values Surveys. Religiosity falls by 50 % when countries pass through the transition from being underdeveloped to becoming a developed one. A formal test shows that long-run causality is predominantly from income to religiosity. The transition slope is robust to measurement error and composition of the country sample. The empirical macro relation is rationalized by some micro theory: Most components of the demand for religious goods are reduced by rising income. Churches supply religious goods directly and through three additional channels: education, healthcare, and social security. Rising income caused churches to lose control over the additional channels.     

When registration barriers fall,who votes?: An empirical test of a rational choice model

It is well known that those with higher SES characteristics tend to vote at higher rates in U.S. elections. Over the past several decades many proponents of eased voter registration requirements have predicted that liberalizing voter registration laws will significantly improve turnout, especially among the least well- educated and the poor. In this article we offer a rational choice model of turnout that leads us to expect the greatest turnout gains from virtually eliminating voter registration costs will instead accrue to those with medium income and education. We test this prediction longitudinally over the period 1972–1992 using a vast survey and a natural experiment comparing voters in states that adopted election day registration (EDR) with those residing in states maintaining more traditional closing dates. Contrary to much of the literature, citizens with medium education and medium income voted more under EDR, as the model predicts. We conclude that the methods used here better capture and empirically identify the curvilinear relationship between voter registration laws and the turnout probabilities at various SES levels.     

Value is Simple. Valuation is Complex

Value can appear so complicated that it is not only a terribly intimidating topic, but actually fruitless to pursue. That is, the concept of value is either a dead end or best left to the experts. We disagree. At the most general level, having value can be understood as having the capacity to be measured and compared against another thing (or a standard). This is consistent with Marxian concepts (which are elaborated with special reference to the capitalist value form), but it is also simple and general enough to provide a transportable frame for discussing the role of value and measurement in any context imaginable, whether it be a discussion of spiritualism, collective action, economic data, or physical science. Marx directs our attention to the political constitution of systems of measure on the very first page of Capital, and there is now a great deal of work in geography and in science and technology studies on the social constitution of systems of valuation. We believe a crucial topic deserves an accessible approach that reveals unities rather than barriers, and thus supplement them with the moral and critical political-economic critique made possible by Marxian value theory.     

The empirical relationship between carbon emission and energy use of BRICS nations

In literature, there has been a large number of empirical research to examine the impact of CO2 emission on economic activity popularly known as the Environmental Kuznets curve having an inverted U shape relationship. The increasing environmental problem and environmental degradation are global phenomena due to increasing economic activities. In order to verify this relationship empirically in the context of BRICS nations, the present study intends to investigate the importance of energy use in the estimation of carbon emission while controlling GDP, industry value added and trade openness using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Fixed Effect (FE) Models. Our findings have confirmed that the relationship between CO2 emission and GDP confirmed inverted U‐shaped of the EKC. The direction of the relationship between squared LNIVA and LNCO2P further reinforce the inverted U‐shaped EKC. The relationship between LNEU and CO2P also satisfied the inverted U‐shape of the EKC. This may be due to the practice of energy efficiency and energy conservation measures in industrial sectors in BRICS nations. However, BRICS nations should also emphasize renewables and policies need to be aligned accordingly to keep CO2 emission at a lower level so that global warming could be kept to below 1.50°C, which is the target given by Paris Agreements.     

Nationally poor,locally rich: Income and local context in the 2016 presidential election

When social scientists examine relationships between income and voting decisions, their measures implicitly compare people to others in the national economic distribution. Yet an absolute income level (e.g., $57,617 per year, the 2016 national median) does not have the same meaning in Clay County, Georgia, where the 2016 median income was $22,100, as it does in Old Greenwich, Connecticut, where the median income was $224,000. We address this limitation by incorporating a measure of one's place in her ZIP code's income distribution. We apply this approach to the question of the relationship between income and whites' voting decisions in the 2016 presidential election, and test for generalizability in elections since 2000. The results show that Trump's support was concentrated among nationally poor whites but also among locally affluent whites, complicating claims about the role of income in that election. This pattern suggests that social scientists would do well to conceive of income in relative terms: relative to one's neighbors.     

