从对俄政策调整看日本周边外交的困境

日俄关系在日本的周边外交中占有重要位置,近年来日本试图通过调整对俄政策彰显外交的自主性,改善周边外交状况,推出了一些新的政策措施。首先,日本建议绕开领土问题,扩大与俄罗斯的经济合作,为两国关系的彻底改善,也为最终解决领土问题奠定基础。其次,提出日俄在争议领土从事"共同经济活动"的建议,旨在与俄罗斯在争议领土进行"共同"开发,获得俄罗斯默认日本对争议领土具有主权权利,以便打开日俄关系的大门。第三,日本试图通过调整对俄政策改善周边关系,维护日本在周边外交中的有利地位。但是,日本的对俄政策依然受到内外因素限制,俄罗斯不会轻易在领土问题上让步,日本国内舆论也不可能支持政府在领土问题上让步,日俄之间也不可能在领土问题上达成共识,日俄之间的经济合作也很难脱离政治环境而有所扩大,特别是在日美同盟的框架下,日俄合作具有局限性,日本的周边外交仍然陷于困境之中。     

Security dimensions of Soviet territorial disputes with China and Japan

The advent of Mikhail Gorbachev’sNew Thinking has produce a Soviet strategy toward East Asia that seeks a détente with China and Japan. An essential part of this task involves settling the territorial disputes that both countries have with the USSR. Present negotiations on the Sino-Soviet border have produced compromises, yet differences remain. Intractable positions by Japan and the USSR on the Northern Territories issue have resulted in a standstill that has prevented formal negotiations. This article analyzes the strategic-miliatary choices that Soviet leaders will have to make as they address the territorial disputes, examine possible compromises and their consequences for Soviet security, and assess the overall prospects for settlement. Rajan Menon is associate professor of international relations at Lehigh University and author ofSoviet Power and the Third World (Yale University Press, 1986). During the 1989⊋ash;90 academic year he is serving as a research scholar at the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and as a Council on Foreign Relations international affairs fellow on the staff of Congressman Stephen J. Solarz (D-NY).     

Russo-Japanese Cooperation Imperative to bring Peace Treaty Negotiations Back on the Right Track

On the territorial issue between Japan and Russia, Sumio Edamura, former Japanese Ambassador in Moscow from 1990 to 1994, urges the negotiators to restore the spirit of trust and cooperation which once prevailed. To that end, he argues that it is imperative that both countries reconfirm their intention to continue to use the Tokyo Declaration of 1993 ‐ which contains clear guidelines for the resolution of this issue ‐ as the basis for the their future negotiations. The negotiators on both sides should have the courage to face up to the truth and be consistent without being swayed by the changing political pressures or the mood of the times.     

区域功能性合作与日本的文化外交——以吴哥古迹保护修复为中心

对于吴哥古迹的保护修复是日本在东亚开展功能性合作的重要案例。从区域公共产品的理论视角而言,这一案例体现出明显的"加权汇总"的供给方式。在其具体实践中又具有三个特点:通过知识传授和技术交流加强柬埔寨的自主能力;技术、经验、制度和设备等国内"比较优势"的区域性外化;多元主体的协同互补。因此,吴哥古迹保护修复成为战后日本文化外交和区域合作政策相结合的成功典型,对于日本改善国际形象、增强区域影响力、提升日柬双边关系起到了积极的作用。     

Vietnam–Japan Relations in the Context of Building an East Asian Community

As the regionalism in East Asia has largely been characterized by networks of bilateral relations, the linkages between regional factors and bilateral relations in East Asia were clearly witnessed in the Cold War and the post-Cold War period. As a new period of regional cooperation has been ushered in under the so-called “East Asian Community” framework, it is essential to note that such interplay continues to be one of the most prominent characteristics in East Asia. The case study analysis of bilateral relations between Vietnam, a developing member in the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Japan, the region's leading economic power in Northeast Asia, provides an insightful look at the positive relationship between the regional conditions and bilateral relations in the new East Asia context. More importantly, bilateral relations can make significant contribution to shaping the regional setting, instead of being passively affected as in the past.     

Hopes and Realities in Relations Between Russia and Japan: Is a Breakthrough Possible?

