U.S.-China-Japan Relations and China＇ s Strategic Choices

japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe＇s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine has escalated tensions between China and Japan that were triggered by the Diaoyu Islands dispute. Changes in the balance of power between China and Japan have caused concerns and strategic restlessness in Japan. Because of public opinion and his party＇s control of the House of Representatives and Senate, Abe is now eager to further his aims both domestically and overseas. That is why he said： ＂Now is the time for Japan to take the big step in building a new state.＂ The U.S. supports a stronger Japan because it is looking to maintain the strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Its Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy is bound to inflame Japan＇s ambitions. In fact, Japan has been actively pursuing stronger ties with the U.S. and became more aggressive over the Diaoyu Islands issue.     

The U.S. Decline Debate and Its Impact

The possibility that the U.S. is in decline has renewed concerns over the international strategic situation and the global order. The World Bank＇ s International Comparison Program （ICP） released data in April 2014 that suggested China＇ s economy could overtake that of the U.S. as soon as the end of this year （based on purchasing power parity or PPP which takes into account the relative costs of goods and services and inflation rates）. Their figures showed that the size of China＇ s economy was 87% of the U.S.＇ in 2011-that is 15% bigger than previously estimated. China＇ s economy is thought to have grown roughly 24% since 2011, while the U.S. economy is expected to have grown less than 8% .2 The possibility that the U.S. economy is in decline has worried both the public and scholars, and has sparked a new round of lively debate on the future of the international strategic situation.     

U.S. will Continue to Prioritize U.S.-Sino-Japan Balance

strategic games played out between China and Japan are inextricably linked to the U.S.＇ Asia-Pacific strategy. From a historical perspective, changes in Japan＇s domestic politics today can be traced back to the 1945-1951 reforms when Japan was under the control of the U.S.. The Diaoyu Islands dispute is directly related to the U.S.-Japan peace agreement in 1951 that excluded both the Chinese mainland and Taiwan. While current changes in Sino-Japanese relations are also connected to some structural factors like changes in the balance of power between China and Japan and Japan＇s domestic politics edging to the right, another important external cause that should not be ignored is the U.S. effort to rebalance to the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, in order to improve Sino-Japanese relations, we should not only try to find the causes and relative countermeasures from both sides, but also we should properly understand those factors originating from the U.S., particularly the U.S.＇ Asia-Pacific strategy.     

Evolvement of New China＇s Relations with Other Developing Countries

China＇s relationship with other developing countries is an important basis for China＇s foreign strategy. Since its founding, New China has accumulated complex experience and achieved rich fruits in how to handle and develop its relations with other developing countries. It has experienced contradictions between ideology and national identity and also made strenuous efforts to safeguard the country＇s strategic independence. Since the introduction of the reform and opening-up policy, China has rapidly enhanced its national strength, providing a new platform for it to play a greater role in the current international system. But China＇s identity as a developing country remains the starting point of its foreign strategy, and hence promoting and consolidating its relationship with other developing countries will also remain as China＇s strategic choice.     

The Inability of Japan to Adapt to China＇ s Rise and China＇ s Strategic Response

since China first surpassed Japan in 2010 to become the world＇s second largest economy, the continuing friction and tensions between China and Japan has intensified around issues such as the Diaoyu Islands and the East China Sea air defense identification zone. At the end of 2013, with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe＇s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, the Sino-Japanese relationship was brought to the lowest point in nearly 30 years. What are the deep-seated reasons for this？ What are Japan＇s strategic intentions？ These questions are worthy of further exploration.     

Common Economic Development Remains the Principal Driving Force in the Region

Security issues have become the focus of U.S. scholars and politicians examining the recent changes to China＇s periphery strategy. This includes such issues as territorial and maritime disputes, changes to ally networks brought about by the U.S.＇ return to the Asia-Pacific, and certain major changes to national security policies. While these security issues are urgent, development is still key for China＇s neighbors. They view this issue from a broader strategic perspective and against a long-term historical perspective. This has had a direct and profound effect on the evolution of China＇s periphery security environment.     

Business as Usual

In the years since 9/11, there is no doubt that the emphasis of U.S. global strategy has been on counter-terrorism and the war in Iraq. During this period of time, the U.S. investment in strategic, political and military resources in the Middle East, Iraq, and the war on terror, which are the top priorities on the list of Bush＇s foreign policy, has been far greater than in any other fields. However, there are some in the U.S. who believe that China＇s rise has been much ignored by the U.S., due to the global war on terror （GWOT）, and that America should, in fact, be focusing more on China, not the Middle East. However, as we see it, China has by no means been ignored by the U.S., neither has China＇s rise been the result of U.S. ignorance.     