Measuring Political Brands: An Art and a Science of Mapping the Mind

The field of political brands has developed a host of approaches and explored a variety of cases over the last years. However, less attention has been devoted to brand measurement—specifically efforts to construct a measure that attempts to explain the relationship between voters and parties. Against this backdrop, this article discusses how to measure a political brand by first selecting one part of the diverse brand concept for further investigation. Next, the two existing brand measures in the literature are evaluated, and the article proposes an alternative measure that underlines a stronger connection to the immense political science literature on voters and parties. Then, the three measures are compared by empirically investigating which measure is best at explaining voters' party sympathy. Here, it is demonstrated that the alternative measure seems to be the most valid and reliable construct when it comes to explaining voters' sympathy for a particular party. Finally, the proposed alternative measure is further validated in a representative sample (N = 2251), establishing a preliminary correlation between party brand and voter sympathy.     

The cognitive and affective components of political attitudes: Measuring the determinants of candidate evaluations

Past research suggests that beliefs and emotions operate as partially distinct determinants of political attitudes. In addition, while positive and negative beliefs about a political object are bipolar in structure, positive and negative emotions have been demonstrated to be relatively independent. In this past research, beliefs and emotions have been assessed with different measures. Yet current models of survey responding suggest that responses to survey items are often influenced by the manner in which the researcher poses the questions. As such, it is not clear whether the uniqueness of these belief and emotion measures reflects a bona fide difference between two underlying constructs, or merely an artifactual difference induced by differing methods of measurement. In this study, beliefs and emotions are shown to operate as partially unique predictors of candidate evaluation even when employing corresponding methods of measurement. The independence of positive and negative emotion, however, only arises when employing a dichotomous measure. When employing ordinal measures, positive and negative emotions contain a substantial component of bipolarity. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Success and design of local referenda for land conservation

From 1998 to 2006, over three‐quarters of the more than 1,550 U.S. referenda targeting open space passed. We analyze the success of the conservation movement at holding referenda in areas with greater ecological value and greater likelihood of supporting conservation. To do so, we first analyze the patterns in where referenda are held and in which finance mechanisms they employ. Controlling for these two selection patterns, we then investigate the factors determining the success of the referenda. Our findings suggest that conservation groups are pursuing a successful strategy, targeting communities with above‐average probabilities of passing referenda and higher ecological value. Nevertheless, our results suggest that overlooked opportunities exist in minority and middle‐class neighborhoods, in suburban fringe areas, and in the Southeast. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Availability of affordable healthy food in Hillsborough County,Florida

Prior research has indicated that low‐income neighborhoods in urban regions throughout the United States have limited access to healthy food, which partly explains the prevalence of diet‐related diseases. Our study provides new evidence on the relationship between access, prices of healthy food, and key demographic factors in Hillsborough County, Florida. The research team completed 65 surveys of grocery and convenience stores regarding availability and prices of 11 food items included in the Nutrition Environment Measures Survey in Stores (NEMS‐S). Results from the regression analysis indicate that affordable healthy food is more likely to be found in grocery stores than in convenience stores. There is no significant evidence, however, that low‐income neighborhoods have less access to healthy food than the not‐low‐income ones. We also observe significant price differences among types of stores but not in grocery‐to‐convenience store ratios among income groups, suggesting that low‐income families are not exposed to higher food prices.     

Reciprocity schemes in unemployment regulation policies: Towards a pluralistic citizenship of Marginalisation?

Recent developments in unemployment regulation policies indicate that universal treatment of social welfare recipients is increasingly being replaced by selective programmes which are characterised by lower subsidies and the introduction of reciprocity in social welfare. Such programmes generally introduce the condition that people who benefit from social assistance perform some kind of work in return. These tendencies have important consequences on the organisation of our welfare society. We believe that the application of schemes based on selectivity and reciprocity to a significant portion of the population undermines the basic characteristics of the Welfare State, i.e. class stabilisation policies and the universal basis of treatment. This article will discuss these tendencies in the light of the workfare debate. It proposes to transform these measures into unconditional ones, sustained by universal basic income schemes.     