During the last 5 years, Russia and Japan have been able to widen and deepen bilateral ties in many spheres, including politics, economics, and culture. At the same time, the further qualitative improvement of bilateral relations is hampered by strong influence of an enduring negative historic memory of Japanese society toward Russia mostly due to the so-called Northern Territories syndrome. The formation of Russia’s image in Japan is also strongly influenced by a number of time-limited factors, such as the state leader’s popularity, single-moment events, empiric experience, and others (Streltsov 43). In this paper, the author traces the recent history of the territorial dispute between two countries and then attempts to evaluate the influence exerted by four time-limited factors: the triple disaster in Japan (as an example of the implications of natural disasters), the two leaders’ political aspirations, mutual trust, and popularity at home (as related to the personal features of President Putin and Prime Minister Abe), on the two countries’ approach toward signing a peace treaty and solving the territorial dispute. According to the author’s hypothesis, the strategic vision of Putin and Abe and their trustworthy relationship are playing the key role in improving ties between the two countries. Moreover, due to its importance for these ties, this paper considers the geopolitical environment of the Russo–Japan relations and the current state and perspective for bilateral energy cooperation. Finally, the author turns to an evaluation of whether a long-overdue compromise on the territorial dispute could be reached anytime soon.     

Ripe for Cooperation or Rivalry? Commerce,Realpolitik, and War Memory in Contemporary Sino-Japanese Relations

Abstract

Sino-Japanese political relations, fraught with disputes and tension during the Koizumi years, only began to recover after Abe came to power. This article investigates the driving forces shaping recent and future bilateral relations. Using evidence from the Koizumi era, I argue that 1) bilateral commercial links prove a weak stabilizing factor for political relations; 2) the current distribution of power between China and Japan does not dictate their strategic rivalry, but they may still treat each other as rivals if they perceive the danger of long-term power transition and mutual hostile intent; 3) the frequent flare-up of bilateral history disputes can exacerbate mutual threat perceptions among elites and generate popular emotional pressure for hard-line government policy toward the other country. The future of Sino-Japanese cooperation heavily depends on their efforts to resolve the negative historical legacy.     

资源民族主义语境下日本能源外交的新策略

在石油价格高企时代，资源民族主义日益膨胀。比邻而居的日本在能源外交之路上推出了诸多新举措：一是快速提升与中亚国家的合作关系，以期进一步拓宽能源进口源；二是在保持与中东传统友好关系基础上，通过合作方式和合作项目等方面的策略创新，寄希深度强化双方关系；三是积极与中、印等能源消费大国合作，以求提升国家形象。日本能源外交战略上的新策略，既非一朝一夕的构想，亦非既定方针，而是其外交经验的“积渐所至”。     

Turkey’s economic rapprochement towards Syria and the territorial conflict over Hatay

This article addresses the Justice and Development Party’s economic rapprochement towards Syria since 2002. While, the literature tackling the Turkish economic foreign policy has mainly focused on the reasons behind the rise of Turkey’s trade, this study argues that Turkey’s economic policy contributed to the alleviation of the Hatay issue, a historical territorial conflict that marked bilateral relations for long decades.     

The Future of the Japanese–Chinese Relationship: The Case for a Grand Political Bargain

Compared with the strained relationship during the Koizumi era, Japanese-Chinese relations today seem to prove that despite many bilateral problems, a solution can always be found. This attitude is too complacent as a closer examination of the three main disputes shows: the history-related issues, the territorial disputes in the East China Sea, and Taiwan. Bilateral agreements, understandings, or protracted negotiations may provide temporary relief but may turn out to be very costly in the long run to Japan's national interests and to regional stability while time is not on Japan's side in view of the shifting comprehensive power relationship between the two countries. Instead, Japan should clarify its position in the Japan–US–China triangle, reform its economy, strengthen its Asian policy and sort out its priorities concerning the three main problems by striking a grand bargain.     

俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。     

拜登政府的美日印澳四方安全合作构想述评

2017年美日印澳四方安全对话重启以来,马拉巴尔2020军演是美日印澳四国首次举行的联合军演。马拉巴尔2020军演折射出美日印澳四国针对中国的意愿及合作新进展。美日印澳四方安全合作是美国印太战略的基础和牵制中国崛起的重要机制,在近几年持续获得进展。美日印澳四国在安全领域加强合作,对四国与中国双边关系产生深远影响。马拉巴尔2020军演后,原本紧张的中印及中澳关系继续恶化。美国进一步推动与中国的竞争。美日印澳四国不但在安全领域针对中国,还营造不利于中国的国际舆论。拜登上台后,美日印澳四方安全合作继续强化。拜登比特朗普更重视与盟友合作,借由与日印澳三国磋商推动美日印澳四方安全合作机制化和常态化并走向准军事联盟。美日印澳四国明确表示不会在政治与安全领域停止针对中国,但是在经贸领域基于自身利益考量将改善对华关系。美日印澳四方安全合作升级对中国安全环境及国家利益构成严重威胁。拜登政府正在强化针对中国的印太地区多边安全架构。美国试图在外交层面让中国陷入孤立态势,在安全层面对中国形成战略包围。拜登政府的美日印澳四方安全合作构想将让中国面临更加复杂的外交局面,更加险恶的安全态势。     