The Changing Asia-Pacific Strategic Picture

Battlefield for Strategic Rivalry
In recent years, the Asia-Pacific strategic configuration has entered a stare of in-depth readiustments. The relative decline of the United States,China＇s rapid rise, Russia＇s fast revival and Japan＇s quickening step toward a ＂normal country＂ have combined to turn regional multi-polarity into a reality. Not surprisingly, the world＇ s strategic structure has begun to focus on the region, with intensifying rivalry among major countries centered on economic competition and aggravating geopolitical game conducive to a security dilemma. As a matter of fact, U.S.-Japanese provocations have been at work in tuming regional hotspot issues into tools for such a game. As a result, escalating security threats to China in the East and South China Seas are converging into potential risks of collision and conflicts with other contenders.     

Abstracts

1.The Korean Nuclear Issue Tests Obama＇s Asia Diplomacy,.by Shi Yongming, Senior Researcher, China Institute of International Studies and Guest Researcher of CPDS. Obama＇s Asia policy has just shown an outline of its ＂smart diplomacy＂, i.e., on the premise of sticking to the basic strategy, it attaches great importance to strengthening relationship with the newly-emerging powers and seeks to extend the U.S. influence on Asia by means of dialogue and cooperation. However, the Korean nuclear issue, which is very likely to reach a complicated and even dangerous impasse, is now testing Asia policy of the U.S. new administration. The issue is not only a strategic bottleneck that is a reflection of U.S.-DPRK relationship, but also is constrained by Japan and ROK, whose interests are closely related to the changes of the situation, as well as by some political elements in the U.S.     

＂Deindustrialization＂ and Sino-Brazilian Ties

After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, major industrial economies became concerned about delndustrlahzation . The important roles that the industrial sector plays in creating jobs and ensuring intemational competitiveness began to be recognized again. The U.S. launched its policy of ＂re-industrialization＂ and Brazil published a plan to develop its industrial sector between 2011 and 2014. China＇s industrial sector has rapidly developed. ＂Deindustrialization＂ sparked widespread concern because it is connected with the global distribution of technological capability and the future global economic order. It is noteworthy that the U.S., Brazil and some other major economies partly blamed China for the problems that ＂deindustrialization＂ has caused and this has had an increasing effect on China＇ s relations with these countries. It reflects China＇ s problem as a new manufacturing power. In this article, the author analyzes those political and economic factors associated with ＂deindustrialization＂ and makes some suggestions for the Sino-Brazilian strategic partnership. In this way, the author explores some ideas on establishing a new type of big power relations.     

Solving Challenges to China＇s Periphery Diplomacy

In recent years, as the U.S. has shifted its strategic focus eastward, maritime and territorial disputes between China and several other countries have worsened and a number of China＇s neighbors have adjusted their China policies. The regional security environment has undergone several significant and complicated changes. After 2000, China＇s periphery strategy has also met new problems and challenges, which has required timely responses and calm assessment from Beijing.     

The Role of Africa in China＇s Rise

Africa plays an important role in China＇s rise. Sino-African ties bolsters up Chinese influence. African enthusiasm for taking a leaf from China＇s experience to shake off poverty has boosted China＇s soft power. Africa defends China as a responsible partner against Western slander of practicing neocolonialism. Africa provides China with the driving force for sustainable development. Africa supports China＇s national unification and demonstrates political solidarity with China. In recent years Africa＇s success in enhancing collective strength through deepening solidarity has won admiration and respect. Its strategic status is on a steady rise. It is our sincere hope that Africa will walk on the road of prosperity as soon as possible.     

Transforming Sino-U.S. Strategic Relations

Sino-U.S. strategic relations have undergone profound transformations over the past thirty years. It is increasingly urgent to change and transcend Sino-U.S. strategic relations. However, rapid adjustments and changes in world pattem prevent China and the U.S. from drawing a clear picture of each other＇s strategy. Vagueness in strategy awareness leads to difficult strategic adjustment, impacting virtuous interaction and stable development of Sino-U.S. strategic relations. The U.S., as relatively more important part in bilateral strategic relations, needs to take an initiative in substantial moves.     

＂Strategic Reassurance＂ and the Future of China-U.S. Relations

＂Strategic reassurance,＂ a new concept in Obama＇s China policy, should be fostered bilaterally by dialogue designed to highlight and reinforce the areas of common interests while addressing the sources of mistrust directly. Yet in practice it seems that U.S. strategic reassurance has contrasted all China＇s core interests. The United States and China must recognize their different social systems and asymmetrical national strength in seeking to realize strategic stability. Crisis control requires sophisticated management of both side, especially on sensitive issues like weapons sales, the Dalai Lama, and the South China Sea dispute.     