The theory of the state and politics: a central paradox of Marxism

It is commonplace to observe that while Marx saw the withering away of the state as necessary for communism, the state in ‘Communist’ societies has done anything but wither away. This seems to indicate a paradox in the Marxian theory, whose resolution would probably tend to undermine the theory itself. It is, however, argued that the expansion of the state in ‘Communist’ societies is only apparently contradictory to the Marxian theory, and that the theory in fact provides the basis for a most adequate account of this phenomenon. But the theory does have a genuinely paradoxical quality which lies in the tension between the political and its social basis, in the socialist movement. The fundamental component of the Marxian theory is its demonstration of the dependence of the state and politics on society; the problem then is the very status of ‘the political’ as a category, and especially the meaning of a ‘marxist politics’. Marxism itself demonstrates that the very existence of ‘politics in the direct and narrow sense of the word’ is the product of an alienated society, and yet it posits a politics which necessarily exists partly in this very sense. This paper considers the Marxian theory and the problems it tries to deal with, and attempts to show that the solution to its paradox lies in resolving the real tension between the social movement and its political expression. It will be argued that terms of the dilemma are being modified by changes in the relations between the state and society. These changes make a political solution of social contradictions more possible, precisely because they reduce the abstraction of politics from society.     

What Is Governance?

This commentary points to the poor state of empirical measures of the quality of states, that is, executive branches and their bureaucracies. Much of the problem is conceptual, as there is very little agreement on what constitutes high‐quality government. The commentary suggests four approaches: (1) procedural measures, such as the Weberian criteria of bureaucratic modernity; (2) capacity measures, which include both resources and degree of professionalization; (3) output measures; and (4) measures of bureaucratic autonomy. It rejects output measures and suggests a two‐dimensional framework of using capacity and autonomy as a measure of executive branch quality. This framework explains the conundrum of why low‐income countries are advised to reduce bureaucratic autonomy while high‐income ones seek to increase it.     

Benefit adequacy among elderly Social Security retired-worker beneficiaries and the SSI federal benefit rate

Both target effectiveness and administrative simplicity are desirable properties in the design of minimum benefit packages for public retirement programs. The federal benefit rate (FBR) of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program has been proposed by some analysts as a potentially attractive basis of establishing a new minimum benefit for Social Security on both of these grounds. This type of proposal is related to a broader array of minimum benefit proposals that would establish a Social Security benefit floor based on the poverty rate. In contrast to Social Security, the SSI program is means tested, including both an income and asset screen and also a categorical eligibility screen (the requirement to qualify as aged or disabled). The SSI FBR provides an inflation-adjusted, guaranteed income floor for aged and disabled people with low assets. The FBR has been perceived by proponents as a minimal measure of Social Security benefit adequacy because it represents a subpoverty income level for a family of one or two depending on marital status. For this same reason it has been seen as a target-effective tool of designing a minimum Social Security benefit. An FBR-based minimum benefit has also been viewed as administratively simple to implement; the benefit can be calculated from Social Security administrative records using a completely automated electronic process. Therefore-in contrast to the SSI program itself-an FBR-based minimum benefit would incur virtually no ongoing administrative costs, would not require a separate application for a means-tested program, and would avoid the perception of welfare stigma. While these ideas have been discussed in the literature and among policymakers in the United States over the years, and similar proposals have been considered or implemented in several foreign countries, there have been no previous analyses measuring the size of the potentially affected beneficiary population. Nor has there been any systematic assessment of the FBR as a measure of benefit adequacy or the tradeoffs between potential target effectiveness and administrative simplicity. Based on a series of simulations, we assess the FBR as a potential foundation for minimum Social Security benefits and we examine the tradeoffs between administrative simplicity and target effectiveness using microdata from the 1996 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our empirical analysis is limited to Social Security retired-worker beneficiaries aged 65 or older. We start with the assessment of the FBR as a measure of benefit adequacy. We are particularly concerned about two types of error: (1) incorrectly identifying some Social Security beneficiaries as "economically vulnerable," and (2) incorrectly identifying others as "not economically vulnerable." Operationally we measure economic vulnerability by two alternative standards. One of our measures considers beneficiaries with family income below the official poverty threshold as vulnerable. Our second measure is more restrictive; it uses a family income threshold equal to 75 percent of the official poverty threshold. We find that a substantial minority of retired workers have Social Security benefits below the FBR. The results also show that the FBR-based measure of Social Security benefit adequacy is very imprecise in terms of identifying economically vulnerable people. We estimate that the vast majority of beneficiaries with Social Security benefits below the FBR are not economically vulnerable. Conversely, an FBR-level Social Security benefit threshold fails to identify some beneficiaries who are economically vulnerable. Thus an FBR-level minimum benefit would be poorly targeted in terms of both types of errors we are concerned about. An FBR-level minimum benefit would provide minimum Social Security benefits to many people who are clearly not poor. Conversely, an FBR-level minimum benefit would not provide any income relief to some who are poor. The administrative simplicity behind these screening errors also results in additional program cost that may be perceived as substantial. We estimate that an FBR-level minimum benefit would increase aggregate program cost for retired workers aged 65 or older by roughly 2 percent. There are two fundamental reasons for these findings. First, the concept of an FBR-level minimum benefit looks at the individual or married couple in artificial isolation; however, the family is the main consumption unit in our society. The income of an unmarried partner or family members other than a married spouse is ignored. Second, individuals and couples may also have income from sources other than Social Security or SSI, which is also ignored by a simple FBR-based minimum benefit concept. The substantial empirical magnitude of measurement error arising from these conceptual simplifications naturally leads to the assessment of the tradeoff between target effectiveness and administrative simplicity. To facilitate this analysis, we simulate the potential effect of alternative screening methods designed to increase target effectiveness; while reducing program cost, such alternatives also may increase administrative complexity. For example, considering the combined Social Security benefit of a married couple (rather than looking at the husband and wife in isolation) might substantially increase target effectiveness with a relatively small increase in administrative complexity. Adding a family income screen might increase administrative complexity to a greater degree, but also would increase target effectiveness dramatically. The results also suggest that at some point adding new screens-such as a comprehensive asset test-may drastically increase administrative complexity with diminishing returns in terms of increased target effectiveness and reduced program cost. Whether a broad-based minimum benefit concept that is not tied to previous work experience is perceived by policymakers as desirable or not may depend on several factors not addressed in this article. However, to the extent that this type of minimum benefit design is regarded as potentially desirable, the tradeoffs between administrative simplicity and target effectiveness need to be considered.     