调整与延续:杜特尔特政府的对华政策

2016年杜特尔特总统执政以来,菲律宾政府调整了对华政策,在南海问题上采取主动降温的方式,加强了与中国的政治沟通和经济合作,放弃了"联美制华"政策,转而奉行"大国平衡"政策。这种调整使得中菲关系得以平稳有序的发展。不过,杜特尔特总统仍然继承和延续了菲律宾的一些传统政策,主要表现在南海问题上坚持领土要求,坚持南海仲裁案的结果,以及对美国的防务依赖性。     

依靠美国：日本解决领土纠纷问题之路——原贵美惠对东北亚领土纠纷问题的主要观点

自称日本＂海外＂学者原贵美惠近几年发表了许多有关东亚领土纠纷问题研究成果,引起学界关注。作者提出东亚地区领土纠纷问题出现,都与美国战后主导《旧金山对日媾和条约》有关,是美国设置于有关国家之间的＂楔子＂,便于美国实施未来亚太战略。关于东亚领土纠纷问题如何解决,作者提出采用奥兰群岛模式,在多国框架内解决等。笔者认为,原贵美惠的研究成果确实比较新异,但并未脱离日本学者局限,依靠美国解决日本与周边国家间领土纠纷,是日本朝野上下的共同选择。     

Changing Japan and its ties with Australia

In his assessment of Japan‐Australia relations, Former Ambassador to Australia and IIPS President Yoshio Okawara emphasizes that both countries have vital roles to play in the Asia‐Pacific cooperation process. While Australia was instrumental in APEC's 1989 launch, now Japan must give momentum to its development at the upcoming Osaka APEC meeting. President Okawara originally gave this speech at the Japan‐Australia Relations Symposium in Canberra shortly before the 50th anniversary of WWH's end. In addition to his term in Australia, President Okawara has served as Ambassador to the United States and is currently Executive Advisor to Keidanren.     

“东亚共同体”建设的障碍与出路:韩国的视角

本文认为推动韩中日三国的合作是实现"东亚共同体"目标的关键所在。原因不仅在于韩中日三国经济占整个东亚地区经济的比重较大、对世界的影响力极为重要,还在于韩中日三国间开展经济合作的难度较大。中国学者大多认为,由于历史问题、领土纷争、政治制度差异以及区域外美国势力的干预,韩中日三国间缺乏信任。而这一系列的因素正是阻碍东亚一体化建设进程的障碍。本文认为,欧洲整合的历史经验即新功能主义理论,值得东亚地区学习与借鉴。韩中日整合的示范作用,势必外溢到整个东亚地区,进而带动区域一体化进程,从而最终实现"东亚共同体"的目标。     

略论中日关系中的能源因素

能源因素是影响中日关系的重要变量.20世纪以来,中日间的能源关系大致历经了两个阶段:日本帝国主义大肆掠夺中国能源时期和新中国成立之后中日间平等互利的能源合作时期.后冷战时期,随着国际格局的演变,日本新保守主义的抬头,中日之间在能源安全领域的竞争日趋激烈.积极倡导中日间能源领域的合作不仅有助于改善两国关系,而且对维护东亚稳定具有重要意义.     

中韩关系发展现状及展望

目前中韩关系处于两国建交以来的历史最好时期。但是由于历史和现实的原因,中韩关系仍将面临诸多挑战,如韩美同盟的存在以及中韩对朝鲜政策的差异等因素都影响和制约了中韩两国政治安全关系的进一步深化。此外,中韩两国间存在的经贸问题、韩国政党政治和媒体干扰、两国人文交往问题,以及潜在的历史及领土问题等都是将来中韩关系发展所面临的主要障碍。鉴于此,中韩两国应该着眼长远,从地区和国际战略的高度为中韩关系赋予更新的战略内涵;同时,两国政府应该积极沟通,加强战略协调,可在区域合作的框架下进一步加强中韩关系,并引导积极的社会舆论。     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

The Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship as History

This article aims to analyze why negotiations for the Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship were extended for a longer period than expected. Treaty negotiations were protracted largely due to a backlash against the Normalization of Sino-Japanese relations in 1972. Moreover Japan’s diplomacy against China was entwined with political factional strife in the Liberal Democratic Party. Premier Takeo Fukuda’s diplomatic guidance was solid and steady. He created an agreement within the party over time by rejecting an early political settlement that Premier Kakuei Tanaka did in 1972. He also addressed the territorial issue calmly, and steadily advanced negotiations for the treaty. As a result, the Fukuda administration successfully achieved the Japan-China Treaty. Conclusion of the Treaty by Fukuda, who had strong ties with the pro-Taiwan camp, brought an end to the conflict over policy towards China within the LDP.