Scientific Outlook on Development and China＇s Foreign Policy

More than half a century has passed since the founding of the People＇s Republic of China. There have been successes as well as failures in China＇s policies and practices at home and abroad. The failures are stepping stones for success; lessons drawn from errors lead to truth. Chinese leader Hu Jintao recently spoke about ＂Scientific Outlook on Development, ＂＇ a summary of past history and an important guiding principle for China＇s economic and social development both now and in future. The authors believe that this is a major development in China＇s strategic thinking following Deng Xiaoping＇s ＂Reform and Opening Up＂ and Jiang Zemin＇s ＂Three Representatives＂ and that it should be upheld and applied to foreign policy decision making.     

China''s India Studies

Over the past 50 years, with the improvement of relationship between India and China, the scope of India studies in China＇s IR research has been broadened and the new areas of studies are being explored. The research agenda of India studies has already extended to the areas like economy, society, culture, security, national strategy and their impact on both bilateral and international relations. In this situation, the focuses of India studies in China＇s IR research can be mainly identified as follows： reviews on India＇s social, political and economic systems; analysis on the national strategy and foreign policy; Sino-Indian relations; India＇s relations with some international organizations. However, even though many fresh progresses have been made in India studies, the India studies in China＇s IR research still lag far behind the study of other important countries like the U.S., UK, Russia and Japan, and more problems and challenges will face in the coming future. The paper believes that a fuller understanding of India probably will not make China and India close friends, but it definitely will help to prevent them from becoming fierce enemies.     

Understanding China＇s New Strategic Dialogues

Strategic dialogues are not rarely seen in contemporary international relations and diplomatic practices. The United States and the Soviet Union held strategic nuclear weapons negotiations as rivals during the Cold War; the United States has been holding strategic consultations with Japan and the Europe as allies in the framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance and NATO respectively. China had a few classical cases of strategic dialogues in the 20th Century, among which the most well-known are the meeting between Chairman Mao Zedong and U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1972,     

ABSTRACTS

As a US--sold new geopolitical concept, the Indo--Pacific represents an ambitious attempt to sustain US leadership and maximize its interests in the Asia--Pacific and Indian Ocean region by emphasizing maritime security and exclusive al- liance/partnerships. India, Japan and Australia respond to the initiative on the basis of their respective interest calcula- tions and policy preferences and seek an important role. The strategic notion of the Indo--Pacific and its implementation will greatly influence the regional multilateral relationships as well as China＇ s policy options toward the changing security landscape.     

An Analysis of China's Power Status and International Standing

Many Chinese scholars have described China as the world＇s second biggest power after the U.S.. This is based on two facts. First, China overtook Japan in total economic output measured by GDP in 2010 to become the world＇s second biggest economy. Some scholars argue that China still lags behind the U.S. in comprehensive national power and in this sense it is also ranked second） The other is that Sino-U.S. relations are frequently described as the rise and fall of big powers, especially when referring to the Asia-Pacific region. It is the latest example of how relations between a rising power and one struggling to maintain its status have been so complex in the long history of international relations. While many people talk about the possibility that China will overtake the U.S. in the future, others talk about a G2.2 If we look closely at global trends and changes to China＇ s international environment, if we examine what exactly we mean by power status, we will have a much deeper understanding of China＇ s current power status from which we can build a solid foundation for this country＇ s foreign strategy and diplomacy.     

The Origin and Essence of U.S.Neutrality Policy on the Diaoyu Islands Dispute

It is common knowledge that the focus of the China-Japan dispute over the Diaoyu Islands1 is the question of sovereignty. Some scholars from both home and abroad have defined the issue as one between China and Japan. However, the basis for the Japanese government＇s territory claim2 over the Diaoyu Islands lies in U.S.-Japan backroom deals, and this has meant that the U.S. is also closely connected to the China-Japan dispute over the sovereignty of the Islands. When the U.S. transferred the Diaoyu Islands to Japan, it stated its neutral position over the issue. To date, all the previous U.S. administrations have basically followed this policy, and they often reiterated this policy at moments of intensification in the Diaoyu Islands issue. This means that that even though there is the close alliance between the U.S. and Japan, the U.S. has maintained its neutral position with regard to the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands, and never taken the view that the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands belongs to Japan. The repeatedly reiterated U.S. position of neutrality could be taken as holding no position on the issue of sovereignty, but of having a clear-cut position alongside Japan on the issue of security. Scholars have produced numerous works on the issue of the U.S. position on the China-Japan dispute over the Diaoyu Islands. By reviewing the historical evolvement of the U.S. position in relation to the Diaoyu Islands, this article will systematically investigate the origins of the U.S. neutrality policy, using documentary materials from China, Japan and the U.S..