Projections of economic well-being for Social Security beneficiaries in 2022 and 2062

Policymakers considering potential changes to the Social Security program need to be able to assess how such changes would affect the economic well-being of future retirees. The first step to understanding these effects is to determine the well-being of future retirees under the current Social Security system. To this end, this article projects the retiree populations aged 62 or older in 2022 and 2062 using the Social Security Administration's MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term) model and assesses their well-being. Because no one measure can fully capture whether future retirees will have adequate resources to meet their needs, we employ several indicators to assess retirement prospects. In addition, because current-law Social Security promises cannot be financed from current-law taxes, we project an alternative 2062 baseline that adjusts Social Security benefits downward to reflect the amounts that current-law taxes can support. Our results illustrate the importance of using several measures when assessing the well-being of future Social Security beneficiaries. When using absolute measures, retirement well-being will improve for Social Security beneficiaries in 2062 compared with those in 2022. Median per capita income of Social Security beneficiaries is projected to increase by a third (in real terms) between 2022 and 2062, with a corresponding decline in projected poverty rates. In addition, median financial wealth will increase between 2022 and 2062. Relative measures of well-being, however, suggest a decline in well-being between Social Security beneficiaries in 2022 and those in 2062. The share of beneficiaries who have low income relative to their peers, measured as the share whose income-to-needs ratio is less than half of the median ratio, will increase over time. In addition, income replacement rates are projected to fall between 2022 and 2062, indicating a decline in how well-being during retirement compares with that during the working years. And although median financial wealth will increase between 2022 and 2062, it will actually fall relative to economy-wide average wages. Projected improvements over time would lessen, and declines would be exacerbated, if instead of assuming the payment of currently scheduled Social Security benefits we assumed that benefits would be reduced according to what is payable under current-law taxes. Regardless of which measure of well-being is used, certain groups fare worse than others, including beneficiaries who never married, nonwhites, beneficiaries without a high school degree, and those with fewer years of labor force experience and low lifetime earnings. These vulnerable groups are likely to be more dependent on Social Security benefits for their retirement income. As a result, they fare particularly poorly under the assumption that Social Security benefits are reduced to reflect what is payable under current-law taxes.